When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

• My median prediction for the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) to hit its maximum value is 23rd July 2026.
• This date aligns with the final weekly report before a major 10% U.S. global tariff deadline on July 24, which has triggered a massive “cargo pull-forward” as shippers rush to beat the deadline.
• Severe supply chain disruptions from the 2026 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure are providing a strong “cost-push” floor for rates, with fuel prices up 50% and insurance rates increasing six-fold.
• Major shipping lines like CMA CGM and ONE implemented significant peak season surcharges on June 1, 2026, which are expected to reach their full impact on the index by mid-to-late July.
• Historical seasonality and executive commentary from firms like Evergreen and Wan Hai support a sustained upward trend through the end of Q2 and into Q3 2026.
• The forecast assumes a weekly Thursday reporting cycle, making July 16, July 23, and July 30 the most critical dates for a potential peak.

Key figures

Historical context

Historically, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has been prone to extreme, infrequent positive spikes rather than steady growth. For example, in June 2025, the index reached a historical all-time high of $3,543 following the announcement of U.S. tariffs. A similar pattern was seen in early 2024, where the index jumped 60.75% in a single week due to Red Sea disruptions.

The index typically exhibits seasonality, with a primary peak in the summer (June-August) as retailers stock up for the winter holiday season, and a secondary peak in January ahead of the Lunar New Year. In 2025, rates surged through early June but declined heavily by mid-July once the initial tariff panic subsided. The 2026 environment is unique because the geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz (beginning February 28, 2026) coincide directly with the lead-up to the traditional peak season and a specific legislative tariff deadline in July, creating a more prolonged period of upward pressure than the brief spike seen in June 2025.

Tailwinds

• Carrier Surcharges: The June 1 implementation of $2,000+ per container surcharges by ONE and others ensures that June/July reports will show higher values than May.
• Port Congestion: Congestion has spread from the Middle East to Singapore and India; port delays act as a capacity “sink,” further tightening the available supply of ships and driving up spot rates.
• Inventory Depletion: Daily necessities inventories were depleted during the first three months of the 2026 conflict, triggering a wave of “restocking” demand in addition to the tariff rush.
• Air-to-Ocean Shift: High jet fuel prices have made air cargo prohibitively expensive, forcing high-value “e-goods” (like data center servers) into the container market.

Headwinds

• Resolution of Conflict: Any sudden de-escalation in the 2026 Iran war or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would immediately collapse the fuel surcharges and risk premiums currently propping up rates.
• Economic Slowdown: OECD and IMF forecasts suggest a global growth slowdown; if consumer demand for “e-goods” and garments falters in Q2, the expected peak season surge may underperform.
• New Vessel Supply: Significant new vessel deliveries in 2026 are increasing total global capacity (34.17 million TEUs as of May 28), which could offset the “scarcity” factor carriers rely on to hike prices.
• Tariff Cancellation: The U.S. Court of International Trade recently ruled some tariffs illegal; if the July 24 tariff is stayed or cancelled, the “cargo rush” would evaporate instantly.

Detailed reasoning

My analysis for the median prediction of 23rd July 2026 is based on a “perfect storm” of supply-side constraints and demand-side urgency.

First, the demand “pull-forward” effect is the primary driver of the timing. Shippers are aggressively moving goods from Asia to the U.S. to ensure they are unloaded before the July 24, 2026, deadline for a 10% universal global tariff. This has created a “cargo rush” that began in May and is expected to reach its zenith in mid-to-late July. As vessels reach 100% capacity, spot rates on the WCI—which measures real-time freight prices—are forced upward by desperate shippers. The 23rd July report is the final nominal release before this specific trade deadline, making it the logical point for maximum price pressure.

Second, shipping lines (carriers) are proactively managing capacity to support these higher rates. Major players like CMA CGM and ONE implemented General Rate Increases (GRI) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) on June 1, 2026. These surcharges, often reaching $2,000 per container, typically take several weeks to fully reflect in the composite index as older bookings clear and new, expensive spot bookings dominate the data.

Third, the supply side is severely restricted by the 2026 Iran war and ongoing Red Sea disruptions. Rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope has removed significant effective capacity from the market by extending voyage times by 10 days and increasing fuel costs by roughly $1 million per trip. With fuel prices jumping 50% since the conflict’s start on February 28, carriers are passing these costs directly to the WCI via emergency fuel surcharges.

Fourth, historical and seasonal patterns reinforce this window. While the WCI saw an all-time high in June 2025, the current cycle is influenced by a later tariff deadline (July) and a more severe energy crisis. Macrobond data shows a strong seasonal index for June (1.44) and July (1.15), suggesting that even without the tariff, prices would be seasonally firm.

Finally, I weighted the risk of a “late-window” peak. Polymarket forecasts show the probability of a Bab el-Mandeb closure rising from 6% in June to 20% by September. This back-loaded risk suggests that if a major geopolitical escalation occurs, the peak could be pushed to the very end of the observation window (August 6). However, the immediate urgency of the tariff deadline makes late July the more statistically probable median outcome for the absolute maximum.

Key uncertainties

• Tariff Deadline Timing: If the July 24 tariff is extended by Congress, the “peak” will likely shift to later in the year.
• Bab el-Mandeb Closure: Polymarket gives a 20% chance of a total closure by September; such an event would cause a massive, late-stage spike that could exceed the July tariff peak.
• Jones Act Waiver: The 90-day waiver is set to expire in late July; its renewal or expiration will impact U.S. domestic fuel costs and logistics pressure.
• Labor Stability: While the ILA contract is secure until 2031, any sympathy strikes or secondary port disruptions in Europe or Asia could create unexpected price volatility.

Conclusion

• The forecast identifies 23rd July 2026 as the most likely peak date, driven by the convergence of the July 24th tariff deadline and traditional peak season demand.
• Decision-makers should monitor the 10% global tariff status closely; any postponement or early legislative confirmation of the tariff could shift the shipping “rush” and the resulting price peak.
• Despite the immediate upward trend, the index remains highly sensitive to geopolitical “shocks” in the Middle East, which could override seasonal patterns and set a new maximum later in the year.

Question: on which weekly Drewry WCI nominal report date between 2026-06-03 and 2026-08-12 will the index reach its in-window maximum? Drewry WCI is published weekly (Thursday nominal dates), so the likely resolving dates are the Thursdays from 2026-06-04 through 2026-08-06. All teams agree the series enters the window already rising (May 4–28 saw four consecutive gains) and that June GRIs/PSSs, carrier surcharges, Freightos daily-rate spikes, blank sailings, and bunker-cost/geo‑risk pressures make further early-June strength likely. Counter-signals—decelerating weekly gains, NRF/Global Port Tracker indicating partly front‑loaded demand, and potential Suez/Red Sea normalization—make a quick mid/late‑June peak plausible. Forecasters commonly place the center of mass in late June to mid‑July (the 2024 disruption/mid‑July analogue) with smaller probability on an early June front‑loaded spike (2025 analogue) or a late‑window peak if capacity discipline persists (2013/2021‑type regimes). The open-ended “>2026-08-12” outcome is treated as a very low-probability operational edge case (missing/unusual nominal dates), since if rates keep rising the last qualifying in‑window report (likely 2026-08-06) should resolve as the maximum. Key near-term diagnostics to watch are the June 4, June 11, and June 18 prints to see whether surcharges stick or gains fade.

Forecast and Reasoning

Forecast: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-18 18:02:09 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-25 19:56:28 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-07-09 20:07:16 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-07-23 20:16:37 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-08-06 07:00:56 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-08-06 17:59:03 UTC

Forecast Reasoning

We are forecasting the nominal report date (assigned 14:00 UTC) whose Drewry WCI Composite value is the highest within 2026-06-03 to 2026-08-12 (inclusive by date), with ties going to the earliest such report date. The WCI is typically published weekly (commonly on Thursdays), giving roughly ~10 candidate report dates in-window (early June through early August).

Across analysts, the key shared evidence is that immediately pre-window (May 28, 2026) the index was rising for several weeks and Drewry commentary expected further upward pressure in the coming weeks, with demand reportedly front-loaded into June ahead of a July 1 bunker/fuel adjustment and carrier surcharges/GRIs. That pattern supports a local maximum occurring in late June to mid-July (if front-loading leads to a crest and then stabilization/decline). However, there remains a meaningful scenario where rates keep rising through July (or are volatile but drift upward), in which case the in-window maximum would likely occur at the last regular in-window report date (around 2026-08-06).

Open-tail (“>2026-08-12T12:00:00Z”) should be low-probability but non-zero: it could occur if no qualifying reports are published in the window, if the relevant nominal-date maximum ends up on a nominal date that timestamps after the platform’s range_max_utc cutoff, or if the publication cadence changes in a way that pushes the earliest maximum-qualifying nominal datetime past the cutoff. I express this as a small 1–5% mass in the open-after bin via p99 placed past the upper bound.

