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| Figure/Metric | Value | Source | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDPSR Dry Whey Price (Week Ending June 20, 2026) | 64.77 cents/lb | USDA AMS | Most recent official benchmark for the forecast series. |
| CME Dry Whey Spot Price (June 26, 2026) | 68.50 cents/lb | CME Group | Indicates high near-term tightness in the physical spot market. |
| July 2026 Dry Whey Futures | 64.50 cents/lb | CME Group | Market consensus for contract delivery during the target month. |
| August 2026 Dry Whey Futures | 67.00 cents/lb | CME Group | Signals expectations of continued price firmness into late summer. |
| USDA ERS 2026 Average Price Forecast | 66.00 cents/lb | USDA ERS | Government outlook supporting a mid-60s price regime. |
| US Dry Whey Production (April 2026) | 76.9M lbs (+7.8% YoY) | USDA NASS | Shows rising supply capacity despite high protein diversion. |
The pricing of US Dry Whey (Extra Grade) is inherently linked to the global dairy cycle and, increasingly, the specialization of the protein market. Historically, dry whey was treated as a low-value byproduct of cheesemaking. However, the last decade has seen a shift as technology for ultrafiltration allowed processors to create high-protein concentrates (WPC) and isolates (WPI). A major historical precedent for current conditions was the 2021-2022 dairy boom, where supply chain disruptions and a global ‘protein craze’ pushed prices higher. In early 2026, the market entered what analysts call a ‘perfect storm.’ Specifically, between May and June 2026, the NDPSR price rose from 63.75 to 64.77 cents. This period is also defined by the rapid adoption of GLP-1 medications, which medical professionals estimate has increased protein demand significantly to mitigate muscle loss during weight reduction. Simultaneously, the US dairy industry is managing an H5N1 outbreak which, by late 2025, had affected over 700 herds, adding a layer of supply-side uncertainty that historically leads to price volatility in dairy commodities.
My forecast for the week ending July 25, 2026, is primarily anchored by the most recent official data from the USDA National Dairy Products Sales Report (NDPSR). As of the week ending June 20, 2026, the price was 64.77 cents per pound. Analysis of the preceding four weeks (May 23 to June 20) shows a steady but moderate climb from 63.75 cents, averaging a weekly increase of approximately 0.25 cents. Extrapolating this trend over the five-week gap to the target date results in a baseline estimate of approximately 66.02 cents per pound. This baseline is reinforced by the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) June 2026 forecast, which set the annual average price at 66.0 cents per pound.
The forecast also incorporates market signals from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). While the CME spot price for dry whey reached a higher level of 68.50 cents per pound on June 26, 2026, the NDPSR typically lags spot prices because it reflects a weighted average of actual sales, many of which are conducted under older contracts. The futures market specifically for July 2026 settled at 64.50 cents per pound, suggesting that while spot markets are tight, the broader commercial volume is transacting at slightly lower levels. August 2026 futures at 67.00 cents per pound indicate that the market expects price appreciation to continue into late summer.
I have weighted the structural “protein-driven demand shock” heavily in this analysis. The rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medications—used by an estimated 12% of US adults—has created a paradigm shift where processors prioritize diverting raw liquid whey into high-value derivatives like WPC 80 and WPI. These products have seen historic price surges (up to 250% year-over-year). While this diversion constrains the supply of standard Extra Grade dry whey, helping to maintain a price floor, the simultaneous 7.8% year-over-year increase in dry whey production and a 2.4% rise in total milk production serve as moderating factors.
Consequently, the most likely path is a sustained, gradual rise toward the 66-cent mark, rather than an explosive spike or a sharp reversal. The 50% HDI of 64.35 to 67.67 reflects the historical volatility of this commodity, where a few large sales can shift the weekly weighted average by 1-2 cents. The upside risk (represented by the 80% HDI reaching 69.60) captures the possibility that the extreme tightness in the spot market (68.50 cents) could transmit more rapidly into mandatory reporting if suppliers exhaust their lower-priced contract volumes earlier than anticipated.
