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| Figure/Metric | Value | Source | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Tampa Sulfur Settlement | $655 / long ton | Argus / World Bank | Direct previous quarter benchmark for Tampa liquid sulfur. |
| Marginal Spot Sulfur Cost (May 2026) | $1,200 / ton | Mosaic Q1 Earnings Call | Current peak price for immediate delivery; indicates extreme scarcity. |
| Kuwait May 2026 Sulfur Price (KSP) | $765 / ton FOB | KPC / Argus | Major international benchmark showing 34% monthly increase. |
| World Bank DAP Price (May 2026) | $769.50 / mt | World Bank | Key downstream indicator; uses 0.4 tons of sulfur per ton of DAP. |
| Strait of Hormuz Vessel Transits | 11 per day | S&P Global / PortWatch | Represents a 90%+ collapse from pre-conflict levels (135/day). |
| Mosaic Q1 Realized Sulfur Cost | $379 / ton | Mosaic SEC Filings | Shows the lag between historical contracts and current spot spikes. |
Historically, sulfur prices are highly volatile due to their nature as a byproduct of oil and gas refining rather than a primary mined commodity. In the 2021-2022 period, sulfur prices spiked significantly due to post-pandemic supply chain issues and the energy crisis, with the World Bank Fertilizer Index reaching record highs. However, the 2026 crisis is distinct because it involves a near-total physical blockade of the Persian Gulf, the world’s most significant sulfur-exporting region. Prior to this conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled approximately 14% of global fertilizer shipments. The current surge, where prices doubled in four months, exceeds the rate of increase seen during the 2022 energy shock, though it remains below the $1,200 marginal peaks in real terms when compared to the most extreme historical volatility in specific spot markets.
My prediction is primarily driven by the severe supply-side shock resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which historically handles roughly 45-50% of the world’s seaborne sulfur trade. Since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, vessel traffic through this critical chokepoint has collapsed by over 90%, falling from 135 to approximately 11 vessels per day as of early June. This physical scarcity led to a doubling of sulfur prices between January and May 2026.
The specific “Liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob” price reported by the World Bank typically tracks the quarterly contract settlements in the U.S. Gulf. For Q2 2026, this settlement reached a record $655 per long ton delivered. However, July marks the beginning of the Q3 2026 contract cycle. Given that marginal spot prices reached $1,200 per ton in May and international benchmarks like Kuwait’s KPC FOB price jumped to $765 in May, there is immense upward pressure on the Q3 settlement.
I have weighted the forecast toward the $800–$950 range rather than the $1,200 spot level for several reasons. First, major industrial consumers like Mosaic and OCP have already begun “demand destruction” strategies, such as accelerating maintenance and curtailing production at facilities in Florida, Louisiana, and Brazil to avoid purchasing “unsustainable” incremental tons at $1,200. Second, the U.S. market is partially insulated by domestic refinery production, which provides roughly 80% of Mosaic’s needs. Third, market data from early June suggests that some of the extreme geopolitical risk premium has already begun to fade from other fertilizer segments like urea.
I assigned a 65% weight to a “continued tightness” scenario where the contract reflects higher global floors but is tempered by buyer resistance. A 20% weight is assigned to an “acute squeeze” scenario (>$1,000) if the blockade persists without any humanitarian exemptions or if refinery damage in Qatar and Iran proves more extensive than currently estimated. Finally, a 15% weight is given to a “rapid de-escalation” scenario ($600–$700) where the Strait reopens in July as projected by some analysts, allowing stranded inventories—estimated at 1 million tonnes in the Gulf—to flood the market.
Question: What will the World Bank “liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob” price be for July 2026? The forecasters agree that the July value will be driven by the Q3 Tampa contract/assessment rather than a long-run mean, using the Q2 Tampa settlement (Argus: about $655/long ton delivered ≈ $645/mt before fob adjustments) as the nearest anchor. Stronger upward pressure comes from much higher U.S. Gulf/global spot quotes in May (S&P/Platts ~ $1,060/mt FOB U.S. Gulf; CFR Brazil ~$1,150–1,200/mt) and the Middle East/Strait of Hormuz export disruption that may remove 0.8–1.1 Mt/month of exports, while the principal offset is visible phosphate demand destruction and producer curtailments (Mosaic, Itafos) that can cap or reverse prices. Forecasters converge on most probability mass in a high-but-not-extreme regime (roughly $600–1,100/mt across models), with some placing a narrower $600–950 or $650–950 central band and one model emphasizing $800–1,100 if the disruption persists. Small tails are included for rapid normalization/crash below ~$250/mt and for an extreme persistent-scarcity outcome above ~$1,500/mt. Note technical resolution issues: convert long tons to metric tons (divide by 1.016) and consult the World Bank Pink Sheet monthly XLS (not just the PDF) for the official Tampa fob series.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
We are forecasting the World Bank “Liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob” monthly value for July 2026, from a vantage point of 2026-06-09 (about one month ahead). All four analysts agree the market is in a post-shock high-price regime due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption and related Middle East outages, with July likely reflecting either (a) a new Q3 contract/settlement level or (b) a monthly series that largely tracks those settlements.
Key points from the analyst set:
Synthesis and adjustments:
Result: a median around $810/mt with moderately wide tails, and ~2–4% probability mass above $1500 (since p95 < 1500 < p99).
