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The question asks for the count of distinct Federal Register FAA Rule documents containing the exact phrase “airworthiness directives” published between 2026-05-26 and 2026-08-12. Forecasters agreed the strongest signals are (a) the Public Inspection page showing six FAA AD Rule documents scheduled for May 27 (making very-low outcomes unlikely) and (b) reconstructed historical analogues of the same window—24 documents in 2024 and 29 in 2025—which serve as the best base-rate anchors. They also noted a short, bursty uptick in May 2026 (many ADs in clustered issue days and a feed that classified 22 of 50 recent FAA final rules as ADs), but cautioned this is a small-sample phenomenon that should be regressed toward the 2024/2025 baseline. All teams recommend modeling with an overdispersed mixture (to capture lumpy multi-document days, corrections, and emergency follow-ups) rather than a simple Poisson extrapolation, and to update frequently from the Federal Register API/Public Inspection queue. The consensus central mass is in the high-20s to low-30s, with an elevated-state component into the 40s and a smaller ~10–11% tail probability that the May burst persists and pushes the count above 50.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
Key driver is the FAA’s recent publication tempo for Airworthiness Directives (AD) rules versus the 79-day length of the window (2026-05-26 to 2026-08-12 inclusive). Background data implies a 2026 YTD pace of about 0.90 AD-rule Federal Register documents/day (128 over 142 days), and an even higher recent 78-day stretch producing 73 documents (~0.94/day). Either rate projects roughly 71–74 documents in a 79-day window, comfortably above 50.
The main downside risk is a repeat of a 2024-like slowdown (the same calendar window was 35 in 2024) driven by resource diversion to major safety/oversight initiatives. 2026 has potential counter-currents (e.g., large rulemakings and Boeing oversight demands), but the fact that 2026 YTD throughput remains high argues against a high probability of falling to ≤50.
Synthesis: I place the probability of the count being ≤50 in the ~10–20% range (center ~15%), with the remaining ~80–90% in the open-above bin (>50). Because the platform compresses all outcomes above 50 into the open-upper tail, most percentiles are intentionally placed strictly above 50 to represent that tail mass (the specific values above 50 are mainly encoding tail probability, not literal expected counts).
An amateur forecast is likely to (a) anchor on the 0–50 visible range and under-allocate the open-above tail, or (b) overreact to the 2024 anomaly without reconciling it with the strong 2026 YTD/recent run-rate and the 2025 window (63). Compared to several analyst drafts, this forecast also avoids mis-encoding open-tail mass by stacking percentiles at the upper bound or using past-bound values beyond the platform’s usable cap. Net result: a better-calibrated estimate of P(count > 50) while retaining a meaningful slowdown tail.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the dominant approach is to anchor on recent 2026 publication pace and then adjust for historical variability in this exact window.
Recent pace is the primary signal
Historical window data provides a check
Seasonality and operational interruptions matter
Upside tail remains substantial
Taken together, the forecasts suggest a base case in the high 60s to low 70s, with meaningful downside risk if FAA activity slows, and a nontrivial upside path if recent issuance pace continues or accelerates.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is broadly consistent: they anchor the estimate to recent publication pace and historical counts for a comparable 79-day window, then adjust for uncertainty around FAA workload and publication batching.
The shared forecasting approach is to start from a high baseline implied by recent FAA AD publication rates, cross-check it against historical same-window performance, and then widen the range to reflect possible administrative slowdowns or surges. The central tension is whether the current pace will continue near the low 70s or whether operational distractions will pull the outcome materially lower.
— Iteration 3 — The overall reasoning is built around a few common anchors:
Where the forecasts agree:
There is broad agreement that the likely outcome is driven by recent 2026 momentum plus historical norms, with a baseline expectation around the high-60s if conditions remain normal.
Where they diverge:
The main disagreement is how much to discount for FAA workload distractions. One view applies only a small downward adjustment and stays near 68–69; another gives much heavier weight to the slowdown risk and centers the estimate much lower, around 41, with substantial probability below 50.5.
Bottom line:
The collective logic says the period should produce a moderate-to-high number of FAA Airworthiness Directives, but the final estimate hinges on whether current FAA staffing and attention remain close to the recent pace or are materially pulled away by other priorities.
The rationales broadly agree that the volume of FAA Airworthiness Directives (ADs) published during the summer 2026 window will be driven by a highly active regulatory pipeline, balanced against known administrative bandwidth constraints.
Base Rates and Calendar Dynamics Forecasters heavily anchor their expectations on the steady 2026 Year-to-Date publication pace. When accounting for weekends and federal holidays (Juneteenth and Independence Day), projecting the recent, uninterrupted business-day velocity forward establishes a baseline that aligns closely with typical, uninterrupted historical years.
Upward Pressures: A Saturated Pipeline The consensus highlights a robust rulemaking pipeline poised to mature during this window. Major upward drivers include:
Downward Pressures: Administrative Friction The primary downside risk revolves around structural constraints on the FAA’s Aircraft Certification Service. While forecasters agree that a severe, sudden drop—like the one caused by the 2024 Boeing 737 MAX 9 crisis—is highly unlikely, chronic demands persist. Concurrent agency priorities, including finalizing the complex Part 108 BVLOS drone rules, continuing Boeing factory oversight, and navigating internal FAA restructuring, could introduce bureaucratic friction. However, forecasters generally agree that routine ADs are prioritized as critical safety mandates and remain largely shielded from these broader programmatic delays.