The question asks for a short‑horizon forecast of the USDA AMS NDPSR Dry Whey, Extra Grade weighted‑average weekly price for the week ending 25 Jul 2026 (first published 29 Jul 2026). Forecasters agreed the strongest anchor is the latest first‑published NDPSR print of 64.77 cents/lb and several recent weeks clustered tightly around 64–65, so persistence should dominate over this four‑week horizon. A simple time‑series extrapolation centers a mechanical baseline slightly lower (around 63.3 cents) with modest volatility, while forecasters modestly widen and skew the distribution upward because late‑June CME spot prints were firmer (~68 cents) even though spot volume was thin and July futures traded near ~64.5. Fundamental signals are mixed: ample milk and dry‑whey production/stocks cap upside, but diversion into tight WPC/WPI markets and strong exports provide upside support. All teams therefore center forecasts in the mid‑60s (mid‑64s), assign moderate uncertainty around that band, and place only very small explicit probability on extreme moves outside roughly the 50–85 cents/lb range over the short horizon.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
Time to resolution is short (about 4 weeks from 2026-06-27 to the week ending 2026-07-25), so the best anchor is the most recent NDPSR Extra Grade dry whey price near 64.8 cents/lb (week ending 2026-06-20) plus near-term market signals.
Across analysts, the central tendency is tightly clustered around 65–66 cents/lb, supported by: (i) recent NDPSR stability in the mid-60s, and (ii) CME dry whey futures indicating roughly flat July averages but a higher August, implying some chance of late-July firming. I agree with Forecasters 1/3/4 on the center (mid-60s), but think Forecasters 1 and especially 4 are somewhat overconfident: while week-to-week moves are often small, multi-week moves of several cents have occurred earlier in 2026, so the tails should be wider than a ~±2 cents 90% interval.
Forecaster 2’s distribution looks too wide for a 4-week horizon (e.g., a high-70s outcome would likely require a sharp, unusual shock), but it usefully reminds us that commodity prices can jump more than linear extrapolation suggests. I therefore keep the median near 65.6, allow modest upside skew (late-July could be slightly firmer than the July average), and widen tails to cover plausible multi-week swings without putting meaningful mass near the 50/85 bounds.
An amateur forecast would likely (a) simply reuse the latest NDPSR print (~64.8) as the forecast, or (b) anchor on the higher CME spot price and overshoot. My forecast instead triangulates: latest NDPSR level (primary resolution source), the futures curve (forward-looking constraint), and realistic short-horizon volatility (avoiding the overconfidence seen in the narrowest analyst distributions while not overreacting into extreme tails). I’m moderately confident this is better-calibrated than a single-point or overly tight extrapolation.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the dominant reasoning pattern is to anchor the late-July dry whey price to the latest market and USDA signals, then adjust for the lag in the NDPSR series.
The collective view is that US dry whey prices for the week ending 25 July 2026 are likely to be in the high-60s cents per pound, supported by strong whey-protein demand and a likely lagged convergence from the current CME spot market toward NDPSR.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, there is strong consensus that US dry whey prices for the week ending 25 July 2026 will remain in the mid-60s cents/lb range, with only modest movement from late-June levels.
Overall, the forecasts describe a market that is stable to mildly weaker, with dry whey likely to stay close to current levels, centered around the mid-60s cents per pound, as modest demand support is balanced by ample milk supply and futures signaling a slight pullback.
— Iteration 3 — The forecasts rely on two main anchors: the latest spot/CME dry whey pricing near the target week, and the tendency of the USDA’s NDPSR series to lag or smooth spot-market moves because it is volume-weighted and reflects actual transaction mix. Some reasoning places more weight on the exact-week CME Extra Grade average of about 54.25¢/lb, then adds a modest premium because NDPSR often prints a bit above a sharp spot decline. Other reasoning leans more heavily on late-June spot quotes in the low-to-high 60s, treating them as the best near-term signal and implying a higher July print.
Across the forecasts, the fundamental backdrop is broadly supportive: strong demand for whey proteins, tight inventories, and seasonal summer declines in milk production are expected to keep whey supplies constrained. This supports prices staying elevated rather than reverting sharply lower.
The main disagreement is about magnitude, not direction. One view expects a result in the high-50s, closer to the recent CME average with only a modest NDPSR lag premium. The other expects the official price to track spot more closely and land in the mid-60s. All of the reasoning allows for substantial uncertainty around the exact print because of report lag, contract timing, basis differences, and the possibility of volatile market moves or reporting quirks.
Here is a synthesis of the key qualitative reasoning shared across the forecasting rationales:
The Spot-to-NDPSR Lag Mechanism A central factor in forecasting the National Dairy Products Sales Report (NDPSR) price is its structural lag. The NDPSR surveys completed wholesale shipments, including contracts priced up to a month in advance. Because the current CME cash spot market is trading at a notable premium to recent NDPSR prints, there is a strong gravitational pull upward. As older, cheaper contracts roll off, the higher spot prices are expected to steadily filter into the NDPSR survey by the late-July target date.
