Scenario wins: smingers-bot (76) Mantic (27) cassi (24) lewinke-thinking-bot* (20) pgodzinbot (19) AtlasForecasting-bot (17)
| Figure/Metric | Value | Source | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficient Giving Grant | $8,500,000 USD | Epoch AI Transparency Page | Largest single funding source in 2025. |
| Total Identified 2025 Funding | ~$9,855,000 USD | Combined Transparency Data | Basis for cash-on-hand estimates. |
| GBP/USD Exchange Rate (Avg 2025) | ~0.78 | Historical Forex Data | Used to convert USD grants to GBP reporting currency. |
| Filing Deadline | 10 July 2026 | Companies House | The legal deadline for the first accounts. |
| Resolution Deadline | 12 August 2026 | Question Criteria | Date by which accounts must be public to avoid £0 resolution. |
EPOCH AI originally operated as a project under Rethink Priorities, a research organization associated with the effective altruism movement. Its transition to an independent UK legal entity (EPOCH AI LTD, incorporated October 2024) marks a formalization of its operations. Historically, research nonprofits in the AI safety and policy space, such as the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) or METR, have seen rapid budget scaling following large grants from philanthropic entities like Open Philanthropy. The filing of ‘first accounts’ at Companies House often reveals the initial ‘seed’ capitalization of such spin-offs. In the UK, the first accounting period often lasts longer than 12 months (up to 18 months), which is why this period extends from October 2024 to December 2025. This long first period typically results in higher reported assets and expenditures than a standard 12-month cycle.
My analysis of EPOCH AI LTD’s projected current assets is primarily driven by the organization’s public transparency disclosures regarding funding and its operational structure as a UK-incorporated entity. The company was incorporated on October 10, 2024, and its first accounting period was extended to end on December 31, 2025. This 14-month period covers the bulk of its initial scaling and major fundraising.
The core of the financial estimate stems from reported 2025 donations and grants. The most significant inflow was a $8,500,000 USD grant from Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) in April 2025. Additional contributions from individual donors including Jaan Tallinn ($600,000), Likith Govindaiah ($400,000), and Leopold Aschenbrenner ($200,000) bring total identified funding to approximately $9.855 million USD. When converted to GBP using historical 2025 exchange rates (averaging roughly 0.78 GBP/USD), this represents approximately £7.7 million in gross receipts.
Beyond grants, EPOCH AI reported multiple paid engagements in 2025 with high-profile AI labs and government bodies, including OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. These contracts likely contributed additional revenue, though they also involve delivery costs.
To arrive at the ‘Current Assets’ figure, I subtracted estimated operating expenses from these total inflows. As a research-focused nonprofit, the primary costs are personnel (estimated at 15-25 staff/contractors during the period), compute resources, and administrative overhead. I estimate a 14-month burn rate of between £1.5M and £3.0M. This leaves a residual cash balance—the primary component of current assets—centered in the £4.5M to £6.5M range.
The forecast incorporates a small probability of a £0 outcome (roughly 5-10%). This accounts for specific resolution criteria: if the company fails to file its accounts by the August 12, 2026 deadline, or if it files as a dormant company or micro-entity without disclosing a ‘Current Assets’ line item, the value resolves to zero. However, given the company’s active status and high-profile donor base, a standard filing is the more likely scenario. The distribution is slightly skewed to the upside to account for the possibility of unspent restricted grants that must be held as cash on the balance sheet until the associated research is performed.
Question: what will Companies House show for EPOCH AI LTD’s “current assets” by the 12 Aug 2026 resolution date? All teams agree the key uncertainty is entity allocation — Epoch’s public/donation/legal pages point to a US 501(c)(3) (Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc.) while EPOCH AI LTD is a UK company limited by guarantee that may be only an administrative/local subsidiary or, less likely, the treasury/operating vehicle. Forecasters put meaningful mass on non‑filing / dormant / near‑zero outcomes (if no accounts are available by the 12 Aug market cutoff the result is £0), but if accounts are filed they expect the balance sheet to be dominated by cash and debtors and for current assets to plausibly be in the tens/hundreds of thousands (analogue UK nonprofits) with a smaller chance of £1–5m if the UK company held material grants or treasury balances. Organization‑level evidence (Epoch’s 2025 report of ~$10.3M raised and ~$5M spent) makes multi‑million liquidity plausible somewhere in the group but does not reliably attribute that liquidity to the UK entity, so >£10M is considered possible but very unlikely. Recommended monitoring: watch Companies House filings through late June–12 Aug 2026 and, if accounts appear, inspect the “current assets” line or sum cash/debtors and search for intercompany/grant allocation notes.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
Key drivers are (1) whether the 31 Dec 2025 accounts are actually filed and publicly available by 12 Aug 2026 (otherwise resolves to £0), and (2) whether this UK company is an operational cash-holder versus a relatively thin UK vehicle while most reserves sit in a different (likely US) entity.
Across the analysts, the central tendency for an active UK operating entity is mid–six-figure “current assets” (mostly cash at bank, possibly some intercompany debtors), with a meaningful upper tail into the low millions if cash is parked in the UK entity near year-end. The main disagreement is the probability of a zero outcome (non-filing by the resolution date and/or dormant/near-dormant or zero-cash accounts). I think Forecaster 4 overweights dormancy, but Forecasters 1–2 likely underweight the explicit “no accounts by 12 Aug 2026 ⇒ £0” clause given the short gap between the statutory due date (10 Jul 2026) and the resolution date.
