Scenario wins: cassi (114) smingers-bot (48) SynapseSeer (12) preseen (11) Mantic (7) laertes (5)
Question: will the Senate pass a subsequent budget-reconciliation bill (after S.2) that qualifies during the scoring window and before the Aug. 12, 2026 cutoff? All teams agree the June 5 passage of S.2 occurred before the window, so any resolving bill would need to be a later “Recon 3.0” using new reconciliation instructions. Forecasters note strong obstacles: S.2 likely consumed FY2026 instructions, no FY2027 budget resolution/instructions were adopted as of early June, top Senate Republicans (McConnell, Collins, Thune and appropriators) have publicly signaled resistance, Byrd Rule and scoring issues have already complicated S.2, and the Senate calendar has limited floor time before Aug. 12. House and White House pressure keeps a late package possible, but most teams assign low odds—roughly 12–13%—concentrated in a late‑July/early‑August window if leadership rapidly creates and advances a vehicle. The recommended monitoring gates are: new budget-resolution instructions, explicit Senate GOP leadership commitment to floor action, text surviving Byrd Rule/CBO/JCT review, and available floor time before the cutoff.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
All analysts agree the most recent reconciliation bill (passed June 5, 2026) is outside the resolution window, so this question concerns whether the Senate passes an additional, newly-designated reconciliation bill after 2026-06-14.
Key drivers for the next passage date are (a) whether there are still usable reconciliation instructions available (or whether a new budget resolution would be needed), (b) Senate floor-time constraints heading into the August recess, and (c) intra-party vote math and willingness to run another major reconciliation vehicle quickly. The team’s evidence points to active discussion of a possible “Reconciliation 3.0” but also notable Senate skepticism and an extremely tight procedural calendar; historically, reconciliation bills are infrequent and typically take longer than the remaining ~8 weeks to line up text, committees, and floor action.
Synthesis: I put a low-but-nontrivial chance that leadership forces a late-July/early-August sprint (roughly 10–20% in-window). The majority probability is that no qualifying bill passes before 2026-08-12T12:00Z, so most percentiles are placed strictly past the upper bound to correctly encode open-tail mass (i.e., “after the deadline”).
An amateur forecast would likely (1) over-extrapolate from the early-June reconciliation activity and headlines about a new package, and (2) mistakenly pile probability at the deadline date itself instead of using strictly post-bound dates to represent “not by the deadline.” This forecast explicitly prices the procedural/calendar constraints and expresses the dominant scenario via the open-after tail, while still leaving a meaningful minority chance of an accelerated late-July/early-August passage.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Overall, the forecasts treat summer 2026 as the most likely window for the Senate’s next reconciliation passage, with the center of gravity in mid-July to early August, and some chance of an even earlier late June / early July push before the July 4 recess.
The collective view is that the Senate’s next reconciliation bill is most likely to pass in July or early August 2026, with late June / early July as an upside-early possibility and a nontrivial chance of delay into fall 2026 or later if procedural or political obstacles intensify.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning pattern is that an active reconciliation process is already underway, which makes passage relatively likely in the near term, but procedural and political frictions keep the timing uncertain.
The collective reasoning suggests a summer 2026 passage window, centered on late June to early August, but with uncertainty driven by procedural bottlenecks and negotiations. The forecasts agree that passage is plausible soon, yet disagree on whether the Senate will meet the early summer target or slip into the fall.
— Iteration 3 — Overall, the forecasts converge on a low near-term chance of the Senate next passing a budget reconciliation bill, with the most likely window shifting to the 2027 budget cycle rather than summer 2026.
The collective view is that the Senate is unlikely to pass another reconciliation bill immediately, with late 2026 still possible but not favored; the center of gravity is mid-2027, when a new budget cycle would create the cleanest procedural path.
Based on the consensus across all rationales, the prospect of the U.S. Senate passing a budget reconciliation bill before the August 12, 2026 deadline faces virtually insurmountable procedural, temporal, and political obstacles.