An amateur forecast would likely (a) anchor on outdated pre-shock sulfur prices (e.g., $100–$300/mt), or (b) naively import an extreme spot price from a different region/grade and set the Tampa FOB World Bank value near that number. This forecast improves by explicitly anchoring on the cited recent Tampa contract/settlement level (the most directly relevant benchmark), then adding scenario-based uncertainty for rapid geopolitical change and for further repricing in Q3. Confidence in improvement is moderate: the main remaining uncertainty is how exactly the World Bank monthly series reflects contract settlements vs. broader market assessments.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the main drivers are:
Areas of consensus
Main differences in emphasis
Overall synthesis The collective reasoning points to a July 2026 World Bank sulfur price that remains elevated because of ongoing geopolitical supply disruption, with the biggest uncertainty coming from whether the market experiences rapid normalization or prolonged export constraints.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the dominant view is that the World Bank’s July 2026 liquid sulfur price will rise sharply from the Q2 Tampa benchmark of roughly $645/mt, likely landing in the high-$800s to low-$900s per metric ton.
Key reasoning patterns:
Overall, there is broad agreement on a material increase from Q2, with disagreement mainly around how much of the current shock will be captured in the July contract settlement.
— Iteration 3 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is that July 2026 liquid sulfur prices should rise sharply from earlier 2026 levels because of a major global supply shock, but the World Bank/Tampa-style benchmark will likely remain below the most extreme Asian spot prices.
The combined reasoning points to a sharp July 2026 increase in liquid sulfur prices, likely into the mid-to-high hundreds per metric ton, driven by supply shock dynamics, but moderated by benchmark-specific discounting and demand limits. The outlook is therefore bullish, volatile, and strongly skewed toward higher prices, with substantial downside only if the disruption resolves quickly.
Pricing Benchmark Mechanics The World Bank’s reported liquid sulfur price for July 2026 will be dictated entirely by the Q3 Tampa quarterly contract settlement. This benchmark is negotiated in late June or early July between major North American sulfur suppliers (primarily oil and gas refineries) and key downstream buyers (phosphate fertilizer producers).
Bullish Forces: Severe Supply Shocks and Export Parity Forecasters universally highlight an unprecedented global supply deficit as the primary upward pressure on prices. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, long-term structural damage to Qatari production facilities, and strict export bans from nations like China and Russia have severely starved the global seaborne market. Consequently, international spot prices and Official Selling Prices (OSPs) have skyrocketed. U.S. refineries enter Q3 negotiations with significant leverage, as they can point to these surging global benchmarks and threaten to export their supply if domestic buyers refuse to pay a premium.
Bearish Forces: Demand Destruction and Inelastic Supply Counteracting the global supply shock is severe domestic “demand destruction.” Fertilizer manufacturers simply cannot absorb record-breaking sulfur costs without destroying their operating margins. In response, major buyers have already begun idling plants, withdrawing production guidance, and refusing to purchase at elevated levels. Because sulfur is an involuntary byproduct of oil refining, suppliers cannot stop producing it and face logistical limits on how much molten sulfur they can store or export. If major domestic fertilizer plants shut down, refineries risk a localized glut, giving buyers immense leverage to demand a steep price correction.
The Q3 Standoff The rationales frame the July 2026 price as the outcome of a brutal tug-of-war. Suppliers want to push the Tampa contract up to match global export parity, while buyers are enforcing a hard affordability ceiling via plant shutdowns. Forecasters broadly expect the standoff to result in either a volatile plateau—rolling over near previous record highs as a tense compromise—or a downward correction, as suppliers are ultimately forced to lower prices to keep their primary domestic consumers operational. However, the historical tendency for sulfur to experience sharp boom-and-bust cycles leaves room for extreme outcomes in either direction.
Question: What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulfur in July 2026? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 3: Probability distribution:
The research reports that liquid sulfur prices have surged in 2026 following closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US–Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, with Tampa benchmark and spot reports moving from roughly $150–180/ton in early 2026 to $655–900/ton in May and some regional spot deliveries near $1,000/ton. Major contributors to the shock include the effective shutdown of ~50% of global seaborne sulfur exports through the Strait, production suspensions in Qatar and Iran, export bans (notably China’s May 1 ban on industrial sulfuric acid exports), and temporary Russian export restrictions. Producers such as Mosaic and OCP cut or reduced output, and Chinese on‑exchange prices hit record highs in June. The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects fertilizer prices up sharply in 2026 with risks tilted to the upside if disruptions persist, but its CMO assumes easing by Q3–Q4 2026; the research notes that physical logistics (mine-clearance, shipping queue, restarts) make rapid price normalization within a month unlikely.
For July 2026 the research synthesizes market data, World Bank guidance, and geopolitical timelines into a probable Tampa f.o.b. range and confidence assessment: a “highly likely” range of $600–850/ton, a wider possible range of $500–950/ton, and a most‑probable point estimate of about $700–750/ton, with >80% confidence prices stay above $500/ton and ~60% confidence they remain in $600–850/ton. Key uncertainties identified are the short time to July (less than one month as of June 9), the fragile ceasefire/negotiation progress for Strait reopening, China’s export policy, and production restarts in Gulf producers; monitoring suggested items include concrete Strait reopening timelines, China export policy signals, producer restart announcements, shipping movements, and the World Bank Pink Sheet updates.
