On what observation date will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll first report Pauline Hanson’s One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0%?

• My median prediction for when the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll will first report Pauline Hanson’s One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0% is 1st June 2026.
• This prediction is based on the Roy Morgan poll for the survey period ending 31st May 2026, which recorded an exactly 27.0% primary vote for the party.
• The surge in support followed the 12th May 2026 Federal Budget, which introduced controversial changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.
• Economic stressors, including interest rates at 4.35% and a fuel crisis that saw petrol prices peak earlier in the year, acted as primary drivers for voter defection from major parties.
• A Liberal leadership spill in February 2026 and the subsequent loss of the seat of Farrer to One Nation in a May by-election created the political momentum necessary for this polling breakthrough.
• Corroborating data from other pollsters like RedBridge (31%) and Essential (28%) in late May confirms the validity of the 27% figure.

Key figures

Historical context

• Pauline Hanson’s One Nation reached its previous historical peak in the late 1990s, notably during the 1998 Queensland state election where it won nearly 23% of the vote.
• Traditionally, minor parties in Australia (such as the Democrats or the Greens) have struggled to maintain primary support above 15-20% at a federal level.
• The 2022 and 2025 federal elections saw a progressive ‘hollowing out’ of the primary vote for major parties, dropping from a combined 80%+ to significantly lower levels, creating the ceiling for this 2026 surge.
• The Farrer by-election (9th May 2026) was the first time One Nation captured a federal lower house seat from the Liberal Party, providing a critical psychological breakthrough for the party’s supporters.
• Roy Morgan Research has a long history of tracking ‘Voting Intention’ in Australia, typically utilizing weekly samples that provide higher volatility than monthly trackers like Newspoll or Resolve.

Tailwinds

• Intense voter dissatisfaction with the 2026-27 Federal Budget’s changes to residential property taxes (negative gearing).
• Continued economic pressure from the global energy crisis following the Strait of Hormuz closure in March 2026.
• The ‘bandwagon effect’ following One Nation’s win in the Farrer by-election, which legitimized the party as a viable alternative to the Coalition.
• High ‘wrong direction’ sentiment (60.5% - 63.0%) across all major polling groups in May 2026.
• Historically low approval ratings for both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (-19) and Liberal Leader Angus Taylor (-5).

Headwinds

• Historical resilience of the major party ‘two-party preferred’ (2PP) system, which often sees minor party support soften as a general election approaches.
• Potential for the Coalition under Angus Taylor to pivot toward more populist economic policies to reclaim ‘Blue Collar’ voters from One Nation.
• Possible stabilization of fuel prices or a pause in interest rate hikes by the RBA, which would reduce the ‘protest vote’ sentiment.
• Methodological differences between Roy Morgan’s online weekly series and other higher-reporting modes like SMS, which might have initially overstated the speed of the surge.

Detailed reasoning

My analysis of the provided polling data and political context confirms that the specific threshold of 27.0% primary support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (ONP) was first met by a regular weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll for the survey period ending 31st May 2026.

The progression of polling support in May 2026 was rapid and linked to specific catalysts. In the first week of May (4th–10th), ONP support stood at 22.0%. Following the delivery of the Federal Budget on 12th May, support rose to 24.5% (11th–17th May) and then to 25.5% (18th–24th May). The final survey of the month, covering 25th–31st May, recorded exactly 27.0% with a sample size of 1,542. While a ‘Snap SMS’ poll on 13th–14th May showed a higher figure of 32.0%, the resolution criteria specifically prioritize the regular weekly series.

The weighting of this forecast relies heavily on the documented sequence of Roy Morgan’s weekly data. Other pollsters, such as RedBridge and Essential, reported figures at or above 27% during the same late-May window, which provides high-confidence corroboration of the trend, even though they do not trigger the resolution. The shift is fundamentally attributed to a “perfect storm” of political and economic factors:

1. The Liberal Leadership Spill: The replacement of Sussan Ley with Angus Taylor in February 2026 created initial instability in the Coalition’s base.
2. The 2026-27 Federal Budget: Measures involving negative gearing and capital gains tax were poorly received, with approximately 44% of voters feeling the budget would make them worse off.
3. Economic Crisis: High petrol prices (peaking at $1.74/L in March) and rising interest rates (reaching 4.35% in May) eroded confidence in the major parties.
4. By-election Momentum: The ONP victory in the Farrer by-election on 9th May provided a “proof of concept” for voters, suggesting the party could win lower house seats.

Given that the qualifying poll’s survey period ended on 31st May 2026, and my analysis is being finalized on 1st June 2026, the event has effectively occurred. The median prediction of 1st June 2026 reflects the immediate recognition and publication of this historical polling milestone. This surge represents one of the highest primary vote figures for a minor party in modern Australian political history, momentarily placing One Nation ahead of the Coalition in some datasets.

Key uncertainties

• The exact publication time of the Roy Morgan poll versus the survey end date (the question resolves on the survey end date).
• Whether Roy Morgan might have issued a ‘multi-week’ combined report which could have altered the specific data point for the final week of May.
• Potential for a late revision of the headline figure by Roy Morgan prior to official website archiving.
• The impact of sample size (1,542) on the margin of error (approx +/- 2.5%), which could have seen the figure fluctuate slightly around the 27.0% mark.

Conclusion

• The target primary vote threshold of 27.0% was reached in the Roy Morgan weekly poll ending 31st May 2026, driven by extreme economic dissatisfaction.
• This event signals a historic shift in Australian politics, where a minor party has effectively challenged the primary vote dominance of the two major parties.
• Future analysis should focus on whether this support is “sticky” or a temporary protest vote ahead of the next federal election.

Question: will a Roy Morgan weekly Federal Voting Intention release published after June 1, 2026 report One Nation ≥27% (survey end date is the resolving date)? The June 1 Roy Morgan release already printed 27.0% for the May 25–31 period, but most forecasters treat that observation as administratively ambiguous/excluded because the market requires polls published after June 1 while the survey end date was May 31; if excluded, the first likely eligible survey end date is June 7. Roy Morgan’s official weekly series has climbed 22.0 → 24.5 → 25.5 → 27.0 over four weeks, and independent non-resolving polls (RedBridge/Essential) plus the Farrer by-election corroborate an elevated One Nation, supporting persistence. Nonetheless, sampling/rounding noise (Roy Morgan’s reporting increments and estimated SEs) and historical precedent for rapid surges then fades mean a one-week dip below 27.0 is plausible, with later re-crossings possible. Forecasters largely agree to condition only on standard Roy Morgan weekly releases and to monitor publication timing and methodology; most assign high probability to an early qualifying poll (modal date June 7) and only a modest tail probability—reported estimates ranged roughly from ~7–8% up to ~10%—that no qualifying poll appears by the Aug 12, 2026 deadline.

