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Question: will Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) exceed $3,100/40ft on any weekly Drewry print between the first eligible June assessment and the final eligible August 6, 2026 print? The latest cited Drewry composite is about $2,800 (late May), so the index needs a further +10.7% to cross; that is mechanically possible in one week but would require re‑acceleration above the recent +3.2% weekly rise. Forecasters point to strong near‑term bullish signals—June carrier FAK/GRI/PSS filings (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag‑Lloyd), ~7% blank sailings concentrated on transpacific and Asia–Europe, and front‑loading pressure corroborated by Freightos and SCFI—as reasons most event probability is concentrated in the first two–three June prints. Counterarguments are that posted increases often only partially stick, industry overcapacity and mixed demand forecasts (NRF/Hackett, Maersk) could cap upside, and if the early June prints don’t cross the threshold odds fall. Historical precedents (2024 Red Sea shock, 2025 front‑loading burst) show crossings more often occur via discrete shocks than slow drift. Individual probability estimates cluster around the high‑50% range (several agents ~58–58.5%), with one forecaster a bit higher (~68%), and the remainder of probability assigned to no qualifying assessment by the August cutoff.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
All four analysts agree the latest available WCI assessment (2026-05-28) is about $2,800/FEU and that the index has risen for several consecutive weeks. Exceeding $3,100 requires a further ~10.7% increase, which is plausible over several weeks in an early peak-season upswing, but not guaranteed because (a) the most recent weekly gain slowed to ~3%, (b) announced FAK/PSS increases are not always fully realized in spot/contract pricing immediately, and (c) capacity/demand shifts can arrest or reverse the move.
I treat the assessment cadence as weekly (Thursdays), so the relevant in-window candidate dates are 2026-06-04 through 2026-08-06. Compared with the individual forecasts: Forecaster 4 appears overconfident about an immediate June 4 jump (placing ~50%+ on that single date). Forecasters 1 and 3 look better calibrated on uncertainty and open-tail risk, while Forecaster 2 likely underweights the chance the index fails to clear $3,100 by the deadline.
Synthesizing: I assign meaningful probability to a June 4 or June 11 crossing due to June 1 surcharges/GRIs, but keep the median later (late June) given the size of the required jump and the possibility of partial/lagged pass-through. I also retain a material OPEN-AFTER tail (roughly mid-teens probability) to reflect the chance rates plateau below $3,100 through 2026-08-12.
An amateur forecast would often (i) linearly extrapolate the last week or two of changes and produce an overconfident single-date answer, or (ii) ignore the weekly assessment cadence and the OPEN-AFTER possibility. This forecast instead blends trend extrapolation with the known discrete weekly publication schedule, explicitly accounts for uncertain pass-through of announced surcharges, and preserves non-trivial probability that the threshold is not crossed by 2026-08-12 (encoded via percentiles placed strictly after the bound). I’m moderately confident this is better calibrated than a typical amateur extrapolation and less brittle than the most aggressive single-date forecast.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the rationales, the core expectation is that Drewry’s World Container Index is already close enough to the $3,100 threshold that a relatively modest further rise should push it over soon. The main drivers cited are:
The models broadly agree that the threshold is most likely to be crossed in June, with the strongest clustering around:
They also generally see June 11 as a plausible earlier-crossing date if surcharge effects and demand strengthen quickly enough.
The main differences are not about direction, but about timing and tail risk:
The collective reasoning is that upward freight-rate momentum, June surcharge pass-through, and seasonal demand should push the WCI above $3,100 fairly soon, most likely mid-to-late June, with June 18–25 the central window and June 11 an earlier but less certain possibility.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, there is strong agreement that Drewry’s World Container Index is likely to break above $3,100 relatively soon, with the balance of reasoning pointing to early-to-mid June 2026 as the most likely window, and late June as a secondary possibility.
The collective reasoning is that the index is close enough to the threshold, and the combination of strong upward momentum and powerful June shipping-rate catalysts is likely to push it over $3,100 within a few weekly assessment cycles. The main uncertainty is not whether it will happen soon, but whether the first crossing occurs in early June or slips into late June.
— Iteration 3 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning is consistent:
Overall consensus: the index is expected to cross in mid-to-late June, with the strongest concentration around the June 11–18 assessment dates.
Current Baseline and Upward Momentum Forecasters note that the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) currently sits just below the target threshold, requiring roughly an 11% increase to exceed $3,100. The index has recently demonstrated extreme upward volatility, proving that a single- or two-week jump of this magnitude is highly plausible under current market conditions.
Market Constraints and Early Demand The global shipping market is experiencing an artificially early “peak season.” Western importers are aggressively front-loading cargo to avoid potential late-summer supply chain crises and tariff risks. This surge in demand is colliding with severely restricted global vessel capacity, driven by ongoing Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz routing diversions, as well as carriers actively tightening supply through widespread “blank sailings.”
Imminent Carrier Surcharges The primary catalysts expected to drive the WCI over the threshold are the coordinated, aggressive rate hikes announced by major ocean carriers (such as CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC, and ONE). A massive wave of Peak Season Surcharges (PSS), General Rate Increases (GRIs), and Freight All Kinds (FAK) hikes are scheduled to take effect throughout early and mid-June. Because the WCI is heavily weighted toward the Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes targeted by these premium hikes, the composite index is expected to face intense upward pressure immediately.