Synthesis choice: compared with the most early-skewed forecast (median late June) and the most late-skewed (median late July with heavy mass on Aug 6), I place the median in mid-July, with substantial probability on late July / Aug 6, reflecting both the front-loading narrative and the plausible continuation of summer strength/volatility.

An amateur forecast is likely to (a) spread probability roughly uniformly across the window or (b) anchor on “the last possible date” without considering why a peak might occur earlier (front-loading ahead of July 1 and Drewry’s near-term commentary), and may also mishandle the open-upper tail by stacking mass at the bound rather than placing it strictly past the bound. My forecast instead (1) conditions on the weekly report cadence and the argmax-within-window structure, (2) balances front-loaded June strength against the realistic possibility of continued increases into late July/early August, and (3) allocates a small but explicit open-tail probability using past-bound percentile placement. Confidence: moderate—shipping rates can be shock-driven, so I keep a wide enough spread rather than over-concentrating on one Thursday.

Forecast rationale (numeric):

— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the core view is that the Drewry World Container Index is already in an upswing and is likely to keep rising before topping out. The main drivers cited are:

• Peak-season demand building through June and July
• Tight capacity from blank sailings and other carrier capacity-management actions
• Historical summer seasonality, which often produces freight-rate peaks in mid-to-late summer
• Weekly Thursday reporting, which means the maximum will likely occur on one of the discrete report dates rather than in-between

Areas of consensus

Most of the reasoning points to the index not peaking immediately and instead continuing higher for several weeks. Several forecasts place the most likely maximum in July, especially early to mid-July, when capacity constraints and seasonal demand are expected to be strongest.

Areas of disagreement

The main split is how long the rally persists:

• One view expects a sooner peak in early-to-mid July, followed by normalization as capacity loosens.
• Another view expects the rally to last longer, pushing the maximum into late July or early August, with the last available report date retaining meaningful probability.

Bottom line

The forecasts collectively suggest a July peak is most likely, with the exact timing depending on how quickly blank sailings and demand pressure ease. The distribution is centered on early-to-mid July, but there is a credible tail into late July / early August if tight market conditions persist.

— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the dominant view is that the Drewry World Container Index is most likely to reach its high point late in the June 3–August 12 window, with the strongest individual emphasis on the August 6 report and a secondary cluster around late July.

Main reasoning patterns

• Strong recent momentum: The index is described as entering the window on a clear upward trend, with some forecasts pointing to a multi-week gain already in place.
• Seasonal support: Models consistently invoke late-summer / peak shipping season effects, including pre-holiday demand and carrier capacity tightness, as reasons the index could keep rising through July and into early August.
• Discrete Thursday reporting schedule: Because the WCI is published weekly on Thursdays, the maximum can only occur on one of the report dates. This leads to probability mass being concentrated on the 10 possible Thursdays in the period, rather than spread continuously.
• Late-window mechanical effect: If the rally continues, the last report before cutoff becomes a natural candidate for the maximum, which is why August 6 receives especially high weight.
• Correction risk / upside interruption: A smaller counterargument appears across forecasts: a short-term pullback could happen if conditions soften, including mentions of lower oil prices or the possibility that brief rate spikes (e.g., GRIs) fade before the period ends.

Consensus

• The forecasts broadly agree on a right-skewed distribution, favoring late July and early August.
• There is strong agreement that early June is less likely, though still possible if the trend reverses quickly.

Main disagreement

• The main difference is not whether the peak is likely late or early, but how late:
  • one view puts the highest probability on August 6,
  • another centers the median around July 23,
  • both still preserve some chance of an earlier spike if the uptrend stalls.

Bottom line

The collective reasoning points to a late-period maximum, driven by recent upward momentum, seasonal shipping strength, and the weekly Thursday cadence, with August 6 the single most favored date and late July to early August the broader most likely zone.

— Iteration 3 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning is that the Drewry World Container Index is on an upward path, but the exact peak date depends on how long that momentum persists before easing.

Shared factors driving the view

• Recent upward trend: All of the rationales emphasize a clear run of weekly increases heading into the period, suggesting the index is more likely to keep rising than to reverse immediately.
• Weekly Thursday publication cadence: Because the WCI is reported every Thursday, the candidate peak dates naturally cluster around Thursday observations rather than arbitrary calendar days.
• Seasonality / peak shipping demand: Several rationales point to peak shipping season in summer, especially July and August, as a reason the index could keep climbing beyond early June.
• Rate-setting dynamics: Expected General Rate Increases (GRIs) and capacity management are treated as important catalysts that can push spot rates higher, often in discrete jumps.

Where the forecasts agree

• The most likely peak is in July, not June.
• There is broad confidence that the maximum will occur somewhere in mid-summer, with the strongest candidates around early-to-mid July.

Where they differ

• Earlier peak view: One rationale centers on around July 9, with nearby Thursdays like July 2 and July 16 also receiving meaningful weight.
• Later peak view: Another leans toward late July or early August, arguing that the current momentum and peak-season effects could keep prices rising longer.
• Slightly earlier tail risk: There is also a smaller possibility that the index peaks very quickly, even as early as the first June report, though this is treated as less likely.

Bottom line

The collective reasoning suggests the WCI’s maximum is most likely to occur in July, with the strongest concentration around early-to-mid July, while allowing for a meaningful chance of a late-July or early-August peak if the current upward pressure persists.

Summary of Rationales

The rationales reflect a strong consensus that the traditional late-summer shipping peak has been pulled forward to early-to-mid summer due to massive “front-loading” by importers. Forecasters agree on several key drivers and market dynamics shaping this timeline:

• The “Early Peak” Phenomenon: Importers are aggressively front-loading cargo to navigate ongoing geopolitical chokepoints (like Red Sea and Cape of Good Hope diversions) and to beat an impending late-July U.S. tariff deadline. Because transit times from Asia require departures weeks in advance, this panic-buying is expected to crest in late June and early July.
• Carrier Surcharges: Ocean carriers are capitalizing on this artificial demand surge by implementing steep General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS). Forecasters point specifically to massive rate hikes scheduled for mid-June and July 1, guaranteeing upward pressure on spot rates heading into July.
• Drewry Publication Mechanics: The Drewry World Container Index is published weekly on Thursdays. The rationales expect the compounding effect of maximum shipping volume and the July 1 carrier surcharges to manifest as a definitive index peak in the early-to-mid July reports. Freight futures markets heavily corroborate this July peak.
• Late Summer Overcapacity: Once the tariff deadlines pass and front-loaded demand evaporates in mid-to-late July, forecasters expect rates to decline. This drop-off will be accelerated by a structural influx of newly built mega-vessels entering the global fleet in 2026, which will create severe overcapacity and suppress the likelihood of a late-July or August rate rally.

SUMMARY

Question: When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-15 15:59:59 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-20 07:59:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-27 07:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-07-04 07:59:59 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-07-16 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-07-25 08:00:00 UTC

Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled

Report 1 Summary

Forecasts

Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-17 23:59:59 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-17 23:59:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-24 23:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-07-02 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-07-16 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-07-23 00:00:00 UTC

Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-10 23:59:59 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-06-24 23:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-07-02 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-07-16 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-07-30 00:00:00 UTC

Forecaster 3: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-06-24 23:59:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-07-01 23:59:59 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-07-09 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-07-16 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-07-23 00:00:00 UTC

Research Summary

The research states that as of May 28, 2026 the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) stood at $2,800/40ft, its highest level since July 2025 and marking a fourth consecutive weekly increase. Key drivers cited are an unusually early peak season with demand frontloaded into June ahead of a July 1, 2026 bunker fuel price adjustment; geopolitical disruptions (Strait of Hormuz tensions and Red Sea crisis) forcing reroutes and longer transit times; carrier capacity management including blank sailings and $2,000 peak season surcharges effective June 1; and route-specific rate strength (examples: Shanghai–Genoa, Shanghai–New York, Shanghai–Rotterdam). Short-term forecasts in the research expect continued rate increases through June, with some models (Trading Economics) projecting higher containerized freight index values by end-Q2, while industry commentary and structural fleet additions imply potential relief later in H2 2026.

For the period June 3–August 12, 2026 the research analyzes three scenarios and concludes the most likely timing for the WCI maximum is in June 2026—specifically mid-to-late June (approximately June 11–25)—based on current upward momentum, demand frontloading ahead of the July 1 fuel adjustment, 2025 precedent of an early-June peak, and recent carrier surcharges and blank sailings. A July maximum is considered possible but less likely because the frontloading incentive ends on July 1 and historical patterns showed declines by late July; an August maximum is judged unlikely given expected overcapacity and depleted late-summer demand. The research notes key uncertainties (geopolitical escalation/resolution, carrier blank-sailing behavior, demand durability, weather/port disruptions, and fuel price volatility) and cites the current WCI level ($2,800) as a quantitative anchor.