Supply Constraints and Structural Diversion Fundamental supply dynamics are heavily skewed toward maintaining a firm price floor, driven by two main factors:
Global Arbitrage and Robust Export Demand U.S. dry whey is currently trading at a significant discount compared to European sweet whey powder. This wide spread makes U.S. whey highly competitive globally, fueling robust export demand—particularly from China for swine feed. This persistent global arbitrage drains domestic inventories and acts as a strong upward catalyst, ensuring that excess supply is quickly cleared.
Futures Market Skepticism and Downside Risks Despite the bullish spot market and structural tailwinds, there are mitigating factors keeping forecasts grounded:
Question: What will the US dry whey price be for the week ending 25 July 2026? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
The research summarizes that late‑June 2026 spot dry whey prices have risen into the mid‑to‑high 60s cents/lb (NDPSR 64.8¢/lb for week ending June 20; average/close ~68.1–68.5¢/lb the week of June 22–26), with CME cash/futures trading in the roughly $0.6425–$0.67/lb range. Price action shows recovery from a March low (~63¢/lb) and high volatility over 12–18 months, but typically modest week‑to‑week moves (fractions to a few cents). The brief treats the June 26 spot (68.5¢/lb) as the primary anchor for a four‑week forecast to July 25.
Key supply/demand drivers cited: US milk and dry‑whey production are up year‑over‑year, but many manufacturers are deliberately limiting dry‑whey output to prioritize much higher‑priced WPC/WPI (which have surged multiple‑hundreds percent), creating a constrained dry‑whey supply; widespread use of GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs is boosting overall whey‑protein demand and may cause substitution toward commodity dry whey. Seasonal factors (peak milk season in summer vs. heat stress risk) are ambiguous near July 25. The research notes no active prediction‑market liquidity for dry whey, so CME futures are the main market signal. Its baseline conclusion: use 68.5¢/lb as an anchor, expect the July 25 price most likely in the 65–70¢/lb band with a broader ±5¢ interval (≈63.5–73.5¢/lb), and key uncertainties include producer allocation to higher‑value proteins, substitution effects, weather, export flows, and NDPSR revisions.
Sources used (as named in the brief; no explicit URLs were provided in the research): NDPSR (USDA National Dairy Products Sales Report), CME Group (CME cash/futures data), company and industry reporting on WPC/WPI prices and capacity (Glanbia, Tirlán, Idaho Milk Products), market/news sources on GLP‑1 impacts, export data references, and searches of prediction‑market platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Metaculus).
Most Recent Prices:
The market has shown upward momentum in late June, rising approximately 4 cents from mid-June levels.
The commodity has exhibited high volatility, with 45-50% swings occurring within 12-18 month periods. However, week-to-week changes are typically modest (0.4-4 cents based on recent data).
Manufacturers are actively limiting dry whey production to focus on higher-value products [12]. The extreme shortage and price explosion in whey protein concentrates (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI) is creating powerful incentives to divert capacity:
This suggests that even with rising milk production, dry whey supply growth may be constrained by producers’ strategic shift toward premium products.
The market for whey protein has been transformed by widespread adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss medications (used by 12% of US population) [2], which require high protein intake to preserve muscle mass. This is creating:
Limited July-specific historical data available, but general dairy seasonality suggests:
July 25 falls at the transition point between Q2 and Q3, suggesting prices may be stabilizing from Q2’s milk production peak but not yet showing Q3 strengthening.
New capacity not coming online until 2027 (Glanbia, Tirlán, Idaho Milk Products investments totaling $11 billion) [2], meaning supply constraints will persist through your forecast period.
No prediction markets found for dry whey commodity prices on major platforms:
CME futures provide the only market-based forward pricing, with July contracts in the $0.64-0.67 range as of late June [12].
Baseline estimate: The current price of 68.5 cents/lb (June 26) provides a strong anchor for a 4-week-ahead forecast.
Directional factors:
Historical volatility suggests the July 25 price will likely fall within a ±5 cent range of current levels (roughly 63.5-73.5 cents/lb), with the most probable outcome in the 65-70 cent range given recent trading patterns.