Sources used in the research (as cited): World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (April 2026) and World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet); Tampa Sulphur Settlement (industry benchmark); Shanghai exchange price reports; Mosaic corporate reporting; OCP Group reporting; Financial Times and other news outlets; private commodity trackers. Where available:
(Several specific numbered references in the briefing were internal citations and did not include explicit URLs.)
Liquid sulfur prices have experienced an unprecedented surge in 2026 due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026. Prices have increased from $150-180/ton in late 2025 to $655-900/ton by late May 2026 [1][3][4]. With negotiations ongoing but uncertain as of June 9, 2026, and July 2026 less than one month away, there is insufficient time for significant supply recovery even under optimistic scenarios.
Critical Infrastructure Closures:
Export Restrictions:
Production Cutbacks:
Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022-2023):
Price Response Pattern:
The April 2026 CMO assumes disruptions will ease by Q3-Q4 2026. If the Strait remains closed or disruptions extend beyond September 2026, prices could remain elevated significantly longer [11].
Optimistic Scenario (Low Probability for July Impact):
Realistic/Base Case Scenario:
Pessimistic Scenario:
No specific sulfur commodity prediction markets identified in research.
Related geopolitical markets mentioned:
Futures market signals [15]:
Highly likely range: $600-850/ton
Possible extended range: $500-950/ton
Most probable point estimate: $700-750/ton
For updating forecasts as new information emerges:
Recommendation for Superforecaster: Given the compressed timeline (less than 1 month until July 2026), focus forecast on the $600-850/ton range with central estimate around $700-750/ton. The key insight is that physical supply chain constraints prevent rapid normalization regardless of diplomatic progress. Even optimistic peace scenarios won’t materially impact July 2026 average prices due to the time required for implementation. Monitor June 2026 Pink Sheet (released early July) for most recent official baseline.
Conditioned on not annulled.
The critic’s strongest point is valid: I over-weighted global spot panic relative to the likely resolved Tampa/World Bank benchmark. The relevant series is not Brazil CFR or a marginal global cargo. Green Markets reported the Tampa Q2 sulfur contract still at $655/lt CFR, and Mosaic’s own comments show partial insulation from U.S. Gulf molten sulfur supply. Mosaic said roughly 80% of its U.S. sulfur needs come from U.S. Gulf refineries and that it had sourced these through Q2 without constraints, though it also warned that global demand was competing for U.S. supply and that spot prices implied much worse Q3 margins. (fertilizerpricing.com)
I still think the critic should not pull the forecast down too far. The supply shock is real, and July is too close for physical normalization to matter much. World Bank frames Hormuz exposure at about one-third of global sulfur trade, while S&P/CERA’s seaborne-export framing is closer to half; either way this is a large shock for a traded input with limited short-run substitution. S&P reported late-May all-time highs of $815–820/mt FOB Middle East and $1,200/mt CFR Brazil, plus production curtailments driven by sulfur costs. (thedocs.worldbank.org)
The new insight I’m incorporating is that the July print may be contract-like and lumpy, not a smooth average of marginal spot quotes. The resolved value could plausibly cluster near a rollover/modest-rise zone around $655–750, a “tight but capped” zone around $800–950, or a validation-of-spot zone above $1,000. Demand destruction is also not just a generic bearish factor: Mosaic explicitly described $1,200 sulfur as making much of the cost curve underwater, and producers are curtailing to avoid marginal purchases. (fool.com)
So I am moving my median down from $875 to $825/mt, while keeping a fat upper tail. My modal scenario is now a Q3/Tampa step-up from the $655 area, but not full convergence to Brazil-style panic prices. The upper tail remains meaningful because if Hormuz stays closed, if Gulf facility damage proves worse, or if buyers bid aggressively for security of supply, July can still print well above $1,000.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 255
Percentile 1: 335
Percentile 5: 480
Percentile 10: 565
Percentile 20: 655.4
Percentile 30: 710
Percentile 40: 765
Percentile 50: 825
Percentile 60: 895
Percentile 70: 980
Percentile 80: 1080
Percentile 90: 1235
Percentile 95: 1390
Percentile 99: 1680
Percentile 99.9: 2100
Conditioning on non-annulment.
I accept the critic’s main point: my prior update was still too influenced by global spot-market panic and not enough by the specific resolution series: World Bank Liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob. The most important new anchor is the public Green Markets snippet that second-quarter Tampa molten sulfur remained at $655/long ton CFR; converted mechanically, that is around the mid-$600s per metric ton before any CFR/FOB basis adjustment, and it strongly supports a “sticky Q2/Q3 settlement” scenario rather than a direct pass-through from Brazil/Middle East panic prices. (fertilizerpricing.com)
I also accept the critic’s point that the “about half of global sulfur exports offline” framing needs qualification. S&P reports nearly half of global seaborne sulfur exports disrupted, but the World Bank’s CMO frames the Strait exposure closer to about one-third of global sulfur trade and explicitly warns that estimates differ by source, trade definition, units, and geography. (spglobal.com) That moves my central forecast down.
Where I still disagree with the critic is that I would not make a rollover near $655 the dominant single outcome. The World Bank’s own fertilizer note says sulfur prices had already doubled since January, with Qatar sulfur production suspended and Iran ammonia production halted; S&P also reports late-May sulfur at all-time highs, including Middle East FOB around $815–820/mt and Brazil CFR around $1,200/mt, along with severe supply tightness. (blogs.worldbank.org) Even if Tampa is sticky and demand destruction is real, Q3 settlement participants are negotiating against very high replacement costs.