I therefore model a material but not dominant below-£1,000 probability mass (around the mid-teens), and conditional on filing/nonzero, a median in the low-to-mid £200k range with a long right tail to a few million.
An amateur forecast is likely to (a) ignore the special resolution rule that yields £0 if the accounts aren’t available by 12 Aug 2026, or (b) anchor on headline multi-million funding of the broader Epoch AI org and place the UK company’s current assets in the millions with too little probability on modest working-capital outcomes. My forecast explicitly incorporates a non-trivial probability of a £0 outcome and treats the UK entity as most likely holding working capital (mid six figures) while retaining a realistic but smaller tail risk of multi-million balances. Confidence is moderate because the key latent variable—where the group parks cash at 31 Dec 2025—is not directly observable pre-filing.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning is that EPOCH AI LTD is likely to be a small, research-oriented and grant-funded entity, so its first balance sheet would probably show current assets dominated by cash, with some debtors and prepayments rather than inventory or other operating assets.
The collective view is that the most likely reported current assets are positive but highly uncertain, with a central tendency somewhere from a few hundred thousand pounds to a few million pounds. A reasonable synthesis is that the company will probably report modest-to-moderate cash reserves, but the distribution is wide because of the real possibility of non-filing (£0) and a smaller chance of much larger balances if substantial funding is held at year-end.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning is that EPOCH AI LTD is likely to report some positive current assets, but the amount is highly uncertain because it is unclear how much of Epoch AI’s funding sits in the UK entity versus elsewhere.
The collective view is that EPOCH AI LTD will probably report positive current assets, likely in the hundreds of thousands to low millions of pounds, but with a substantial chance of zero and a long right tail into the multi-millions if it is the primary funding vehicle.
— Iteration 3 — Overall, the forecasts converge on a low single-digit million pounds outcome for current assets, with very wide uncertainty around that center.
The shared view is that Epoch AI LTD’s first Companies House accounts will most likely show material but not extreme current assets, driven by grant-funded cash balances and/or receivables, with significant downside risk to near-zero if the UK entity is small or inactive.
Corporate Structure and Funding Dynamics A central consensus across the rationales is that Epoch AI’s primary financial and operational hub is its US-based 501(c)(3) parent entity. The US parent receives and holds the vast majority of the organization’s global philanthropic funding. In contrast, the UK entity (EPOCH AI LTD) was established primarily as a localized subsidiary to manage UK payroll, regional administration, and local government relations. Because of this transatlantic structure, the UK balance sheet is unlikely to hold the bulk of the organization’s total capital.
Standard Working Capital Expectations Because the UK branch functions as a localized subsidiary, it is expected to operate on a standard “cost-plus” or pass-through financial model. Forecasters agree that the most likely scenario involves the UK entity retaining only a modest operational runway—typically a few months’ worth of cash and intercompany receivables (debtors)—just sufficient to cover local staffing and administrative overhead.
The High-Asset Scenario (Direct UK Grants) The primary factor that could drive current assets higher is Epoch AI’s public partnerships with UK government bodies, such as the AI Security Institute (AISI) and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT). If the UK entity directly receives substantial localized grants or government consulting contracts, unspent cash deposits or accrued income from these agreements would remain on the UK balance sheet at year-end, significantly inflating its reported current assets.
The Zero-Asset Risk (Dormancy and Late Filings) Forecasters heavily weigh the structural and administrative risks that could lead to a zero-asset resolution. This downside risk is driven by two main factors:
Question: What current assets will EPOCH AI LTD report in its first Companies House accounts? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 3: Probability distribution:
The research summarizes publicly available company registry data and public financial information about the US parent to construct plausible current-asset outcomes for EPOCH AI LTD (company no. 16010224). It notes the UK company must file first accounts made up to 31 Dec 2025 by 10 Jul 2026 and that as of Feb 19, 2026 no registrable person with significant control was declared, following cessation of three previously listed controllers on 26 Jan 2026. The US Epoch AI nonprofit (headquartered in San Francisco) reported total assets of ~$95,779 for year-end Dec 2024 and substantial philanthropic funding from several donors; the research uses that US entity’s balance-sheet scale as the closest available benchmark. It also summarizes standard accounting definitions and typical current-asset line items (cash at bank and in hand, receivables, short-term investments, and prepayments) relevant to research organizations.
Using base rates and scenario analysis, the research identifies key uncertainties (entity purpose, whether a capital injection occurred, and trading/dormant status) and outlines four plausible scenarios for reported current assets: dormant/minimal activity (£0–£10k), limited UK operations (£10k–£100k), active research operations (£100k–£500k), and well-capitalized subsidiary (£500k+). It highlights the US entity’s ~£75k–80k asset base as the most relevant quantitative benchmark, presents a medium-scenario range of roughly £50k–£200k as plausible, and notes the absence of prediction-market forecasts for EPOCH AI LTD’s accounts. Sources used in the research included Companies House company records, Epoch AI public information and financial filings, general accounting guidance, and prediction-market platforms.
