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Question: whether the CoinMarketCap (CMC) daily Fear & Greed Index will print ≥40 on its first daily value dated on/after 2026-07-12, with qualifying CMC data available by 2026-08-12 12:00 UTC. Resolution depends strictly on the official CMC endpoint; the most reliable recent CMC page read is ~32 on Jul 11 (8 points below the ≥40 threshold), while some third-party feeds (Convex/Alternative.me/CoinNess) showed lower values around 26–28, a material source disagreement. Multiple forecasters agree a crossing is plausible within days to a few weeks because spot momentum (BTC/ETH/SOL) and mostly net-positive ETF flows have improved, and historical mid‑30s regimes often cross quickly. They also agree CMC’s proprietary index weights volatility, options put/call skew, market composition, and social/engagement data, so choppy ETF flows, persistent put skew/IV, or narrow BTC-led rallies could prevent a clean move to neutral. A Convex-based Monte Carlo from a lower start (26) estimated roughly a 70% hit probability by Aug 12; forecasters rebasing to the official ~32 generally place event probability in the ~75–82% range, concentrated in mid–late July with a nontrivial tail for no qualifying print by Aug 12. Practical consensus: refresh official CMC values daily via the public API and treat third‑party feeds only as alerts, not resolution-grade data.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
All four analysts agree the index is currently 32 (Fear) and needs an +8-point move to reach the ≥40 threshold, with typical dynamics being (a) discrete daily updates (effectively date-level resolution at 00:00 UTC) and (b) sentiment regime persistence punctuated by occasional multi-point jumps.
Across the team, the implied median crossing date clusters in late July (roughly Jul 22–Jul 28). Forecasters 1 and 4 lean earlier (median ~Jul 22) based on recent rebound/drift mechanics; Forecaster 2 is a bit slower (median ~Jul 28) based on consolidation and moderate catalysts; Forecaster 3 assigns a materially heavier “stays fearful into/through mid-August” tail. Synthesizing these, I place the median slightly later than the optimistic pair but earlier than the most conservative tail-heavy view.
On tail risk: three of four forecasts allocate non-trivial probability to not reaching 40 by the Aug 12 (noon UTC) publication cutoff; I express this by placing p90 and above strictly past 2026-08-12 (into the open-after bin), corresponding to roughly ~10–15% chance of missing the window.
A typical amateur forecast would (1) extrapolate linearly from 32 to 40 (e.g., “8 days”) without accounting for regime persistence and jumpy day-to-day sentiment moves, and/or (2) fail to represent the meaningful chance the index never reaches 40 before the cutoff by incorrectly clustering late percentiles on the deadline date. This forecast instead anchors on the team’s empirically motivated late-July central tendency, preserves realistic short-term upside (fast jump) while keeping a non-trivial open-after tail, and uses strictly past-bound dates to correctly encode ‘misses the window’ probability. Confidence: moderate (crypto sentiment can shift quickly, but the within-team agreement on the center of mass is strong).
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the dominant view is that the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index is already close enough to 40 that it is likely to cross that level relatively soon. The main supporting factors are:
There is broad agreement that the median crossing date is in late July (roughly July 21–26), though there is some variation in exact timing. The main source of disagreement is not whether it will cross, but how quickly: some forecasts allow for a brief pause or pullback, while others emphasize a meaningful tail risk of delayed crossing if crypto-specific sentiment deteriorates. That uncertainty extends the outer range past August 12, with a smaller possibility of the threshold being reached much later if a new crypto downturn emerges.
— Iteration 2 — Overall, the reasoning points to a late-July 2026 crossing of 40, with the most likely window roughly July 22–31, and some chance it slips into early/mid-August.
The consensus is that the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index will first rise to or above 40 in late July 2026, with early August as the main backup window if sentiment recovery is slower than expected.
— Iteration 3 — Across the forecasts, the reasoning is broadly consistent:
Most forecasts expect the index to first reach 40 in late July or early August 2026, with central estimates clustering around July 24–25 or early August. The general view is that a near-term rebound is more likely than a prolonged delay.
