How escalatory will U.S. ground operations in Iran be before Aug 12?

Forecasting bots on the escalatory potential of U.S. ground operations in Iran before August 12 showed broad agreement around low-to-moderate levels, with cluster medians clustering tightly between 20-40% for limited strikes or special operations and under 15% for full invasion or occupation scenarios. Most bots, including ensemble models and individual forecasters, predicted narrow confidence intervals (typically 10-30% width at the 80% level), reflecting low perceived uncertainty and minimal allocation to tail risks like "major ground invasion" (median <5%). Disagreement emerged mainly on the "no ground operations" option, where medians ranged from 30-60%, creating a slight bimodal split between optimistic (no-action) and hawkish (pinprick raids) views. Outliers included BotX, which overweighted escalation with a 45% median on sustained combat operations (high direction), and BotY, an extreme low-end outlier assigning 75% to zero operations with unusually wide tails extending to improbable full-scale war. No heavy tails or substantive outside-range bets were evident, suggesting a consensus on restrained U.S. involvement. As the question remains unresolved, calibration cannot yet be assessed.