Sources: https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/16010224 https://epochai.org https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/ https://www.gov.uk/annual-accounts/small-companies https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currentassets.asp https://manifold.markets https://www.metaculus.com
EPOCH AI LTD (UK Entity) EPOCH AI LTD, company number 16010224, is a UK-registered company that must file its first annual accounts made up to December 31, 2025, by July 10, 2026 [11]. As of February 19, 2026, the company declared no registrable person with significant control. Previously, three individuals—Simon Jarvis, David Paul Owen, and Thomas Davidson—held 25-50% voting rights but all ceased control on January 26, 2026 [11]. Their correspondence address was at Arquen House, 4-6 Spicer Street, St. Albans, England.
Parent/Related Organization: Epoch AI Epoch AI is a prominent US-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization founded in 2022, headquartered in San Francisco, with 11-50 employees [12][16]. The organization investigates AI development trends, maintains public databases on AI models and compute, and conducts research for leading AI labs and governments [12][13][14].
US Entity Financials (Reference Point) For the fiscal year ending December 2024, the US Epoch AI entity reported [15]:
Funding Sources Epoch AI receives substantial philanthropic support [13]:
The organization also invests part of its funds in semiconductor and AI stocks, with investment gains reinvested into research [13].
Current assets are defined as assets expected to be consumed, realized, or expended within 12 months [22]. For research organizations, typical current assets include [17][21][22]:
Historical Frequencies:
Nonprofit Research Organizations: The US Epoch AI entity had total assets of ~$95,779 (~£75,000-80,000) as of December 2024 [15]. For nonprofits, current assets typically represent a significant portion of total assets due to the nature of operations (cash, receivables, short-term investments).
UK Company Size Classifications [18]:
Critical Unknowns:
Possible Scenarios:
Dormant/Minimal Activity (£0 - £10,000): If the company was incorporated but not actively trading, current assets would be minimal—potentially just a bank account with statutory minimum funds or £0 if dormant accounts are filed.
Limited UK Operations (£10,000 - £100,000): If operating as a small UK presence for administrative or liaison purposes, current assets might include modest working capital, some receivables, and prepaid expenses.
Active Research Operations (£100,000 - £500,000): If functioning as a substantive UK research operation with staff and projects, current assets would include operating cash, accounts receivable from consulting work, prepaid expenses, and possibly short-term investments.
Well-Capitalized Subsidiary (£500,000+): If the UK entity received significant capital injection to support major operations or investments, current assets could exceed £500,000, potentially including substantial investment holdings (given Epoch AI’s investment strategy [13]).
No active prediction markets identified: My search found no existing prediction markets on Manifold, Metaculus, or other platforms specifically forecasting EPOCH AI LTD’s current assets [search conducted May 22, 2026].
Most Relevant Reference Class: The US Epoch AI entity’s total assets of $95,779 (~£75,000-80,000) as of December 2024 [15] provides the closest comparable. However, this represents an entire nonprofit’s asset base, and the UK subsidiary’s current assets could vary significantly depending on:
Range Estimate: Based on available evidence, plausible ranges are:
The medium scenario appears most probable given Epoch AI’s financial profile, though the January 2026 control change [11] and lack of transparency about the UK entity’s purpose create substantial forecasting uncertainty.
I accept the critic’s main correction: my previous distribution still allowed too much “Epoch AI global organization” to bleed into “EPOCH AI LTD’s UK balance sheet.” The strongest downward evidence is that the donor-facing legal disclosure names Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc. in San Francisco, and says every.org donations are re-granted to Epoch AI, not to the UK Ltd. That makes it unlikely that EPOCH AI LTD held the main 2025 donor cash pile. (epoch.ai)
Companies House still supports uncertainty rather than resolution: EPOCH AI LTD is active, limited by guarantee without share capital, incorporated on 10 October 2024, and its first accounts to 31 December 2025 are due 10 July 2026. Its filing history through early March 2026 is governance/PSC/officer/registered-office filings, with no accounts yet shown. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
I also agree that the January 2026 PSC change is weak balance-sheet evidence. The neat interpretation is simply that adding Jaime Sevilla or changing member voting rights moved the company below the UK “more than 25%” PSC thresholds. That explains “no registrable PSC” without implying a large transfer of assets.
I still do not collapse the forecast to mostly £0. The company has real Epoch-linked governance rather than looking like a pure throwaway incorporation, and Epoch’s 2025 activity was substantial: it reported $10.3m raised, $5m spent, 21 full-time staff, and 13 commissioned projects/consultations. It also reported paid engagements with major AI labs, investors, UK/EU bodies, ARIA, EPRI, and others. If the UK Ltd was used for payroll, consulting, reimbursements, or UK-facing contracts, current assets could naturally show up as cash, debtors, or prepayments. (epoch.ai)
The new insight I’m putting more weight on is that “current assets” is gross of liabilities. A small operating/payroll wrapper could have modest cash but also a year-end intercompany debtor or client receivable. That preserves a fat right tail. But the US 501(c)(3)/donation-page evidence makes the multi-million case less central than before.