Assessment Timing and Downside Risks Drewry publishes the WCI weekly on Thursdays. Forecasters broadly agree that the early-to-mid-June assessment dates are the most critical, as they will capture the immediate shock and subsequent spot-market integration of the June rate hikes. However, rationales also highlight a distinct downside risk: if shippers successfully negotiate down these surcharges, or if the structural oversupply of newly built vessels entering the market in 2026 begins to outpace demand, the rate hikes could fail to stick. In that scenario, the WCI’s momentum could stall before reaching $3,100, delaying the crossing until late summer or failing to reach the threshold altogether.
Question: On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 3: Probability distribution:
The research reports that Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) stood at $2,800 per 40-foot container on May 28, 2026, leaving a $300 (10.7%) gap to exceed $3,100. The index has risen for four consecutive weeks (from $2,553 on May 14 to $2,800 on May 28) and is published weekly every Thursday at 9:45 AM, with qualifying assessment dates from June 4 through August 12. Drivers cited for continued rate increases include geopolitical disruptions (Strait of Hormuz/Red Sea diversions), sharply higher fuel costs, an early peak season and frontloading of cargo, carrier capacity management including blank sailings and new surcharges, and route-specific spikes (e.g., Shanghai–Genoa $4,253; Shanghai–New York $4,597) even though the WCI composite averages eight routes and thus lags the highest lanes. Historical context notes WCI peaks (June 2025: $3,543; 2021–22 peaks above $3,100), analyst forecasts expecting further increases (Drewry, Trading Economics, industry sources), and prediction-market searches turning up no direct market for this specific threshold.
Trajectory analysis in the research projects that, if current weekly growth continues, crossing $3,100 most likely falls in mid-June: under 3% weekly growth ~4 weeks (late June), 5–6% weekly growth ~2 weeks (mid-June), and the research identifies June 11–18, 2026 as the most probable window (June 4 as moderate probability if June 1 surcharges trigger an immediate spike), while noting upside risks (escalating disruptions, surcharges, stronger peak demand) and downside risks (de-escalation of Middle East tensions, demand weakening, added capacity). The resolution window is extended through August 12, 2026, leaving substantial uncertainty despite a near-term bias toward mid-June exceedance.
Sources cited in the research:
Latest WCI Reading: $2,800 per 40-foot container as of May 28, 2026 [11][13][26]
Gap to Target: The WCI needs to increase by $300 (10.7%) to exceed $3,100 per 40ft container.
Recent Trajectory: The index has risen for four consecutive weeks:
The WCI is published weekly every Thursday at 9:45 AM [25]. Qualifying assessment dates in the resolution window include:
1. Geopolitical Disruptions
2. Fuel Cost Surge
3. Early Peak Season
4. Carrier Capacity Management
5. New Surcharges and Rate Announcements
While the composite WCI is at $2,800, individual routes already significantly exceed $3,100:
The WCI is a composite index averaging eight major routes, so it lags behind the highest individual routes [11][14].
Recent Historical Peaks:
Context: Current rates ($2,800) are 21% below the June 2025 peak of $3,543 and significantly below 2021-2022 pandemic-era peaks. The market has historically demonstrated ability to spike above $3,100 during supply chain disruptions.
If current growth rates continue:
Most likely assessment dates to first exceed $3,100:
Upside risks (earlier exceedance):
Downside risks (later or no exceedance):
No specific prediction markets were identified forecasting this particular Drewry WCI question on platforms like Metaculus or Polymarket in available search results.
Based on current momentum (10.7% increase needed from $2,800 to $3,100), strong fundamental drivers, carrier pricing power through surcharges and capacity management, and analyst expectations, the most probable window is June 11-18, 2026. However, significant uncertainty remains due to geopolitical volatility and potential demand shifts. The resolution window extends through August 12, providing substantial time for the threshold to be exceeded if near-term growth moderates.
Conditioning on not annulled. I am still including the “no qualifying assessment by cutoff” outcome in the right tail, represented by dates after 2026-08-12.
I accept the critic’s main adjustment: my June 4 probability should be a bit lower. The strongest reason is not that the market lacks upward pressure; it is that June 4 requires a very specific thing: a one-week composite move of about +10.75% from Drewry’s May 28 WCI of $2,800 to strictly exceed $3,100. Drewry’s May 28 update was clearly bullish—fourth consecutive weekly rise, Shanghai–Rotterdam at $2,861, Shanghai–Genoa at $4,253, Shanghai–Los Angeles at $3,473, Shanghai–New York at $4,597, and Drewry expecting further upward pressure from early peak season, FAK/PSS actions, blank sailings, and July bunker-adjustment pull-forward. But the laggard/high-weight parts of the basket still need to move enough, not merely the already-high routes. (drewry.co.uk)
The methodology critique is valid and important. WCI is a volume-weighted composite of eight routes; it uses agreed rates on cargo moving or expected to move, excludes quotes/tariffs/bids/offers, requires 7-day-to-1-month validity, and trims route-level submissions more than 30% away from the median. That makes a one-week headline FAK/PSS translation into the composite less automatic than my earlier bullish version implied. Still, Drewry’s methodology does include bunker adjustment factors, peak-season surcharges, emergency risk and other applicable surcharges when they are part of agreed freight, so accepted June surcharges can move the index quickly. (drewry.co.uk)