Recent Exhaustion of Reconciliation Instructions Congress recently exhausted its active reconciliation vehicle by passing the “Secure America Act” in early June 2026. Because this process is complete, the Senate cannot simply advance a new bill; it must start entirely from scratch by drafting and adopting a new concurrent budget resolution for Fiscal Year 2027.
Procedural Hurdles and a Compressed Calendar The structural requirements of reconciliation—including committee markups, CBO scoring, the Parliamentarian’s “Byrd Bath,” and a floor “vote-a-rama”—are incredibly time-consuming. Historically, this process averages several months. The Senate calendar lacks the necessary runway, as lawmakers have very few legislative working days before their scheduled August recess. Furthermore, the limited available floor time is already consumed by “must-pass” legislation, such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and regular appropriations bills to avert a government shutdown.
Intra-Party Opposition and Midterm Pressures While there is pressure from the House and the Executive Branch to pass a “Reconciliation 3.0” package, Senate Republican leadership and key moderate senators are deeply opposed. Given the GOP’s razor-thin majority, any defections would doom the effort. Additionally, passing a massive, highly partisan reconciliation package during the summer of a midterm election year is historically exceptionally rare, as vulnerable incumbents are averse to taking controversial votes just months before an election.
Conclusion Due to the lack of an active budget resolution, an overwhelmingly congested summer calendar, and unified resistance from necessary Senate swing votes, the rationales universally agree that the next budget reconciliation bill will not be passed until well after the August deadline—likely in a post-election lame-duck session, or under a new Congress in 2027 or beyond.
Question: When will the U.S. Senate next pass a budget reconciliation bill? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
The research reports that the Senate just passed a budget reconciliation bill on June 4–5, 2026: a $70 billion immigration/ICE package (“Reconciliation 2.0”) that passed 52–47 and was signed into law by President Trump. It notes President Trump publicly urged immediate passage of a third reconciliation bill (“Recon 3.0”) on June 10–11, 2026—a proposed $350 billion defense-focused package that would include the “SAVE America Act” election-integrity provisions. House leaders (Speaker Mike Johnson and the Republican Study Committee chair) signaled plans to try to move a bill in the coming weeks or before the August recess, while at least some House Republicans expressed skepticism.
The research emphasizes strong Senate-level opposition and procedural constraints: Senate leaders including John Thune, Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell, and John Kennedy expressed doubt or opposition; margins in both chambers are razor-thin (218 in the House, 50 in the Senate), the Senate faces an August 10 recess and multiple competing floor priorities, and the Senate just completed a difficult reconciliation process 10 days earlier. It cites historical and parliamentary precedent (reconciliation created in 1974; Congress can pass up to three reconciliation bills per year; 2010 shows reconciliation can be executed within a ~2-month window) and limited prediction-market signals showing skepticism. The assessment in the research gives a low probability of passage before the August recess, places the most likely alternative as no passage by Aug 12, 2026, identifies late July (July 20–31) as the most plausible narrow window if passage occurs, and provides a quantitative estimate of about a 15–25% chance of passage before Aug 12, 2026 (75–85% chance of no passage by then).
Sources used in the research (as named in the report):
(The research also cites multiple news reports and Senate statements for vote coverage, Recon 2.0 passage, Recon 3.0 proposals, Senate leadership comments, and House perspectives—these items were referenced by numbered citations in the research [2][3][4][6][7][9][10][11][12][13][15][17][18][21][22][23][24][26][29], but direct URLs for those specific numbered citations were not provided in the document I summarized.)
The U.S. Senate just passed a budget reconciliation bill on June 4-5, 2026 - a $70 billion immigration and ICE funding package (informally called “Reconciliation 2.0”) that passed 52-47 after an 18-hour “vote-a-rama” [4][7]. This bill was signed into law by President Trump and represents the second reconciliation bill of 2026, following the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” passed in July 2025 [21][23].