Websites / sources used (as cited in the research):

• Drewry: https://www.drewry.co.uk
• Trading Economics (Containerized Freight Index): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/containerized-freight-index
• FreightWaves: https://www.freightwaves.com
• Splash247: https://splash247.com
• TradeWinds: https://www.tradewindsnews.com
• CMA CGM (company site/press): https://www.cmacgm.com
• Maersk (news): https://www.maersk.com/news
• Ocean Network Express (ONE): https://www.one-line.com
• Seko Logistics: https://www.sekologistics.com
• Lloyd’s List: https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com
• Polymarket: https://polymarket.com
• Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com
• Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets

(Specific industry reports, press releases and articles from these outlets were referenced in the research.)

RESEARCH

Report 1 Research

Detailed Research Rundown: Drewry World Container Index Maximum Timing (June 3 - August 12, 2026)

Current Market State (As of June 3, 2026)

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) currently stands at $2,800 per 40-foot container as of May 28, 2026, marking the highest level since July 2025 and representing the fourth consecutive weekly increase [11][12][19][20]. This reflects a dramatic rise from $1,899 in late February 2026 and $2,553 on May 14, 2026 [1][2][3][20].

Key Market Drivers

1. Early Peak Season with Demand Frontloading

The 2026 shipping market is experiencing an unusually early peak season, with demand being deliberately pulled forward into June ahead of the July 1, 2026 bunker fuel price adjustment [7][11][12]. This represents a departure from traditional July-August peak patterns.

2. Geopolitical Disruptions

• Iran-US-Israel tensions at the Strait of Hormuz are forcing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to transit times and $800-$1,500 per container [1][2][3][4][17][20]
• Red Sea crisis continues to reduce effective capacity [1][4][10]

3. Carrier Capacity Management

• Eight blank sailings announced for late May/early June [4][11][12]
• Peak Season Surcharges of $2,000 per container implemented by major carriers (CMA CGM, Maersk, ONE) effective June 1, 2026 [2][3][4][6]
• CMA CGM announced new FAK rates effective June 1: $4,700 for Asia-Europe and $5,500-$5,700 for Asia-Mediterranean [6][11]

4. Route-Specific Dynamics

• Shanghai-Genoa: $4,253 (up 44% year-over-year) [6][7]
• Shanghai-New York: $4,597 (up 6% week-over-week) [4][11]
• Shanghai-Rotterdam: $2,861 (up 37% year-over-year) [6][7]

Forecast Expectations

Short-Term Outlook (June 2026):

• Drewry explicitly forecasts “continued rate increases in the coming weeks” [2][3][20]
• Kelmer Procurement predicts an additional $300-350 per FEU increase starting June 1 [7]
• Trading Economics models forecast the Containerized Freight Index reaching 2,608.31 points by end of Q2 2026 [13]

Medium-Term Outlook (July-August 2026):

• One industry expert (Clint Dvorak, Seko Logistics) anticipates the spike to be “short-term” with carriers outpacing demand by end of 2026 [4]
• Structural overcapacity with 7+ million TEUs of new vessel capacity creating 10%+ surplus on major routes [17]
• July 1 fuel adjustment acts as a natural cutoff for demand frontloading behavior [11][12]

Historical Base Rates and Reference Classes

Peak Season Timing Patterns:

1. Traditional Pattern: Peak shipping rates typically occur during July-August (back-to-school) and September-December (holiday shopping) [15]

2. 2025 Precedent (Most Relevant):

• Early peak occurred in early June 2025 due to tariff-related frontloading [14][16]
• Trans-Pacific rates doubled by June 10, 2025 to $6,645 per FEU [14]
• By July 31, 2025, WCI had declined to $2,499, showing clear post-peak decline [18]
• Rate relief expected by mid-July as demand eased [14]

3. Historical Maximum: The all-time peak was 5,109.60 points in January 2022 during post-pandemic supply chain chaos [13], with Shanghai-Rotterdam reaching over $14,800 in October 2021 [1]. Current levels remain well below these extremes.

Key Temporal Markers for Question Period:

• June 1, 2026: Major carrier surcharges take effect
• June 3, 2026: Question opening date (current date)
• July 1, 2026: Bunker fuel price adjustment - creating incentive to ship BEFORE this date
• August 12, 2026: Question resolution cutoff

Base Rate Analysis: When Does Maximum Occur?

Scenario 1: Maximum in June 2026 (Most Probable)

• Supporting factors:

• Currently rising for 4 consecutive weeks with forecasts for continued increases [11][12][20]

• Demand deliberately frontloaded into June ahead of July 1 fuel adjustment [11][12]

• 2025 precedent showed early June peak followed by July-August decline [14][18]

• New surcharges effective June 1 adding $2,000/container [2][3][6]

• Likely timing: Mid-to-late June (approximately June 11-25 reports)

Scenario 2: Maximum in Early July 2026 (Possible)

• Supporting factors:

• Momentum could carry through July 1 deadline

• Traditional peak season is July-August [15]

• Limiting factors:

• Frontloading incentive disappears after July 1

• 2025 pattern showed decline by late July [18]

Scenario 3: Maximum in Late July/August 2026 (Less Likely)

• Limiting factors:
• Structural overcapacity expected to reassert by H2 2026 [17]
• Demand pulled forward means less cargo available for late summer
• Historical 2025 pattern showed sustained decline through July-August [14][16][18]

Prediction Markets

Note: I found no active prediction markets (Polymarket, Metaculus, Manifold) specifically tracking the Drewry WCI maximum timing for this period. The container shipping market lacks retail prediction market coverage despite being a liquid professional market with weekly published data.

Key Uncertainties and Risks

1. Geopolitical Escalation/Resolution: Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz developments could cause 20-30% rate swings [17]
2. Carrier Capacity Discipline: Extent and timing of blank sailings will directly impact supply-demand balance
3. Demand Durability: Whether June frontloading fully depletes July-August demand
4. Weather/Disruptions: Port congestion, typhoons, or other operational issues during summer months
5. Fuel Price Volatility: Actual July 1 bunker adjustment magnitude could shift shipper behavior

Summary for Forecasting

The most likely outcome is that the Drewry WCI will reach its maximum value in June 2026, likely between June 11-25, based on:

• Current upward momentum with explicit forecasts for continued increases [2][3][20]
• Structural demand frontloading ahead of July 1 fuel adjustment [11][12]
• 2025 historical precedent of early June peak followed by summer decline [14][18]
• Carrier capacity management through blank sailings and surcharges [11][12]

The probability of a July maximum is secondary but non-trivial, while an August maximum appears unlikely given structural overcapacity pressures and the demand frontloading dynamic that will leave less cargo available for late summer shipments.

Quantitative Anchor: Current WCI of $2,800 [11][12] is already 47% above late February levels ($1,899) [20], suggesting the rally is maturing. The 2025 early peak pattern provides the strongest reference class for timing expectations.

FORECASTS

R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning

Conditioning on no annulment and normal weekly Drewry publication.

I accept the critic’s Round 3 correction. My Round 2 update probably over-learned the “July 1 BAF is included in WCI” point and pushed too much mass into July 2/9/16. The key refinement is that Drewry’s methodology cuts both ways: WCI includes BAF/PSS and other applicable surcharges, but it is based on agreed rates with 7-day to 1-month validity, not mere carrier announcements. That means July 1-related fuel charges can be reflected in late-June agreed rates, while announced mid-June hikes can fail to become assessed rates if shippers resist. (drewry.co.uk)

I still think the core peak window is June 25 through July 9. Drewry’s May 28 report had WCI up for a fourth week to $2,800/FEU, with rate increases on Asia–Europe and transpacific routes, upcoming FAK/PSS increases, blank sailings, demand pulled forward into June ahead of the July 1 bunker adjustment, and Drewry’s expectation of further upward pressure in coming weeks. (drewry.co.uk) Freightos’ June 2 update supports a delayed/extended peak risk because ex-Asia daily rates were only starting to spike and Asia–Europe had already surpassed last year’s peak-season highs while transpacific still had catch-up room. (freightos.com)

But I agree the early-failure/late-June-peak case deserves more weight than I gave it. S&P described a split North America market, with tight capacity and blank sailings but also doubts that demand was strong enough to justify broad GRIs; that increases the chance that announced increases only partly stick and that the WCI rolls over after a late-June high. (spglobal.com) The tie/plateau rule also slightly favors earlier dates if the index reaches a high level and then flattens.

I am therefore moving some probability from July 2/9/16 back to June 18/25, while keeping the median at July 2 and preserving a meaningful late-July tail. My approximate mass is now: Jun 4 ~1.5%, Jun 11 ~4%, Jun 18 ~16%, Jun 25 ~19%, Jul 2 ~20%, Jul 9 ~15.5%, Jul 16 ~11%, Jul 23 ~7%, Jul 30 ~4%, Aug 6 ~2%.

Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 5: 2026-06-11
Percentile 10: 2026-06-18
Percentile 20: 2026-06-18
Percentile 30: 2026-06-25
Percentile 40: 2026-06-25
Percentile 50: 2026-07-02
Percentile 60: 2026-07-02
Percentile 70: 2026-07-09
Percentile 80: 2026-07-16
Percentile 90: 2026-07-23
Percentile 95: 2026-07-30
Percentile 99: 2026-08-06
Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-06

R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning

Conditioning on the question not being annulled, I think the critic’s main point is valid: my prior was too crisp around a late-June peak. Drewry’s WCI is not a list-price index; it uses agreed rates on which cargo is or is expected to move, with 7-day-to-1-month validity, and it includes bunker factors and other surcharges such as PSS and congestion/risk-related surcharges. That creates a plausible measurement lag into early July rather than a clean “June demand peak = June WCI peak” mapping. (drewry.co.uk)

I still think the modal region remains June 18–July 2. Drewry’s May 28 report has the composite at $2,800, up for a fourth straight week, with Drewry explicitly citing early peak-season demand, Asia–Europe and Transpacific increases, June 1 FAK/PSS attempts, blank sailings, and demand pulled forward into June ahead of the July 1 bunker fuel adjustment. Drewry also says it expects further upward pressure in coming weeks—not necessarily all summer. (drewry.co.uk)

The strongest adjustment is to give July 2 / July 9 / July 16 more mass. Freightos’ June 2 update says June 1 GRIs/PSS had daily rates spiking by roughly $1,000–$1,800/FEU on key ex-Asia trades, with further mid-month increases announced; this supports additional June gains, but the WCI’s agreed-rate methodology can let those increases show up with a lag. (freightos.com)

I also accept the critic’s correction on the geopolitical mechanism: I should not model Strait of Hormuz tension as directly forcing Cape rerouting in the way a Red Sea/Suez disruption does. I now treat that risk mainly as fuel-cost/surcharge pressure and congestion sentiment. That keeps a right tail, but not enough to make August likely. The 2025 frontloading analogy still argues that these spikes can be brief: by late July 2025, Freightos described Transpacific peak season as early/brief, with mid-July GRIs failing as demand eased, though Asia–Europe behaved less uniformly. (freightos.com)

So I’m moving the median one week later to 2026-07-02, pushing the 80th percentile to 2026-07-16, and giving a fatter late-July/August tail than before. I still keep most probability before mid-July because frontloading, overcapacity, and the tie rule all work against a late-window maximum.

Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 5: 2026-06-11
Percentile 10: 2026-06-11
Percentile 20: 2026-06-18
Percentile 30: 2026-06-25
Percentile 40: 2026-06-25
Percentile 50: 2026-07-02
Percentile 60: 2026-07-02
Percentile 70: 2026-07-09
Percentile 80: 2026-07-16
Percentile 90: 2026-07-30
Percentile 95: 2026-08-06
Percentile 99: 2026-08-06
Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-06

R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning

Conditioning on not annulled, I accept most of the critic’s second-round adjustment. My median stays 2026-07-02, but I am moving additional probability from late June / early July into July 16–July 30.

The strongest criticism is the index-mechanics point. WCI is not a pure demand-volume measure; Drewry’s methodology includes agreed all-in ocean freight with bunker adjustment factors and applicable surcharges, including PSS, and uses rates with 7-day to 1-month validity. That means a July 1 bunker/fuel reset can plausibly support a July 2 / July 9 / July 16 index high even if physical frontloading peaks in June. At the same time, the methodology excludes mere quotes/offers, so announced GRIs/FAKs should not be over-counted unless they stick in actual agreed rates. (drewry.co.uk)

I also accept the composite-index critique. Drewry says the WCI is a volume-weighted composite of eight East-West routes, not just a transpacific gauge. Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean can therefore carry the composite later even if transpacific frontloading fades. Freightos’ May 19 update is relevant: Asia–Europe rates in both 2024 and 2025 picked up before peaking around mid-July, and some 2026 daily rates were already firming before June. (drewry.co.uk) (freightos.com)

The near-term upward case is still strong. Drewry’s 2026-05-28 report had WCI up for the fourth straight week to $2,800/40ft, with Drewry citing Asia–Europe and transpacific increases, early peak-season demand, June frontloading ahead of the expected July 1 bunker adjustment, FAK/PSS increases, blank sailings, and “further upwards pressure” in coming weeks. Freightos’ June 2 update adds that daily rates were spiking after June 1 GRIs/PSSs, with additional mid-month increases announced. That makes June 4 / June 11 a less likely ultimate maximum than I had originally allowed, unless the rate push immediately fails. (drewry.co.uk) (freightos.com)

But I still resist pushing the center deep into late July. The frontloading incentive is real; Drewry explicitly says demand is being pulled forward into June before the July 1 bunker adjustment. There is also a weaker medium-term fundamental backdrop: Drewry’s 2026 financial-health outlook says spot rates are forecast to decline further as overcapacity worsens, and S&P’s mid-May reporting described a split North America market with fuel and capacity management doing much of the work while demand was not uniformly strong enough to justify broad GRIs. (drewry.co.uk) (drewry.co.uk) (spglobal.com)

My updated mental distribution is roughly: low single digits for June 4, modest chance June 11/18, substantial mass June 25–July 9, then a fatter-but-still-secondary right tail through July 16/23/30 and a small disruption-driven chance of August 6. I now put the probability of the maximum being by July 9 around the mid-70s rather than ~80%, and the probability of July 16 or later around 20–25%.

Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 5: 2026-06-11
Percentile 10: 2026-06-18
Percentile 20: 2026-06-25
Percentile 30: 2026-06-25
Percentile 40: 2026-07-02
Percentile 50: 2026-07-02
Percentile 60: 2026-07-09
Percentile 70: 2026-07-09
Percentile 80: 2026-07-16
Percentile 90: 2026-07-23
Percentile 95: 2026-07-30
Percentile 99: 2026-08-06
Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-06

Forecast — Post 410

Modal: Jun 29, 2026 to Jul 08, 2026 (23.0%) • partial_shift • 8m31s

Interpretation

Reading: strict

The resolution criteria are highly specific: they define exactly which source to use, precisely how nominal dates are assigned timestamps (14:00 UTC), a hard cutoff at 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z for in-window resolution, tie-breaking rules, and conditions for annulment. This leaves very little room for charitable interpretation — the resolver must follow the literal criteria closely, including the edge case where a nominal date of August 12 at 14:00 UTC falls after the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

Time bounds

• observation_window: Weekly Drewry WCI Composite Index reports with nominal dates from 2026-06-03 to 2026-08-12, inclusive; values assessed as of 23:59 UTC on 2026-08-12
• resolution_date: 2026-08-12

Edge cases identified

1. The cutoff for resolving within the window is 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z, but the Drewry WCI is weekly — if the last report in the window has a nominal date of 2026-08-12 with a 14:00 UTC timestamp, that exceeds the 12:00 UTC cutoff, so it would resolve as ‘>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00’ even if it is technically within the nominal date range.
2. The Drewry WCI is published weekly (typically on Thursdays); the exact nominal dates that fall within the June 3 – August 12 window need to be enumerated to identify which Thursday reports qualify.
3. If the index value is revised retroactively before 23:59 UTC on 2026-08-12, the revised value is what counts; revisions after that time are ignored.
4. If the primary Drewry URL changes, alternative official Drewry pages or press releases may be used — the resolver’s judgment call on what constitutes an ‘official alternative’ could affect resolution.
5. Ties on the maximum value resolve to the earliest date — in a scenario where two non-adjacent weeks share the same peak value, the first occurrence wins.
6. The question uses ‘nominal date’ not publication date; if Drewry publishes a report late (e.g., a Thursday report goes live on Friday), the nominal date (Thursday) is what counts, not the actual publication date.

Research (3/3 variants, shared evidence pool)

Total evidence registered (shared pool): ?

Research Brief

Evidence confidence: medium

Scenario 1: Early June peak (June 4–June 18, 2026) [medium evidence]

Conditions favoring

The Hormuz closure has already pulled peak-season conditions into May–June 2026; Drewry’s own May 28 commentary cited ‘early peak-season trends’; forward indicators as of June 1 pointed to Asia–Europe rates potentially reaching $6,000–$7,000/40ft in the second half of June; the 2025 pattern saw a June peak. Front-loading ahead of July 1 BAF surcharges could accelerate the timing. If rates spike rapidly in early June and then plateau or decline, the maximum would fall in weeks 1–3.