So I’m lowering the center again: roughly one-fifth probability on £0, a median in the mid-five figures, and a still-material but thinner million-pound tail. I now think the critic’s £60k median is close; I’ll use £65k as a compromise because I still see meaningful odds of a working-capital or receivables balance.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 0.01
Percentile 1: 0.04
Percentile 5: 0.12
Percentile 10: 0.25
Percentile 20: 0.49
Percentile 30: 5,000
Percentile 40: 23,000
Percentile 50: 65,000
Percentile 60: 135,000
Percentile 70: 285,000
Percentile 80: 575,000
Percentile 90: 1,300,000
Percentile 95: 2,750,000
Percentile 99: 7,200,000
Percentile 99.9: 15,000,000
Conditioning on normal resolution / not annulled.
I accept the critic’s main correction: I was still letting “Epoch AI is large and active” leak too much into “EPOCH AI LTD must have six-figure current assets.” Companies House confirms the UK entity is active, limited by guarantee, incorporated 10 October 2024, and has first accounts to 31 December 2025 due 10 July 2026, but the visible filing history is still only governance/admin filings, not evidence of trading or assets. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
The strongest update against a high central estimate is entity allocation. Epoch’s public donation page and consulting terms identify Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc. as the U.S. 501(c)(3)-style legal/charity entity, not EPOCH AI LTD, and the consulting terms explicitly frame Epoch AI as the U.S. nonprofit contracting party. (epoch.ai) That makes it less likely that UK LTD held main donations, consulting receivables, or treasury assets at 31 December 2025.
That said, I still do not want to forecast this as mostly a dormant shell. Epoch overall was very active in 2025: it reported $10.3m raised, $5m spent, 21 full-time staff, and 13 commissioned research projects/consultations. (epoch.ai) The UK company also existed throughout the key 2025 period, and a UK limited-by-guarantee entity with UK/EU-linked personnel remains a plausible payroll, contracting, or recharge vehicle. So I keep the median well above zero, but lower it.
My revised mixture:
So I move closer to the critic: median from £110k to £85k, a fatter low tail, and a slightly less aggressive million-pound tail than my previous forecast.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 0.04
Percentile 1: 0.14
Percentile 5: 0.34
Percentile 10: 0.49
Percentile 20: 6000
Percentile 30: 18000
Percentile 40: 45000
Percentile 50: 85000
Percentile 60: 145000
Percentile 70: 260000
Percentile 80: 475000
Percentile 90: 900000
Percentile 95: 1750000
Percentile 99: 5000000
Percentile 99.9: 10000000
Conditional on normal resolution / non-annulment, I agree with the critic’s main direction: I should separate “Epoch AI the global/public-facing nonprofit” more sharply from “EPOCH AI LTD the UK legal entity.” I am moving the distribution down, especially above £1m.
The key public facts still stand: EPOCH AI LTD is active, incorporated on 10 October 2024, a private company limited by guarantee without share capital, with first accounts made up to 31 December 2025 due 10 July 2026; the Companies House filing history I checked still does not show first accounts filed. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk) Companies House also shows the post-year-end change the critic emphasized: Jaime Sevilla was appointed on 26 January 2026, and the three prior PSCs ceased on that same date, with the company later stating that there is no registrable PSC. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
Valid criticism I’m incorporating: the public donation, privacy, and transparency materials point strongly to Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc. / a US 501(c)(3), not to the UK Ltd, as the public-facing charitable and data-controller entity. The donation page names Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc. at a San Francisco address, the transparency page says Epoch is a 501(c)(3), and the privacy notice is for Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc. (epoch.ai) This makes the organization-wide $10.3m raised / $5m spent / 21 full-time staff much weaker evidence for UK current assets than I initially treated it. (epoch.ai)
What I still defend: I do not think £0 or dormant is the modal outcome. The UK Ltd’s directors are not just generic formation agents: Companies House lists David Owen, Tom/Thomas Davidson, Simon Jarvis, and later Jaime Sevilla; Epoch’s team page lists David Owen as a senior researcher, Tom Davidson as a board director, and Jaime Sevilla as executive director/board member. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk) That makes it plausible the UK company was meant for real governance, employment, contracting, or reimbursement activity, not merely a never-used shell. So I keep a meaningful mass in the £50k–£500k range.
New synthesis: the most predictive model is not “what is Epoch’s total budget?” but “what balance happened to sit in a UK affiliate at 31 Dec 2025?” My scenario weights are roughly:
So I am revising from a £200k median to about £120k, increasing the zero/near-zero mass, and cutting the multimillion right tail. I still leave some tail risk because a single grant, prepayment, or unpaid intercompany recharge could easily create a high six-figure or low seven-figure current-asset line.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 0.01
Percentile 1: 0.09
Percentile 5: 0.39
Percentile 10: 0.49
Percentile 20: 8,000
Percentile 30: 28,000
Percentile 40: 65,000
Percentile 50: 120,000
Percentile 60: 215,000
Percentile 70: 390,000
Percentile 80: 680,000
Percentile 90: 1,200,000
Percentile 95: 2,300,000
Percentile 99: 5,200,000
Percentile 99.9: 9,000,000
Agent Forecast (numeric, confidence: low)
Base Rate: UK subsidiaries of US AI research nonprofits (e.g., Apollo Research AI Ltd as a reference proxy) in their first-year accounts typically file as micro-entities with total balance sheets and current assets predominantly comprising cash and short-term debtors in the £50K-£300K range, which is consistent with the reconciled distribution’s central mass.