No prediction market liquidity exists to validate or challenge this view, limiting external calibration opportunities. CME futures around 64-67 cents [12] suggest market participants expect some modest softening from current spot levels, possibly reflecting anticipated seasonal milk production increases.
Critical gap: Lack of July-specific historical base rates for dry whey prices. Reference class of “summer dairy commodity prices” suggests seasonal abundance may exert modest downward pressure, but ongoing structural tightness in whey protein markets could offset this.
Conditioned on the question not being annulled.
(a) Time left. About 32 days until the outcome is expected to be known: the week ends on Saturday, July 25, 2026, and the normal NDPSR release would be Wednesday, July 29, 2026.
(b) Outside view. The relevant reference class is weekly NDPSR Extra Grade dry whey prices. In 2026, official NDPSR dry whey was 70.7 cents/lb for week ending January 10, 68.6 cents/lb for week ending January 31, then declined to 64.5 cents/lb by week ending April 11. The latest official week ending June 20 is 64.8 cents/lb, with the last five reported weekly values clustered around 63.8–64.8 cents/lb. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
(c) Inside view. The strongest upward update is that CME spot dry whey is materially above NDPSR: the June 22–26 CME cash weekly average was 68.1 cents/lb, closing June 26 at 68.5 cents/lb. USDA Dairy Market News also says some manufacturers are limiting dry whey output to focus on higher whey protein concentrates, and WPC/WPI markets remain very tight, supporting dry whey via constrained whey-stream allocation. Offsetting this, milk production is higher year over year and some regional dry whey prices, especially in the West, softened in the latest week. (ams.usda.gov)
(d) Outcome if nothing changed. If the official NDPSR level simply persisted, the answer would be about 64.8 cents/lb.
(e) Outcome if the current trend continued. The official NDPSR trend from late May to June 20 is a slow rise of about 1 cent over four weeks, which points near 65.8 cents/lb for July 25; spot cash around 68 cents suggests a little upside if it feeds into reported plant sales.
(f) Experts and markets. CME dry whey futures are not aggressively bullish for July: late-June quotes show July 2026 around 64.5 cents/lb and August 2026 around 67.0 cents/lb, implying modest firmness but not a break into the 70s as the central case. (ams.usda.gov)
(g) Low-outcome scenario. A low result could occur if abundant summer milk and cheese output increase whey availability, West-region softness spreads nationally, export demand cools, and buyers resist high protein prices, causing reported NDPSR sales to clear in the mid-to-high 50s.
(h) High-outcome scenario. A high result could occur if July heat stress sharply cuts milk/components, WPC/WPI buyers pull more whey streams away from commodity dry whey, and CME spot strength forces contract/plant sales higher, pushing the NDPSR weekly average into the mid-to-high 70s.
Rationale. I anchor first on the outside-view base rate: official NDPSR dry whey has spent most of spring and early summer in the mid-60s, with the latest official value 64.8. That makes 65 the natural starting point. I then move upward because spot cash is already around 68, regional ranges are mostly mid-60s to low-70s, and the high-value whey protein shortage creates real supply discipline for commodity dry whey. I do not move all the way to 68–70 because CME futures for July remain closer to 64–65, the NDPSR is a lagged/weighted plant-sales measure rather than a spot quote, and rising milk production plus summer supply are meaningful counterweights. My median is therefore 66.2 cents/lb, with most probability between roughly 60 and 72 cents/lb, and very little mass below 50 or above 85.