Demand destruction does now enter my central case, not merely the upside cap. S&P reports phosphate output curtailments and Mosaic limiting incremental sulfur purchases because the sulfur-to-phosphate economics had become uneconomic. (spglobal.com) Combined with the World Bank’s note that the broad fertilizer index eased 4.3% in May, this makes a July print in the $600s quite plausible even if global sulfur narratives remain very bullish. (worldbank.org)
My revised model is a mixture:
So I am moving the median down again, from $755 to $720, and putting more mass around $650–700, while keeping a meaningful upside tail.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 235
Percentile 1: 315
Percentile 5: 410
Percentile 10: 480
Percentile 20: 565
Percentile 30: 625
Percentile 40: 675
Percentile 50: 720
Percentile 60: 775
Percentile 70: 845
Percentile 80: 940
Percentile 90: 1095
Percentile 95: 1290
Percentile 99: 1700
Percentile 99.9: 2350
(a) Time left until outcome is known. Today is June 9, 2026. The July average starts in about 22 days, ends in about 52 days, and should be published in the World Bank monthly data in early/mid-August; the question’s non-annulment resolution window runs to August 31, 2026. I am forecasting conditional on the question not being annulled. The World Bank commodity page currently shows the May 2026 Pink Sheet and a next update on July 2, 2026, implying July data would normally arrive in early August. (worldbank.org)
(b) Outside view: reference class and base rates. The base rate for Tampa liquid sulfur is normally far below the current crisis range: CRU/BCInsight tables show Tampa f.o.b. contract prices around $69–81/mt in early/mid-2024, then $252–310/mt in late 2025, and $496/mt in Jan-Feb 2026. (bcinsight.crugroup.com) The relevant reference class is “fertilizer input price shock during a shipping/production disruption,” where prices can jump by multiples but usually do not fully normalize within one or two months. The World Bank notes the 2021 and 2022 fertilizer spikes were over 100% and 55%, respectively, and expects the 2026 fertilizer price index to rise more than 30% before easing in 2027. (blogs.worldbank.org)
(c) Inside view: specific evidence updating away from base rates. The evidence is strongly upward versus the historical base rate. World Bank says sulfur prices had doubled since January, Iran halted ammonia production, Qatar suspended urea/ammonia/sulfur after facility damage, and the Strait handles a large share of sulfur and ammonia shipments. (blogs.worldbank.org) The CMO says roughly one-third of global sulfur trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz and nearly half of global sulfur production is internationally traded. (thedocs.worldbank.org) S&P Global reported on May 29 that the crisis had trapped about half of global seaborne sulfur exports, pushed Middle East sulfur to $815–820/mt FOB and Brazil to $1,200/mt CFR, and led to production curtailments by fertilizer producers. (spglobal.com)
(d) Outcome if nothing changed. If the late-May/early-June situation simply persists through July, I would expect the July World Bank Tampa value to resolve around $750–850/mt, with the Q3 settlement/assessment incorporating the higher replacement cost but softened by demand destruction and contract smoothing.
(e) Outcome if the current trend continued. If the Jan/Feb-to-May step-up continues into Q3, I would expect roughly $850–1,100/mt. This is plausible if the Strait remains effectively closed, inventories keep draining, and Q3 contracts price closer to global spot replacement costs.
(f) Expectations of experts and markets. World Bank’s expert baseline is tight 2026 fertilizer markets easing in 2027, with upside risk if shipping and production disruptions persist beyond 2026Q3. (blogs.worldbank.org) Public crowd forecasts for the related June 2026 World Bank sulfur question have clustered around $656–699/mt, suggesting July should be higher than normal but not necessarily at the most extreme Brazil/import-parity levels. (metaculus.com) Regional market signals are also elevated: SMM reported May Middle East official sulfur selling prices of $740–765/mt FOB. (news.metal.com)
(g) Unexpected low-outcome scenario. A durable June peace/reopening deal is implemented faster than expected; Qatar resumes partial sulfur output; insurance rates fall; China or other suppliers release material; and phosphate demand destruction is worse than expected. In that case, the Q3 Tampa settlement could land in the $400–550/mt range despite the earlier crisis.
(h) Unexpected high-outcome scenario. Negotiations fail, fighting resumes, Hormuz remains closed or unsafe into July/August, and further export restrictions or facility damage hits alternative suppliers. If buyers must price against scarce Atlantic or Canadian replacement tons, Tampa could resolve above $1,100/mt, with a tail above $1,500/mt.
Rationale. I anchor first on the pre-crisis and early-crisis Tampa contract levels: about $310/mt in late 2025 and about $496/mt in Jan-Feb 2026. The decisive update is that the disruption was still intensifying into late May, with global benchmarks in the $740–820 FOB range and Brazil import prices around $1,200 CFR, while the official World Bank/CMO narrative points to a structural, not merely sentimental, shortage. The reason I do not put the median near spot-extreme values is that Tampa liquid sulfur is a quarterly/contract-style market, not a fully daily spot series: Argus describes contract pricing as covering at least a three-month period and the Tampa/Central Florida molten sulfur assessment as quarterly. (argusmedia.com) That smooths the series and creates inertia. But the same inertia means even a late-June diplomatic breakthrough would probably not fully flow through to the July value.
My median is therefore $785/mt: above the reported June-related crowd expectation and the reported May Tampa settlement level, but below the extreme global scarcity prices. The left tail reflects a fast de-escalation plus severe demand destruction; the right tail reflects continued closure, further facility damage, or Q3 contract assessment near global replacement cost.