I also still think the SCFI/Lloyd’s List evidence is genuinely bullish, just not mechanically predictive. Lloyd’s List reported the SCFI global composite up 16% in the week ending May 29, with bunker/fuel cost pressure and demand pull-forward into June adding support. That meaningfully raises the chance that June 1 increases are already becoming transaction-relevant. But SCFI is not WCI, and the one-day publication difference may partly reflect overlapping market information rather than a fully new shock. (lloydslist.com)
My updated distribution is therefore slightly less compressed than before: June 4 remains large but no longer quite one-third+, June 11 remains the median/modal single date, June 18 is still substantial, and the right tail is a bit fatter. Approximate mass I now have in mind:
The key conditional insight: if June 4 prints around $3,000–$3,090, that is not bearish—it would make June 11 very likely. If June 4 is below roughly $2,950, I would sharply increase the failed-GRI / July-or-later tail.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 5: 2026-06-04
Percentile 10: 2026-06-04
Percentile 20: 2026-06-04
Percentile 30: 2026-06-11
Percentile 40: 2026-06-11
Percentile 50: 2026-06-11
Percentile 60: 2026-06-11
Percentile 70: 2026-06-18
Percentile 80: 2026-06-25
Percentile 90: 2026-07-02
Percentile 95: 2026-07-23
Percentile 99: 2026-11-15
Percentile 99.9: 2027-04-15
The critic’s latest point is persuasive: I likely overcorrected slightly against early June. The key update is that June 1 is a genuine discontinuity, not just a narrative marker. Drewry’s methodology dampens pure-announcement effects because WCI uses agreed rates on cargo moving or expected to move, not quotes/tariffs/offers; but it also includes BAF, emergency bunker, PSS, risk, Suez/Gulf of Aden and related surcharges when applicable, so successful surcharge pass-through can move the index quickly. (drewry.co.uk)
I still do not want to move the median earlier than June 18. From the May 28 official print of $2,800, a strict crossing of $3,100 requires about +10.7%. The latest weekly Drewry increase was only 3%, and Shanghai–Rotterdam, a key marginal route, was still $2,861 even though Shanghai–Genoa and transpacific lanes were already higher. (drewry.co.uk) A June 4 crossing therefore requires a large, immediate, broad-based repricing.
But I now put a bit more weight back onto June 4 / June 11. Drewry itself says rates are under further upward pressure from early peak season demand, FAK/PSS increases, blank sailings, front-loading ahead of July bunker adjustment, and elevated bunker/fuel-surcharge pressure. (drewry.co.uk) Xeneta’s May 28 update corroborates that front-haul markets were still moving upward, with May 27 market-average rates of $3,272 FE–USWC, $4,372 FE–USEC, $2,860 FE–North Europe, and $4,304 FE–Mediterranean, plus early-June spot rates described as still rising across major front-haul trades. (ajot.com)
So my updated shape is a barbell: if June 1 repricing sticks, first crossing is probably by June 11 or June 18; if it does not, that is strong evidence of failed GRI/surcharge pass-through and raises the no-cross tail. Conditional on non-annulment, I now estimate roughly: ~11–12% by June 4, ~42–44% by June 11, ~64–66% by June 18, ~75% by June 25, ~81% by July 2, ~85% by July 9, ~92–93% by August 6, leaving about 7–8% for no qualifying assessment by the cutoff.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 5: 2026-06-04
Percentile 10: 2026-06-04
Percentile 20: 2026-06-11
Percentile 30: 2026-06-11
Percentile 40: 2026-06-11
Percentile 50: 2026-06-18
Percentile 60: 2026-06-18
Percentile 70: 2026-06-25
Percentile 80: 2026-07-02
Percentile 90: 2026-08-06
Percentile 95: 2026-10-15
Percentile 99: 2027-06-03
Percentile 99.9: 2028-06-01
Conditioning on no annulment, I accept the critic’s main correction: my first distribution was too front-loaded. The most important valid point is methodological: WCI is based on agreed freight rates on cargo moving or expected to move, not carrier quotes/offers, and the composite is volume-weighted across eight routes. Surcharges can matter, but only when actually embedded in agreed ocean freight, so June 1 announcements should not be treated as mechanically flowing into the June 4 composite print. (drewry.co.uk)
I still think the critic may be a little too bearish on the central June crossing. Drewry’s May 28 assessment has the composite at $2,800, up for a fourth week; Drewry explicitly points to early peak-season demand, June pull-forward ahead of a July bunker adjustment, FAK/PSS increases, blank sailings, and expects further upward pressure. That means the index needs only a bit over 10.7% from the latest print, and the relevant catalysts are not merely speculative—they are already showing in Asia–Europe and Transpacific spot rates. (drewry.co.uk)
The key update is that I now treat the June 1 surcharge period as a mixture: there is a real step-change chance, but a sizable chance of partial realization / lag / shipper resistance. I also put more weight on the “if it hasn’t crossed by late June, something is wrong with the bullish thesis” dynamic: the hazard falls after the early peak/frontloading period, creating a fatter July/August/no-cross tail rather than a smooth march upward.
My revised CDF is roughly: ~13% by June 4, ~45–48% by June 11, ~70–72% by June 18, ~82% by June 25, high-80s by July 2, low-90s by mid-July, and ~96–97% by August 6, leaving ~3–4% for no qualifying crossing before the cutoff.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 1: 2026-06-04
Percentile 5: 2026-06-04
Percentile 10: 2026-06-04
Percentile 20: 2026-06-11
Percentile 30: 2026-06-11
Percentile 40: 2026-06-11
Percentile 50: 2026-06-18
Percentile 60: 2026-06-18
Percentile 70: 2026-06-18
Percentile 80: 2026-06-25
Percentile 90: 2026-07-16
Percentile 95: 2026-08-06
Percentile 99: 2026-08-13
Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-13
Modal: Jun 08, 2026 to Jun 18, 2026 (27.0%) • partial_shift • 8m21s
Reading: strict
The resolution criteria are highly explicit and literal: the threshold is strictly greater than $3,100 (not ≥), the composite index is specified (not any route), the revision window is precisely 7 calendar days, and the fallback resolution and annulment trigger are each spelled out with exact timestamps. This leaves almost no room for charitable or inclusive interpretation.