President Trump called on June 10-11, 2026 for Congress to “IMMEDIATELY” pass a third reconciliation bill worth $350 billion for defense spending, including the “SAVE America Act” (voter ID/election integrity provisions) [11][15][29]. Trump framed this as the “only path” to a $1.5 trillion military budget to fund projects like the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, F-47s, and ammunition stockpiles [15][29].
House Position:
Senate Position - Significant Skepticism:
Critical Constraints:
Reconciliation Bill Frequency: According to Wikipedia [21][23], the reconciliation process was created in 1974 and first used in 1980. Congress can pass a maximum of three reconciliation bills per year (one each affecting spending, revenue, and debt limit), though in practice it has often passed a single bill affecting both.
Recent Reconciliation Bills Enacted:
Key Historical Precedent - 2010 Health Care: The Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 provides a relevant case study [22]. After losing their Senate supermajority in January 2010 with Scott Brown’s election, Democrats used reconciliation to pass amendments to the ACA. The reconciliation bill passed the Senate on March 25, 2010, roughly 2 months after the loss of their supermajority. This shows reconciliation can be executed within a 2-month window when there’s party unity.
Multiple Reconciliation Bills in One Year: The Senate parliamentarian ruled in 2021 that the Senate can pass multiple budget reconciliation bills by using different fiscal years or revised budget resolutions [23]. The current Congress has already used this authority twice in 2026.
I was unable to locate specific prediction markets for Senate reconciliation bill passage. The only related market data found was for the CLARITY Act (cryptocurrency regulation):
These markets suggest general skepticism about major legislation passing in the near term given the compressed timeline and political constraints.
Most Likely Scenario: The question will resolve as >2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00 (no passage by the deadline), based on:
If Passage Occurs (Low Probability Scenario): The most likely window would be late July (July 20-31, 2026), allowing:
Quantitative Estimate: Based on the evidence, I would estimate:
This assessment aligns with Sen. Kennedy’s characterization of it as a “very, very long shot” [11] while acknowledging it’s technically possible given the precedent of passing multiple reconciliation bills and Trump’s strong advocacy.
Key sources: Senate vote-a-rama coverage [2][6], Recon 2.0 passage [4][7], Recon 3.0 proposals [11][12][15][29], Senate leadership skepticism [10][11][15][29], House Republican perspectives [3][13][17], reconciliation history and procedures [21][22][23].
(a) Time left until known: From 2026-06-14T17:18:09Z to the cutoff 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z is about 58 days, 18 hours, 42 minutes. The outcome will be known earlier if the Senate passes a qualifying reconciliation bill; otherwise it resolves to >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z. I am conditioning on non-annulment; if a bill passes, Senate roll-call/daily-digest records should make the date verifiable.
(b) Outside view: Reconciliation is expedited in the Senate, but the overall process is still usually weeks-to-months. CRS says enacted reconciliation bills since 1980 took 28 to 385 days from adoption of the budget resolution to enactment, averaging 152 days; Senate floor rules limit debate but still allow vote-a-rama and Byrd-rule fights. That makes a new Senate passage inside a 59-day window possible but not the default. (congress.gov)
(c) Inside view: The Senate very recently passed S. 2, the Secure America Act, as a reconciliation bill, 52-47, but that was before this question’s start time and thus does not qualify. It also illustrates both the feasibility of a party-line path and the caucus exhaustion/problematic amendment process. (govinfo.gov) The main next candidate is Trump’s proposed “Recon 3.0” defense/SAVE Act package, but leading Senate Republicans have publicly questioned or opposed using another reconciliation vehicle, and the official Senate calendar has major non-legislative periods from 2026-06-29 to 2026-07-10 and 2026-08-10 to 2026-09-11. (notus.org)
(d) Outcome if nothing changed: No Senate passage before the cutoff; resolution >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z.
(e) Outcome if the current trend continued: Also >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z. The current trend is presidential pressure plus House interest, but Senate resistance and lack of consensus.