The forecasts reflect a view that 40 is close enough to be reached soon under normal conditions, but with a non-trivial chance of delay if crypto remains depressed or if sentiment lags broader risk assets.
Question: On what date will the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index first rise to or above 40? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
The research reports that as of July 11, 2026 the CoinMarketCap (CMC) Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 32 (Fear), having risen from 16 a month ago and gained 6 points in the last 7 days; it needs an additional 8 points to reach 40 (the Neutral threshold). The analysis notes CMC’s methodology focuses on the top 10 non‑stablecoin cryptocurrencies and weights social trends, options/put‑call data, implied volatility, and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio. It emphasizes that recent momentum (a ~10% BTC bounce and sustained weekly gains) makes an 8‑point move plausibly achievable within the coming weeks.
The research catalogs bullish drivers (Bitcoin’s rebound from a July 1 low to the $64k range, renewed U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows, rapid whale accumulation, and a favorable Senate Banking Committee “Clarity Act” vote) and bearish headwinds (ongoing Mt. Gox creditor distributions and government wallet sales, a weak Ethereum performance across three negative quarters, and macro/inflation uncertainty). It finds no liquid prediction‑market contract for this exact index/date but points to Polymarket and related markets as useful proxies. Using base‑rate patterns, the report says sentiment typically mean‑reverts from extreme fear to Neutral within 3–5 weeks after capitulation and that a cooler‑than‑expected mid‑July U.S. inflation print could push the CMC index above 40 within 24–48 hours; hotter inflation could delay the move to late July or early August, though crossing before August 12 is judged the highest‑probability outcome based on the current +6 point weekly trajectory.
Sources used (as cited in the research):
As your assistant, I have compiled a detailed rundown of the current market landscape, news catalysts, prediction market data, and base rates to help you forecast when the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index will cross the 40 threshold before August 12, 2026.
The CoinMarketCap (CMC) Fear and Greed Index differs from the classic Alternative.me index by explicitly tracking the top 10 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) and weighing proprietary social trend data, put/call ratios, implied volatility, and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio [1][25].
To hit the target of 40 (which borders on “Neutral”), the index needs to gain 8 points. It has successfully gained 6 points over the last 7 days.
The crypto market is currently in a tug-of-war between strong fundamental adoption and significant supply-side overhangs.
Bullish Catalysts (Pushing the Index Up):
Bearish Catalysts (Holding the Index Down):
While prediction markets have matured rapidly—with Polymarket processing $21.5 billion in volume in 2025 and seeing investments from the NYSE parent company [4]—a liquid market for this exact date and threshold does not currently exist.
However, we can look at historical prediction markets for sentiment indexes to gauge reliability:
To form your baseline forecast, consider the historical behavior of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index during market recoveries:
Strategic Takeaway for Forecasting: The most critical variables for your timeline are the release date of the upcoming U.S. inflation reports and the completion of the Mt. Gox creditor distributions [17]. If inflation data prints cooler than expected in mid-July, the resulting macro tailwind combined with recent ETF inflows will likely snap the CMC index across the 40-mark within 24-48 hours of the announcement. If the data is hot, the market may chop sideways, delaying the crossing until late July or early August, but an eventual crossing before the August 12 deadline remains the highest-probability outcome based on the current +6 point weekly trajectory.
I accept the critic’s main calibration correction. The “32 daily opportunities” should not be treated as independent chances: the index’s momentum, volatility, derivatives, breadth, and social components are serially correlated. A persistent bearish regime could suppress every observation through the deadline. This supports lowering the qualifying probability from 91% to approximately 89%.
The absence of CMC-specific transition statistics remains the largest evidential weakness. Without historical first-passage rates from the 30–34 range—ideally conditioned on the preceding weekly slope—differences between 89% and 91% are necessarily judgmental.
I still defend the late-July center:
The muted index response to Bitcoin’s rebound remains ambiguous. It may indicate poor breadth and weak confirmation, but it could also mean lagging components have room to catch up. I therefore treat it primarily as uncertainty-expanding evidence rather than an unambiguously bearish signal.