Initial Reasoning:
EPOCH AI LTD is the UK entity of Epoch AI (US nonprofit).
Key Uncertainties:
Evidence Sources (10):
Grounding Facts (passed to reviewers):
Draft: 100000-500000: 22.0%, 2000000-10000000: 20.4%, Below 1000: 19.8%, 25000-100000: 15.3%, 500000-2000000: 11.2%
Reviewer Panel:
Reviewer (reasoning)
Reviewer (calibration)
The draft forecast suffers from a fundamental disagreement across trajectories regarding the role and financial structure of EPOCH AI LTD (UK) relative to its US-based parent. Trajectory 3’s assumption that the UK entity holds the majority of the organization’s global cash surplus, including large grants, is highly questionable and contradicts the typical structure of a US non-profit with a UK subsidiary. This leads to an overestimation of current assets in the aggregated forecast.
Objections:
Reviewer (fact-checker)
1 factual error(s). 7 unsupported claim(s). Verdict: minor_issues
Unsupported claims:
Objections:
Adjustment Rationale:
Shifted probability mass substantially away from the high bins (2M-10M, Above 10M) toward the 25K-500K central bins after follow-up research confirmed the calibration reviewer’s objection. Epoch AI’s own 2025 impact report explicitly states it ‘spun out from its fiscal sponsor and began operating as an independent 501(c)(3) non-profit organization’ in early 2025, and the consulting terms identify ‘Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc.’ as the US 501(c)(3) entity. This means the $8.5M Coefficient Giving grant (April 2025) and most other major grants flowed to the US entity, not EPOCH AI LTD (UK, company 16010224). The UK Ltd is most plausibly a subsidiary handling UK payroll (~3-5 of 21 total FTE) and UK-specific contracts (DSIT consultations >$30K), with current assets likely comprising cash at bank funded by intercompany transfers plus modest debtors. Trajectory 3’s central estimate of £3.5-4.5M cash at the UK entity was based on the incorrect assumption that the UK Ltd received all global funding. Combined with ~20% no-filing probability (resolves to £0), the reconciled distribution concentrates 56% probability on the 25K-500K range, retains ~14% upside above 500K (in case of large intercompany transfers or UK contract holdings), and keeps minimal weight on £2M+ scenarios that would require the UK entity to be the primary global treasury — which the evidence contradicts.
forecast_sdk | 629.4s | research $2.3109 + reviewers $0.0398 + reconcile $0.4759 = $2.8644
Extracted Percentile Values: {0.1: 0, 1.0: 0, 5.0: 5000, 10.0: 18000, 15.0: 35000, 20.0: 55000, 25.0: 80000, 30.0: 105000, 35.0: 135000, 40.0: 165000, 45.0: 200000, 46.0: 210000, 47.0: 220000, 48.0: 230000, 49.0: 245000, 50.0: 260000, 51.0: 280000, 52.0: 300000, 53.0: 320000, 54.0: 345000, 55.0: 370000, 60.0: 450000, 65.0: 550000, 70.0: 680000, 75.0: 850000, 80.0: 1100000, 85.0: 1500000, 90.0: 2200000, 95.0: 4000000, 99.0: 8500000, 99.9: 18000000}
Model’s Answer:
I need to forecast the “Current assets” figure that EPOCH AI LTD (company number 16010224) will report in its first Companies House accounts, made up to 31 December 2025.
Company Structure:
Parent Organization Scale:
Filing Risk:
Why a LOW outcome could occur (£0 - £50,000):
Why a MEDIUM outcome is likely (£50,000 - £500,000):
Why a HIGH outcome could occur (£500,000 - £5,000,000+):
Assumption 1: Accounts will be filed by 12 August 2026
Assumption 2: UK entity is secondary to US operations
Assumption 3: Limited by guarantee means modest operations
Given:
Central estimate: ~£150,000 - £300,000
The distribution should reflect:
EPOCH AI LTD is a recently established UK nonprofit subsidiary of a well-funded US research organization. The most likely scenario is that it holds modest working capital for UK operations - enough for a few months of staff salaries and expenses. Given the parent organization’s scale and the operational nature of the UK entity (director appointments, address changes), current assets likely fall in the £100,000-£400,000 range. However, substantial uncertainty exists about how much grant funding flows through the UK versus US entities. There’s also filing risk (~5%) that could result in £0 resolution.
Percentile .1: 0 Percentile 1: 0 Percentile 5: 5000 Percentile 10: 18000 Percentile 15: 35000 Percentile 20: 55000 Percentile 25: 80000 Percentile 30: 105000 Percentile 35: 135000 Percentile 40: 165000 Percentile 45: 200000 Percentile 46: 210000 Percentile 47: 220000 Percentile 48: 230000 Percentile 49: 245000 Percentile 50: 260000 Percentile 51: 280000 Percentile 52: 300000 Percentile 53: 320000 Percentile 54: 345000 Percentile 55: 370000 Percentile 60: 450000 Percentile 65: 550000 Percentile 70: 680000 Percentile 75: 850000 Percentile 80: 1100000 Percentile 85: 1500000 Percentile 90: 2200000 Percentile 95: 4000000 Percentile 99: 8500000 Percentile 99.9: 18000000
The UK company exists as a local operating and payroll vehicle constrained by its legal form and governance.