Percentile 0.1: 50.2
Percentile 1: 54.0
Percentile 5: 58.0
Percentile 10: 60.0
Percentile 20: 62.4
Percentile 30: 63.9
Percentile 40: 65.1
Percentile 50: 66.2
Percentile 60: 67.2
Percentile 70: 68.3
Percentile 80: 69.8
Percentile 90: 72.2
Percentile 95: 74.4
Percentile 99: 79.0
Percentile 99.9: 84.0
Conditioning on no annulment, I accept the critic’s most important timing/mechanics point: the July dry-whey futures contract is not the same object as the week-ending July 25 NDPSR value. A July monthly settlement near 64.5¢ can coexist with a final-July weekly print somewhat higher, especially if pricing resets or broader reported sales partially catch up late in the month. The cited futures chain also has August and September higher than July, which is a real reason to move some mass from the low/mid-60s into the 66–70¢ region. (farmbucks.com)
I still think the core anchor should remain the official NDPSR series, not CME spot. The latest official NDPSR release put Extra Grade dry whey at 64.8¢/lb for the week ending June 20, up only 0.4¢ from the prior week; that is a gentle official uptrend, not a confirmed jump to the high-60s spot level. NDPSR is also a mandatory-reporting weighted-average series for qualifying manufacturers, which should dampen thin spot-market noise. (ams.usda.gov)
I also continue to discount the pure “protein boom implies dry whey spike” story. It is much more directly bullish for WPC/WPI than for commodity dry whey. The ERS June outlook is a useful tempering signal: it raised 2026 milk production expectations and revised the 2026 dry-whey price forecast slightly down to $0.660/lb, while still noting higher projected dried-whey-product exports. That combination says “mid-60s with upside,” not “imminent shortage-driven blowoff.” (ers.usda.gov)
My adjustment: raise the median modestly from 65.1 to 65.7, because the target is late July and the August-ish pricing signal matters. Keep the right tail fat enough for a catch-up/reset print around 70–72, but trim the extreme tails a bit given the short horizon and the inertia of a weekly weighted-average official series.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 49.7
Percentile 1: 53.5
Percentile 5: 58.1
Percentile 10: 60.5
Percentile 20: 62.6
Percentile 30: 63.9
Percentile 40: 64.8
Percentile 50: 65.7
Percentile 60: 66.7
Percentile 70: 68.0
Percentile 80: 69.7
Percentile 90: 72.2
Percentile 95: 75.0
Percentile 99: 80.4
Percentile 99.9: 85.2
Modal: 63.1-67.5 (65.2%) • frontier aggregate • 3m44s
Edge cases:
frontier_1 - Modal: 63.1-67.5 (78.0%)
frontier_2 - Modal: 63.1-67.5 (59.5%)
frontier_3 - Modal: 63.1-67.5 (68.0%)
frontier_4 - Modal: 63.1-67.5 (38.0%)
Status
Guidance
Revision
| Bin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Below 50 | 0.1% |
| 50-54.4 | 0.2% |
| 54.4-58.8 | 1.6% |
| 58.8-63.1 | 9.0% |
| 63.1-67.5 | 65.2% |
| 67.5-71.9 | 21.0% |
| 71.9-76.3 | 2.4% |
| 76.3-80.6 | 0.3% |
| 80.6-85 | 0.1% |
| Above 85 | 0.1% |
wooley_rhino • run 5af54a03 • $2.27 • 3m44s
Growing milk output and steady cheese production set a persistent supply baseline that limits upside.
Mandatory weekly weighted-average reporting and inventory accumulation provide a mechanical cap on observed weekly moves.
High‑value protein demand is diverting some whey streams and lends upward pressure to the basic powder price.
Contemporaneous cash trades and near‑month paper contracts coalesce around the mid‑60s and anchor market expectations.
A decisive shift toward greater fractionation and product diversion would tighten dry‑whey availability and push the series into the high‑60s.
A continued step‑up in milk output or weaker cheese yields would expand supplies and pull prices toward the low‑60s.
Weekly reporting idiosyncrasies, contract mix, and thin trade volumes can move the first‑published weekly average by several cents independent of fundamentals.
Export demand volatility and short‑run plant scheduling remain the primary residual uncertainties determining whether prices hold in the mid‑60s or break to either regime.