Conditions against

The GJOpen market as of June 25 implied low probability of rates exceeding $3,600, suggesting limited additional upside beyond the ~$2,800 baseline; transpacific peak season was still described as ‘starting’ rather than ‘peaked’ by early June; a Weibull hazard model places median peak around week 5 (July 2); the traditional transpacific peak build-up runs July–August.

Scenario 2: Late June to early July peak (June 25–July 9, 2026) [high evidence]

Conditions favoring

Survival model median falls around week 5 (July 2); the combination of early peak-season pressure building from a $2,800 base plus continued Hormuz-driven surcharges could push the index to a maximum in late June or early July; this aligns with the computed P(peak by week 5) ≈ 52%; the front-loading dynamic (July 1 BAF trigger) could produce a final surge into late June followed by stabilization.

Conditions against

GJOpen pricing suggests limited probability of rates above $3,600 as of late June; if front-loading already occurred by late May, rates could plateau or reverse before late June; 2025 pattern showed rapid post-June decline, but the Hormuz structural factor makes 2026 qualitatively different.

Scenario 3: Mid-to-late July peak (July 16–July 30, 2026) [medium evidence]

Conditions favoring

The traditional transpacific peak season runs July–August; in 2024, the WCI peak occurred on approximately July 25 at $5,937; the ongoing Hormuz closure could sustain elevated rates through summer rather than producing a sharp early peak-and-decline; carriers have been disciplined in capacity management; P(peak by week 8 / August 6) ≈ 87% leaves meaningful probability mass in weeks 6–8.

Conditions against

The Hormuz pull-forward narrative argues against late-July being the peak; front-loading demand that pulled peak earlier in 2025 is also present in 2026; the survival model hazard peaks earlier (week 5 median); rates may have already partially priced in peak conditions at the $2,800 baseline.

Scenario 4: Post-window or unresolvable (resolves as >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z) [low evidence]

Conditions favoring

If the August 6 report has the highest value (possible if demand sustains through August), the 14:00 UTC timestamp is still before 12:00 UTC cutoff — wait, August 6 at 14:00 UTC is after the 12:00 UTC cutoff, so August 6 would resolve as ‘>2026-08-12T12:00:00Z’; OR if rates continue rising beyond the window; OR if no qualifying reports are published (effectively zero probability given ongoing WCI publication).

Conditions against

Drewry WCI is consistently published weekly on Thursdays and shows no sign of discontinuation; the survival model puts P(peak by August 6) at ~87%, so there is strong evidence the peak occurs within the qualifying window; historical peaks in summer windows have all occurred within the June–August period.

Key uncertainties

• Whether the Strait of Hormuz closure will persist, intensify, or be resolved during June–August 2026, as this is the dominant rate driver distinguishing 2026 from prior years
• Whether front-loading demand (anticipating July 1 BAF surcharges and extended transit times) has already peaked or will continue building into July
• Whether carrier capacity management and GRI discipline will sustain rate increases or whether demand softening (tariff uncertainty, consumer slowdown) caps the peak
• The exact magnitude and timing of the June–July rate spike suggested by forward market indicators ($6,000–$7,000 Asia–Europe) — whether this materializes or whether GJOpen’s more conservative ~$2,800–$3,600 range prevails
• Whether the 2025 pattern (June peak, rapid summer decline) repeats or whether the structural Hormuz factor produces a more sustained summer peak as in 2024

Forecast variants (3/3)

Variant 0: inside_view (inside_view_v1)

Inside View Causal Analysis

Key causal chain:

1. Current state (June 3, 2026): Drewry WCI at $2,800/40ft (highest since July 2025), rising 3% week-on-week. Strait of Hormuz closed since early March 2026, adding ~$735/40ft “Hormuz premium” on transpacific routes. Carriers and analysts describe “early peak-season trends.”

2. Near-term mechanism (June 4–June 25): Forward indicators as of June 1 pointed to Asia–Europe rates potentially reaching $6,000–$7,000/40ft in the second half of June, driven by front-loading ahead of July 1 BAF surcharges. However, GJOpen market as of late June implied only 3.8% probability of WCI above $3,600 on June 25 — suggesting the aggressive forward estimates may have been partially offset by demand constraints.

3. Survival model (strong quantitative evidence, per brief): Weibull model (shape=1.5, hazard 0.143/week) places the median peak at ~week 5 ≈ July 2, 2026. P(peak by week 5) ≈ 52%; P(peak by week 8, August 6) ≈ 87%. This is the dominant quantitative signal.

4. Scenario weights by evidence strength:

   • “Late June to early July peak” (June 25–July 9): Tagged high evidence strength — aligns with survival model median, front-loading into July 1 BAF surcharge, and ongoing rate-building trajectory.
   • “Early June peak” (June 4–June 18): Tagged medium — supported by Hormuz pull-forward and 2025 June-peak analog, but GJOpen data suggests rates were still moderate as of late June (not yet peaked by that point).
   • “Mid-to-late July peak” (July 16–July 30): Tagged medium — traditional peak season, 2024 analog (late July peak at $5,937), sustained Hormuz closure.
   • “Post-window” (resolves >Aug 12): Tagged low — only ~13% tail from survival model, strong history of peaks within window.

Bin mapping:

• Jun 3–12 (bin_0): includes June 4 report, early-June peak scenario, Hormuz pull-forward — ~10% (June 4 and June 11 reports; front-loading surge possible but GJOpen suggests rates still building, not peaked)
• Jun 12–21 (bin_1): includes June 18 report — ~8%
• Jun 21–29 (bin_2): includes June 25 report — ~10% (GJOpen context at $2,800–$3,600 range suggests not yet peaked; but this is the late-June spike window)
• Jun 29–Jul 8 (bin_3): includes July 2 report — survival model median here, high-evidence scenario — ~22%
• Jul 8–17 (bin_4): includes July 9 and July 16 reports — ~15%
• Jul 17–26 (bin_5): includes July 23 report — ~12%
• Jul 26–Aug 3 (bin_6): includes July 30 report — ~8%
• Aug 3–12 (bin_7): includes August 6 report — ~6%
• bins 8–12 (post-window, out-of-window): The survival model gives ~13% for post-August 6, plus minor annulment risk. These correspond to the “>2026-08-12T12:00:00Z” resolution outcome. Spread ~9% total across bins 8–12.

Variant 1: outside_view (outside_view_v1)

Reference class: weekly Drewry WCI peaks during the June–August window (recent years and the computed time-to-peak projection). Base rate: the brief’s survival/hazard projection (Weibull, shape=1.5) places the median peak in week 5 of the qualifying window (≈July 2, 2026) and P(peak by Aug 6) ≈ 87% (source 20). Adjustment: I tilt only modestly toward that median because the brief explicitly treats that computed projection as strong quantitative evidence (source 20, tagged high) and because Drewry’s May 28 commentary described “early peak‑season trends” (source 6) and the Hormuz disruption has plausibly pulled some mass earlier (sources 17,25,31). I partially offset the pull‑forward by market signals that limited extreme upside (Good Judgment Open implied low probability of WCI > $3,600 for late June; source 7) and the historical variability (2024 late‑July peak vs 2025 early‑June peak; sources 5,8,21). Final: concentrate most mass in the late‑June → early‑July bins (bin_2–bin_4), with the single largest bin at Jun 29–Jul 08 ≈ Drewry nominal date July 2 (bin_3) to reflect the survival‑model median and the brief’s high‑strength late‑June/early‑July scenario (source 20). Specifics and interpretation constraints used: only Drewry nominal weekly reports count; the brief enumerates 10 qualifying Thursday nominal dates (June 4 → Aug 6) because the Aug 12 nominal report at 14:00 UTC would fall after the question’s 12:00 UTC cutoff and therefore is excluded for an in‑window resolution (source 14) — I reflected that strict reading in placing primary mass only in bins covering June 4–Aug 6. Because evidence quality is medium (brief’s stated confidence_in_evidence = medium), I leave a nontrivial tail (13%) beyond the qualifying window (bins_8–_12) to reflect the ~13% survival tail beyond Aug 6 from the brief and the possibility of later peaks or publication/verification edge cases (source 20). Weighting note: the brief labeled the Late‑June→Early‑July scenario as high relative_evidence_strength (source 20); I therefore allocate materially more mass there than to the lower‑evidence early‑June or mid‑July scenarios (sources 6,17,5). Overall confidence: medium (per brief); the distribution is wider than a single‑bin spike to reflect the brief’s key uncertainties (Hormuz persistence, front‑loading, carrier discipline — sources 17,25,26,30) and the modest historical sample of comparable years (sources 5,8,21).

Variant 2: contrarian_v2 (contrarian_v2)

Adversarial reading

The bulk of the brief’s evidence (high-evidence scenario tagged for June 25–July 9, survival median at July 2, Drewry’s own early-peak commentary) pulls toward bins 2–3, with the Hormuz-driven pull-forward cited as the dominant structural factor.