Percentile 0.1: 260 Percentile 1: 330 Percentile 5: 470 Percentile 10: 550 Percentile 20: 630 Percentile 30: 690 Percentile 40: 740 Percentile 50: 785 Percentile 60: 835 Percentile 70: 895 Percentile 80: 970 Percentile 90: 1120 Percentile 95: 1280 Percentile 99: 1540 Percentile 99.9: 2050
Extracted Percentile Values: {0.1: 320, 1.0: 420, 5.0: 500, 10.0: 540, 15.0: 570, 20.0: 595, 25.0: 615, 30.0: 635, 35.0: 655, 40.0: 675, 45.0: 695, 46.0: 700, 47.0: 705, 48.0: 710, 49.0: 715, 50.0: 720, 51.0: 725, 52.0: 732, 53.0: 740, 54.0: 748, 55.0: 758, 60.0: 800, 65.0: 845, 70.0: 890, 75.0: 940, 80.0: 995, 85.0: 1050, 90.0: 1100, 95.0: 1180, 99.0: 1350, 99.9: 1550}
Model’s Answer:
This is a Market Price Event question requiring estimation of the World Bank’s monthly “Liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob” price in USD per metric ton for July 2026, as will be published in Sheet 18.B of the CMO Fertilizers file.
Key price benchmarks observed:
Market drivers:
The World Bank Pink Sheet currently shows data through March 2026. The July 2026 price will likely be published in late August or September 2026 with typical 1-2 month reporting lag.
Assumption 1: Hormuz disruptions persist through July 2026
Assumption 2: No major escalation intensifying supply crisis
Assumption 3: Tampa-specific benchmark tracks general sulfur market trends
Low outcome scenario (~5th percentile, ~$500): Unexpected diplomatic resolution of Hormuz crisis, combined with demand destruction from high prices and successful rerouting of supply chains. Given one month timeframe and no signs of resolution, this seems unlikely but possible.
Central case (~50th percentile, ~$700-720): Disruptions continue at current intensity. Tampa prices remain elevated at or slightly above Q2 contract levels. The ~$656 Metaculus June forecast plus modest continued pressure points to this range.
High outcome scenario (~95th percentile, ~$1150): Further conflict escalation, additional supply disruptions, or panic buying drives Tampa prices toward spot market levels seen in other regions. The gap between Tampa contracts (~$655) and global spot (~$1000+) narrows significantly.
With only ~7 weeks between today and the end of July 2026, prices can move substantially given current crisis conditions. Historical sulfur price spikes show monthly moves of 15-30% are possible during supply disruptions. However, contract-based Tampa prices tend to be somewhat less volatile than spot markets.
The distribution should be wide given:
Final Rationale: I anchor on the Metaculus June 2026 consensus (~$656) as the most relevant comparable for the exact World Bank Tampa series. Given continued disruptions with no signs of resolution, I expect July to be similar or slightly higher, centering my median around $710-720. I maintain substantial uncertainty with a relatively wide distribution to account for both potential de-escalation (unlikely but impactful) and further escalation (more plausible given current trajectory).
Percentile .1: 320 Percentile 1: 420 Percentile 5: 500 Percentile 10: 540 Percentile 15: 570 Percentile 20: 595 Percentile 25: 615 Percentile 30: 635 Percentile 35: 655 Percentile 40: 675 Percentile 45: 695 Percentile 46: 700 Percentile 47: 705 Percentile 48: 710 Percentile 49: 715 Percentile 50: 720 Percentile 51: 725 Percentile 52: 732 Percentile 53: 740 Percentile 54: 748 Percentile 55: 758 Percentile 60: 800 Percentile 65: 845 Percentile 70: 890 Percentile 75: 940 Percentile 80: 995 Percentile 85: 1050 Percentile 90: 1100 Percentile 95: 1180 Percentile 99: 1350 Percentile 99.9: 1550
Monthly sulfur entries are constrained by quarterly settlement conventions that blend end‑quarter contract anchors with ongoing spot trade.
A March contract anchor sits materially below recent spot offers, limiting the degree to which headline spot spikes translate into July.
Severe shipping disruptions and major plant outages have removed significant seaborne volumes and elevated FOB offers across key origins.
Countervailing forces—demand loss from fertilizer curtailments and early buyer rationing—are already moderating physical consumption.
If shipping throughput improves before late June, July will reflect only partial pass‑through and remain nearer the blended settlement level.
If outages and chokepoints persist through late June, July will shift toward contemporaneous spot levels as backlogs clear and rerouting premiums crystallize.
Key uncertainties are the timing of maritime corridor normalization, the repair timeline at major producers, and the speed of demand response among fertilizer manufacturers.
Price sensitivity is highest to short‑run logistics and headline events, while basis differences across regional markets and contract conventions create substantial residual noise.