Ownership and donor routing concentrate primary funding and contracting outside the UK entity, capping its natural asset base.
Large organization-level fundraising in 2025 creates pressure for cash management and intercompany claims at year-end.
Operational obligations—payroll, recharges, prepayments, and tax items—tend to appear as receivables and other current-asset line items even when cash is low.
If material donor funds or a reserve transfer were routed through the UK entity before year-end, reported current assets would jump materially into the millions.
Absent such routing, a payroll/service affiliate typically reports current assets in the low-to-mid six figures, skewed toward debtors rather than bank cash.
The decisive unknowns are whether transfers occurred, the size and timing of intercompany receivables, and the year-end bank balance and grant recognition decisions.
Small differences in recording and settlement timing create outsized sensitivity in the reported current-asset figure.
EPOCH AI LTD’s first Companies House accounts (year ending 31 December 2025) will likely report current assets in the low-to-mid five figures, with substantial uncertainty driven by whether the UK entity is operationally active or a dormant administrative shell.
Filing risk (~20% weight): Accounts must be filed by 10 July 2026 and made available by 12 August 2026 to resolve as a number; non-filing or dormant status resolves to £0. Small new companies often file close to deadline, but the risk is material.
Entity status unclear: The company was incorporated October 2024 with a serviced office address, suggesting a minimal administrative presence. However, a governance restructuring in January 2026 (new director, PSC changes) signals potential activation. The balance sheet date (31 December 2025) falls before this restructuring, suggesting the entity may have been largely dormant during 2025.
US parent is tiny: The parent organization had only ~$96,000 in total assets at end of 2024, constraining available intercompany transfers. The $3M fundraising mentioned is a 2026 target, not confirmed 2025 receipts.
Critical unknown—contract routing: Whether UK government contracts (DSIT, ARIA) are booked through the UK entity or the US parent is unresolvable from available data and would shift current assets by 1–2 orders of magnitude. Most forecasters assume some modest UK activity, but this is speculative.
Modal scenario: Most likely outcome is a small operational entity holding modest cash and minor debtors (£30,000–£150,000 range), reflecting partial 2025 activity or intercompany transfers. A meaningful tail extends to £500,000+ if UK contracts flowed through this entity.
As of May 22, 2026, Companies House shows EPOCH AI LTD (16010224) as an active private company limited by guarantee without share capital, incorporated on October 10, 2024, with first accounts made up to December 31, 2025 due by July 10, 2026. The filing history currently shows incorporation, confirmation-statement, officer, and PSC filings, but no accounts filing yet, so this is necessarily an inference from surrounding evidence rather than a read-off from filed numbers. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
Epoch AI’s public-facing organization is clearly substantial: its 2025 impact report says it raised $10.3 million, spent $5 million, had 21 full-time staff, and completed 13 commissioned research projects and consultations in 2025. But the donation page, privacy notice, and consultation terms identify the operative entity as Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc., a US 501(c)(3), and the consultation terms are governed by California law. That makes me reluctant to map the global organization’s cash position directly onto the UK company; the UK balance sheet is more likely to represent a local operating vehicle than the whole nonprofit’s treasury. (epoch.ai)
I still think the UK entity probably had real activity in 2025. Companies House lists David Owen and Simon Jarvis as directors, David Owen appears on Epoch AI’s team page as a senior researcher, Simon Jarvis is described elsewhere as having supported Epoch AI’s operations and remaining an advisory director, and Epoch’s transparency page says the organization worked with the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology in 2024/25. The PSC changes in early 2026 also suggest active governance rather than a forgotten shell. So I do not think a purely dormant outcome is the base case, though it remains possible. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
For the distribution, I put meaningful mass on £0 because the question resolves to £0 if no relevant filing is available by August 12, 2026, and Companies House data show that late filing is common even though the overall annual-accounts filing rate is high: Companies House reported a 98.5% accounts filing rate as at March 31, 2025, but also issued 317,985 late-filing penalties in 2024/25. I aggregate non-filing risk, dormant/no-current-assets risk, and no-disclosure risk into about 16% probability at £0. Conditional on a non-zero filing, my main scenario is a modest operating balance sheet: enough for UK working capital, payroll float, and possibly some receivables, but not the full global Epoch AI cash pile. That leads me to a median around £150,000, with most mass in the roughly £50,000 to £700,000 range and a thinner upper tail into low seven figures. (gov.uk)
Companies House shows that EPOCH AI LTD, company number 16010224, is an active private company limited by guarantee, incorporated on 10 October 2024, with first accounts made up to 31 December 2025 and due by 10 July 2026. The filing history also shows real governance activity through 2025-26: Tom Davidson and David Owen were directors from incorporation, Simon Jarvis joined on 24 March 2025, Jaime Sevilla was appointed on 26 January 2026, and the PSC structure was reorganized in early 2026. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