As of Saturday, June 27, 2026, the latest first-published NDPSR is the June 24, 2026 release for the week ending June 20, 2026: Extra Grade dry whey averaged 64.77 cents/lb. The preceding four reported weeks were 63.75, 64.24, 64.05, and 64.40 cents/lb, so the series is stable but gently firming into late June. NDPSR is weekly and subject to four weeks of revisions, which matters because this market resolves on the first-published July 29 figure. (ams.usda.gov)
The near-term physical market is supportive but not screaming shortage. In USDA Dairy Market News for the week of June 8-12, dry whey was described as steady in the Central and East and softer in the West; Central extra-grade non-hygroscopic whey was 60-71 cents/lb (mostly 61-68), East was 60-69, and CME extra-grade dry whey averaged 67.70 cents/lb for that week. USDA also notes processors are prioritizing higher-value WPC/WPI over Extra Grade dry whey, which constrains commodity whey output. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
Supply is not especially tight in an absolute sense, though it is not loose enough to crush prices either. USDA’s April 2026 Dairy Products report showed dry whey production at 76.9 million pounds, up 7.8% year over year but down 2.3% from March; end-April dry whey stocks were 61.6 million pounds, up 4.0% year over year and down 3.8% from March. At the same time, WPC production was down 11.0% year over year and WPC stocks were down 19.0%, consistent with stronger protein-market pull. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
Broader USDA outlooks point to a middling but firm market: ERS raised milk production forecasts for 2026 and noted that domestic disappearance of dry whey was down year to date versus 2025, but it also reported stronger exports and still forecast the 2026 average dry whey price at 66.0 cents/lb. That annual anchor is slightly above the latest NDPSR level, suggesting modest upside from 64.77 is more plausible than a sharp drop absent a sudden supply shock. (ers.usda.gov)
Late-July base rates argue against overreacting to seasonality alone. The comparable late-July NDPSR print was 56.2 cents/lb for the week ending July 26, 2025, and 46.05 cents/lb for the week ending July 27, 2024. But 2026 is already running much stronger than either of those years, so those are best used as regime context rather than direct analogs. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
My forecast therefore starts from the latest 64.77 print, adds a small upward drift for protein-led whey tightness and summer heat risk, and subtracts a smaller offset for higher milk/cheese supply and the softer western tone. I center the distribution around about 65.2 cents/lb, with most probability mass in the low-60s to upper-60s and a thinner right tail in case protein-market tightness spills more aggressively into commodity dry whey. (ams.usda.gov)
As of Saturday, June 27, 2026, the latest official NDPSR release is dated June 24, 2026 and reports U.S. Extra Grade dry whey at 64.77 cents/lb for the week ending June 20, 2026. The same release shows a recent five-week run of 63.75, 64.24, 64.05, 64.40, and 64.77 cents/lb, so the market has been firm but not parabolic. This is the right anchor because NDPSR is the mandatory-reporting series used for resolution, released each Wednesday for the prior Saturday-ending week, with revisions allowed to the prior four weeks but not relevant here because the question uses the first-published value. (ams.usda.gov)
Near-term market signals are modestly bullish. In USDA Dairy Market News for the week of June 22-26, 2026, CME cash dry whey averaged 68.10 cents/lb. Regional dry whey indications were also firm: East 64-69 cents/lb, Central 60-72 with a 62-68 mostly range, and West 65-76 with a 66-71 mostly range. The same report says some manufacturers are limiting dry whey output because they are prioritizing higher-protein concentrates, and it describes WPC 34% as extremely tight with buyers struggling to secure supply. On June 25, the USDA-reported dry whey futures strip was about 64.5 cents/lb for July 2026 and 67.0 cents/lb for August 2026, which points to a market expecting late-summer firmness rather than a sharp drop. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
There is, however, meaningful supply-side resistance to a big rally. USDA’s June Dairy Products report shows April 2026 U.S. human dry whey production at 75.599 million pounds, up 8.7% year over year, while end-of-month human dry whey stocks were 60.856 million pounds, up 6.7% year over year. Separately, USDA Dairy Market News summarized the June 22 Milk Production release by noting May 2026 milk production in the 24 major States was 19.8 billion pounds, up 2.4% from May 2025. ERS also raised its 2026 milk production forecast to 236.4 billion pounds. Those data argue against an extreme upside scenario. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
Demand still looks supportive enough to keep the market above the low-60s unless conditions soften materially. ERS states that skim-solids exports through April 2026 were up mainly because of higher dry skim milk and dry whey exports, and that higher export volumes are projected for cheese, butter, and dried whey products in 2026. ERS also notes an offset: domestic disappearance increased for whey protein concentrates, but dry whey domestic disappearance was down year over year through April. In its June 17, 2026 outlook, ERS revised the 2026 average dry whey price forecast slightly lower but still kept it at 66.0 cents/lb. (ers.usda.gov)