The first eligible observation deserves little—but not negligible—probability. The question opening two hours before July 12 does not necessarily mean that observation reflects only two hours of market information: it may incorporate movement since the previous daily fixing. Nevertheless, without evidence of a late July 11 breakout, the early tail should remain small. Under the non-inclusive convention, an actual July 23 median is reported as a July 24 boundary.
My approximate regime mixture is:
Failure to cross by late July would be strongly informative. It would suggest that weak breadth or an adverse market regime is dominating, causing the subsequent hazard to fall sharply. Consequently, the right tail conditional on missing the deadline remains broad rather than clustering immediately after August 12.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-07-13
Percentile 1: 2026-07-14
Percentile 5: 2026-07-16
Percentile 10: 2026-07-17
Percentile 20: 2026-07-19
Percentile 30: 2026-07-21
Percentile 40: 2026-07-23
Percentile 50: 2026-07-24
Percentile 60: 2026-07-27
Percentile 70: 2026-07-30
Percentile 80: 2026-08-04
Percentile 90: 2026-08-18
Percentile 95: 2026-10-15
Percentile 99: 2027-06-15
Percentile 99.9: 2028-04-01
The Round 2 critic identifies several valid reasons to reduce confidence modestly:
I still defend three elements of the previous forecast.
First, the move from 26 to 32 is useful evidence even after avoiding narrative double-counting. It demonstrates recent index responsiveness and positive momentum, rather than merely supplying a bullish story.
Second, this remains a first-passage question. One transient reading qualifies, so a brief rally, volatility adjustment, or unusually favorable component update can resolve the question even if the broader recovery subsequently reverses.
Third, while the observations are correlated, the month-long window still permits multiple distinct catalysts and market phases. It is therefore materially more favorable than a one-week window, although not equivalent to 31 independent trials.
The most appropriate model is a regime mixture:
I now estimate approximately 82% probability of crossing by the August 12 cutoff, down from 85%. The reduction reflects autocorrelation, the potential 35–39 trap, and uncertainty about the proprietary index. I retain approximately 40% probability of crossing by July 20 and a median qualifying day around July 23, reported as July 24 under the requested non-inclusive percentile convention. Failure to cross by July 20 would be meaningful negative evidence, so the subsequent hazard should be lower rather than smoothly constant.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-07-13
Percentile 1: 2026-07-13
Percentile 5: 2026-07-15
Percentile 10: 2026-07-16
Percentile 20: 2026-07-17
Percentile 30: 2026-07-19
Percentile 40: 2026-07-21
Percentile 50: 2026-07-24
Percentile 60: 2026-07-28
Percentile 70: 2026-08-02
Percentile 80: 2026-08-10
Percentile 90: 2026-09-25
Percentile 95: 2026-12-15
Percentile 99: 2027-09-01
Percentile 99.9: 2029-03-01
Modal: Jul 11, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026 (25.0%) • frontier aggregate • 4m49s
Resolution sources/checks:
Edge cases:
frontier_1 - Modal: Jul 19, 2026 to Jul 27, 2026 (28.0%)
frontier_2 - Modal: Jul 11, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026 (33.0%)
frontier_3 - forecast unavailable
frontier_4 - Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026 (40.0%)
frontier_5 - Modal: Jul 11, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026 (34.0%)
Aggregate used 4/5 frontier lanes; failed/excluded lane(s): frontier_3.