(f) Experts and markets: Hill reporting points to strong skepticism among the key Senate players: McConnell said it was “safe to conclude” there would not be another reconciliation bill, Collins agreed, and Thune said getting 50 votes would be hard. The Fiscal Times similarly framed Trump’s demands as unlikely to be met, especially because SAVE Act provisions face reconciliation-rule problems and Senate support problems. (notus.org) I found no clean, liquid market specifically for a post-2026-06-14 Senate passage by the question deadline; the Polymarket pages I found mostly reflect already-resolved deadlines around the June 5 bill, so I treat markets as only weakly informative here. (polymarket.com)
(g) Unexpected low/earlier scenario: Trump, Johnson, and Thune abruptly strip out SAVE Act language, narrow the bill to defense money and offsets acceptable to fiscal hawks, and use existing reconciliation instructions to jam a Senate vote before or just after the July recess. That could put passage in late June or mid-July.
(h) Unexpected high/later scenario: Senate appropriators successfully force defense funding into regular appropriations or a later supplemental, no new reconciliation package reaches the floor before August recess, and after the 2026 midterms divided government delays the next reconciliation bill until a later Congress.
Rationale: My anchor is the outside view that reconciliation is faster than ordinary legislation in the Senate but not frictionless: the formal historical process averages far longer than this window, and even the expedited Senate floor process can get bogged down in Byrd-rule and vote-a-rama dynamics. (congress.gov) The biggest upward update is that Republicans have already shown they can pass a reconciliation bill in this Congress, with S. 2 clearing the Senate 52-47 very recently. (govinfo.gov) The biggest downward update is that the next vehicle is not a mature, consensus package: the Trump-backed $350B/SAVE Act proposal faces explicit opposition or skepticism from senior Senate Republicans, while the legislative calendar leaves little floor time before the August 12 cutoff. (notus.org)
I put the probability of a qualifying Senate passage by 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z at about 22%, leaving about 78% on >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z.
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-18 Percentile 1: 2026-06-26 Percentile 5: 2026-07-16 Percentile 10: 2026-07-24 Percentile 20: 2026-08-07 Percentile 30: 2026-09-25 Percentile 40: 2026-12-11 Percentile 50: 2027-04-30 Percentile 60: 2027-08-06 Percentile 70: 2028-03-31 Percentile 80: 2029-03-15 Percentile 90: 2030-07-31 Percentile 95: 2032-03-31 Percentile 99: 2036-12-31 Percentile 99.9: 2043-12-31
(a) Time left until outcome is known: From 2026-06-14T17:18:09Z to the cutoff 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z is about 58 days, 18 hours, 42 minutes. In practice, the de facto deadline is earlier unless the Senate delays or interrupts the August recess, because the Senate’s tentative schedule lists 2026-08-10 through 2026-09-11 as a state work period. (senate.gov)
(b) Outside view: Budget reconciliation is a high-salience but uncommon legislative vehicle. CRS says reconciliation bills enacted since 1980 have taken 28 to 385 days from adoption of the budget resolution to enactment, averaging about 152 days; multiple reconciliation measures within one Congress are possible but historically limited to a handful of Congresses, and recent practice often combines instructions into one omnibus bill. (congress.gov) The current Congress just demonstrated a fast path: S.Con.Res. 33 was adopted by both chambers in late April 2026, and the Senate passed S. 2 on 2026-06-05, roughly five weeks after bicameral budget-resolution adoption. (everycrsreport.com)
(c) Inside view: The biggest downward update is Senate resistance. Mitch McConnell said it was “safe to conclude” there would not be another reconciliation bill, Susan Collins agreed, and both framed defense reconciliation as an unreliable or bad approach. (notus.org) Senate Majority Leader Thune’s position appears conditional rather than committed: if there is a good reason and support, then perhaps it could get 218 House votes and 50 Senate votes. (thefiscaltimes.com) The SAVE America Act is a further poison pill: during the S. 2 vote-a-rama, a related amendment failed after a Byrd Rule point of order, with only 48 yeas to 50 nays on waiver. (govinfo.gov) Upward updates are that President Trump is pushing publicly for an immediate $350 billion “Recon 3.0,” and House GOP leaders are at least discussing movement “in the coming weeks.” (thefiscaltimes.com)
(d) Outcome if nothing changed: No qualifying Senate passage before 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z.