Forecast and Reasoning

Forecast: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 21:58:37 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-08 02:27:46 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-15 04:08:54 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-06-23 03:01:36 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-07-15 17:47:36 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-08-10 05:49:17 UTC

Forecast Reasoning

Key dynamics are (i) Roy Morgan’s weekly cadence (7‑day survey periods, typically ending Sunday, published shortly after), (ii) how close One Nation already is to the 27% threshold, and (iii) the possibility of either short-term mean reversion or methodology noise that keeps the weekly series below 27% for many consecutive weeks.

Two analysts independently report that the most recent weekly Roy Morgan poll published on 2026-06-01 (survey period ending 2026-05-31) had One Nation at exactly 27.0%. That poll does not qualify because the question requires publication strictly after 2026-06-01, but it materially increases the near-term hazard that the next eligible weekly poll (most likely survey ending 2026-06-07) will also print ≥27%. At the same time, another analyst’s research suggests the latest confirmed weekly reading might still be 25.5% (May 18–24), so I keep meaningful probability on later weeks and a nontrivial chance of never seeing ≥27% again before the cutoff.

Given the above, I center the distribution on the first two eligible weekly end-dates (2026-06-07 and 2026-06-14), but I preserve a ~10% open-after tail (no qualifying poll published by 2026-08-12T12:00Z), expressed via percentiles placed strictly after the upper bound. The last plausible in-window weekly survey end date is 2026-08-09 (if published by ~2026-08-10).

An amateur forecast is likely to (a) accidentally count the 2026-06-01 publication despite the ‘published after June 1’ rule, (b) ignore Roy Morgan’s weekly end-date cadence and the fact the resolved date is the survey period end date (not publication date), and/or (c) anchor too hard to the 2026-08-12 bound by stacking percentiles at the bound instead of using past-bound dates to represent ‘no qualifying poll in time’. My forecast explicitly uses the weekly cadence, treats 2026-06-07 as the first realistic eligible end date, and encodes a realistic open-after probability by placing upper percentiles strictly past 2026-08-12. Confidence: moderate (close-to-threshold, noisy weekly series).

Forecast rationale (numeric):

— Iteration 1 — Overall, the forecasts converge on an early-June resolution, with the most likely first qualifying observation date around 7 June 2026, and a meaningful fallback possibility on 14 June 2026 if the threshold is not reached immediately.

Key reasoning patterns

• Strong recent upward momentum: Roy Morgan’s latest verified weekly result was 25.5% for the week ending 24 May 2026, and One Nation had been rising for several weeks.
• Threshold is close: At 25.5%, the party is only about 1.5 points below the 27.0% cutoff, so a single weekly swing or normal sampling noise could push it over.
• Timing matters: Some discussion centers on a possible 27% reading for the 25–31 May period, but because the question requires a poll published after 1 June, the first clearly eligible observation is expected in the 1–7 June wave.
• Discrete weekly structure: Roy Morgan’s observations are tied to weekly end dates, so the likely resolution dates cluster on Sunday observation dates such as 7 June and, if needed, 14 June.
• Uncertainty remains: There is allowance for the possibility that the surge fades, stalls, or proves to be noise, which is why some probability is assigned to later dates and a small tail extends toward the deadline in August.

Areas of consensus

• Early June is the center of gravity for the first 27%+ report.
• 7 June 2026 is the single most likely first observation date.
• If not then, 14 June 2026 is the next most plausible date.

Main source of disagreement

• The main uncertainty is whether the first qualifying poll will hit 27% immediately in the first post-1 June wave or need one more week of momentum.

— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is that One Nation is already close to the 27.0% threshold in Roy Morgan’s weekly series, with the most recent confirmed result at about 25.5% and a recent upward trend. That makes a near-term crossover plausible, especially in the first eligible June reporting weeks.

Main factors driving the forecasts

• Current level is close to the cutoff: The latest Roy Morgan reading is only about 1.5 points below 27%.
• Upward momentum: Recent weekly movement is positive, suggesting continued gains are possible.
• External corroboration: Other polls showing One Nation in the high-20s to low-30s reinforce the idea that Roy Morgan could soon catch up.
• Timing constraints: The first June release is treated as excluded under the stated rule, so the earliest plausible qualifying survey end date is around 2026-06-07, with 2026-06-14 also seen as a strong candidate.

Areas of agreement

• The forecasts broadly agree the threshold is likely to be reached relatively soon, not far into the future.
• Most weight is placed on early-to-mid June 2026.
• All models allow for some delay if Roy Morgan’s series lags other polling or if support plateaus just below 27%.

Main disagreement / uncertainty

• The main difference is how fast the crossover happens:
  • Some see the first qualifying poll as likely in the June 7–14 window.
  • A more cautious view puts the median later, around mid-July, reflecting the risk that the threshold is not hit immediately.
• There is also a meaningful tail risk that no weekly poll in the window reaches 27%, pushing resolution later or outside the main forecast window.

Overall synthesis

The collective view is that One Nation’s Roy Morgan weekly polling is close enough to 27% that the first qualifying observation is most likely in early to mid-June 2026, with June 7 the earliest plausible survey end date and June 14 the next most likely near-term point. The main uncertainty is whether the recent surge continues or flattens before crossing the threshold.

— Iteration 3 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is quite consistent:

Main factors driving the assessment

• The latest poll is already very close to the threshold: Roy Morgan’s most recent One Nation primary vote is cited at 25.5%, only 1.5 points below 27.0%.
• Weekly polling volatility matters a lot: Given Roy Morgan’s sample size and normal sampling error, several models treat a single-week jump to 27% as plausible even without a huge underlying change.
• Recent trend is upward: One Nation is described as having moved from roughly 22% to 25.5% over a few weeks, suggesting momentum rather than a one-off spike.
• Underlying political context supports the rise: One rationale explicitly points to post-budget dissatisfaction as a likely driver of the surge.
• There is still meaningful uncertainty: All models include a substantial chance that support plateaus or fades, meaning the threshold could fail to be reached before the deadline.

Areas of consensus

• If 27% is reached, it is most likely soon — generally June or early July.
• The latest poll is close enough that only modest movement or ordinary variance is needed.
• A non-trivial “no resolution by deadline” outcome remains possible, so the distribution has a long tail beyond the cutoff date.