Total evidence registered (shared pool): ?
| Variant | Perspective | Model | Turns | Tools | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | inside_view (inside_view_v1) | anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6 | 25 | 37 | OK |
| 1 | outside_view (outside_view_v1) | anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6 | 24 | 41 | OK |
| 2 | contrarian (contrarian_v1) | anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6 | 25 | 39 | OK |
Evidence confidence: medium
high evidence]Current 3–6%/week rally continues for 2–4 more weeks driven by June frontloading ahead of July 1 BAF reset and new Section 301 tariffs; vessel space is critically tight (source 52); Drewry itself expects further increases (source 21); carrier GRI/FAK actions already in place; SCFI surged 16% in week of May 29 (source 38); gap to $3,100 is only ~10.7% from the May 28 level of $2,800; bullish survival model median crossing ~June 18 (source 33).
WCI was already at $2,800 and GJO crowd forecasters assigned only ~9.4% probability to WCI ≥ $3,100 on June 25 (source 41, though possibly stale); 2025 precedent shows peaks are short-lived (source 40); structural overcapacity headwinds (source 39); US-bound rates may soften second half of June (source 16); Xeneta said trade truce will not revive markets (source 29).
medium evidence]SCFI surged 16% in the week of May 29 (source 38), US West Coast +31.55%, suggesting extraordinary momentum; carriers implemented GRIs and FAK increases effective June 1; CMA CGM FAK at $4,700/FEU implies aggressive rate setting; if WCI tracks SCFI with even partial correlation, a single-week 10–11% WCI jump would clear $3,100; P10 in the bullish survival model is ~June 5 (source 33).
WCI and SCFI measure different things and do not move in lockstep; a single-week 10.7% WCI jump from $2,800 is large by recent standards (weekly gains have been 3–6%); May 28 WCI already reflected some of the June 1 carrier rate announcement effects; no direct Drewry WCI reading for June 4 is available.
medium evidence]Rally continues but at a decelerating pace after June peak; July 1 BAF reset creates a second demand surge as Q3 rates reset; peak season traditionally extends through July–August; Wan Hai executive’s prediction of strong rates through Q3 may be correct but $3,100 crossing occurs later than June (sources 44, 17); 90th-percentile survival model places crossing around July 2 (source 33).
Historical 2025 precedent shows WCI peaked and declined sharply back below $3,100 within 3 weeks of crossing it (source 40); July 24 Section 122 expiry could abruptly dampen demand after frontloading exhaustion; structural overcapacity is persistent (source 39); demand pull-forward into June may leave July weaker (source 36).
medium evidence]Rally loses momentum after June frontloading exhausts; structural overcapacity depresses rates; historical 2025 peak was driven by a specific strong catalyst (tariff pause) that may not recur with equivalent force; GJO crowd forecasters assigned large probability mass below $3,100 on June 25 (source 41); Trading Economics model-based forecast of $2,822 at end of Q2 2026 implies flat/modest growth (source 23); bear-case survival model puts only 56% probability of crossing by Aug 12 (source 37); S&P Global projects rates down 13.7% in 2026 vs 2025 (source 9).
WCI is already at $2,800 and only $300 from the threshold; multiple concurrent demand catalysts in June–July 2026 are unlike typical off-peak periods; vessel space is already critically tight (source 52); Drewry itself forecasts further rate increases (source 21); the $300 gap is small relative to recent weekly gains.
inside_view_v1)Inside View Causal Analysis
Current state → causal chain:
Starting from WCI at $2,800 on May 28, 2026 (source 1), the gap to $3,100 is ~$300 (10.7%). The bullish scenario (“high” relative evidence strength) centers on the causal chain: critically tight vessel space out of China/SE Asia (source 52) + carrier GRIs/FAK effective June 1 (source 11) + shippers frontloading before July 1 BAF reset (source 51) + new Section 301 tariffs on China imports effective July (source 47) → sustained weekly rate increases continuing through June at 3-6%/week → WCI crosses $3,100 in June 2026.
Probability of crossing before Aug 12: The bullish survival model (high-evidence, shape=1.5) puts P(by Aug 12) ~99.76% with median ~June 18 (source 33). The conservative model (medium evidence, shape=1.2) gives ~87.5% (source 35). The bear case (medium evidence, shape=0.8) gives ~56% (source 37). The “never” scenario’s evidence is medium-strength and relies on overcapacity + possible rally exhaustion. I weight:
- Bullish model (high evidence): ~60% of weight
- Conservative model (medium): ~25% of weight
- Bear case (medium): ~15% of weight
Weighted P(cross by Aug 12) ≈ 0.6×0.9976 + 0.25×0.875 + 0.15×0.56 ≈ 0.599 + 0.219 + 0.084 ≈ ~90%
So >Aug 12, equivalent to never (bin_8) gets ~10%.