(e) Outcome if the current trend continued: The House/White House keep talking about a third bill, but Senate appropriators and leadership do not converge on a viable 50-vote package; the question resolves after 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z.
(f) Expectations of experts and markets: The strongest “expert” signals are the public statements from Senate insiders: McConnell/Collins are strongly negative, Kennedy reportedly said the third package was not looking good, while Thune is only open if support materializes. (notus.org) I did not find a clean, liquid market directly matching Senate passage of the next reconciliation bill by this cutoff; I therefore put little weight on market data here and mostly weight elite-legislative signals.
(g) Unexpected low/earlier scenario: Trump and Thune decide to strip non-budgetary election provisions, package only clearly budgetary defense/industrial-base mandatory spending, and pressure skeptical Republicans to accept a Senate-originating bill before the July 4 recess or in the first week back. That could put passage in late June or mid-July, but I assign very low probability to this because the current proposal is not yet a consensus vehicle.
(h) Unexpected high/later scenario: Senate appropriators successfully force the defense money into regular appropriations or a later supplemental; SAVE Act demands keep poisoning the reconciliation route; the August recess begins; then no qualifying bill passes by the deadline. This is my modal scenario.
Rationale: I start from the base rate that reconciliation can move quickly under unified government but usually does not: historical average completion is about five months, and multiple reconciliation bills in one Congress are uncommon. The current Congress has already shown an unusually fast reconciliation process, which prevents me from going too low. But the specific inside-view evidence is mostly negative: key Senate Republicans are not merely undecided but publicly skeptical; the proposal’s SAVE Act component has already run into Byrd Rule and vote-count problems; and the legislative calendar leaves only a narrow July window before the August recess. I therefore put roughly 18% on a qualifying Senate passage by 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z, concentrated in late July/early August if it happens, and roughly 82% on the outcome falling after the cutoff.
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-25 Percentile 1: 2026-07-14 Percentile 5: 2026-07-23 Percentile 10: 2026-07-31 Percentile 20: 2026-08-20 Percentile 30: 2026-09-18 Percentile 40: 2026-11-20 Percentile 50: 2027-02-15 Percentile 60: 2027-08-01 Percentile 70: 2028-03-01 Percentile 80: 2029-01-15 Percentile 90: 2031-01-15 Percentile 95: 2034-01-15 Percentile 99: 2040-01-01 Percentile 99.9: 2050-01-01
Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 (34.8%) • frontier aggregate • 5m27s
Edge cases:
| Agent | Forecast | Rationale | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| frontier_1 | Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 (65.0%) | Evidence indicates the Senate already passed S.2 (Secure America Act) on June 5, 2026, reportedly as an FY2026 budget reconciliation vehicle. That is before the question’s observat | complete |
| frontier_2 | Modal: After Apr 04, 2027 (25.0%) | As of June 14, 2026, the Senate already passed its second reconciliation bill (S.2, Secure America Act) on June 5, 2026 — just before the question window opens. For another reconci | complete |
| frontier_3 | Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 (30.0%) | As of mid-June 2026, the Senate recently passed ‘Reconciliation 2.0’. While discussions around ‘Reconciliation 3.0’ (a major tax-focused bill) are actively beginning, Republicans r | complete |
| frontier_4 | Modal: After Apr 04, 2027 (18.4%) | Research shows the prior reconciliation package (Secure America Act / Reconciliation 2.0) passed in early June 2026, before range_min_utc. No bill or vote schedule exists for the J | complete |
No material evidence issues flagged.
All four frontier agents used relevant, authoritative sources (Congress.gov / Senate roll-call pages or major news reporting) and explicitly recognized that the June 5 Senate passage of S.2 predates the observation window. No agent appears to have ignored direct resolving sources or misinterpreted the resolution criteria. Differences are primarily in how much mass to place on the post-window tail vs. a small short-window chance; this is an acceptable epistemic disagreement rather than an evidence-fit error.