Areas of disagreement

• Probability of reaching 27% before the August deadline varies somewhat:
  • One model is more optimistic, around 70%.
  • Another is somewhat lower, around 55–60%.
• Timing differs slightly:
  • Some place the center of mass in early July.
  • Others lean mid-July.
• The exact shape of the tail differs, but all allow for a meaningful chance that the result is not achieved by Aug. 12.

Overall synthesis

The forecasts treat One Nation’s path to 27% as a near-term but uncertain continuation of a recent upswing. The most important signals are the combination of high current support, recent upward momentum, and ordinary polling noise, which together make an early crossing plausible. At the same time, because 27% is a relatively high national primary vote and the recent surge may not persist, the models retain a significant chance that the threshold is not reached before the deadline.

Polling Baseline and Methodology Forecasters broadly agree that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is currently experiencing significant polling momentum, fueled by voter dissatisfaction over the recent Federal Budget, leadership changes, and broader economic pressures. The most recent tracking poll, published on the exact cutoff date, already reached the target threshold. Furthermore, competing polling firms indicate that true underlying support for the party may currently be even higher. Rationales highlight that Roy Morgan’s specific methodology—which explicitly prompts voters for minor parties—historically overestimates support for right-wing populist movements, making an imminent qualifying result highly likely.

Resolution Mechanics The question’s strict criteria require a poll published after the early June cutoff, meaning the most recent survey does not qualify. Forecasters note that the pollster operates on a rigid weekly schedule where survey periods conclude on Sundays and are published on Mondays. Consequently, the reasoning heavily targets the first few eligible Sunday survey end dates immediately following the cutoff date. Natural statistical variance (margin of error) means that even if true support dips slightly, a qualifying headline figure remains highly probable in the immediate upcoming cycles.

Sustaining Catalysts vs. Downside Risks Short-term momentum is expected to be sustained by ongoing cost-of-living grievances, with upcoming central bank rate decisions and inflation data releases acting as key catalysts to keep protest-vote sentiment elevated. However, forecasters weigh this against the historical volatility of minor party insurgencies. Rapid polling surges often experience sharp mean reversion due to major parties co-opting populist messaging or minor parties suffering internal structural fractures. If the late-May polling represented a short-term apex, forecasters recognize a notable tail risk that support permanently decays before triggering a qualifying poll.

SUMMARY

Question: On what observation date will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll first report Pauline Hanson’s One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0%? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 15:59:59 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 15:59:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 15:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-06-12 07:59:59 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-06-21 16:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-07-08 00:00:00 UTC

Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled

Report 1 Summary

Forecasts

Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-06 23:59:59 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-06 23:59:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-06 23:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-06-21 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-07-12 00:00:00 UTC

Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 23:59:59 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 23:59:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 23:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-06-22 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-07-13 00:00:00 UTC

Forecaster 3: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 23:59:59 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 23:59:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-07 23:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-06-08 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-06-22 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-06-29 00:00:00 UTC

Research Summary

The research shows Roy Morgan’s weekly Federal Voting Intention series recorded a clear upward trend for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation through April–May 2026: roughly 21–22% in early April/May, 25.5% in the Roy Morgan weekly poll with survey period ending May 24, 2026, and a Roy Morgan special SMS poll (May 13–14, 2026) that reported 32% (the SMS poll is not a regular weekly poll and therefore may not meet the question’s weekly-poll criterion). Multiple other pollsters in late May/early June 2026 (DemosAU, Redbridge/Accent Research, NewsWire, Resolve) reported One Nation in the high 20s to mid-30s (roughly 24–34%), and political events cited as drivers of the surge include the February 13 Liberal leadership spill, the May 9 Farrer by-election (One Nation win), and a controversial federal budget in mid-May; economic anxiety and government unpopularity were also noted as contributing factors. The research also notes that no specific prediction-market contracts were found for this exact Roy Morgan 27% threshold, that Roy Morgan’s SMS and weekly results can differ (house-effect/format differences), and that the question’s resolution requires a Roy Morgan weekly Federal Voting Intention poll with a survey period end date after June 1, 2026 and on or before August 12, 2026.

Sources used (homepages and relevant sites consulted):
https://www.roymorgan.com
https://demosau.substack.com/ (DemosAU)
https://resolvenow.com.au/ (Resolve Strategic)
https://redbridgeaustralia.com.au/ (Redbridge)
https://accentresearch.com.au/ (Accent Research)
https://www.newswire.com.au/ (NewsWire)
https://www.abc.net.au/ (ABC News)
https://www.theguardian.com/au (The Guardian Australia)
https://polymarket.com/ (Polymarket)
https://manifold.markets/ (Manifold)
https://www.metaculus.com/ (Metaculus)
https://kevinbonham.com/ (Kevin Bonham)

RESEARCH

Report 1 Research

I’ll help you research this question about Pauline Hanson’s One Nation polling. Let me gather comprehensive information about recent polling trends, historical context, and relevant prediction markets.

Forecast — Post 394

Modal: Jun 19, 2026 to Jun 28, 2026 (26.0%) • partial_shift • 5m52s

Interpretation

Reading: strict

The resolution criteria are highly precise: they specify exact threshold (≥ 27.0%), exact publication window, the distinction between publication date and survey period end date, a daily-precision verifiability requirement for the end date, and a specific sentinel value for non-occurrence. This strict, literal construction leaves little room for charitable or broad interpretation.

Time bounds

• observation_window: Weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention polls published after 2026-06-01 and on or before 2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00
• resolution_date: 2026-08-12

Edge cases identified

1. The resolved value is the survey period END date, not the publication date — these may differ by several days; resolvers must distinguish the two carefully.
2. If two polls are published on the same day (simultaneously) and both qualify, the one with the earlier survey period end date determines resolution.
3. The threshold is ≥ 27.0% exactly — a figure of exactly 27.0% qualifies; 26.9% does not.
4. The resolution sentinel ‘>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00’ is not a date value in the normal sense — downstream models must treat this as a non-occurrence outcome rather than a date.
5. Annulment is triggered specifically when a qualifying poll exists but the end date cannot be verified to daily precision (e.g., only month/quarter reported), not merely when no qualifying poll is found.
6. The observation window starts strictly after June 1, 2026 — polls published exactly on June 1 do not qualify.
7. If Roy Morgan changes its polling format or ceases weekly publication, this could affect whether qualifying polls are available within the window.

Research (3/3 variants, shared evidence pool)

Total evidence registered (shared pool): ?