Timing distribution within the crossing window:
Drewry publishes on Thursdays. Thursdays in window:
- Jun 4, Jun 11, Jun 18, Jun 25 (bin_0/bin_1/bin_2)
- Jul 2, Jul 9 (bin_3/bin_4)
- Jul 16, Jul 23, Jul 30 (bin_5/bin_6)
- Aug 6 (bin_7)
Conditional on crossing, the bullish survival model gives:
- P10 ~June 5 (Thursday June 4): ~10% of crossings before Jun 5
- Median ~June 18: ~50% by June 18
- P90 ~July 2: ~90% by July 2
The causal mechanism: SCFI surged 15.94% week of May 29 (source 38), CMA CGM FAK effective June 1, and WCI only needs 10.7% to break threshold. The June 4 assessment is where we could see this jump. However, weekly WCI gains have been 3-6%, so a single 10.7% jump is at the high end — more likely it takes 2-3 weeks (June 11-18).
Conditional on crossing (90% total probability):
- Jun 4-8, i.e., Jun 4 (bin_0): ~12% conditional (WCI needs ~10.7% in one week, SCFI suggests this is possible but WCI tends to lag)
- Jun 8-18, i.e., Jun 11 (bin_1): ~30% conditional
- Jun 18-27, i.e., Jun 18, 25 (bin_2): ~25% conditional
- Jun 27-Jul 6, i.e., Jul 2 (bin_3): ~15% conditional
- Jul 6-15, i.e., Jul 9 (bin_4): ~8% conditional
- Jul 15-25, i.e., Jul 16, 23 (bin_5): ~5% conditional
- Jul 25-Aug 3, i.e., Jul 30 (bin_6): ~3% conditional
- Aug 3-12, i.e., Aug 6 (bin_7): ~2% conditional
Absolute probabilities (× 90%):
- bin_0: 0.12 × 0.90 = 0.108
- bin_1: 0.30 × 0.90 = 0.270
- bin_2: 0.25 × 0.90 = 0.225
- bin_3: 0.15 × 0.90 = 0.135
- bin_4: 0.08 × 0.90 = 0.072
- bin_5: 0.05 × 0.90 = 0.045
- bin_6: 0.03 × 0.90 = 0.027
- bin_7: 0.02 × 0.90 = 0.018
- bin_8: 0.10 (never by Aug 12)
- bin_9 through bin_12: 0 (these resolve as “>Aug 12” which maps to bin_8 if not crossed by Aug 12)
Wait — the question states if not crossed by Aug 12 it resolves as “>2026-08-12”. Bins 8-12 cover different post-deadline periods, but since the question resolves as a specific date OR “>Aug 12”, all “never” mass goes to bin_8. Bins 9-12 would only apply if the crossing date is in those future windows, but the resolution window ENDS at Aug 12 — so anything not crossing by Aug 12 resolves as “>Aug 12T12:00” which falls in Aug 12 to Oct 25 (bin_8). I’ll put all “never” mass in bin_8.
Total: 0.108+0.270+0.225+0.135+0.072+0.045+0.027+0.018+0.10 = 1.000 ✓
outside_view_v1)Reference class: weekly Drewry WCI episodes during early peak-season rallies where the index is already near $2,700–$2,800 and demand catalysts (frontloading, GRIs, bunker/BAF resets, tariffs) are present. Historical behavior in 2024–2025 shows multiple rapid peak-season exceedances of $3,100 (e.g., June 2025 peak at ~$3,543, and broad exceedance during late 2024–early 2025) (sources 5,22,24,32,42). Base-rate proxy: conditional survival-model and recent analogs summarized in the brief imply a high chance of crossing by the Aug 12 deadline — conservative model P(by Aug 12) ≈ 87.5% and a bullish model ≈ 99.8% (sources 35,33). Adjustment: because evidence quality is only medium and the question requires a strict reading (composite WCI > $3,100, threshold strictly greater than 3,100, and the composite series is smoothed relative to route indices) I shrink the headline survival-model mass modestly (−10 pp) to account for structural overcapacity, historical rapid reversals after short spikes, and model/method uncertainty (sources 39,40,43). Final P(by Aug 12) ≈ 77.5% allocated across assessment-date bins (most mass in June because the brief tags the “Threshold crossed in June” scenario as high evidence strength: WCI = $2,800 on 28 May (source 1), Drewry expects further increases (source 21), bullish survival median ≈ June 18 with P10 ≈ June 5 (source 33), and SCFI and other spot indices surged late May indicating immediate momentum (source 38)). Allocation notes and justification: - High-evidence June window (bins 0–2: May 30–Jun08, Jun08–Jun18, Jun18–Jun27) receives the bulk (60%) because the brief labels the June-crossing scenario as high evidence and the median/p10 from the survival model cluster in mid–early June (source 33) and carriers/market signals (CMA CGM FAK, Wan Hai comments, SCFI, BAF/tariff frontloading) strongly support near-term upside (sources 11,44,38,51,47). - Moderate chance (17%) assigned to late-June/July assessment ranges (bins 3–6) reflecting the conservative survival-model tail and the plausible-but-less-certain scenario that crossing happens later in July if momentum decelerates (sources 35,33,17). - Small mass (0.5%) on Aug 03–Aug 12 (bin_7) for late, last-week crossings inside the deadline. - Remaining mass (22.5%) assigned to >2026-08-12 (bin_8) representing the credible bear-case where momentum fades, structural overcapacity and post-frontloading demand cliffs prevent a >$3,100 reading before the deadline (sources 37,23,39,9,41,43). Additional methodological notes: I follow the interpretation’s strict reading (threshold strictly > $3,100; composite value; 7-day revision rule; dates treated at 00:00:00 UTC) and widen the distribution relative to the most aggressive model because confidence_in_evidence is medium (per brief). The distribution places materially more mass on the brief’s high-evidence scenario (June) per the hard-rule weighting of scenario evidence strengths.
contrarian_v2)Adversarial reading
The implicit consensus in the brief is that the current 3–6%/week rally (May 28 WCI already at $2,800, only $300 below threshold) plus concentrated June catalysts (July 1 BAF reset, new Section 301 tariffs, tight space) will push the composite above $3,100 on a Thursday assessment in June 2026, with the high-evidence scenario centering around the June 18 median from the bullish survival model.