Agreement: Aggregated 4 comparable prediction maps on the canonical bin space.
Disagreement: See per-agent rationales: Evidence indicates the Senate already passed S.2 (Secure America Act) on June 5, 2026, reportedly as an FY2026 budget reconciliation vehicle. That is before the question’s observation window, so the ‘next’ qualifying passage in-window would most likely be a subsequent Senate vote on a conference report if the House amends the bill. If the House instead accepts the Senate bill unchanged, there would be no additional Senate final-passage vote before Aug 12. Given typical timelines and the approaching August recess, I assign a minority chance that a conference report (or another reconciliation bill) receives a Senate final-passage vote in July, with the larger mass on no in-window passage. / As of June 14, 2026, the Senate already passed its second reconciliation bill (S.2, Secure America Act) on June 5, 2026 — just before the question window opens. For another reconciliation bill to pass in the June 14 – Aug 12 window, Congress would need to first adopt a new FY2027 budget resolution with reconciliation instructions, then complete committee markups, vote-a-rama, and final passage. Reports indicate Speaker Johnson is pushing for a third reconciliation, but Senate leadership is non-committal and prospects are described as ‘grim.’ The August recess and lack of any visible FY2027 budget resolution on the floor make passage within ~8 weeks unlikely. I assign ~12% total probability to passage in window, weighted toward the later bins (late July/early August if it happens at all, given the typical pre-recess push), and ~88% to the >Aug 12 outcome distributed across bins 8-12, with mass tapering further out. / As of mid-June 2026, the Senate recently passed ‘Reconciliation 2.0’. While discussions around ‘Reconciliation 3.0’ (a major tax-focused bill) are actively beginning, Republicans reportedly lack consensus. Creating and passing a massive reconciliation bill from scratch—including scorekeeping, committee markups, House and Senate floor votes, and a Senate vote-a-rama—usually takes months, not weeks. The GOP’s self-imposed ‘aggressive timeline’ to pass it before the August recess strongly signals their intent, but such compressed Congressional timelines almost always face slippage, particularly during a midterm election year. Due to the tight turnaround, there is a low probability of passage in June or early July, rising slightly in late July and early August (15-20% combined) right before the deadline. However, a significant majority of the probability (~73%) sits out of bounds (after August 12), anticipating routine delays, lack of consensus, and typical August recess dynamics that will push passage into the Fall or beyond.
Mechanical frontier aggregation via logit_mean across 4 successful agents.
(frontier_1) Evidence indicates the Senate already passed S.2 (Secure America Act) on June 5, 2026, reportedly as an FY2026 budget reconciliation vehicle. That is before the question’s observation window, so the ‘next’ qualifying passage in-window would most likely be a subsequent Senate vote on a conference report if the House amends the bill. If the House instead accepts the Senate bill unchanged, there would be no additional Senate final-passage vote before Aug 12. Given typical timelines and the approaching August recess, I assign a minority chance that a conference report (or another reconciliation bill) receives a Senate final-passage vote in July, with the larger mass on no in-window passage.
(frontier_2) As of June 14, 2026, the Senate already passed its second reconciliation bill (S.2, Secure America Act) on June 5, 2026 — just before the question window opens. For another reconciliation bill to pass in the June 14 – Aug 12 window, Congress would need to first adopt a new FY2027 budget resolution with reconciliation instructions, then complete committee markups, vote-a-rama, and final passage. Reports indicate Speaker Johnson is pushing for a third reconciliation, but Senate leadership is non-committal and prospects are described as ‘grim.’ The August recess and lack of any visible FY2027 budget resolution on the floor make passage within ~8 weeks unlikely. I assign ~12% total probability to passage in window, weighted toward the later bins (late July/early August if it happens at all, given the typical pre-recess push), and ~88% to the >Aug 12 outcome distributed across bins 8-12, with mass tapering further out.