| Agent | Error |
|---|---|
| frontier_1 | all_providers_failed: [{“gemini”, {:api_error_at_turn, 1, …}}] |
Material notes
Guidance
Revision
| Bin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Jul 19, 2026 to Jul 27, 2026 | 18.9% |
| Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 04, 2026 | 14.6% |
| Aug 04, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026 | 10.1% |
| Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Sep 13, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026 | 6.1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026 | 2.7% |
| Nov 15, 2026 to Dec 16, 2026 | 2.0% |
| After Dec 16, 2026 | 1.4% |
wooley_rhino • run 4d648965 • $1.2 • 4m49s
Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1783814400.0, 1.0: 1783900800.0, 5.0: 1784073600.0, 10.0: 1784246400.0, 15.0: 1784419200.0, 20.0: 1784505600.0, 25.0: 1784678400.0, 30.0: 1784764800.0, 35.0: 1784937600.0, 40.0: 1785110400.0, 45.0: 1785283200.0, 46.0: 1785283200.0, 47.0: 1785369600.0, 48.0: 1785369600.0, 49.0: 1785456000.0, 50.0: 1785456000.0, 51.0: 1785542400.0, 52.0: 1785542400.0, 53.0: 1785628800.0, 54.0: 1785715200.0, 55.0: 1785715200.0, 60.0: 1785888000.0, 65.0: 1786060800.0, 70.0: 1786233600.0, 75.0: 1786492800.0, 80.0: 1786492800.0, 85.0: 1786492800.0, 90.0: 1786492800.0, 95.0: 1786492800.0, 99.0: 1786492800.0, 99.9: 1786492800.0}
Model’s Answer:
Step one: Understand the resolution mechanics. The CMC Fear and Greed Index updates once daily, so this question can resolve on any calendar day from 2026-07-12 through 2026-08-12. There are 31 possible resolution dates. If no qualifying value appears, it resolves as “>2026-08-12.”
Step two: Assess the current state and required movement. The index stands at 32 on 2026-07-11 and needs +8 more points to reach 40. The recent trajectory: ~16 one month ago → ~26 one week ago → 31 yesterday → 32 today. This represents roughly +16 points over 30 days (~0.53/day), +6 points over 7 days (~0.86/day), decelerating to +1 yesterday.
Step three: Identify key assumptions whose failure would most drastically alter the forecast.
The first critical assumption is that the current upward momentum continues. If Bitcoin price action stalls or reverses (plausible given the noted bearish four-hour technicals and the fact that 2026 has been a poor year for crypto with ~50% drawdown from ATH), the index could plateau or fall. I assign ~30-35% probability this assumption fails.
The second critical assumption is that the rate of gain remains ~0.5–1 point/day. Even with an upward trend, the rate of change matters enormously. Given deceleration (from 0.86/day to 0.14/day most recently), the trend could slow further. I assign ~40% probability it’s materially slower than 0.5/day going forward.
The third critical assumption is that no major negative crypto news event (hack, regulatory crackdown, exchange failure) resets sentiment back toward extreme fear. Such events have historically wiped out multi-week sentiment gains overnight. I assign ~15% probability of a significant negative shock.
Step four: Why earlier resolution is possible. Bitcoin was grinding from ~$58.5k to ~$64k over early July. A meaningful price breakout above $70k, driven by ETF inflows or positive macro news, could add 4-5 index points in a single day. The Ethereum Fear and Greed Index is already at 51 (neutral), meaning parts of the market are healthier. A spillover into the CMC composite is plausible. At the recent weekly pace of +6 points, the index could reach 40 around July 21-22.
Why later (or no) resolution: The rate deceleration is notable. The market has been in structural fear for most of 2026 (62% of days historically in fear). Bitcoin’s technical trend is still described as bearish. The index was at 71 as recently as July 2025 but spent the entire first half of 2026 between 5 and ~35. There is meaningful chance (~25%) it fails to cross 40 before August 12.
Step five: Build the distribution. Conditional on reaching 40: Expected ~8-16 days from today depending on rate, so the median resolution is roughly July 27-August 1. Total probability of resolution within window: ~75%. The remaining ~25% resolves as “>2026-08-12.”
