| 129 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-07-03 |
| 130 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the latest GDPNow estimate for Q2 2026 as of June 15, 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-06-16 |
| 79 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the average EPP seat share across EU national parliaments on August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-08-11 |
| 128 |
closed |
date |
When will AGSI first show EU aggregate gas storage fill level at or above 70.0% in 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-08-12 |
| 127 |
closed |
discrete |
How many countries will newly restrict Polymarket by August 1, 2026? |
2026-04-25 |
2026-08-01 |
| 125 |
closed |
discrete |
How many U.S. jurisdictions will CDC classify as Moderate, High, or Very High for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral activity in the August 7, 2026 update? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-07 |
| 126 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-06-01 |
| 124 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-05-08 |
| 123 |
closed |
date |
When will the United States gain physical access to Iran's "nuclear dust" stockpile? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-13 |
| 122 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the estimated monthly revenue (in millions USD) of Supercell's highest-grossing game in June 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-07-15 |
| 121 |
closed |
numeric |
Price of Bitcoin on August 11? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-11 |
| 120 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which company has the best AI model at the end of April 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-04-30 |
| 119 |
closed |
date |
When will the Supreme Court issue its decision in Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312)? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 118 |
closed |
date |
When will U.S. initial unemployment claims reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-08-12 |
| 116 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the average annualized funding rate for Anthropic on Ventuals in June 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-07-30 |
| 117 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the YTD vs. 2025 change for Petroleum and Petroleum Products carloads in the AAR weekly report for the week ending June 27, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-07-02 |
| 113 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the lower bound of the FOMC’s fed funds target range following its June 16–17, 2026 meeting? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-06-17 |
| 114 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana on May 16, 2026? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-05-30 |
| 115 |
closed |
date |
When will the next in-person summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping begin? |
2026-04-24 |
2026-05-18 |
| 102 |
closed |
discrete |
How many signatories will PRI list on August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 112 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 109 |
closed |
date |
When will the first IEEPA tariff refund payment be received by an importer? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 106 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
How escalatory will U.S. ground operations in Iran be before Aug 12? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 107 |
closed |
date |
When will PortWatch first record at least 200 weekly transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 104 |
closed |
date |
When will SpaceX announce the exercise of its option to acquire Cursor? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 105 |
closed |
date |
On what date will Drewry’s World Container Index first fall below $2,000 per 40-foot container after 2026-04-23? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 100 |
closed |
date |
On what date will OpenAI first publicly report that Codex has more than 8 million weekly developers? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 101 |
closed |
discrete |
How many PLA aircraft sorties will Taiwan’s MND report as crossing the Taiwan Strait median line on the busiest 24-hour reporting period from April 25 to August 10, 2026? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 103 |
closed |
discrete |
How many times will "Wong Kim Ark" be referenced in the Supreme Court opinion document in Trump v. Barbara? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 98 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the net positions of Non-Commercials in S&P 500 E-Mini Futures |
2026-04-23 |
2026-07-31 |
| 99 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the NVD Dashboard first show fewer than 2,000 CVEs in “Awaiting Enrichment”? |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-12 |
| 95 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which of these sector ETFs will rise the most |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-11 |
| 96 |
closed |
discrete |
How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map. |
2026-04-23 |
2026-08-08 |
| 97 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the Net positions of Small Traders in S&P 500 E-Mini Futures |
2026-04-23 |
2026-07-31 |
| 94 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
What will be the result of Achieve Life Science's cytisinicline PDUFA |
2026-04-23 |
2026-06-20 |
| 86 |
closed |
discrete |
What hazard ratio will be reported for the CARDIO-TTRansform secondary endpoint in patients treated with tafamidis at baseline? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 91 |
closed |
numeric |
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-05-30 |
| 87 |
closed |
numeric |
What will the London Metal Exchange (LME) official 3-month copper price be on July 1, 2026, in USD per metric tonne? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-02 |
| 88 |
closed |
date |
By what date will the first publicly released model score above 70% on SWE-Bench Pro (Public Dataset)? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 89 |
closed |
date |
When will the FAA publish the Part 108 (BVLOS) drone operations final rule in the Federal Register? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-01 |
| 81 |
closed |
date |
On what date will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) next publicly agree to a pause or end to their conflict? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 82 |
closed |
discrete |
What will euro area GDP growth be, q/q, in Eurostat’s flash estimate for 2026 Q2? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-03 |
| 85 |
closed |
numeric |
How many million net barrels of crude oil will be drawn from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during May 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-06-01 |
| 29 |
closed |
date |
When will Cuba experience a regime change? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 31 |
annulled |
multiple_choice |
Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 32 |
closed |
discrete |
How many United States ships will Iran successfully attack in the Strait of Hormuz before August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 24 |
closed |
date |
When will the U.S. government announce they will receive monetary assistance from Elon Musk? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 28 |
closed |
date |
When will it be officially announced that Donald Trump will meet with Kim Jong Un? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |
| 80 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
Which pair of candidates will advance from the June 2, 2026 California gubernatorial primary to the general election ballot on November 3, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-01 |
| 69 |
closed |
discrete |
How many LLM entries on the BALROG leaderboard will have a progress score of at least 60.0% on August 4, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-04 |
| 76 |
closed |
numeric |
What will be the top verified score for a publicly-available LLM on Humanity's Last Exam on July 1 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-01 |
| 77 |
closed |
discrete |
What hazard ratio will Novartis first report for the primary endpoint in the Lp(a) HORIZON clinical trial? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 73 |
annulled |
discrete |
What will be the maximum number of US troops deployed on Iranian territory during May 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-31 |
| 74 |
closed |
multiple_choice |
What will Biogen’s first public top-line statement about the Phase 2 CELIA trial be by August 12, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-11 |
| 75 |
closed |
discrete |
What will be the total number of transit calls PortWatch records through the Strait of Hormuz for the period April 27–May 3, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-05-03 |
| 70 |
closed |
numeric |
What will NVIDIA's TTM revenue be at the end of Q1 FY2027? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-07-31 |
| 71 |
closed |
discrete |
What global Q2 2026 sales will Eli Lilly report for Foundayo (orforglipron)? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-10 |
| 72 |
closed |
discrete |
How many local councillor seats will the Green Party win in the May 2026 London local elections? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-05-15 |
| 67 |
closed |
discrete |
How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-04 |
| 68 |
closed |
date |
When will the next Supreme Court Justice announce their retirement? |
2026-04-22 |
2026-08-12 |