Counter-evidence found (or absence)
Counter-evidence exists and is substantive: GJO crowd forecasters assigned only ~9.4% probability to ≥$3,100 on June 25 (source 41, possibly stale); the 2025 precedent shows a $3,543 peak collapsing below $3,000 within three weeks once the catalyst exhausted (source 40); structural 10%+ overcapacity persists (source 39); the bear-case survival model gives only 56% probability of crossing by Aug 12 (source 37); and Trading Economics forecasts flat $2,822 at end-Q2 (source 23). These items directly challenge both the magnitude and durability of any June spike.
Distribution implications
The high-evidence June-crossing scenario still receives the largest combined mass (bins 0–2), but the documented counter-evidence shifts probability leftward within June (more on the earliest Thursday assessments) and adds modest tail mass to the post-Aug-12 bins relative to a naive consensus that would ignore the 2025 precedent and overcapacity. Bins 3–7 receive less mass than the high-evidence scenario alone would suggest because the same counter-evidence implies any crossing is likely to be brief and front-loaded.
Strategy: logit_mean • Drafts: 3/3
anchoring_v1The draft places ~19.4% of mass in May 30–Jun 8, i.e., the June 4 assessment (bin_0) and ~26.9% in Jun 8–18 (bin_1), meaning ~46% of total probability sits in the first two assessment dates. This represents anchoring to the P10 of the bullish survival model (June 5) rather than the median (~June 18). The brief explicitly notes that “weekly WCI gains have been 3–6%” and that “a single-week 10.7% WCI jump is at the high end,” yet bin_0 is assigned nearly as much mass as bin_1, which spans two full assessment dates. The forecaster’s own rationale states “more likely it takes 2–3 weeks (June 11–18)” yet still assigns 12% conditional probability to bin_0 — the optimistic extreme of a 2–5 week window. Additionally, the GJO crowd (source 41) assigns only ~9.4% to WCI ≥ $3,100 on June 25 specifically (though possibly stale), suggesting the crowd’s modal expectation is not a June 4 crossing. The modal expectation given a single ~3–6%/week gain rate starting at $2,800 is a crossing around June 11–18, making bin_1 the rightful peak-mass bin, with bin_0 overweighted relative to the modal scenario.
ceiling_v1The critical structural constraint is the fallback resolution rule: if no qualifying assessment occurs on or before 2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00, the question resolves as “>2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00” — which maps to bin_8 (Aug 12, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026), NOT to bins 9–12. The draft correctly identifies this but then leaks ~0.95% of mass into bins 9–12 (bin_9=0.0011, bin_10=0.0023, bin_11=0.0023, bin_12=0.0030), totaling ~0.87%. This is structurally impossible: the question resolves in one of exactly two ways — either a specific date within the window (bins 0–7) or the single fallback “>2026-08-12” (bin_8). There is no mechanism by which the question can resolve as a date in Oct 2026, Jan 2027, Mar 2027, or after Jun 2027, since those fall entirely outside the observation window and the “never by Aug 12” resolution produces a single catchall outcome. The ~0.87% leak into bins 9–12 must be folded entirely into bin_8, raising it from ~6.99% to ~7.86%. Additionally, the $3,100 threshold is a hard ceiling relative to the current $2,800 starting level: at 3–6%/week growth, the index needs exactly 2–4 weeks to clear the ~$300 gap, structurally concentrating mass in bins 0–3 (June) rather than spreading it uniformly into July–August bins. The draft already partially accounts for this, but the post-window leak undermines the internal consistency.
math_v1The draft forecast exhibits a critical internal inconsistency in its probability accounting for the terminal bin (bin_8, “>Aug 12”). The rationale states P(crossing by Aug 12) ≈ 90% across variants, which implies ~10% should be assigned to the never/post-deadline resolution (bin_8). However, the draft assigns only 0.0699 (6.99%) to bin_8, creating a shortfall of ~3 percentage points. This discrepancy suggests the forecaster either understates the bear case or miscalibrates the quantitative models. Additionally, the draft’s conditional allocation within-window (claiming 0.12 conditional to June 4, 0.30 to June 11, etc.) is internally inconsistent when multiplied out: the absolute probabilities sum to ~0.90, but the labeled bins (bins 9–12, which cover post-Aug-12 dates) are all assigned zero, violating the constraint that probabilities must sum to 1.0 across all bins including terminal resolution.
Reviews consumed: 3
The ceiling reviewer correctly flagged a structural inconsistency: bins 9-12 must be zero because non-crossing by Aug 12 collapses to a single “>Aug 12” outcome that maps entirely to bin_8 — I accepted this fully and zeroed those bins. The math reviewer also flagged that the draft’s bin_8 mass (~7%) plus the leaked bins 9-12 (~0.9%) is below the ~10% never-crossing probability implied by the weighted survival models — I accepted this and raised bin_8 to ~9%, reflecting the consolidated draft’s ~92% crossing probability while remaining slightly more bullish than the inside-view’s 10% given strong June catalysts (BAF reset, Section 301 frontloading, SCFI +16% week of May 29). The anchoring reviewer argued bin_0 was overweighted relative to the survival-model median of June 18 and that mass should shift to bin_1; I partially accepted by trimming bin_0 from ~19% to 13% but did not go as far as their 8% because the SCFI’s +16% surge and CMA CGM’s June 1 FAK at $4,700/FEU make a June 4 reading materially above $3,100 plausible. I rejected the anchoring reviewer’s heavy weighting of the stale GJO crowd forecast (source 41 acknowledged stale at $2,800). Net result is a partial_shift: fixed the bins 9-12 leak, modestly raised bin_8, shifted some bin_0 mass into bin_1/bin_2.