Research Brief

Evidence confidence: medium

Scenario 1: Early crossing within ~3 weeks (survey end date approximately late June 2026) [high evidence]

Conditions favoring

The computed survival projection’s median wait is ~3 weeks from June 1 (survey period ending ~June 22, 2026). The current level of 25.5% is only 1.5pp below the threshold. Observed weekly gains of +3pp have occurred. Post-budget political momentum and a favorable polling environment (Fox & Hedgehog already at 27%, Newspoll at 27% in February) support a rapid crossing. Upward trend since mid-April is intact.

Conditions against

Week-to-week drops of −3pp have also been observed. The special SMS poll at 32% used a different methodology and may not translate to the weekly face-to-face/phone format. Roy Morgan’s weekly poll has not yet exceeded 25.5% despite the broader polling environment.

Scenario 2: Mid-window crossing (survey end date approximately mid-July to early August 2026) [medium evidence]

Conditions favoring

The P90 of the survival projection is ~6.7 weeks, placing the upper range of the distribution around mid-July. Historical volatility means the poll could oscillate below 27% for several more weeks before a sustained move above threshold. The +0.2%/week drift rate is modest and could take longer to materialize.

Conditions against

The survival projection’s median is only ~3 weeks, making a mid-July crossing the tail-end of the central scenario rather than a distinct cluster. Six weeks of polls without crossing would require sustained underperformance relative to the computed trajectory.

Scenario 3: No qualifying poll by deadline (resolves as >2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00) [low evidence]

Conditions favoring

If One Nation support reverses — as it did sharply in April 2026 (−3pp in one week per source 15) and per InDaily’s report of a prior ‘slump from historic peaks’ (source 12) — the weekly poll could remain below 27% for the entire ~10-week window. The weekly face-to-face/phone methodology may systematically yield lower results than the SMS-based special poll (32%) or other pollsters.

Conditions against

The survival projection assigns only ~1.5% probability to non-occurrence by August 10 (source 14). The current trend is upward. Two separate non-Roy Morgan polls already show 27%+ readings. The gap to threshold is only 1.5pp.

Key uncertainties

• Whether One Nation’s post-budget support in the regular weekly face-to-face/phone Roy Morgan survey will converge toward the 32% recorded in the special SMS snap poll or remain substantially lower.
• Whether the upward trend in the May 18–24 series (25.5%) will continue or reverse in subsequent weeks, given documented −3pp single-week drops.
• The exact week-to-week trajectory of Roy Morgan weekly polls from June 2 onward, none of which had been published as of the evidence-gathering date.
• Whether any structural political events between June and August 2026 (e.g., further leadership changes, budget implementation, interest rate decisions) will materially affect One Nation support.
• Whether Fox & Hedgehog and Newspoll’s 27% readings translate to the Roy Morgan weekly methodology, given potential house effects between pollsters.

Forecast variants (3/3)

Variant 0: inside_view (inside_view_v1)

Inside view causal chain:

Current state: One Nation at 25.5% in the May 18–24 Roy Morgan weekly poll — 1.5pp below the 27.0% threshold. The upward trend from mid-April through late May has been intact (+4pp over ~10 weeks). Two non-Roy-Morgan polls (Fox & Hedgehog June 1, Newspoll Feb 5–8) already show exactly 27%.

Causal mechanism: Post-budget economic anxiety (rising petrol prices, potential rate hikes, Liberal leadership disruption) is driving One Nation support. The SMS snap poll (May 13–14) at 32% signals the political environment strongly supports a crossing. The weekly face-to-face/phone methodology typically lags the snap poll but should trend in the same direction with a lag. The 1.5pp gap is achievable in a single week given observed +3pp single-week moves.

Scenario weighting (by evidence strength):

1. Early crossing ~3 weeks (survey end ~late June 2026) — relative_evidence_strength: HIGH. The survival projection (Weibull median ~3 weeks, P90 ~6.7 weeks, P(by Aug 10) ~98.5%) is the dominant quantitative signal. This places strong mass on bins 0–4 (June 1–July 16). The median survey end date ~June 22 sits in Jun 19–28 (bin_2). The current trend + neighboring pollsters at 27% = strong causal support. I place ~60% here across the early bins (0–4).

2. Mid-window crossing mid-July to early August — relative_evidence_strength: MEDIUM. P90 of the survival projection is ~6.7 weeks from June 1, placing it ~July 18. Bins 4–7 (Jul 7–Aug 12) cover this tail. Historical −3pp drops could delay the crossing. ~25% here.

3. No qualifying poll by deadline — relative_evidence_strength: LOW. Survival projection assigns only ~1.5% to non-occurrence by Aug 10. But I’m adding a modest buffer for methodology house effects and potential reversal (the April slump showed −3pp in one week). ~5% on bin_8+ (essentially the “never happens” bins).

Distribution shape:

• The Weibull median at ~3 weeks from June 1 → survey end ~June 22 → Jun 19–28 (bin_2) gets the most mass
• Spread across bins 1–4 covers the interquartile range
• Bins 5–7 cover the P90 tail
• Bins 8–12 get the residual ~5% for non-occurrence/late occurrence

The window spans ~10 weekly polls; Aug 12 – Oct 23 (bin_8) and beyond represent “beyond deadline” resolution. The question resolves as “>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00” which maps to bin_8 and beyond.

Specific allocation:

• Jun 1–10 (bin_0): ~2% — very early, P10 of survival projection is ~0.9 weeks from June 1, so survey end ~June 8
• Jun 10–19 (bin_1): ~15% — covers weeks 2–3 from onset, near P25–P40
• Jun 19–28 (bin_2): ~25% — covers the median (~June 22), highest mass
• Jun 28–Jul 7 (bin_3): ~18% — post-median, moderate mass
• Jul 7–16 (bin_4): ~12% — week 5–6, approaching P75
• Jul 16–25 (bin_5): ~8% — week 6–8, P75–P85
• Jul 25–Aug 3 (bin_6): ~6% — P85–P92
• Aug 3–12 (bin_7): ~4% — near P92–P98.5
• Aug 12–Oct 23 (bin_8): ~3% — “no qualifying poll by deadline” mass
• bin_9 through bin_12: ~7% spread tiny amounts (essentially zero but for late-resolution scenarios if question extends)

Wait — bins 8–12 represent dates AFTER the resolution deadline. The “no qualifying poll by deadline” resolves as “>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00” which is bin_8+. So bins 8–12 collectively should get ~5%.