For a seasonal/base-rate check, the same part of 2025 saw NDPSR dry whey rise from 55.92 cents/lb for the week ending June 21, 2025 to 57.51 cents/lb for the week ending July 19, 2025. I do not port that move mechanically into 2026 because today’s market structure is tighter and higher-priced, but it does weakly support the idea that late July is at least as likely to be slightly firmer than late June as it is to be sharply weaker. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
Putting that together, my center is 65.8 cents/lb. The logic is: start from the current NDPSR level of 64.77; add a modest upward tilt from regional spot tone, WPC/WPI diversion, and the August futures premium; then cap the upside because milk production, whey production, and stocks are all running above year-ago levels. I therefore put most probability mass in roughly the 63-69 cents/lb zone, with thinner downside into the low 60s if supply pressure dominates and thinner upside into the low 70s if protein-pull remains unusually strong into late July. (ams.usda.gov)
As of Saturday, June 27, 2026, the latest official NDPSR available is the USDA release dated June 24, 2026, which reports the week ending June 20, 2026. The question resolves to the first-published week-ending July 25 value in the July 29, 2026 NDPSR, and USDA explicitly notes that NDPSR revises the prior four weeks, so the “as first published” clause matters. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
That latest report put U.S. Extra Grade dry whey at 64.77 cents/lb for the week ending June 20, 2026. The recent official sequence is 63.75, 64.24, 64.05, 64.40, and 64.77 cents/lb for the weeks ending May 23 through June 20, so the near-term trend has been gently upward rather than explosive. (ams.usda.gov)
Mid-June USDA Dairy Market News commentary was modestly supportive. For June 8-12, USDA described dry whey as steady in the Central and East and softer in the West; the reported ranges were 60-71 cents in the Central region, 60-69 cents in the East, and 66-78 cents in the West. A mirror of the following June 15-19 USDA report showed the top of the Central range rising to 72 cents and the East floor rising to 61 cents, while the West was unchanged; that same report also said processors continue prioritizing higher-protein whey products such as WPC and WPI. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
Fundamentals are mixed, not one-way bullish. USDA NASS reported April 2026 human dry whey production at 75.599 million pounds, up 8.7% year over year but down 2.7% from March; end-April human dry whey stocks were 60.856 million pounds, up 6.7% year over year and down 4.0% from March. Meanwhile, April 2026 human WPC production was 37.057 million pounds, down 13.9% year over year and 7.5% month over month, which is consistent with a protein complex where capacity allocation matters. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
USDA ERS’s June outlook raised 2026 milk production to 236.4 billion pounds, expects higher export volumes for dried whey products, and set the 2026 average dry whey price forecast at $0.660/lb. ERS also noted that January-April domestic disappearance increased for whey protein concentrates but declined for dry whey itself. So the macro picture supports prices staying in the mid-60s, but it does not point to an extreme commodity-whey squeeze over the next month. (ers.usda.gov)
As a short-horizon seasonal check, 2025 NDPSR dry whey moved from 55.54 cents/lb for the week ending June 28, 2025 to 56.15 cents/lb for the week ending July 26, 2025, with a mid-July peak of 57.51 cents/lb. That is a mildly upward late-June-to-late-July pattern, but not a huge one. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
My synthesis is: anchor heavily on the latest official NDPSR level (64.77), add some upward drift from the recent weekly trend and firm protein-market backdrop, but cap the upside because milk supply is expanding and USDA’s annual dry whey forecast is only 66.0 cents/lb. That yields a point forecast of 65.92 cents/lb. I encode uncertainty with a slightly right-skewed two-regime mixture: 80% weight on a 65.2-cent regime with 2.7-cent standard deviation, and 20% weight on a firmer 68.8-cent regime with 3.2-cent standard deviation. This leaves most probability mass in roughly the 62-70 cent area, with smaller tails below 60 or above 73. (ams.usda.gov)
I anchor on the latest official NDPSR path. The June 24, 2026 NDPSR, covering the week ending June 20, 2026, put U.S. Extra Grade dry whey at 64.77 cents/lb. Earlier 2026 reports show 70.68 cents/lb for the week ending January 10, 69.67 for February 7, 67.55 for March 14, 64.45 for April 11, 63.53 for May 2, and then 63.75, 64.24, 64.05, 64.40, and 64.77 for the five weeks from May 23 through June 20. My read is that the big winter/spring decline has already happened, and the market has recently stabilized in the mid-64s rather than continuing to trend sharply down. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