[anchoring] Bin_0 (June 4 assessment) is overweighted and should be cut to ~8% with mass shifted toward bin_1 and the GJO crowd’s conservative ~9.4% probability for June 25 should anchor more weight to later/never bins.
[anchoring] Should add tail mass to bins 9-12 reflecting longer-horizon non-crossing scenarios.
| Bin | Probability |
|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 to Jun 08, 2026 (bin_0) | 13.0% |
| Jun 08, 2026 to Jun 18, 2026 (bin_1) | 27.0% |
| Jun 18, 2026 to Jun 27, 2026 (bin_2) | 22.0% |
| Jun 27, 2026 to Jul 06, 2026 (bin_3) | 13.0% |
| Jul 06, 2026 to Jul 15, 2026 (bin_4) | 7.0% |
| Jul 15, 2026 to Jul 25, 2026 (bin_5) | 4.5% |
| Jul 25, 2026 to Aug 03, 2026 (bin_6) | 2.8% |
| Aug 03, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026 (bin_7) | 1.7% |
| Aug 12, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026 (bin_8) | 9.0% |
| Oct 25, 2026 to Jan 07, 2027 (bin_9) | 0.0% |
| Jan 07, 2027 to Mar 21, 2027 (bin_10) | 0.0% |
| Mar 21, 2027 to Jun 03, 2027 (bin_11) | 0.0% |
| After Jun 03, 2027 (bin_12) | 0.0% |
wooley_rhino • run 44210d24 • $3.4 • 8m21s
Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1780531200.0, 1.0: 1780531200.0, 5.0: 1780531200.0, 10.0: 1781136000.0, 15.0: 1781136000.0, 20.0: 1781136000.0, 25.0: 1781740800.0, 30.0: 1781740800.0, 35.0: 1781740800.0, 40.0: 1782345600.0, 45.0: 1782345600.0, 46.0: 1782345600.0, 47.0: 1782345600.0, 48.0: 1782345600.0, 49.0: 1782345600.0, 50.0: 1782345600.0, 51.0: 1782345600.0, 52.0: 1782950400.0, 53.0: 1782950400.0, 54.0: 1782950400.0, 55.0: 1782950400.0, 60.0: 1783555200.0, 65.0: 1784160000.0, 70.0: 1785369600.0, 75.0: 1786536001.0, 80.0: 1786536001.0, 85.0: 1786536001.0, 90.0: 1786536001.0, 95.0: 1786536001.0, 99.0: 1786536001.0, 99.9: 1786536001.0}
Model’s Answer: The most important evidence here is the official Drewry reading for 2026-05-28: the WCI composite was $2,800 per 40-foot container, up 3% week over week, after several consecutive weekly gains, and Drewry itself reportedly expects rates to rise further in coming weeks as seasonal demand strengthens through June. That is the highest-weight source because it is the exact index, the exact threshold context, and very recent. The corroborating trade-press summaries add confidence that the move is real rather than a one-off reporting artifact. I give less weight to broader early-2026 outlooks about overcapacity, but they still matter as a structural brake and are the main reason I do not push this to near-certainty.
Step one is anchoring on distance to threshold. From $2,800, the index needs a bit more than a 10.7% rise to get strictly above $3,100. In container shipping, that is meaningful but not large, especially during an upswing. If the recent sequence of weekly increases continues for even two to four more assessments, the threshold could be crossed by mid-to-late June.
Step two is to remember the question is about the first assessment date, not whether the index ever gets “close.” Because Drewry assessments are typically weekly on Thursdays, the practical candidate dates are 2026-06-04, 2026-06-11, 2026-06-18, 2026-06-25, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-09, 2026-07-16, 2026-07-23, 2026-07-30, and 2026-08-06. That discrete schedule concentrates probability on a few dates rather than spreading it smoothly.
Step three is balancing trend continuation against mean reversion. The bullish case is straightforward: current momentum, early peak-season demand, route-specific rate strength, and carrier attempts to hold GRIs and surcharges push the composite over $3,100 in June. The bearish case is also straightforward: overcapacity, weak ability to sustain price hikes, or a fade after front-loaded June shipments keep the composite below threshold through the deadline. Because this is a short horizon, I give substantial weight to the default “no crossing by resolution” outcome rather than assuming trend extrapolation.
The assumptions that matter most are these. First, I am assuming the late-May upswing is genuine and sticky enough to persist at least a few more weeks; I think there is about a 35% chance that assumption fails, which is the biggest source of mass on the post-deadline outcome. Second, I am assuming the assessment cadence remains the usual weekly Thursday pattern; I put roughly a 10% chance on some schedule irregularity, but that only modestly changes the forecast because most probability is well before the final week. Third, I am assuming no near-threshold revision within the seven-day correction window flips an apparent crossing back under $3,100; I assign about a 5% chance that this matters, so I avoid putting too much mass on any single borderline date.