Question: How many Federal Aviation Administration Airworthiness Directives will the Federal Register publish between 5/26/2026 and 8/12/2026? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 3: Probability distribution:
The research compiles historical Federal Register and FAA Airworthiness Directive (AD) counts, recent FAA activity, and ongoing rulemaking to assess publication volume for the 5/26/2026–8/12/2026 window. Key data noted: 2026 YTD through 5/22 was 128 AD-related documents over 142 days (~0.90 documents/day); annual totals of 318 (2025), 288 (2024), and 349 (2023); same-calendar-window counts of 78 (2022), 87 (2023), 35 (2024, an anomaly attributed to Boeing MAX 9 oversight), and 63 (2025); and a recent 78-day analog (3/5–5/22/2026) that produced 73 documents. The research also catalogs active pipelines likely to generate in-window ADs (notably Boeing 737 NG fuselage-crack NPRM with comments closing 6/11/2026, a 787 thrust-reverser NPRM with comments closed 5/22/2026, and follow-ups to emergency MD-11/DC-10 directives after the November 2025 UPS crash), manufacturer-level YTD distributions (e.g., 27 Airbus Helicopters, 15 Boeing, 15 Airbus SAS, 11 Bombardier, 7 Leonardo), and FAA workload/leadership context (agency restructuring, Part 108 BVLOS and production-rate review demands).
The research identifies upward pressures (emergency ADs from the MD-11 crash, pending Boeing and engine NPRMs, strong YTD pace, EASA harmonization for helicopters) and downward pressures (Aircraft Certification Service bandwidth diverted to other major rulemakings, potential summer slowdowns). It reports no active prediction markets found for this specific question (searches of Metaculus/Manifold/Polymarket returned none). Based on the historical reference classes and current rulemaking pipeline, the researcher’s summary central estimate fell in the ~65–75 range (central around 70–73 documents) with a suggested plausible 60–80 range and a wider 55–90 tail, while noting key uncertainties around exact timing of final rules and potential emergency directives.
Sources used (as referenced in the research):
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Median: ~70 documents | Range: 29–98 (P1–P99)
Recent publication pace is strong. The 2026 year-to-date rate (0.883 documents/day through May 25) and the trailing 78-day window (73 documents, March–May 2026) both project to ~70 documents over the 79-day forecast window. This is well above the 2024 suppressed level (~35) and above the 2025 result (63).
NPRM pipeline depth supports robust output. The pipeline of ~160 NPRMs published November 2025–May 2026 is nearly identical to the 156 that preceded the 2025 window (which yielded 63 final rules). This suggests the conversion machinery is functioning normally and should sustain output in the 63–73 range.
Institutional bandwidth risk is real but unquantified. The March 2026 FAA restructuring and concurrent Part 108 BVLOS rulemaking could divert Aircraft Certification Service capacity, analogous to the 2024 Boeing MAX 9 oversight crisis (which suppressed output to 35). However, the 2026 YTD pace shows no evidence of major disruption yet. This risk justifies a ~12% probability weight on a suppressed scenario (35–50 documents) but does not dominate the forecast.
Historical same-window variance is wide but informative. Four prior years (2022–2025) yielded 35, 63, 78, and 86 documents. The mean (65.5) and median (~70) anchor the forecast, though the range (35–86) reflects genuine institutional volatility.
Specific pending rules are marginal contributors. Boeing 737
Forecast (percentiles, aggregated):
Per-model forecasts:
Rationale: Summary The median estimate of 69 distinct Federal Aviation Administration Airworthiness Directives (ADs) reflects a strong, steady publication pace observed year-to-date in 2026, balanced against historical volatility and known minor downside risks. The 79-day forecast window spans May 26 to August 12. Historically, this exact window has seen significant variance, averaging roughly 72 documents over recent years with a typical mid-range between 55 and 87. The primary driver for the current assessment is the robust 2026 run-rate. Over the most recent 78-day period leading up to the forecast window, the FAA published 73 ADs, averaging approximately 0.94 documents per day. Extrapolating this direct pace yields 71 to 74 documents. However, this projection is slightly tapered to arrive at the 69 median due to a slow start in the first two days of the window, which yielded zero publications, and known bandwidth constraints within the FAA’s Aircraft Certification Service. The wide confidence intervals (from 43 at the low end to 92 at the high end) reflect the vulnerability of this administrative process to abrupt disruptions or sudden batch approvals.
Strongest Arguments for Higher Values • Sustained Output Pace: The FAA has maintained a high operational tempo in 2026, publishing 128 documents in the first 142 days of the year, signaling that the AD pipeline remains highly efficient. • Bilateral Harmonization: Continued reciprocal issuance of European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) ADs, particularly for Airbus Helicopters (which generated 27 documents year-to-date), supports a steady and robust influx of new rules. • Expected Final Rules: Pending rulemaking packages, such as the Boeing 737 forward-galley-door fuselage skin cracks final rule and ongoing Pratt & Whitney GTF inspections, could trigger multi-document batches. • Historical Precedent for Surges: Clearing of accumulated backlogs or administrative batching can lead to massive spikes, as seen in the 2021 window which recorded a record 122 ADs.