Final allocation (summing to 1.0): bin_0: 0.02 bin_1: 0.15 bin_2: 0.25 bin_3: 0.18 bin_4: 0.12 bin_5: 0.08 bin_6: 0.06 bin_7: 0.04 bin_8: 0.03 bin_9: 0.02 bin_10: 0.01 bin_11: 0.02 bin_12: 0.02 Total = 1.00

Variant 1: outside_view (outside_view_v1)

Reference class: weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention findings for One Nation starting from the most recent weekly reading (25.5% in the May 18–24 survey) and asking how quickly they cross ≥27%. Base rate: use the research brief’s computed survival projection (Weibull) which gives P(first ≥27% by ~Aug 10) ≈ 98.5%, median wait ≈ 3 weeks (survey-end ≈ June 22) with P10 ≈ 0.9 weeks and P90 ≈ 6.7 weeks (source 14). Adjustment: reduce the survival-based base rate by ~6 pp to 92.5% overall to account for medium evidence confidence, method differences between the May SMS snap poll and the regular weekly face-to-face/phone series, and documented single-week −3pp reversals (sources 4, 15, confidence_in_evidence=medium). Final: 92.5% total probability the first qualifying Roy Morgan weekly poll (One Nation ≥27.0%) appears within the resolution window; 7.5% assigned to the non-occurrence outcome (placed as mass on the post-window bin to represent the sentinel ‘>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00’). Distribution shape and justification: - Concentrated late June / early July (bin_2 Jun 19–28 = 38.95%, bin_3 Jun 28–Jul 07 = 19.47%): follows the survival projection median ≈ 3 weeks (survey-end ~June 22) and the level/drift evidence starting at 25.5% (sources 14, 13, 2/3). - Small but nontrivial early tail (bin_0 Jun 01–10 = 2.92%, bin_1 Jun 10–19 = 11.68%): reflects the P10 ≈ 0.9 weeks and week-to-week volatility that can produce a one-week jump (source 10, 15). - Moderate mid-window tail (bins 4–7 = 9.74% + 4.87% + 2.92% + 1.95%): covers the P90 ≈ 6.7 weeks and the survival projection’s upper range (source 14) as well as the level-drift scenario (source 13). - Non-occurrence (7.5%, placed in bin_8 Aug 12–Oct 23): reflects the low-but-real chance the weekly face-to-face/phone series does not report ≥27% before the Aug 12 cutoff (method differences, historical reversals; sources 4, 12, 15). Evidence-weighting: per the brief, the “early crossing” scenario is tagged high-evidence (so the bulk of mass sits in late June/early July), the mid-window scenario medium-evidence (smaller but non-negligible mass in July), and the no-qualifying-poll scenario low-evidence (small residual mass) — the forecast distribution reflects those relative_evidence_strength tags (source summary and scenarios in the research brief). Strict-reading note: I treat the criteria literally — the threshold is ≥27.0% (exact 27.0% qualifies), resolution uses the survey PERIOD END DATE as the resolved ISO date, and annulment risk is low because Roy Morgan weekly findings normally publish exact start/end dates to daily precision (source 17). Uncertainty caveats: confidence in evidence is medium, and sudden political shocks or house-effect differences between pollsters could materially change timing (sources 8, 11, 15).

Variant 2: contrarian_v2 (contrarian_v2)

Adversarial reading

The brief’s dominant evidence (high-strength survival projection with median ~3 weeks and 98.5% probability by early August) plus the +0.2 pp/week drift both pull the implicit consensus toward an early crossing, most likely in late June (bin_2). The bulk of cited facts—25.5% starting level, documented +3 pp single-week gains, and the Fox & Hedgehog/Newspoll 27% readings—reinforce this early-cluster view.

Counter-evidence found (or absence)

Searched for counter-evidence; the documented −3 pp single-week drops and methodology gap between the 32% SMS snap poll and the qualifying weekly face-to-face series are already incorporated into the volatility term of the survival model. No additional substantive counter-evidence appears that would overturn the high-strength early-crossing scenario.

Distribution implications

The high-evidence early scenario therefore receives the heaviest mass (concentrated on bin_2), with the medium-evidence mid-window tail receiving moderate mass across bins 3–5. The low-evidence “never” scenario receives negligible mass. This produces a tighter distribution around the survival median than a naïve average of the three scenarios would imply, reflecting that the counter-evidence was already priced into the strongest evidence source.

Consolidate

Strategy: logit_mean • Drafts: 3/3

Reviewers (3/3)

anchoring → shift_higher (medium magnitude, medium confidence) anchoring_v1

The draft rationale explicitly anchors its p50 (bin_2, Jun 19–28) at the MEDIAN of the survival projection’s 3-week wait, but that survival model is itself highly optimistic: its Weibull shape=1.5 and median=3 weeks were derived from a brief that used the upward-trending SMS snap-poll environment as context, yet the regular weekly face-to-face/phone series has never exceeded 25.5% and lags the SMS poll by ~6.5pp. The phrase “The current level of 25.5% is only 1.5pp below the threshold. Observed weekly gains of +3pp have occurred” describes the BEST-CASE single-week scenario — treating it as the modal expectation is anchored at the optimistic end. Concretely, placing 33% of mass in June 19–28 survey end, i.e. just 3 weeks in (bin_2) requires assuming One Nation jumps +1.5pp or more in roughly the first two polls of the window; meanwhile the observed drift rate is only +0.2pp/week, meaning the modal path at that rate doesn’t reach 27% until around week 7–8 (survey end late July). The correct p50 should be closer to bins 3–5 (late June/July) not bin_2, and the survival model’s 98.5% P(by Aug 10) figure — which drives the low mass in bins 8–12 — is almost certainly over-fitted to an unusually favorable political moment rather than a stable base rate.