An earlier outcome could happen if carriers’ June increases stick unusually well or if a disruption creates a sharp one-week jump; I put about a 21% chance on crossing as early as 2026-06-11 or sooner. A later outcome could happen if the recent rally stalls and the market stays capped below $3,100 despite peak-season effects; I put about a 28.5% chance on no qualifying assessment by the deadline, with additional modest probability on late-July and early-August crossings.
My central view is that the threshold is more likely than not to be exceeded before the cutoff, with the highest-density window in mid-to-late June, but uncertainty remains large enough that the post-deadline outcome still deserves a big block of probability.
Percentile .1: 2026-06-04 Percentile 1: 2026-06-04 Percentile 5: 2026-06-04 Percentile 10: 2026-06-11 Percentile 15: 2026-06-11 Percentile 20: 2026-06-11 Percentile 25: 2026-06-18 Percentile 30: 2026-06-18 Percentile 35: 2026-06-18 Percentile 40: 2026-06-25 Percentile 45: 2026-06-25 Percentile 46: 2026-06-25 Percentile 47: 2026-06-25 Percentile 48: 2026-06-25 Percentile 49: 2026-06-25 Percentile 50: 2026-06-25 Percentile 51: 2026-06-25 Percentile 52: 2026-07-02 Percentile 53: 2026-07-02 Percentile 54: 2026-07-02 Percentile 55: 2026-07-02 Percentile 60: 2026-07-09 Percentile 65: 2026-07-16 Percentile 70: 2026-07-30 Percentile 75: 2026-08-12T12:00:01Z Percentile 80: 2026-08-12T12:00:01Z Percentile 85: 2026-08-12T12:00:01Z Percentile 90: 2026-08-12T12:00:01Z Percentile 95: 2026-08-12T12:00:01Z Percentile 99: 2026-08-12T12:00:01Z Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-12T12:00:01Z
The index is a weekly, volume-weighted composite of eight East–West agreed-rate routes and only moves when sufficient agreed business is reported.
Scheduled vessel deliveries and structural overcapacity limit upside absent sustained demand or enforced capacity discipline.
A rapid four‑week rebound in late May narrowed the gap to the $3,100 threshold and concentrated risk into early June.
Carrier GRIs, PSS announcements, and parallel benchmark indices shifted materially higher in late May, applying upward pressure to agreed rates.
The decisive pivot is whether announced surcharges and FAK increases are actually paid and reflected in bookings before a Thursday assessment.
Timing is critical: surcharges effective in early June can create a one‑week crossing if pass‑through is meaningful; otherwise the exposure transfers to subsequent Thursdays.
Primary uncertainties are the pass‑through rate of announced increases, the durability of demand versus one‑off spikes, and potential operational or geopolitical disruptions.
Outcome sensitivity is high to carrier commercial discipline, bunker price moves, and sudden macro or regional shocks that can flip the index within a single assessment.
Forecast: 2026-06-11 (median)
On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container?
Key figures
Historical context
The global container shipping market has historically shown extreme sensitivity to geopolitical shocks. During the 2021–2022 supply chain crisis, rates reached unprecedented levels due to port congestion and pandemic-driven demand. In early 2024, the initial Red Sea crisis caused the WCI to spike to roughly $5,000. The 2026 environment mirrors these patterns, but with the added complexity of the Strait of Hormuz closure in March 2026. Prior to the 2026 conflict, the WCI had normalized to a ‘pre-crisis’ range of $1,800–$2,200. The current climb from $2,216 in late April to $2,800 in late May represents a rapid 26% increase over just four weeks, signaling a return to high-volatility regime behavior common during major maritime disruptions.
Tailwinds
Headwinds
Detailed reasoning
My analysis indicates that Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) will likely exceed $3,100 in the very first assessment following the current reporting period. As of May 28, 2026, the WCI composite stood at $2,800. This leaves a gap of only $300, or approximately 10.7%. In the context of the current maritime environment, this is a relatively small margin that can be bridged in a single week of volatility.
The primary driver for this immediate forecast is the massive surge in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which acts as a reliable leading indicator for the WCI. On May 29, 2026—just one day after the last WCI report—the SCFI jumped by 15.94%. This single-week increase is significantly higher than the 10.7% gain required for the WCI to hit the target. Historically, the WCI tracks these movements with a high degree of correlation.
Furthermore, June 1, 2026, serves as a critical inflection point for global shipping rates. Major carriers including CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, and Ocean Network Express (ONE) have announced substantial General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS). For example, ONE implemented a $2,000 PSS for eastbound trans-Pacific cargo on that date. These surcharges are specifically designed to capture early peak-season demand and recover the massive fuel costs associated with rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope. Since these increases take effect just days before the June 4th assessment, they are expected to be reflected in the freight forwarder data Drewry collects.
Operational capacity is also severely constrained. The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has forced over 34,000 vessel routes to divert, resulting in an estimated industry-wide capacity loss of 15–20%. Port congestion is spreading from the Middle East to major hubs in Singapore and India, further tightening the available supply of container slots. Shippers are currently in a ‘space scramble’ to move goods before new US tariffs take effect in late July, creating an artificial demand spike that empowers carriers to maintain aggressive pricing.
While there is a minor possibility that the June 4th assessment might fall just short if some surcharges lag in reporting, the June 11th assessment would almost certainly capture the full weight of the June 1st price hikes. Given the 15.9% jump in the SCFI and the $2,000 surcharges entering the market, the $3,100 threshold is likely to be breached immediately.
Key uncertainties
Conclusion