Percentile .1: 2026-07-12 Percentile 1: 2026-07-13 Percentile 5: 2026-07-15 Percentile 10: 2026-07-17 Percentile 15: 2026-07-19 Percentile 20: 2026-07-20 Percentile 25: 2026-07-22 Percentile 30: 2026-07-23 Percentile 35: 2026-07-25 Percentile 40: 2026-07-27 Percentile 45: 2026-07-29 Percentile 46: 2026-07-29 Percentile 47: 2026-07-30 Percentile 48: 2026-07-30 Percentile 49: 2026-07-31 Percentile 50: 2026-07-31 Percentile 51: 2026-08-01 Percentile 52: 2026-08-01 Percentile 53: 2026-08-02 Percentile 54: 2026-08-03 Percentile 55: 2026-08-03 Percentile 60: 2026-08-05 Percentile 65: 2026-08-07 Percentile 70: 2026-08-09 Percentile 75: 2026-08-12 Percentile 80: 2026-08-12 Percentile 85: 2026-08-12 Percentile 90: 2026-08-12 Percentile 95: 2026-08-12 Percentile 99: 2026-08-12 Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-12
Daily cadence and a 0–100 bounded scale limit how quickly market sentiment can reclassify.
Long-run history sits near neutral, so low-30s are an excursion within a norm rather than a persistent regime.
Recent token price rebounds and momentum have lifted short-term signals but are backed by mixed flow and open-interest data.
Search and social engagement remain weak, reducing the durability of any early sentiment gains.
Sustained ETF inflows, falling volatility, or a surge in engagement would tilt the index above 40 within days; absent them, recovery stalls.
Because values publish at the 00:00 UTC stamp, crossing events concentrate around accumulated short-term moves rather than intraday spikes.
Undisclosed component weights and autocorrelated historical starts make sample-based probabilities sensitive to the recent path.
Daily-timing noise and a small low-30s sample leave a nontrivial tail where the threshold is missed before the cutoff.
Forecast: 2026-07-26
On what date will the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index first rise to or above 40?
Key figures
Historical context
Tailwinds
Headwinds
Detailed reasoning
My analysis for predicting when the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index will reach or exceed 40 is based on three primary pillars: current sentiment momentum, immediate legislative and macroeconomic catalysts, and historical mean-reversion patterns.
Current Momentum and Baseline Sentiment: As of July 11, 2026, the index stands at 32, categorized as “Fear.” Crucially, this reflects a significant recovery from late June 2026, when the index bottomed near 10 (“Extreme Fear”). In roughly two weeks, the index has gained 22 points, tracking a Bitcoin recovery from approximately $58,500 to $64,000. An 8-point increase to reach 40 is a relatively small hurdle; historical data from May 2026 shows the index routinely swinging between 31 and 52 in a single month. This indicates that even a modest positive shift in market momentum could trigger the event.
Legislative and Macroeconomic Catalysts: The last two weeks of July 2026 are dense with potential market-moving events. The “Clarity Act,” a major piece of crypto legislation, is targeted for a Senate floor vote during the week of July 20. Positive movement on this bill would likely serve as a powerful sentiment booster. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on July 29 represents a binary catalyst. If the Fed adopts a dovish tone or if June CPI data (released July 14) shows cooling inflation, risk-on sentiment is likely to return to the crypto market. Polymarket data supports this view, showing a 90% probability of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 in July.
Headwinds and Timing Risks: Counterbalancing the recovery momentum are significant geopolitical and structural headwinds. The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire on July 8 and subsequent strikes in the Strait of Hormuz have created a “risk-off” environment that could suppress sentiment for longer than technical indicators suggest. Additionally, negative exchange premiums on Coinbase and continued ETF outflows in late June suggest institutional demand remains fragile.
Synthesis: Given that the index is only 8 points away and exhibits positive short-term momentum, I weight the probability of a crossing in late July heavily. The median date of July 31st aligns with the aftermath of the FOMC meeting and the targeted legislative window, periods where volatility and momentum—two core components of the index—are typically elevated. If the index fails to cross in this window, the forecast shifts toward a stabilization phase in August, as seen in previous cycles (e.g., the February-to-April recovery in early 2026). The high probability (77%) of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 by year-end further reinforces the likelihood of a sentiment normalization within the third quarter of 2026.
Key uncertainties
Conclusion