Strongest Arguments for Lower Values • Resource Diversion: The FAA’s Aircraft Certification Service bandwidth is partially consumed by major structural initiatives, including the Part 108 BVLOS rulemaking and ongoing Boeing 737 production-rate reviews, both of which historically slow routine AD throughput. • Precedent of Major Slowdowns: When oversight demands unexpectedly spike, routine AD publications can effectively stall. This occurred during the 2024 window, which plummeted to just 35 ADs because FAA bandwidth was consumed by the Boeing 737 MAX 9 door-plug incident oversight. • Early Window Lag: The first two days of the target window recorded zero published ADs, immediately removing a couple of expected documents from the theoretical maximum run-rate. • Workforce Constraints: Lingering structural effects from administrative workforce cuts in early 2025 could subtly bottleneck the bureaucratic processing required for formal Federal Register publication.
Key Uncertainties • Unforeseen Aviation Incidents: Any major safety event requiring immediate, high-priority oversight would drain FAA Aircraft Certification Service resources, severely depressing the routine AD count. • Federal Register Batch Processing: ADs are often published in erratic, multi-document batches. The exact timing of when large, coincident multi-manufacturer rules clear final review could easily shift a cluster of documents in or out of the rigid calendar bounds. • Competing Certification Priorities: The extent to which emerging regulatory frameworks and ongoing Boeing oversight draw staff time away from routine airworthiness evaluations remains highly variable.
How many Federal Aviation Administration Airworthiness Directives will the Federal Register publish between 5/26/2026 and 8/12/2026?
Key figures
Historical context
The publication of Airworthiness Directives (ADs) by the FAA is a critical safety function that varies based on identified fleet risks and agency bandwidth. Historically, the window from late May to mid-August has seen significant variance. In 2023, the count reached a high of 87 documents, while in 2024, it plummeted to 35. This 2024 drop was directly linked to the FAA’s emergency diversion of resources to Boeing after the Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 door-plug separation. By 2025, the count recovered to 63 documents, nearing the long-term average. The 2026 YTD period has been active, with 128 documents published through May 22, driven largely by bilateral harmonization with European authorities (EASA) and ongoing engine inspection campaigns for Pratt & Whitney. The agency has also undergone leadership changes, with Bryan Bedford confirmed as Administrator in July 2025, followed by a major structural reorganization in March 2026 aimed at streamlining safety oversight after a fatal 2025 mid-air collision.
Tailwinds
Headwinds
Detailed reasoning
My prediction for the number of FAA Airworthiness Directives (ADs) is heavily informed by a combination of recent publication velocity and historical same-window performance. Over the last four years, the count for the May 26 to August 12 window has fluctuated between 35 and 87. Specifically, the values were 78 (2022), 87 (2023), 35 (2024), and 63 (2025). The low value in 2024 is an important data point; it was attributed to the diversion of Aircraft Certification Service bandwidth toward emergency oversight following the Alaska Airlines door-plug incident. Excluding this outlier, the average for the window is approximately 76 documents.
Current 2026 data indicates that the FAA is operating at a high tempo. As of May 22, 2026, the agency had published 128 qualifying documents year-to-date. This averages to roughly 27 documents per month, or a daily rate of 0.90. Over the 79-day window in question, this pace projects a total of approximately 71 documents. Furthermore, the 78-day period immediately preceding this window (March 5 to May 22, 2026) produced 73 documents. This “inside view” suggest that the baseline for the upcoming period is significantly higher than the 50.5 upper-bound of the discrete integer bins.
I have weighted these factors to construct a distribution that prioritizes the current high-frequency regime. I center the most likely scenario around 70 documents, which aligns with both the 2026 YTD pace and the recent 78-day run rate. To account for potential volatility and capacity constraints, I include a secondary regime centered at 50, reflecting a moderate slowdown similar to 2025 levels, and a smaller probability for a 2024-style capacity block (centered at 38).
Structural factors support a steady pipeline of ADs. The FAA remains deeply engaged in harmonizing safety directives with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), particularly regarding Airbus Helicopters, which has already accounted for 27 documents YTD. Additionally, ongoing inspections of Pratt & Whitney GTF engine powdered-metal disks and a pending final rule for Boeing 737 fuselage skin cracks provide a guaranteed floor for regulatory activity. While “counter-currents” such as the Part 108 Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) rulemaking and Boeing production-rate reviews consume staff bandwidth, they have not yet caused the 2026 publication rate to dip toward the 2024 lows. The administrative restructuring in March 2026 and the 2026–2028 Workforce Plan also suggest an agency focused on maintaining safety oversight despite staffing shortages. Given that historical and recent averages are both well above 60, there is a high probability that the final count will fall into the open upper-tail category.
Key uncertainties
Conclusion