(frontier_3) As of mid-June 2026, the Senate r…
| Bin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 to Jun 22, 2026 | 0.7% |
| Jun 22, 2026 to Jun 29, 2026 | 1.3% |
| Jun 29, 2026 to Jul 06, 2026 | 1.9% |
| Jul 06, 2026 to Jul 14, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Jul 14, 2026 to Jul 21, 2026 | 3.8% |
| Jul 21, 2026 to Jul 28, 2026 | 4.1% |
| Jul 28, 2026 to Aug 05, 2026 | 4.6% |
| Aug 05, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026 | 3.4% |
| Aug 12, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 | 34.8% |
| Oct 10, 2026 to Dec 07, 2026 | 11.8% |
| Dec 07, 2026 to Feb 04, 2027 | 10.3% |
| Feb 04, 2027 to Apr 04, 2027 | 7.9% |
| After Apr 04, 2027 | 12.4% |
wooley_rhino • run c05cc06d • $3.91 • 5m27s
Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1784073600.0, 1.0: 1784592000.0, 5.0: 1785196800.0, 10.0: 1785801600.0, 15.0: 1786060800.0, 20.0: 1786579200.0, 25.0: 1786579200.0, 30.0: 1786579200.0, 35.0: 1786579200.0, 40.0: 1786579200.0, 45.0: 1786579200.0, 46.0: 1786579200.0, 47.0: 1786579200.0, 48.0: 1786579200.0, 49.0: 1786579200.0, 50.0: 1786579200.0, 51.0: 1786579200.0, 52.0: 1786579200.0, 53.0: 1786579200.0, 54.0: 1786579200.0, 55.0: 1786579200.0, 60.0: 1786579200.0, 65.0: 1786579200.0, 70.0: 1786579200.0, 75.0: 1786579200.0, 80.0: 1786579200.0, 85.0: 1786579200.0, 90.0: 1786579200.0, 95.0: 1786579200.0, 99.0: 1786579200.0, 99.9: 1786579200.0}
Model’s Answer: Looking at this question, I need to forecast when the U.S. Senate will next pass a budget reconciliation bill between June 14 and August 12, 2026.
Current Status:
Political Context:
Calendar Constraints:
Procedural Reality: No formal legislative vehicle exists. A reconciliation bill would require: new budget resolution instructions, committee markup, CBO scoring, floor debate, vote-a-rama, and final passage - typically taking weeks to months.
Key Assumptions:
Given no bill exists, limited calendar, and no hard deadline, I estimate:
Earlier outcome scenario: If Trump pressures leadership successfully and Republicans coalesce quickly around a defense package, floor action could happen late July/early August. Likelihood: ~15%
Later outcome scenario: Without an immediate crisis or deadline, the procedural steps and internal negotiations push any reconciliation bill past the August recess into fall. Likelihood: ~85%
Senate votes occur only on session days. Possible dates in the window:
If passage occurs within the window, most likely late July to early August (after July 10 recess). If not by August 12, resolves to >August 12.
Percentile 0.1: 2026-07-15 Percentile 1: 2026-07-21 Percentile 5: 2026-07-28 Percentile 10: 2026-08-04 Percentile 15: 2026-08-07 Percentile 20: 2026-08-13 Percentile 25: 2026-08-13 Percentile 30: 2026-08-13 Percentile 35: 2026-08-13 Percentile 40: 2026-08-13 Percentile 45: 2026-08-13 Percentile 46: 2026-08-13 Percentile 47: 2026-08-13 Percentile 48: 2026-08-13 Percentile 49: 2026-08-13 Percentile 50: 2026-08-13 Percentile 51: 2026-08-13 Percentile 52: 2026-08-13 Percentile 53: 2026-08-13 Percentile 54: 2026-08-13 Percentile 55: 2026-08-13 Percentile 60: 2026-08-13 Percentile 65: 2026-08-13 Percentile 70: 2026-08-13 Percentile 75: 2026-08-13 Percentile 80: 2026-08-13 Percentile 85: 2026-08-13 Percentile 90: 2026-08-13 Percentile 95: 2026-08-13 Percentile 99: 2026-08-13 Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-13
Reconciliation requires a new or revised budget resolution and a narrow Senate majority willing to sustain party-line votes.