Counter-evidence found (or absence)

The GJOpen market pricing (only 3.8 % probability above $3,600 on June 25) and the 2025 pattern of a sharp early-June peak followed by rapid decline both contradict the assumption that the Hormuz premium will sustain a mid-window maximum; the brief itself tags this scenario as only medium-evidence.

Distribution implications

Extra mass is shifted into early June (bin_1) relative to a naive median-centered distribution, because the counter-evidence on rate trajectory timing is substantive and directly challenges the high-evidence late-June/early-July scenario; tail mass on bin_7+ is kept minimal given the low-evidence tag on the post-window scenario.

Consolidate

Strategy: logit_mean • Drafts: 3/3

Reviewers (3/3)

anchoring → shift_lower (medium magnitude, medium confidence) anchoring_v1

The draft’s modal bin is Jun 29–Jul 08, ~26.4% (bin_3), anchored on a Weibull survival model placing the median peak at “approximately week 5 ≈ July 2, 2026.” However, the model uses the survival median (the week by which ~50% of probability mass has accumulated) as a proxy for the modal week, which is an optimistic anchor: the median of a right-skewed Weibull with shape=1.5 sits earlier than the mean, and the mode (hazard-weighted peak likelihood) should sit around the survival model median only if the distribution is symmetric. More importantly, the brief simultaneously notes two strong pull-forward factors — Drewry’s own “early peak-season trends” commentary as of May 28 and the July 1 BAF surcharge front-loading trigger — but the forecaster places only 10–11% in the two earliest bins (Jun 3–21) despite these being the bins directly implied by the “second half of June” forward-rate spike language and the 2025 June-peak analog. The phrase “Asia–Europe rates could climb to $6,000–$7,000/40ft in the second half of June” (source 30) was the most specific near-term timing signal in the brief, yet the forecaster placed the p50 at July 2 rather than at the front of the “second half of June” window (≈June 18–25, bin_1–bin_2). The contrarian variant correctly shifted mass earlier but was averaged away. The result is a forecast whose modal bin (bin_3, Jul 2) sits later than the most specific near-term timing signal, a classic forward-window anchoring error.

Flagged concerns

• Median-as-mode substitution: The Weibull survival model provides a median-peak week (~week 5, July 2), but the draft treats this as the modal expectation and places 26% mass in bin_3. The survival median of a rising-hazard Weibull is not the same as the mode of the weekly peak distribution; the peak likelihood per week rises then falls, so the modal week may be earlier than the median.
• Underweighting the most specific near-term signal: The brief’s most time-specific forward signal is that Asia–Europe rates ‘could climb to $6,000–$7,000/40ft in the second half of June’ (source 30), directly pointing to bins 1–2 (Jun 12–29). Yet bins 0–2 combined receive only ~30% mass, less than the 26% allocated to bin_3 alone. The July 2 modal anchor deprioritizes the only near-term directional statement in the brief.
• Averaging away valid contrarian shift: The contrarian variant explicitly shifted mass into early June (bin_1) based on the GJOpen data and 2025 analog, but logit-mean averaging diluted this signal, with the final distribution still centered on bin_3. The rationale for the contrarian view was coherent and should not have been averaged to near-zero effect.

ceiling → shift_higher (low magnitude, medium confidence) ceiling_v1

A critical structural ceiling applies here: the resolution criteria state that any report with a nominal date of 14:00 UTC must resolve on or before 2026-08-12T12:00:00Z to count as in-window. The brief correctly identifies (source 14) that the August 12 nominal date at 14:00 UTC exceeds this cutoff, meaning the effective qualifying window closes with the August 6 report. However, the brief then introduces a scenario narrative error: it describes August 6 as resolving in-window (correctly — Aug 6 at 14:00 UTC is before Aug 12 at 12:00 UTC), but then the “post-window” scenario notes that only ~13% tail lies beyond August 6. The draft distributes bins 8–12 only ~3.9% total (0.017+0.008+0.005+0.004+0.004 ≈ 3.8%), far below the survival model’s stated ~13% tail. This means ~9% of mass that structurally belongs in the “>Aug 12” resolution outcome (bin_8 and beyond) has instead been absorbed into in-window bins, violating the stated structural constraint from the survival model. The constraint is explicit: “P(peak by week 8, i.e., by August 6) ≈ 87%” leaves ~13% beyond week 8, which should map to bins 8–12.

Flagged concerns

• Post-window tail under-weighted relative to survival model constraint: The survival model (source 20) explicitly states P(peak by August 6) ≈ 87%, implying ~13% probability mass should sit in the ‘>2026-08-12T12:00:00Z’ resolution outcome (bins 8–12). The draft allocates only ~3.8% to bins 8–12 combined, leaving ~9% of structurally implied post-window mass absorbed into in-window bins. The brief itself acknowledges this: ‘P(peak by week 8) ≈ 87%, leaving ~13% tail beyond August 6.’
• Bin_7 (Aug 3–12) underestimates effective qualifying content: Bin_7 covers August 3–12 but only the August 6 nominal date qualifies (Aug 12 at 14:00 UTC exceeds the 12:00 UTC cutoff per source 14). The draft allocates 3.1% to bin_7, which appears reasonable, but the structural boundary on what constitutes a qualifying August report should be clearly flagged — any peak appearing on August 6 resolves in-window, but the bin label suggests coverage through August 12 which could mislead.
• Missing constraint: GJOpen late-June market price caps ceiling on early-window peak levels: GJOpen implied only 3.8% probability of WCI > $3,600 on June 25 (source 7). If the June 25 report is near the market-consensus maximum (~$3,200–$3,600), then the probability of the June 25 report being THE maximum is bounded by how likely a later report exceeds it. This constrains probability mass in bins 0–2 relative to the 30%+ currently assigned there, as the structural ceiling on early-window values means later weeks can more easily exceed those early readings.

math → shift_higher (low magnitude, medium confidence) math_v1

The forecast assigns 26.4% to Jun 29–Jul 08, the survival model median (bin_3), which correctly anchors to the high-evidence scenario. However, the distribution mass across bins 0–7 sums to ~87.0%, while the survival model explicitly places P(peak by Aug 6) ≈ 87%. This is internally consistent. The tail bins 8–12 sum to ~3.0%, which is lower than the stated ~13% survival tail beyond Aug 6 and appears to underweight the annulment/out-of-window risk documented in the brief.

Flagged concerns

• probability_sum: Bins 0–7 (in-window dates) sum to 0.8699; bins 8–12 (post-window) sum to 0.0301. Brief states survival model P(peak by Aug 6) ≈ 87%, leaving ~13% tail. Published distribution has only ~3% in tail bins, underweighting the post-window/unresolvable scenario by ~10 percentage points.
• scenario_weighting_consistency: Brief tags ‘Late June to early July peak (June 25–July 9)’ as HIGH evidence strength, yet the draft assigns ~47% to bins 2–4 (Jun 21–Jul 17), which is wider than bin_3 alone. Within this band, bin_3 gets 26.4%, bin_2 gets 19.1%, and bin_4 gets 12.9%. The peak concentration (bin_3) correctly reflects the survival median, but the tail-off (19% to later bins) is steeper than typical for a ±1σ Weibull window around the median, suggesting the rationale may not fully reflect the high-evidence scenario’s shape.
• bin_assignment_logic: Bin_3 (Jun 29–Jul 08) nominally covers report dates Jul 2 and Jul 9 (the survival median falls on Jul 2). The modal bin correctly places the 26.4% mass here. However, Jun 21–29 (bin_2) covers Jun 25 report and Jul 8–17 (bin_4) covers Jul 9 and Jul 16 reports. The front-loading/rate-building narrative in the brief supports a gradual rise into early July, yet the distribution mass at earlier bins (0–1 total ~22%) is notably higher than the brief’s medium-evidence early-June scenario (~10%) suggests.

Reconcile: partial_shift

Reviews consumed: 3

The anchoring reviewer flagged that the median-as-mode substitution underweighted the early-window pull-forward signal (Hormuz, “second half of June” Asia-Europe surge, July 1 BAF front-loading) — I partially accepted by shifting some mass from bin_3 into Jun 21–29, which captures the June 25 report at the front of the “second half of June” window (bin_2) and slightly into bin_1. The ceiling reviewer and math reviewer both flagged that the tail (bins 8–12) was underweighted relative to the survival model’s stated ~13% P(peak after Aug 6); I accepted this and raised bin_8–12 from ~3.8% to ~10%, keeping it slightly below 13% because the GJOpen market-implied ceiling and absence of monotone-floor constraint suggest in-window peaks are still favored. I kept Jun 29–Jul 8 (bin_3) as the modal bin because the survival-model median (July 2) plus the high-evidence “late June to early July” scenario remain the dominant quantitative signal — I did not fully pivot to the contrarian early-June view. Net effect: partial shift — bin_3 reduced from 26.4% to 23%, bin_2 raised from 19% to 18% (small change), tail raised meaningfully, contrarian early-window tilt partly integrated.