Flagged concerns

• Optimistic p50 placement: The draft places peak mass in Jun 19–28 (bin_2), corresponding to the survival model’s 3-week median. However, the weekly drift rate is only +0.2pp/week — at that pace, reaching 27% from 25.5% takes ~7.5 weeks (survey end ~late July, bin_5). The 3-week median assumes immediate momentum continuation at the upper tail of observed weekly moves, not the modal (+0.2pp/week) trajectory.
• Best-case scenario treated as modal: The brief’s ‘early crossing’ scenario is tagged high-evidence strength, but the supporting evidence (Fox & Hedgehog at 27%, Newspoll at 27%) comes from different pollsters with potentially different house effects from Roy Morgan. The draft elevates this cross-pollster evidence to underpin the modal case without discounting for house-effect uncertainty.
• Survival model overconfidence: The Weibull survival projection assigning ~98.5% P(by Aug 10) is accepted nearly at face value (residual bins 8–12 total only ~1–2%). The model was fit to a politically charged post-budget moment; historical evidence shows One Nation dropping 3pp in a single week and ‘slumping from historic peaks.’ An ~8–12% probability of non-occurrence within the window would be more consistent with the stated medium evidence confidence.
• SMS snap poll anchoring the Weibull inputs: The survival model’s hazard parameters were implicitly calibrated in a context where a 32% SMS snap poll was available. The regular weekly series has structurally lower readings. Using a Weibull fitted to this period likely overstates the crossing speed for the qualifying (non-SMS) series.

ceiling → redistribute (low magnitude, high confidence) ceiling_v1

The critical structural ceiling here is the hard resolution window: the question resolves as “>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00” (bin_8+) if no qualifying poll appears by that deadline, yet the draft distributes ~1.0% across bins 9–12 (post-Oct 23, 2026 through after May 2027). These bins represent dates entirely outside the resolution window — if no qualifying poll appears by Aug 12, the question resolves as the sentinel “>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00” which maps to bin_8, NOT to specific dates in 2027. Per the resolution criteria: “If no qualifying poll is published on or before 2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00, the question resolves as >2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00.” This means all non-occurrence mass must sit in the first post-deadline bin (bin_8), and bins 9–12 should receive zero probability since they represent specific date ranges that can never be the resolution value. The draft places ~1.4% in bin_8 with residual ~0.6% scattered across bins 9–12, but the correct structure demands all non-occurrence mass (~5–7.5%) pile into bin_8 and bins 9–12 get 0.0%.

Flagged concerns

• Post-deadline bin misallocation: The resolution criteria state the question resolves as the sentinel ‘>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00’ if no qualifying poll is published by that deadline. This sentinel value maps specifically to Aug 12 – Oct 23, 2026 (bin_8) as the ‘beyond deadline’ bin. However, the draft allocates ~0.28% to bin_9, ~0.23% to bin_10, ~0.29% to bin_11, and ~0.29% to bin_12. These bins represent specific calendar date ranges (e.g., Jan 4 to Mar 17, 2027) that can NEVER be the resolution value under any scenario — the question either resolves to a specific survey-end date within the window (bins 0–7) or to the sentinel (bin_8). All non-occurrence mass must be concentrated in bin_8, not diffused across bins 9–12.
• Non-occurrence mass under-weighting in bin_8: The draft places only ~1.4% in bin_8 for non-occurrence, while the research brief explicitly notes the survival projection assigns ~1.5% to non-occurrence and the outside-view variant applies a 7.5% non-occurrence adjustment for methodology differences and reversal risk. The consolidated draft appears to have under-weighted non-occurrence in bin_8 relative to even the lowest estimate (~1.5%) once the bins 9–12 mass is correctly redirected here. The total non-occurrence mass should be ~5–8%, all in bin_8.

math → redistribute (low magnitude, medium confidence) math_v1

The draft forecast exhibits a critical internal inconsistency between its stated rationale and the published distribution. The draft explicitly states it is allocating mass across bins 0–7 to represent the time-to-event distribution, with the survival projection median (~June 22) placing ~25% in Jun 19–28 (bin_2), and ~5% total assigned to non-occurrence in bins 8–12. However, the actual prediction_map sums the post-deadline bins (bin_8 through bin_12) to approximately 2.4%, not the stated ~5%. Conversely, the early bins (0–4) total approximately 62%, not the explicitly stated distribution of ~60% across 0–4. The discrepancy arises from how the draft reconciles its three-variant inputs: the outside_view (GPT-5-mini) uses different granular percentages than the inside_view allocation, and the logit_mean reconciliation appears to have compressed non-occurrence mass. The published Jun 19–28 (bin_2) at 33.4% is internally sound and consistent with the survival median, but the shortfall in later bins and the overweight in early bins create a net shift toward earlier resolution than the stated 5% non-occurrence target implies.

Flagged concerns

• Mass allocation inconsistency: Draft rationale explicitly allocates ~5% to bins 8–12 (post-deadline non-occurrence) but the published prediction_map sums to only ~2.4% across those bins. This is a ~2.6pp gap, shifting probability mass forward into the early/mid bins.
• Bin 0–4 overweight vs stated rationale: Draft states ~60% across bins 0–4, but the published values sum to ~62%. Minor, but indicative of unreconciled variant differences.
• Lack of transparency in multi-variant reconciliation: The draft describes three independent variant forecasts (inside_view, outside_view, contrarian_v2) but does not show how logit_mean or any other aggregation rule produced the final numbers. The gap between stated allocations and published values suggests the reconciliation was not explicitly documented.

Reconcile: partial_shift

Reviews consumed: 3

The ceiling reviewer made the strongest structural point: bins 9–12 represent specific 2027 date ranges that can NEVER be the resolution value—non-occurrence resolves to the sentinel “>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00” which maps to bin_8 alone. I accepted this fully and zeroed bins 9–12, consolidating non-occurrence mass into bin_8. The anchoring reviewer argued the draft over-anchors on the optimistic Weibull median (bin_2 at 33%) and that the modest +0.2pp/week drift suggests a later modal crossing; I partially accepted this by shifting some mass from bin_2 toward bins 3–5 and raising non-occurrence mass to ~6% to reflect medium evidence confidence and house-effect risk, but did not fully pivot because two non-Roy-Morgan polls already showed 27% and the trend is upward. The math reviewer flagged inconsistency between the draft’s stated ~5% non-occurrence and the actual ~2.4% allocation; I accepted this and corrected the total non-occurrence mass to ~6%, all in bin_8 per the ceiling reviewer.

Rejected critiques

• [anchoring] Survival model overconfident; modal p50 should shift to bins 3–5 (late July) based on +0.2pp/week drift rate, with 8–12% non-occurrence.

  • Why rejected: Partially accepted (shifted some mass later and raised non-occurrence to ~7.5%), but rejected the full magnitude. The +0.2pp/week drift figure is the average across a period that includes declines; the recent trajectory since mid-April is steeper, and two non-Roy-Morgan polls already hit 27% on/before June 1. The Weibull median remains the best quantitative anchor, so bin_2 retains the modal mass.

• [math] Lack of transparency in logit_mean reconciliation produced internal inconsistency between stated and published allocations.

  • Why rejected: Noted but not actionable for the final forecast—this is a process critique about the consolidate stage, not a directional signal. The substantive concern (non-occurrence mass shortfall) was integrated.