Forecast (July 2026 World Bank liquid sulfur, Tampa FOB): median = 844.973 USD/metric ton
Resolution will use the World Bank monthly commodity spreadsheet, specifically Sheet 18.B and the “Liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob” series for July 2026. The World Bank commodities page currently links the monthly historical spreadsheet, and the latest official Pink Sheet page visible now includes the June 2, 2026 update. (thedocs.worldbank.org)
The most important structural point is that Tampa liquid sulfur is not just a generic spot series. In North America, molten sulfur pricing is centered on Tampa and is typically negotiated on a quarterly-contract basis; S&P Global’s methodology for the Tampa/Central Florida liquid sulfur assessment explicitly describes it as a quarterly contract market, and older industry analysis notes that the North American liquid market often behaves independently from seaborne solid sulfur because U.S. consumers generally are not equipped to remelt solid sulfur. That makes July especially important, because July 2026 is the first month of Q3 2026 and therefore a likely contract-reset month rather than just a smooth continuation of June. (spglobal.com)
The base rate going into 2026 was already elevated. USGS says Tampa contract sulfur began 2025 at $116 per long ton and later rose to $270 per long ton, while the World Bank wrote in October 2025 that liquid sulfur prices had nearly tripled since end-2024. So the market entered 2026 from a high plateau, not from normal pre-2025 levels. (pubs.usgs.gov)
Then came a much larger shock in 2026. In the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook and its May 14, 2026 fertilizer blog, Qatar is described as having suspended urea, ammonia, and sulfur production after damage to facilities; Iran halted ammonia production; about one-third of global sulfur trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz; and sulfur prices had doubled since January 2026 by April. The same World Bank blog says DAP prices rose more than 10 percent in April, with sulfur a key driver. (thedocs.worldbank.org)
External market evidence points the same way. S&P Global reported that FOB US Gulf sulfur was assessed at $1,060/mt on May 6, 2026, up from $650/mt when that assessment launched on April 2. I do not map that one-for-one into the World Bank’s Tampa liquid sulfur series, because the Tampa molten market is structurally distinct, but it is strong evidence that Q2/Q3 sulfur negotiations are happening in an exceptionally tight global environment. (spglobal.com)
My forecasting logic is therefore: (1) July is likely to reflect a Q3 reset; (2) the reset is being negotiated after a major supply shock and after April/May price escalation; (3) some easing is possible because the World Bank also notes rerouting through land corridors and does not assume an indefinitely worsening shock; but (4) risks remain clearly skewed upward if disruptions persist through or beyond 2026Q3. (blogs.worldbank.org)
The biggest uncertainty is that the accessible World Bank PDF/blog material gives direction and some milestone statements (“doubled since January”) but does not expose the exact current Tampa monthly value in the way the underlying spreadsheet does, so the current Q2 level has to be inferred rather than directly read. That pushes me toward a fairly wide and right-skewed distribution.
My central estimate is a July 2026 World Bank liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob price around $560/mt, with a mean near $592/mt. I place most probability mass between roughly $500 and $640/mt, but keep a substantial right tail into the $700-$1,000+ range in case the Q3 settlement internalizes more of the severe global sulfur shortage than I expect. At the same time, I leave a smaller-but-real easing path into the high $300s to low $400s if rerouting and operational recovery improve faster than the market feared.
I treat July 2026 as mostly a forecast of the next Tampa quarterly sulfur benchmark translated into the World Bank Pink Sheet series. The World Bank fertilizer chapter explicitly uses a monthly series labeled Liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob, while S&P Global’s benchmark list shows a quarterly Liquid Sulfur CPT delivered Tampa/Central Florida assessment in $/lt. Because the World Bank label is FOB but many market references cite Tampa/Central Florida delivered or CFR contract prices, I anchor on the Tampa contract level and then widen the distribution to absorb basis/translation risk. (thedocs.worldbank.org)
A useful base rate is that the Tampa sulfur benchmark has tended to move in chunky quarterly steps. USGS says Tampa contract sulfur prices started 2025 at $116/lt, rose to $270/lt in early April, eased to $252/lt in early July, and then rose to $310/lt in early October. Before the 2026 Middle East shock fully hit, Argus was already reporting expectations that the first-quarter 2026 Tampa sulfur contract would jump to $475-$520/lt delivered from $310/lt delivered. (pubs.usgs.gov)
By spring 2026, the market was much tighter. The World Bank said sulfur prices had doubled since January 2026 and were a key reason DAP prices rose more than 10% in April. Green Markets reported in mid-April that the second-quarter Tampa sulfur contract continued at $655/lt CFR, and Mosaic’s Q1 2026 presentation used the same sulfur benchmark level for May 2026. Mosaic also said benchmark sulfur had recently exceeded $1,200 per tonne, showing that spot conditions had run well above the contracted Tampa benchmark. (blogs.worldbank.org)
There are real offsetting forces for July. On the easing side, the World Bank’s April 2026 outlook assumed the most acute Hormuz disruptions would end in May and shipping would gradually normalize by late 2026, and the Bank’s June 3 update said overall fertilizer prices eased 4.3% in May versus April. On the tightening side, the same World Bank materials say risks remain tilted upward if disruptions continue beyond 2026Q3, S&P Global assessed sulfur FOB US Gulf at $1,060/mt on May 6 after a sharp rise from early April, and Mosaic said refineries were ramping up sulfur exports to capture global prices, reducing its usual U.S. Gulf sulfur advantage. (worldbank.org)