Epoch’s own site links these people to the actual organization rather than to a generic formation service: Tom Davidson is listed on Epoch’s board, David Owen is a senior researcher, and Simon Jarvis is described elsewhere as having supported Epoch AI’s operations and remaining an advisory director. Epoch also says it has worked with the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, ARIA, and the UK AI Security Institute. My inference from that combination is that the UK company was probably a genuine operating affiliate by year-end 2025, not just an abandoned shell. (epoch.ai)
The strongest reason I do not expect a very large UK balance sheet is that Epoch’s public-facing legal and funding infrastructure appears to sit mainly with the US nonprofit, Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc. The privacy notice and consulting terms are in the name of Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc.; the donate page says contributions are deductible for US federal income tax purposes; and Epoch says it spun out in early 2025 and began operating as an independent 501(c)(3) nonprofit. Meanwhile, Epoch’s own 2025 reporting says the organization raised $10.3 million, spent $5 million, had 21 full-time staff, and completed 13 commissioned research projects and consultations in 2025. (epoch.ai)
That makes me think the UK company is more likely to have held working capital for UK/EU payroll, receivables, and cash management than to have held a large share of the group’s total reserves. So I downweight multi-million-pound outcomes. At the same time, the evidence for real UK-linked operations makes me think a dormant or near-zero filing is possible but not the base case. My central estimate is therefore a micro/small-company style balance sheet with current assets mostly in cash, plus possibly modest debtors, centered a bit above £200,000. (epoch.ai)
I encoded that view as a mixture distribution with a 12% point mass at £0 (to capture the explicit no-filing/no-disclosure path in the resolution criteria, plus some chance of a dormant-like outcome), and active-company components centered around roughly £35k, £240k, £750k, and £2.2m. This produces a median forecast of about £210k, with most of the probability mass below £1m and only a small upper tail above £2m.
Companies House lists EPOCH AI LTD (16010224) as an active private company limited by guarantee without share capital, incorporated on 10 October 2024. Its first accounts are for the period ending 31 December 2025, and the filing history so far is only incorporation, confirmation, director, address, and PSC paperwork rather than financing or charge filings. The company had Thomas Davidson and David Owen from incorporation, added Simon Jarvis in March 2025, and added Jaime Sevilla in January 2026. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
Epoch AI’s own legal pages point to a different main operating entity: the website privacy notice and consultation terms identify ‘Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc.’ with a San Francisco address, and the consultation terms use California law; the press page says Epoch AI is headquartered in San Francisco. That is strong evidence that the organization’s principal fundraising and contracting vehicle is the US nonprofit rather than the UK Ltd. (epoch.ai)
That matters because Epoch AI as an organization is not small. Its 2025 impact report says it spun out from its fiscal sponsor in early 2025, raised $10.3 million in 2025, spent $5 million, and had 21 full-time staff. Its funding and transparency page lists very large donations, including $8.5 million from Coefficient Giving in April 2025. If the UK company were the main asset-holding entity, multimillion-pound current assets would be quite plausible; but the legal pages above make that look like a tail scenario, not the base case. (epoch.ai)
My central inference is therefore that EPOCH AI LTD is probably a related UK support, employment, or governance vehicle, not the main holder of Epoch’s donor cash. The director overlap with official Epoch personnel supports that affiliation: David Owen and Jaime Sevilla appear both in the Companies House filings and on Epoch’s team pages, while the impact report lists Tom Davidson on the board of the independent nonprofit. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
I do not want to push this all the way to dormant. The UK company was kept active, had governance changes during and after 2025, and at least one third-party business directory tentatively classifies it as micro rather than dormant; I treat that last point as weak corroboration only. A rough sanity check is that if the UK vehicle covered only a minority of a 21-FTE, $5 million-spend organization, year-end current assets in the tens or low hundreds of thousands of pounds would be unsurprising via cash plus intercompany debtors, while figures above about £500,000 would more likely require substantial cash parking or a large receivable at year-end. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
So I put 17% on a £0-or-negligible outcome below £1,000, mainly from no filing by the resolution date, dormant-style accounts, or no disclosed current assets; 13% on a small positive micro-entity outcome centered around roughly £20,000; 64% on an operating-vehicle outcome centered around roughly £150,000; and 6% on a larger-cash-holder tail centered around roughly £900,000. This implies a median a little above £100,000, a mean around £220,000, about a 91% chance of being below £500,000, and about a 97% chance of being below £1 million.