Final Distribution (date ranges)

Evidence Sources (17)

1. Federal Election too close to call: ALP 51% and One Nation 49% — Roy Morgan post-Budget special SMS poll (May 14, 2026) found One Nation at 32% primary vote — already well above the 27% threshold. This was the highest One Nation had ever polled.
2. Support for ALP and L-NP Coalition down as One Nation gains support for third straight week — Roy Morgan poll week of May 18-24, 2026: One Nation primary vote was 25.5% (up 1% from prior week), ALP 27.5% (down 2%), L-NP Coalition 23% (down 1%), Greens 13.5% (up 2%), Independents/Others 10.5% (unchanged). Survey conducted May 18-24, 2026, n=1,613 electors.
3. Support for ALP and L-NP Coalition down as One Nation gains support for third straight week — Roy Morgan weekly poll (survey period May 18-24, 2026) showed One Nation at 25.5% — still 1.5 percentage points below the 27% threshold, published May 25, 2026.
4. untitled — The post-Budget special SMS poll (May 13-14, 2026) showing 32% was a distinct ‘Snap SMS Poll’ methodology, not the regular weekly face-to-face/phone survey. The question specifies ‘weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll’ which may exclude this special SMS poll type.
5. untitled — Roy Morgan weekly polls in late April 2026: April 20-26 showed One Nation at 22.5%; April 27-May 3 showed One Nation at 21.5%, a slight drop. The trend of increasing One Nation support in the weekly polls started in May.
6. Straight after the Budget – Federal Election too close to call: ALP 51% and One Nation 49% — Roy Morgan Special Snap SMS Poll conducted May 13-14, 2026 (immediately after Federal Budget): One Nation had 32% primary support, ALP 28.5%, L-NP Coalition 16.5%, Greens 11.5%, Others 11.5%. On two-party preferred ALP 51% vs One Nation 49% — described as ‘too close to call.’ Sample n=2,348 electors.
7. Albanese Government maintains large two-party preferred lead while One Nation and the Coalition are tied on primary — Roy Morgan poll week of April 20-26, 2026: One Nation primary vote 22.5% (up 1%), ALP 30% (virtually unchanged), L-NP Coalition 22.5% (virtually unchanged). Survey April 20-26, 2026, n=1,587 electors.
8. Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread) - The Poll Bludger — Fox & Hedgehog poll (published June 1, 2026) showed One Nation at exactly 27% — right at the threshold. This is a different pollster from Roy Morgan, so does NOT satisfy the resolution criteria, but shows the political environment supports 27% from Roy Morgan is plausible.
9. untitled — Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention weekly poll timeline for One Nation primary vote in 2026: Feb 9-13: 25%, Feb 13-16: 21.5%, Feb 16-22: 20.5%, Feb 23-Mar 1: 22%, Mar 2-8: 23.5%, Mar 9-15: 22.5%, Mar 16-22: 23.5%, Mar 23-29: 23.5%, Apr 6-12: 24.5%, Apr 13-19: 21.5%, Apr 20-26: 22.5%, Apr 27-May 3: 21.5%, May 4-10: 22%, May 11-17: 24.5%, May 18-24: 25.5%.
10. untitled — The One Nation primary vote in Roy Morgan weekly polls peaked at 25% in the Feb 9-13 survey (just after the Liberal leadership spill on Feb 13), then dipped to 20.5% (Feb 16-22), before recovering and trending upward: hitting 25.5% in the May 18-24 survey. The largest weekly gain in the dataset was +3% (Apr 6-12: from 21.5% to 24.5%). The net trend from mid-March to late May was +2% over ~10 weeks, roughly +0.2% per week.
11. One Nation surges to new high as Coalition slumps to record low in latest Newspoll — Newspoll (Feb 5-8, 2026) showed One Nation at 27% — an earlier historic high in a non-Roy Morgan poll. This indicates the 27% threshold has been reached in other polls already, consistent with Roy Morgan approaching this level.
12. One Nation support slumps from historic peaks — InDaily reported (April 20, 2026): “One Nation support slumps from historic peaks” — suggesting One Nation had already reached a previous high and then declined from that peak before re-surging post-budget. This pattern shows potential for volatile swings in both directions.
13. untitled — Level forecast from current One Nation weekly poll value (25.5%, May 18-24 survey) with +0.2%/week drift over 10 weeks (to ~early August 2026): mean/median projected at 27.5%, with std of 5.5pp. P10=20.5%, P25=23.8%, P50=27.5%, P75=31.2%, P90=34.5%. Given starting at 25.5%, this suggests a ~50% chance of reaching or exceeding 27.0% at the mean trajectory, but week-to-week volatility is high (~1.7pp per week based on the data series).
14. untitled — Survival forecast (Weibull shape=1.5, median 3 weeks) for One Nation first reaching 27% in a weekly Roy Morgan poll after June 1, 2026: P(by 10 weeks, ~Aug 10, 2026) = 98.5%. Median wait ~3 weeks (survey ending ~June 22, 2026). P10 (earliest) ~0.9 weeks, P90 ~6.7 weeks. The upward momentum and current level of 25.5% suggest a high probability of crossing 27% within the resolution window.
15. untitled — In Roy Morgan weekly polls, One Nation dropped sharply from 24.5% to 21.5% (down 3%) between Apr 6-12 and Apr 13-19 2026, showing that short-term declines of 3+ points in a single week are possible. This historical volatility is a key contrarian risk to assuming One Nation reaches 27% quickly.
16. Roy Morgan findings index – Federal Voting Intention 2026 — The official Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention findings page URL structure is https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/[ID]-federal-voting-intention-[date]-2026; the most recent published finding as of 25–26 May 2026 is finding #10231 (survey period May 18–24, 2026), and no June–August 2026 Federal Voting Intention findings have been published on roymorgan.com as of the date of this search.
17. Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention finding #10231 (May 18–24, 2026 survey) — Roy Morgan’s weekly Federal Voting Intention findings are published individually at URLs of the form roymorgan.com/findings/[ID]-federal-voting-intention-[month-day]-2026, with each report citing the exact survey start and end date, sample size, and primary vote percentages for each party to one decimal place — confirming the official publication format for resolution purposes.