Numerically, $655/lt converts to about $644.7/mt. That is my main near-term anchor, but I do not center the distribution exactly there because of the FOB-versus-delivered basis ambiguity and because July is likely to reflect a new quarter’s settlement rather than simply repeating May. My modal region is therefore the low-to-mid $600s/mt, with meaningful probability of an upward reset into the $700s if export pull from the Gulf keeps Tampa linked to higher global spot prices, and a smaller but non-trivial right tail toward roughly $900-$1,100/mt if disruptions intensify again. I also keep some downside mass into roughly $500-$575/mt in case the ceasefire/shipping normalization assumptions prove mostly right and Q3 contracts correct lower. This leads me to a distribution with mean about $670.5/mt and median in the mid-$600s/mt. The code implements that as a four-component normal mixture: 15% around $520, 50% around $635, 25% around $720, and 10% around $950. Those component choices are my inference from the sources above rather than published forecasts. (worldbank.org)
I am forecasting the World Bank’s July 2026 value for “liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob” as a Q3-2026-type benchmark rather than a noisy daily spot average. The main reason is market structure: BCInsight’s Tampa liquid sulfur table shows the benchmark staying flat within quarters (for example, $252/t in August-September 2025, $310/t in October-December 2025, and $496/t in January-February 2026), and S&P Global’s methodology note describes the closely related North American liquid sulfur benchmark as a quarterly contract market. That is not a perfect one-for-one proof for the World Bank’s FOB Tampa series, but it is strong evidence that July 2026 should behave like a contract reset month rather than like an ordinary volatile spot month. (bcinsight.crugroup.com)
The historical run-up before the current crisis was already large. Tampa liquid sulfur moved from $252/t in mid-2025 to $310/t in late 2025, then to $496/t in early 2026. The World Bank’s May 14, 2026 fertilizer blog says sulfur prices had doubled since January 2026, and links that surge to disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, damage to Qatari facilities, halted Iranian ammonia production, and OCP’s accelerated maintenance in Morocco. The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook also says roughly one-third of global sulfur trade moves through Hormuz and that fertilizer input costs were being pushed up sharply by the conflict. Taken together, that makes a Q2 level around the high hundreds to roughly $1,000/t plausible, far above the Q1 Tampa level. (blogs.worldbank.org)
Contemporaneous market reporting points the same way. On May 4, 2026, Itafos said sulfur prices had “essentially doubled” since the start of the war and that it had seen quotes at or above $1,000/t the prior week. BCInsight’s May 21 price report said QatarEnergy raised its sulfur price to $740/t FOB, Brazil reached $1,000-1,100/t CFR, India was at $800-850/t CFR, China at $800-860/t CFR, and Indonesia was near $1,000/t CFR. S&P Global reported on May 7 that sulfur FOB US Gulf was assessed at $1,060/t, up from $650/t when that assessment launched on April 2. These are not the exact World Bank July resolution series, but they are highly relevant anchors for where a Tampa-linked liquid sulfur benchmark could settle when Q3 terms are set. (itafos.com)
There are also meaningful reasons not to simply extrapolate the panic highs upward. The World Bank’s April 2026 outlook assumed the most acute disruptions would end in May and exports through Hormuz would move back near prewar levels by October 2026. Some vessels had already begun clearing the Strait by May, and very high sulfur prices were triggering demand destruction and production curtailments. Mosaic cut phosphate output and expected a major sulfur-cost headwind, with Q1 consumed sulfur averaging $379/long ton and Q2 projected to rise further; OCP also brought forward maintenance because of sulfur and ammonia disruption. Those factors argue for some retracement from the worst early-May panic pricing by July. (blogs.worldbank.org)
Against that, the upside risk is still large. A late-May joint statement from the IEA, IMF, World Bank Group, and WTO said shipping through Hormuz had still not normalized and that fuel and fertilizer prices could remain high for a prolonged period because of infrastructure damage. BCInsight’s May-Jun issue explicitly said prices were likely to remain at historically high levels as long as Hormuz stayed effectively closed. Policy responses also remained tightening rather than loosening: Turkey banned sulfur exports through the second and third quarters of 2026, and China’s sulfuric acid export halt tightened the broader sulfur/sulfuric-acid complex. This makes a July value above the apparent Q2 level quite possible if Q3 negotiations are struck before logistics materially improve. (worldbank.org)
My synthesis is: July 2026 is most likely to be very high but a bit below the most extreme early-May panic prints, because July sits at the start of Q3 and contract negotiations should incorporate both persistent disruption and some demand destruction. I used three scenarios: fast partial normalization (30%, centered near $750/t), persistent tightness with only limited flow recovery (48%, centered near $940/t), and prolonged severe disruption/escalation (22%, centered near $1,280/t). The scenario-weighted mean is about $962.44/t. That produces a distribution with most mass in roughly the $800-1,100/t region, a meaningful but thinner right tail above $1,200/t, and relatively little probability below $600/t. (bcinsight.crugroup.com)
I treat this as a near-term market question, so the key issue is where the July 2026 Tampa liquid-sulfur benchmark sits after the June reset in global sulfur markets. The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook shows liquid sulfur (Tampa) as a monthly fertilizer-input series with last observation in March 2026, and the World Bank’s May 14, 2026 fertilizer note says sulfur prices had doubled since January 2026 because Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened supply, with Qatar suspending sulfur production after damage to facilities. (thedocs.worldbank.org)
A useful base-rate anchor is how violent the move already was before June. USGS says Tampa contract sulfur prices started 2025 at $116 per long ton, rose to $270 in early April 2025, slipped to $252 in early July 2025, and then rose to $310 in early October 2025. So even before the 2026 Hormuz shock, the market had already been firming. (pubs.usgs.gov)