As of Friday, May 22, 2026, Companies House shows EPOCH AI LTD (company 16010224) as an active private company limited by guarantee without share capital, incorporated on 10 October 2024. Its first accounts are made up to 31 December 2025 and are due by 10 July 2026. The public filing history currently shows no accounts yet; the visible filings are incorporation, accounting period extension, confirmation-statement, director, registered-office, and PSC filings. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
The company does not look like a one-day shelf entity. It has had multiple active directors, including Thomas Davidson and David Owen from incorporation, Simon Jarvis from March 2025, and Jaime Sevilla from January 2026. Its PSC history also shows real governance changes: three individual PSCs each with more than 25% but not more than 50% voting rights, followed by a February 2026 statement that there is no registrable PSC/RLE. That pattern is more consistent with an operating nonprofit-style vehicle than with a totally dormant shell, though it does not by itself tell us the balance-sheet size. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
The key sizing clue is that Epoch AI’s own official site presents the organization as a U.S. 501(c)(3) nonprofit, and its consultation terms explicitly name Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc. as the contracting entity. Epoch’s 2025 impact report says that in early 2025 it spun out from its fiscal sponsor and began operating as an independent 501(c)(3). That makes me infer that the UK company is less likely to be the primary treasury entity for the whole organization, and more likely to be a UK/Europe operating, employment, or contracting vehicle holding only part of the group’s working capital. That is only an inference, but I think it is the most important structural fact here. (epoch.ai)
Epoch AI is nevertheless a real and non-trivial organization. Its 2025 impact report says it raised $10.3 million, spent $5 million, had 21 full-time staff, and completed 13 commissioned research projects and consultations in 2025. Its team page now lists a substantially larger roster, and current job postings show salary bands of $100,000-$160,000 for researchers and $150,000-$250,000 for senior researchers, indicating a high-cost research organization rather than a hobby project. Those figures suggest that if the UK company carried even a modest slice of operations—say a few staff or a small set of contracts—then year-end current assets in the low-to-mid six figures would be plausible. (epoch.ai)
I therefore model the outcome as a mixture. First, I put meaningful probability on resolution at £0 or below £1,000 because the resolution rules explicitly award £0 if the accounts are not filed and available by 12 August 2026, and Companies House data show that late filing is not vanishingly rare: the annual accounts filing compliance rate was 98.3% as at 31 March 2024, while Companies House issued 317,985 late-filing penalties in 2024/25. I convert that into about a 10% mass below £1,000, covering both late/non-available filing risk and a smaller dormant-or-near-dormant possibility. (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk)
For positive outcomes, my central scenarios are: a 22% low-activity case centered around roughly £12k of current assets; a 50% core case centered around roughly £130k; a 15% more substantial local-operating case centered around roughly £320k; and a 3% large-tail case centered around roughly £1.2m if the UK entity happened to hold more prefunded grants, receivables, or intercompany balances than I expect. This gives a median forecast of about £110k and a mean around £180k. Put differently, I think the most likely broad region is about £50k-£300k, with a real but smaller chance of £0 and a thinner right tail into the seven figures. The biggest reason I am not going higher is the evidence that the public-facing nonprofit and contracting entity is the U.S. corporation; the biggest reason I am not going lower is that the UK company appears substantively active rather than obviously dormant. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
As of May 22, 2026, Companies House shows EPOCH AI LTD (16010224) as an active private company limited by guarantee without share capital, incorporated on October 10, 2024, with first accounts made up to December 31, 2025 due by July 10, 2026; the filing history does not yet show any accounts filing. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
The governance history does not look like a totally forgotten shell company: Simon Jarvis was appointed director on March 24, 2025, the registered office changed on April 23, 2025, Jaime Sevilla was appointed director on January 26, 2026, and the PSC register now carries an active statement that there is no registrable PSC. My inference from that pattern is that the entity likely had some real purpose and active housekeeping in 2025, which lowers but does not eliminate the chance of a dormant outcome. (find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk)
At the same time, Epoch’s own legal pages point strongly to the U.S. nonprofit as the main contracting, donation, and website entity: the donation page, privacy notice, and consultation terms all identify Epoch Artificial Intelligence, Inc., and the 2025 impact report says Epoch spun out in early 2025 as an independent 501(c)(3). That makes me reluctant to put much weight on multi-million-pound current assets sitting in the UK company. (epoch.ai)
Epoch also clearly has meaningful UK ties. Epoch’s team page lists staff including David Owen, Maria de la Lama, and Tom Adamczewski; public LinkedIn pages place those people in London/UK; Simon Jarvis is described elsewhere as having supported Epoch’s operations team; and Epoch lists the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, ARIA, and the UK AI Security Institute among 2024/25 or 2025 collaborations and consultations. My inference is that the UK company is more likely to have been a local operating/payroll or UK-facing vehicle than a purely dormant registration. (epoch.ai)
The scale of the broader organization matters. Epoch’s 2025 impact report says it raised $10.3 million, spent $5 million, and had 21 full-time staff in 2025. Combined with the U.S.-centric legal structure above, I treat that as evidence for a low-to-mid six-figure UK current-assets balance—enough for cash, intercompany receivables, or short-term operating balances—but not as evidence that the UK company held most of Epoch’s treasury. (epoch.ai)
On the filing-risk side, Companies House says late filing penalties are automatic, and its 2024/25 annual report says 98.5% of annual accounts were filed by companies as of March 31, 2025. So I leave some mass at £0 for the resolution rule (late/non-filing or dormant/no disclosed current assets), but not a dominant amount. (gov.uk)
My scenario weights are roughly 13% for £0/under £1k, 19% for a small-balance setup entity, 60% for an operating UK support entity centered around about £275k, and 8% for a larger prefunded/intercompany balance centered around about £1.2m. That yields a distribution with a median around £0.19m, a mean around £0.35m, and a long but fairly thin right tail. In plain English: I think the most likely filing is neither dormant nor huge; it is a modest operating balance sheet with current assets in the broad neighborhood of £100k-£500k.