wooley_rhino • run b98a6847 • $3.2 • 5m52s

Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1780790400.0, 1.0: 1780790400.0, 5.0: 1780790400.0, 10.0: 1780790400.0, 15.0: 1780790400.0, 20.0: 1780790400.0, 25.0: 1780790400.0, 30.0: 1781395200.0, 35.0: 1781395200.0, 40.0: 1781395200.0, 45.0: 1782000000.0, 46.0: 1782000000.0, 47.0: 1782000000.0, 48.0: 1782000000.0, 49.0: 1782000000.0, 50.0: 1782000000.0, 51.0: 1782000000.0, 52.0: 1782000000.0, 53.0: 1782000000.0, 54.0: 1782000000.0, 55.0: 1782000000.0, 60.0: 1782604800.0, 65.0: 1782604800.0, 70.0: 1783209600.0, 75.0: 1783814400.0, 80.0: 1784419200.0, 85.0: 1785024000.0, 90.0: 1786233600.0, 95.0: 1786579200.0, 99.0: 1786579200.0, 99.9: 1786579200.0}

Model’s Answer: Step one is to anchor on the exact resolution source and metric. Only the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention series counts; the special post-budget Roy Morgan SMS poll at 32% and outside polls like Redbridge at 31% are informative but not resolving. The latest qualifying weekly Roy Morgan evidence in hand is 25.5% for the survey ending 2026-05-24, up from 24.5% the prior week and roughly 21.5% two weeks before that. That means the target is close in level terms, but still not yet reached in the actual resolving series.

Step two is to weigh momentum against reversion. Being only 1.5 points short means a single ordinary week of drift or sampling noise could push the weekly figure to 27.0%+. The corroborating non-resolving polls make an early crossing materially more plausible than a pure extrapolation from 25.5% alone would suggest. But I discount them because they may reflect a transient post-budget reaction, different methodology, or a one-off measurement effect. Since the weekly Roy Morgan series is still below threshold, I should not act as if crossing is nearly certain.

Step three is to focus on timing mechanics. Roy Morgan’s weekly federal polls typically use week-long field periods ending on Sunday and publish early the following week. Given the question’s requirement that the qualifying poll be published after 2026-06-01, the first practically relevant survey-period end date is most likely 2026-06-07, followed by 2026-06-14, 2026-06-21, and so on weekly. So this is a discrete weekly-hazard problem, not a smooth daily one.

Step four is to assign scenario weights. My base case is that One Nation’s weekly Roy Morgan support is genuinely in the mid-20s and thus has a decent chance to print 27+ at least once over the next ten-ish weekly opportunities. A bullish case says the post-budget regime shift is real and the first or second eligible weekly poll crosses. A bearish case says the special/other polls overstated support and the weekly series settles back around 23–26, making a crossing much later or not before the deadline. Netting those out, I think an early-June or late-June crossing is more likely than not, but an August miss remains meaningful.

The assumptions that would most change the forecast are these. First, that the latest weekly Roy Morgan 25.5% is a real signal rather than a transient/outlier reading; I put about a 35% chance this assumption is materially wrong, which would shift a lot of mass to late July or no hit by the deadline. Second, that the special Roy Morgan and Redbridge numbers contain real information about a true support level near or above 27 rather than mostly hype/noise; I put roughly a 40% chance this is materially wrong, which would especially reduce the odds of a June crossing. Third, that Roy Morgan continues a roughly weekly cadence with familiar survey-end dating; maybe a 20% chance this is wrong, which affects exact dates more than total event probability.

An earlier outcome would most likely happen if the next ordinary weekly Roy Morgan release shows the post-budget surge persisting and/or ordinary polling noise adds the needed 1–2 points. I put about a 42% chance on a qualifying result by 2026-06-14. A later outcome would happen if the May surge fades, leaving One Nation mostly in the 24–26 range, where some weeks come close but do not clear 27. I put about a 35% chance that the threshold is still not reached by 2026-06-28, and about an 8% chance it is not reached in any qualifying weekly poll by the deadline. In the percentile table below, I encode that unresolved/no-hit-by-deadline tail as 2026-08-13.

Percentile .1: 2026-06-07 Percentile 1: 2026-06-07 Percentile 5: 2026-06-07 Percentile 10: 2026-06-07 Percentile 15: 2026-06-07 Percentile 20: 2026-06-07 Percentile 25: 2026-06-07 Percentile 30: 2026-06-14 Percentile 35: 2026-06-14 Percentile 40: 2026-06-14 Percentile 45: 2026-06-21 Percentile 46: 2026-06-21 Percentile 47: 2026-06-21 Percentile 48: 2026-06-21 Percentile 49: 2026-06-21 Percentile 50: 2026-06-21 Percentile 51: 2026-06-21 Percentile 52: 2026-06-21 Percentile 53: 2026-06-21 Percentile 54: 2026-06-21 Percentile 55: 2026-06-21 Percentile 60: 2026-06-28 Percentile 65: 2026-06-28 Percentile 70: 2026-07-05 Percentile 75: 2026-07-12 Percentile 80: 2026-07-19 Percentile 85: 2026-07-26 Percentile 90: 2026-08-09 Percentile 95: 2026-08-13 Percentile 99: 2026-08-13 Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-13

Weekly Roy Morgan voting intentions provide the fixed cadence and date anchor for resolution.

Resolution uses the survey-period end date, so eligible outcomes cannot predate the week ending May 31, 2026 under the published schedule.

One Nation’s support climbed sharply amid coalition turbulence and economic pressure, raising the baseline for weekly headlines.

A concentrated post-budget surge and voter displacement from the majors increased the prospect of a 27% headline.

The weekly finding with fieldwork to May 31, 2026 reported a 27.0% headline, making that survey end the first qualifying pivot.

Special or split-week polls can overshoot temporarily, but the weekly headline series is the binding instrument for adjudication.

Key sensitivities are publication timestamps, simultaneous releases, and the rule that ties the outcome to the survey-period end date.

Sampling noise and rapid political shocks could have changed timing, yet the observed weekly result and the resolution criteria determine the declared date.

Forecast (median observation date): 2026-06-24

• The most recent eligible Roy Morgan weekly figure is exactly 27.0%, so the “first hit” is already sitting right on the threshold rather than needing a big rise.
• The next qualifying opportunity is effectively the following weekly survey period (starting the first Sunday in June, i.e., mid-to-late early June).
• Multiple other polls around the same period also show One Nation at or above 27%, which makes it less likely the Roy Morgan 27% result is a fluke.
• That said, 27% is an extreme / unusual level, so there’s meaningful risk that it doesn’t fully hold from one week to the next due to normal poll noise and possible mean reversion.
• Because the poll is weekly, the “first qualifying date” tends to land early if the threshold persists, but the remaining uncertainty spreads probability across late June and beyond—pulling the median to the later part of early summer.