The closest public market anchor I found for the current U.S. molten market is Argus’ Tampa quarterly contract, with an important caveat: Argus methodology says molten sulfur in Tampa is assessed as quarterly cfr Tampa in US$/long ton, while this question resolves on the World Bank’s monthly liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob series in US$/metric ton. I therefore use the public Tampa contract and global sulfur postings as imperfect but highly informative anchors rather than as a one-for-one mapping. Argus reported that the second-quarter Tampa sulfur settlement reached a record $655/long tonne delivered. Around the same time, QatarEnergy raised its June Qatar Sulphur Price to $805/t fob and Adnoc raised its June official selling price to $860/t fob; Argus also reported Vancouver fobs at $990-1,100/t. (argusmedia.com)
I also put meaningful weight on producer guidance from Mosaic. On its May 11, 2026 earnings call, Mosaic guided second-quarter realized sulfur costs of roughly $540 per ton, warned of an anticipated rise in sulfur price for Q3, and said sulfur availability and affordability were the biggest drivers of its operating decisions. That is strong evidence that the market expected July-September sulfur costs to be above already-elevated second-quarter realized levels, not below them. (marketbeat.com)
Against that, there is some reason not to simply extrapolate straight upward. The World Bank’s June 3, 2026 Pink Sheet note said fertilizer prices eased 4.3% in May, implying at least some temporary cooling in fertilizer inputs. And both the World Bank and Mosaic frame the shock as temporary if shipping fluidity through Hormuz normalizes; the World Bank specifically expects fertilizer prices to ease in 2027 as exports recover, while Mosaic said the main question is how quickly sulfur flows normalize after any conflict resolution. (blogs.worldbank.org)
My synthesis is a four-scenario mixture for the July 2026 World Bank number: 22% relief scenario centered at $610/mt, 48% base scenario centered at $750/mt, 22% tight-upside scenario centered at $890/mt, and 8% extreme-disruption scenario centered at $1,120/mt, each with moderate dispersion. This mixture reflects: (1) July is too soon for a full normalization unless diplomacy moves very fast; (2) public June Middle East postings are already above $800/t fob; (3) the public Tampa quarterly anchor is already at a record; and (4) the resolution series is not identical to the public Argus cfr Tampa contract, so I keep a wider-than-usual band. Supported by those inputs, my implied mean forecast is $779.6/mt, with a median in the upper-$700s, roughly a 50% interval of about $680-$880/mt, and an 80% interval of about $610-$1,010/mt. (argusmedia.com)
The resolution source is the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), specifically the fertilizers monthly data workbook / Sheet 18.B column “Liquid sulfur (Tampa), fob” for July 2026. The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook uses the same series in Figure 18.B and notes that it is a monthly series through March 2026. (thedocs.worldbank.org)
A key modeling point is that Tampa liquid sulfur behaves like a quarterly contract benchmark, so the World Bank’s “monthly” observations tend to be stepwise within a quarter. USGS says the Tampa contract began 2025 at 116, rose to 270 in early April, fell to 252 in early July, and rose to 310 in early October 2025. BCInsight’s sulphur tables match that exact pattern and then show Tampa f.o.b. contract values of 496 in January-February 2026, which strongly suggests the July 2026 World Bank print will mostly reflect the Q3 2026 contract settlement rather than a spot average. I am therefore forecasting the Q3 reset. The further inference I make is that the World Bank number is numerically aligned with this contract series, despite industry sources sometimes describing the contract in long-ton/delivered terms; that inference is based on the historical one-for-one match between the published contract levels and the values shown in industry tables. (pubs.usgs.gov)
The current anchor is high. Argus reported that the second-quarter Tampa sulfur settlement reached a new record at $655/long tonne delivered. That places the benchmark in the mid-650s going into July. At the same time, the World Bank and CRU/BCInsight describe a genuine supply shock: Iran halted ammonia production, Qatar suspended urea/ammonia/sulfur after damage to facilities, and roughly one-third of global sulfur trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. BCInsight also reported record May Middle East sulphur official selling prices around $740-$765/t f.o.b., with Brazil testing around $1,150/t c.fr., so spot and import markets were trading above the Tampa contract anchor. (argusmedia.com)
Directionally, the latest evidence still points upward into July, but not without offsets. On May 28, CRU/BCInsight said the fundamental sulphur supply picture remained acutely tight, only a slow trickle of vessels was getting through Hormuz, and the upward sulphur price trend was expected to continue until July. Offsetting that, the same note said price increases had paused as demand concerns grew. Separately, the World Bank’s April 2026 baseline assumed the most acute disruptions would end in May and shipping would gradually return toward pre-conflict levels by late 2026, while a later joint statement from the World Bank, IEA, IMF, and WTO still emphasized that higher fuel and fertilizer prices were persisting. My base case is therefore: higher than Q2, but not a straight-line jump all the way to Brazil-like spot extremes. (bcinsight.crugroup.com)
Numerically, I used four negotiation regimes for the Q3 settlement / July print: 15% weight on a fast-easing or near-flat outcome centered around 660; 45% on a moderate increase centered around 760; 30% on continued tightness centered around 845; and 10% on a renewed squeeze centered around 1000. This mixture implies a mean near 795 and a median around 780, with most of the probability mass roughly between 650 and 950. So my modal region is the high-700s to mid-800s, and my single best point estimate is about 790-800. I keep a meaningful upper tail because July is likely to be a contract-reset month, and the most recent specialist market commentary explicitly expected the sulphur uptrend to continue into that month. (argusmedia.com)