Rejected critiques

• [anchoring] Shift modal bin earlier to bin_1 or bin_2 to reflect ‘second half of June’ forward signal and 2025 June-peak analog

  • Why rejected: Partially accepted (raised bin_1 and bin_2) but did not fully pivot away from bin_3 as the modal bin. The survival model median (July 2) is tagged high-evidence and the front-loading narrative supports rates continuing to build into early July before the July 1 BAF takes effect — the peak is more likely just before or after the surcharge trigger than in mid-June. GJOpen pricing implying low probability >$3,600 by June 25 actually argues against an early-June peak being THE maximum.

• [math] Bin_0–1 mass (~22%) is higher than the medium-evidence early-June scenario warrants

  • Why rejected: Kept bins 0–1 at ~20% combined because the anchoring reviewer’s countervailing concern (forward-rate spike in second half of June, Hormuz pull-forward) supports meaningful early-window mass; the two reviewer concerns partially cancel and the consolidated allocation reflects the tension.

Final Distribution (date ranges)

Evidence Sources (32)

1. Drewry WCI - May 28 2026 — The Drewry WCI is published weekly on Thursdays; the most recent report (as of June 3, 2026) was for Thursday May 28, 2026, at $2,800 per 40ft container (up 3%).
2. Pentagon Freight Q2 2024 Market Report — In June 2024, the Drewry WCI was around $5,117 per 40ft container (up 233% year-over-year), representing a significant peak in 2024.
3. The Grower - Drewry WCI July 2024 — In 2024, the Drewry WCI reached approximately $5,901 per 40ft container in the second week of July 2024 — this appears to be near the 2024 peak for the summer window (June-August).
4. AJOT - Drewry WCI July 27, 2023 — The Drewry WCI all-time pandemic peak was $10,377 reached in September 2021. In summer 2023, the index was at very low levels (~$1,575 per 40ft container in late July 2023).
5. LightNOW - Ocean Freight Rates July 2024 — In late July 2024, the Drewry WCI was at $5,937 per 40ft container — suggesting the 2024 summer peak was around late July 2024, with the index at the highest point in the June-August window.
6. Drewry WCI - May 28, 2026 — As of May 28, 2026, Drewry officially stated: ‘With early peak-season trends emerging and seasonal demand strengthening through June, Drewry expects further upwards pressure on rates in the coming weeks.’
7. GJOpen - Drewry WCI June 25, 2026 — A Good Judgment Open question about the Drewry WCI on June 25, 2026 had market probabilities suggesting lower probability of the index being above $3,600 (only 3.8% probability for the $3,600–$4,000 range), indicating market expectations of moderate rate levels in late June 2026.
8. Trading Economics - World Container Index historical data — According to Trading Economics, the Drewry World Container Index reached an all-time (recorded) high of $3,543 in June 2025 — making June 2025 the historical peak in recent years for the summer June-August window.
9. ALS International - Drewry WCI 2025 Market Analysis — As of September 18, 2025, the Drewry WCI was at $1,913 per 40ft container — significantly down from the June 2025 peak of ~$3,543, indicating the index fell substantially from mid-year 2025 peak.
10. MTS Insights Twitter/X post — As of May 28, 2026, the Drewry WCI at $2,800 was described as the ‘highest since July 2025,’ suggesting the index had been below $2,800 from roughly August 2025 through May 2026 before the recent rise.
11. AJOT - Drewry WCI July 31, 2025 — In 2025, the Drewry WCI peaked in June 2025 at ~$3,543, then declined to ~$2,499 by July 31, 2025, and continued to fall to ~$1,913 by September 18, 2025 — showing a pattern of a June peak followed by decline through summer.
12. Drewry - World Container Index / Latest Trackers and Indices — Drewry publishes the World Container Index (WCI) weekly; its WCI page lists ‘World Container Index’ weekly assessments and a composite index (source page: Drewry ‘World Container Index - assessed by Drewry’ and ‘Latest Trackers and Indices’).
13. World Container Index: Methodology - Drewry — Drewry’s WCI consists of eight route-specific indices and a composite index and is updated weekly (methodology page indicates weekly updates and composite composition).
14. Analysis of Drewry Thursday publication schedule within June 3 - August 12, 2026 window — The Thursday Drewry WCI publication dates within the June 3 – August 12, 2026 window are: June 4, June 11, June 18, June 25, July 2, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 30, August 6 — that’s 10 qualifying reports. The August 12 date, though within the window, would be published at 14:00 UTC, which exceeds the 12:00 UTC cutoff for resolution, so it would resolve as ‘>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00’. Thus the effective window is June 4 through August 6 (10 reports), not including August 13 (which is also a Thursday).
15. Container News - Drewry WCI coverage — News aggregators (Container News) republish Drewry WCI weekly updates and list specific weekly composite values (e.g., ContainerNews articles reference WCI values and dates during 2026).
16. TradingEconomics - World Container Index - Price - Historical Data — TradingEconomics reports the Drewry World Container Index value as $2,800 on 2026-05-28 and provides historical series data (TradingEconomics ‘World Container Index - Price’ page shows series with dates and values).
17. Freightos Weekly Update May 20, 2026 — As of late May 2026, the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to an Iran war, shifting container shipping routes and adding to freight costs. The Asia-Europe lane has seen an ‘early start to peak season’ with carriers diverting away from the Red Sea, causing importers to order earlier to account for longer transit times.
18. CPC Consultants - Has the Traditional Ocean Peak Season Gone Away? — Traditional peak season for ocean freight (July-October) has historically been driven by back-to-school and holiday retail demand, but in recent years geopolitical disruptions and tariff-driven frontloading have caused earlier ‘mini-peaks.’ In 2025, the peak season was earlier than usual due to tariff changes.
19. Instagram: Drewry WCI timing (Every Thursday 1400 GMT) — Drewry states that its World Container Index is reported every Thursday at 14:00 GMT/UTC, implying a fixed nominal weekly schedule.
20. Survival forecast - WCI peak timing within June-August 2026 window — Survival forecast for when the WCI peak occurs within the 10-week qualifying window (June 4 - August 6, 2026): median peak around week 5 (approximately July 2, 2026), P(peak by week 5) ≈ 52%, P(peak by week 8, August 6) ≈ 87%. P10 peak: week 1-2 (early June), P90 peak: week 10+ (beyond window). This uses a Weibull shape=1.5 (rising hazard as rates build through the season), with hazard rate=0.143/week.
21. Synthesis of AJOT, LightNOW, Trading Economics historical WCI data — Historical reference class for June-August WCI peak timing: 2024 peak was in late July (~July 25, 2024, at $5,937); 2025 peak was in June (~early June 2025, at $3,543); 2023 peak was minimal (market bottomed out in summer at ~$1,575 in July). In years with strong demand/disruptions (2024, 2025), peak within June-August window occurred in weeks 4-6 of the window — corresponding roughly to late June through early July.
22. Drewry - World Container Index - 28 May (page snippet) — A Drewry WCI weekly post snippet reads ‘Our detailed assessment for Thursday, 28 May 2026’ showing Drewry assigns a nominal Thursday date to weekly WCI assessments.
23. Economic Calendar | MTS Insights — The MTS Insights economic calendar lists the next Drewry World Container Index release after May 28, 2026 as Thursday, June 4, 2026, confirming the weekly Thursday publication schedule continues into June 2026.
24. Shanghai’s box freight index surges - ShippingWatch — ShippingWatch reported on May 29, 2026 that “On Thursday, figures from the World Container Index (WCI), compiled by the analysis firm Drewry, showed the same trend,” explicitly confirming the WCI was published on Thursday, May 28, 2026, consistent with the ongoing Thursday schedule.
25. How the ‘Hormuz Premium’ has upended container trade seasonality - The Loadstar — Sea-Intelligence analysis found a “Hormuz premium” of ~$735/40ft above normal seasonal levels on the transpacific (Shanghai–Los Angeles) trade as of mid-May 2026, with rates climbing steeply and sustainedly after the onset of the Hormuz crisis instead of following the customary post-CNY seasonal decline.
26. Container rates starting to spike on peak season rush - June 2, 2026 Update | Freightos — Transpacific container rates climbed ~$1,000/FEU since the Strait of Hormuz war began (early March 2026); by late May 2026 spot rates were ~$3,200/FEU to the US West Coast and ~$5,000/FEU to the US East Coast, approximately 20% higher year-on-year, having risen ~15% through mid-May GRIs before starting to spike further on June 1st GRIs.
27. Container rates starting to spike on peak season rush - June 2, 2026 Update | Freightos — Asia–Europe (N. Europe) spot rates were ~$3,000/FEU and Asia–Mediterranean ~$4,400/FEU as of late May 2026, roughly level since the Hormuz war began, with fuel costs preventing the typical March–April easing and early peak-season GRI attempts ticking rates up again in mid-May 2026.
28. Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026: Full Timeline & Ocean Freight Impact - Seavantage — The Seavantage Hormuz 2026 timeline reports transpacific container rates to the US West Coast up ~40% since pre-war levels, and Asia–North Europe rates up ~20%, with emergency bunker surcharges now active on both corridors.
29. Gulf Conflict Triggers Early Peak Season, Drives Shipping Rates Up | Hylios (sourced from The Loadstar) — As of mid-May 2026 (SCFI data cited by Yang Ming/The Loadstar), Shanghai–North Europe rates had climbed 4% w/w to $2,584/40ft, Mediterranean routes +2% to $3,263/40ft, and US West Coast rates +4% to $2,826/40ft, with carrier Yang Ming confirming the Gulf conflict is accelerating the onset of peak season.
30. Capacity tightens and rates surge as peak season pressure builds | Metro Global — Forward market indicators as of June 1, 2026 suggest Asia–Europe rates could climb as high as $6,000–$7,000/40ft in the coming weeks (second half of June), driven by a demand surge from shippers front-loading cargo ahead of new BAFs taking effect July 1; peak season surcharges are being applied without caps, adding continued upward pressure.
31. Hormuz Is Pulling the Ocean Peak Forward | Metro Global — The Hormuz crisis has structurally shifted peak season timing: instead of the traditional Q3 (July–August) peak build-up, peak-like conditions emerged in May–June 2026 from a fuel-cost-elevated baseline, with the Gulf conflict driving forward-buying behaviour that pulls shipments earlier and compresses peak into a shorter timeframe.
32. Freightos Weekly Update: Early start to peak season for Asia–Europe ocean? via AJOT — Freightos (May 19, 2026) notes that for the June–August 2026 window, peak-season rate movements will start from a fuel-cost-elevated baseline due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, with transpacific rates expected to move higher when peak season fully starts; the Drewry WCI is cited as showing “further upward pressure” as early peak-season trends emerge.