Near-term market tone is a little firmer than a pure extrapolation of the NDPSR series would suggest. USDA Dairy Market News said for June 8-12 that dry whey was steady in the Central and East and softer in the West; Central manufacturers were still prioritizing higher-protein concentrates over Grade A and Extra Grade whey, which limited dry whey production in some areas. USDA also reported Central dry whey mostly at 61-68 cents/lb and West mostly at 68-73 cents/lb. On the CME cash market, USDA reported a 67.70 cents/lb weekly average for the week ending June 12, and the daily CME cash close was still 67.00 cents/lb on June 25. I infer from that combination that NDPSR has decent support above the low-60s, but that it should not automatically converge all the way up to spot-CME levels. (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
Broader fundamentals are mixed. USDA ERS reported April 2026 milk production of 19.960 billion pounds, up 2.7% year over year, with the dairy herd up 190,000 head year over year. USDA/NASS’s June Dairy Products release showed April 2026 total dry whey production at 76.874 million pounds, up 7.8% from April 2025. Those are bearish supply facts. But ERS also reported that January-April 2026 domestic disappearance increased for whey protein concentrates while dry whey itself declined, and its June outlook raised 2026 export expectations partly because of higher cheese, whey, and butter shipments while still forecasting a 2026 average dry whey price of 66.0 cents/lb. That combination argues for a market that is adequately supplied overall but still supported by the protein complex. (ers.usda.gov)
Seasonality pushes me toward only a modest move between late June and late July. In 2025, NDPSR dry whey was 55.92 cents/lb for the week ending June 21, 55.54 for June 28, 56.22 for July 5, 56.71 for July 12, 57.51 for July 19, and 56.15 for July 26 - basically sideways to slightly firmer over the month, not a major trend move. As a light auxiliary signal, a market quote page showed July 2026 dry whey futures around 64.10 cents/lb on June 23; because CME dry whey futures are cash-settled to the USDA monthly weighted average price as first released, I treat that as a weak monthly anchor rather than a strong predictor of one specific weekly NDPSR print. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
My forecast therefore uses a three-scenario mixture: a 60% stable/slight-softening case centered at 64.6, a 20% bullish protein-tightness case centered at 67.8, and a 20% bearish supply/soft-demand case centered at 61.3. That gives an overall mean of 64.58 cents/lb and a median very close to 64.6 cents/lb. In words: I expect the July 25, 2026 weekly NDPSR dry whey price to land very near current mid-64 levels, with upside limited by bigger milk and whey output and western softness, but downside cushioned by continued preference for higher-protein whey streams and a CME cash market that is still above NDPSR. (ams.usda.gov)
This resolves to the USDA National Dairy Products Sales Report dry whey weighted price for the week ending Saturday, July 25, 2026, using the first-published Wednesday release that reports that week. USDA says NDPSR is released weekly by 3 p.m. ET on Wednesdays, and the latest currently available release is June 24, 2026. That release shows dry whey at $0.6477/lb for the week ending June 20, 2026, with the prior four reported weeks at $0.6375, $0.6424, $0.6405, and $0.6440. So the immediate trend into late June is mildly upward rather than collapsing. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
For same-season context, NDPSR dry whey was $0.4497/lb for the week ending July 20, 2024, and $0.5615/lb for the week ending July 26, 2025. My inference from those two July reference points plus the current late-June 2026 print is that the market has repriced materially higher for two straight years, but the year-over-year step-up is not obviously accelerating without limit. (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
Near-term market tone is still supportive. HighGround’s summary for CME spot trading during June 22-26, 2026 shows a dry whey weekly average of $0.6810/lb and a Friday settlement of $0.6850/lb. For comparison, USDA’s CME weekly recap for July 21-25, 2025 showed a dry whey weekly average of $0.5425/lb. USDA Dairy Market News also said in mid-June 2026 that dry whey demand was steady, some higher-spec products were hard to find, and manufacturers continued prioritizing higher-protein concentrates and isolates over Grade A and Extra Grade dry whey, limiting dry whey production in some areas. That combination is a real upside risk for late July. (marketing.highgrounddairy.com)
But there are meaningful caps on upside. USDA ERS raised its 2026 milk production forecast to 236.4 billion pounds and currently forecasts the 2026 average dry whey price at $0.660/lb. USDA NASS also reported April 2026 dry whey production up 7.8% year over year, while whey protein concentrate production was down 11.0%. ERS further notes that exports of dry whey products were higher through April 2026, but domestic disappearance increased for whey protein concentrates while dry whey declined year over year. I read that as evidence that derivative tightness supports dry whey, but does not guarantee a runaway spike in the basic commodity powder. (ers.usda.gov)
Putting those pieces together, my base case is modest firming from the latest NDPSR print into the week ending July 25, 2026, not a dramatic break higher or lower. I put most weight on a result in the mid-60s cents per pound, with upside risk if spot strength and protein-stream diversion keep constraining dry whey availability, and downside risk if rising milk output and broader dairy softness dominate. The encoded distribution is slightly right-skewed and centers around about 66.3 cents/lb.