Congressional calendar and committee deadlines create short, discrete floor windows before the August recess.
The House and the President are signaling appetite for a third package, increasing the chance of a vehicle being produced.
Senate Republican leaders and several pivotal senators are publicly skeptical, making passage contingent on limited defections.
A written, usable reconciliation vehicle by late July is the principal conditional pivot.
If the House passes a compatible vehicle and the Senate can secure a procedural path, floor votes could happen in the July–early August Senate-only windows.
Private whip counts, the package’s content, and presidential demands are the chief unresolved variables.
A canceled recess, a narrow procedural workaround, or unexpected defections would materially shift the date distribution; absent those, the odds remain low with mass after July 20.
Forecast: median = N/A (no P50)
The Senate is unlikely to pass another budget reconciliation bill before the late-July/early-August cutoff; the next realistic chance is mostly after that window.
When will the U.S. Senate next pass a budget reconciliation bill?
Key figures
Historical context
Historically, budget reconciliation has been used to bypass the 60-vote filibuster threshold for high-priority fiscal legislation. Notable examples include the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017), the American Rescue Plan (2021), and the Inflation Reduction Act (2022). These bills are typically passed during the first year of a presidential term or the first session of a new Congress. In the current 119th Congress, the Senate has already utilized the process twice: once in 2025 for a major tax bill and again in early June 2026 for immigration funding (S. 2). Using reconciliation three times in a single two-year Congress is historically rare, as it requires multiple budget resolutions or complex revisions to existing ones. The most recent successful passage occurred on June 5, 2026, where the Senate passed the Secure America Act 52-47 after an 18-hour “vote-a-rama.”
Tailwinds
Headwinds
Detailed reasoning
My analysis for the next Senate passage of a budget reconciliation bill centers on a tension between aggressive executive-led pressure and deep intra-party divisions within the Senate. As of June 14, 2026, the Senate has already passed two reconciliation bills in the current cycle: a tax-focused measure in 2025 and a $70 billion immigration enforcement bill (S. 2, the Secure America Act) passed on June 5, 2026. Because S. 2 passed before the start of this forecast window, I am forecasting the third potential bill.
Current political dynamics create a high-risk, low-certainty environment for 2026. President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson are pushing for “Reconciliation 3.0,” a $350 billion package intended to fund the Pentagon and pass the SAVE America Act. However, Senate leadership signals are overwhelmingly negative. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins and former leader Mitch McConnell have publicly declared another reconciliation bill “unlikely” and “not an option.” The failure of the SAVE America Act in a 48-50 test vote on June 11, 2026, confirms that the GOP majority—which can only afford three defections—is currently fractured. Four Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, McConnell, and Tillis) voted against the measure, suggesting that a reconciliation package containing these same elements would currently fail.
I have structured the forecast around four primary temporal windows. The first is the “July Sprint” (July 11 – August 9, 2026). This represents the last viable period for action before the month-long August recess and the height of the midterm election cycle. While House Republicans are aiming for this window, the complexity of the Byrd Rule (which prohibits non-budgetary provisions in reconciliation) and the need for a CBO score make this a difficult lift. I assign only a moderate probability to this window.
If 2026 action fails, the forecast shifts to the 120th Congress in 2027. Historically, the first session of a new Congress is the most common time for passing reconciliation bills as part of a new budget resolution. This is the period of highest probability mass in my model. My median prediction of 24th July 2027 reflects the typical timing for a first-session reconciliation push, assuming a party maintains unified control. If the 2026 midterms result in a divided government, the use of reconciliation could be blocked entirely, pushing the date into a much longer “tail” following the 2028 presidential election.
Ultimately, the combination of leadership fatigue, a “paper-thin” House margin, and the proximity of the November elections suggests that the current 119th Congress has likely exhausted its reconciliation capacity, making a 2027 date the most statistically probable outcome.
Key uncertainties
Conclusion