wooley_rhino • run bd6c9bfb • $2.88 • 8m31s

Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1780531200.0, 1.0: 1780531200.0, 5.0: 1781136000.0, 10.0: 1781740800.0, 15.0: 1781740800.0, 20.0: 1781740800.0, 25.0: 1781740800.0, 30.0: 1782345600.0, 35.0: 1782345600.0, 40.0: 1782345600.0, 45.0: 1782345600.0, 46.0: 1782345600.0, 47.0: 1782345600.0, 48.0: 1782345600.0, 49.0: 1782345600.0, 50.0: 1782950400.0, 51.0: 1782950400.0, 52.0: 1782950400.0, 53.0: 1782950400.0, 54.0: 1782950400.0, 55.0: 1782950400.0, 60.0: 1782950400.0, 65.0: 1782950400.0, 70.0: 1783555200.0, 75.0: 1783555200.0, 80.0: 1784160000.0, 85.0: 1784160000.0, 90.0: 1784764800.0, 95.0: 1785369600.0, 99.0: 1785974400.0, 99.9: 1786579200.0}

Model’s Answer: Looking at this question, I need to determine when the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) composite will reach its maximum value during the June 3 - August 12, 2026 window.

Identifying Possible Resolution Dates

The WCI is published weekly, with nominal dates appearing on Thursdays based on the research (May 28, May 21 were Thursdays with WCI reports). The possible resolution dates within the window are:

• June 4, 2026
• June 11, 2026
• June 18, 2026
• June 25, 2026
• July 2, 2026
• July 9, 2026
• July 16, 2026
• July 23, 2026
• July 30, 2026
• August 6, 2026

Reports after August 6 would have nominal dates after August 12, 2026 at 12:00 UTC, resolving as >2026-08-12.

Key Analysis Factors

Current State: The WCI reached $2,800 on May 28, 2026 - the fourth consecutive weekly gain, up from $2,076 on May 8 (a 35% increase in three weeks).

Factors suggesting mid-June to early July peak:

• Drewry explicitly expects further rate rises in coming weeks due to early peak-season demand
• Carrier FAK/PSS surcharges effective June 1
• Capacity tightening through blank sailings on key routes
• Seasonal peak typically occurs June-July

Factors suggesting potential earlier peak:

• Trans-Atlantic rates already at year-high and plateauing
• The rally has already been substantial entering the window
• Overall 2026 outlook involves declining rates due to overcapacity

Factors suggesting later peak (less likely):

• Geopolitical tensions (Red Sea rerouting) could sustain elevated rates
• Port congestion events could create unexpected spikes

Critical Assumptions and Risks

Assumption 1: Peak-season demand follows typical seasonality (probability of failure: ~15%) - If demand is exceptionally strong or weak, timing shifts significantly.

Assumption 2: No major disruption events occur (probability of failure: ~10%) - Major port closures or geopolitical events could cause unexpected late-window spikes.

Assumption 3: Drewry’s near-term forecast of continued increases is accurate (probability of failure: ~20%) - If rates plateau immediately, the maximum could be June 4.

Probability Distribution

Given Drewry’s explicit expectation of continued increases through June, I weight the distribution toward mid-to-late June and early July, with the peak most likely occurring around late June when seasonal demand typically peaks:

• Earlier outcome (June 4-11): ~9% - If the rally is already exhausted or trans-Atlantic weakness dominates
• Peak season peak (June 18 - July 2): ~58% - Most likely scenario given seasonal patterns and Drewry’s forecasts
• Later peak (July 9+): ~32% - If disruptions or sustained demand extend the rally
• After August 12: ~1% - Unlikely but possible with unexpected events

Percentile .1: 2026-06-04 Percentile 1: 2026-06-04 Percentile 5: 2026-06-11 Percentile 10: 2026-06-18 Percentile 15: 2026-06-18 Percentile 20: 2026-06-18 Percentile 25: 2026-06-18 Percentile 30: 2026-06-25 Percentile 35: 2026-06-25 Percentile 40: 2026-06-25 Percentile 45: 2026-06-25 Percentile 46: 2026-06-25 Percentile 47: 2026-06-25 Percentile 48: 2026-06-25 Percentile 49: 2026-06-25 Percentile 50: 2026-07-02 Percentile 51: 2026-07-02 Percentile 52: 2026-07-02 Percentile 53: 2026-07-02 Percentile 54: 2026-07-02 Percentile 55: 2026-07-02 Percentile 60: 2026-07-02 Percentile 65: 2026-07-02 Percentile 70: 2026-07-09 Percentile 75: 2026-07-09 Percentile 80: 2026-07-16 Percentile 85: 2026-07-16 Percentile 90: 2026-07-23 Percentile 95: 2026-07-30 Percentile 99: 2026-08-06 Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-13

Weekly fixed-report cadence and a composite that weights eight trade lanes constrain the outcome to specific Thursday nominal dates.

Chronic overcapacity and seasonal demand set a narrow physical ceiling on how high and how long spot freight can remain elevated.

Carrier GRIs, mid‑month PSS/BAF adjustments, and advance bookings are the immediate upward impulses through early June.

Soft U.S. import momentum and ample charter availability are the primary moderating forces beyond the front‑loading window.

If announced surcharges and front‑loaded bookings persist across billing periods, the maximum will cluster in the late‑June reports; if demand fades, the peak will be earlier and short‑lived.

A sustained route disruption or additional cost pass‑through would shift the maximum into July, while absent such shocks the late‑June (roughly 18 June–2 July) cluster dominates.

Unresolved sensitivities include precise carrier implementation dates, divergence in Asia–Europe versus Transpacific dynamics, and the timing of any geopolitical or port disruptions.

Small changes in route weights or a single large route spike can move the composite peak by one to three weekly reports, so material residual uncertainty remains.

Forecast (Q410): median peak date for the Drewry World Container Index within the window is 2026-07-16.

• The index is already trending up into the period, and Drewry expects further increases, so the maximum is unlikely to occur immediately.
• The biggest swing factor is how quickly the Hormuz disruption eases in practice—an early resolution would pull the peak forward, while a prolonged/uncertain situation pushes it later.
• July 1 is a known demand/price inflection point (BAF adjustment), which can either trigger a late-June peak (if demand is pulled forward) or sustain strength into mid-July (if congestion and tight supply persist).
• Carrier pricing and capacity moves (like blank sailings) can keep rates elevated even if underlying demand softens—supporting a mid-window maximum.
• The “max within a limited window” effect matters: when rates are still rising, the highest published reading tends to land in the latter half of the window, with a non-trivial chance of pushing past August 12 if the disruption continues.