On what date will the EIA first report Total Lower-48 working gas in underground storage at or above 3,150 Bcf?

• My median prediction for the EIA to first report Total Lower-48 working gas at or above 3,150 Bcf is 30th July 2026.
• As of the June 19, 2026 report, storage levels stood at 2,835 Bcf, which is 315 Bcf below the 3,150 Bcf threshold.
• Market consensus for the week ending June 26, 2026, anticipates an 81 Bcf injection, bringing the projected total to approximately 2,916 Bcf.
• Reaching 3,150 Bcf requires approximately 234 Bcf in cumulative injections following the June 26 report, which at recent injection rates (60-80 Bcf/week) suggests 3-4 additional weeks.
• Forecasts of above-normal temperatures through mid-July 2026 are expected to increase cooling demand, potentially slowing the rate of injection and pushing the crossing date toward the end of July.
• Historical precedents for crossing 3,150 Bcf vary from early July (2024) to October (2022), but current levels 152 Bcf above the five-year average favor a late-July resolution.

Key figures

Historical context

The U.S. natural gas market follows a strict seasonal cycle: the injection season runs from April 1 to October 31, and the withdrawal season runs from November 1 to March 31. Reaching the 3,150 Bcf mark is a key milestone indicating sufficient preparation for winter demand. Historically, the date this threshold is reached varies based on summer cooling demand and the starting inventory from the previous winter. In 2024, high starting inventories led to an early crossing on July 5. In 2025, it was reached on August 8. Earlier years saw much later crossings, such as September 24 in 2021 and October 7 in 2022, primarily due to lower production levels or more extreme summer heat. In 2026, the season began with a low of 1,818 Bcf on March 20, and current levels are tracking roughly 152 Bcf above the five-year average, suggesting a ‘normal to early’ crossing window compared to the long-term historical mean.

Tailwinds

• Record levels of U.S. dry natural gas production (forecasted at 111.0 Bcf/d for 2026) provide ample supply for storage.
• Storage injections in early June (e.g., +108 Bcf on June 5) demonstrate the capacity for rapid inventory builds if weather is mild.
• Lower-48 gas demand was reported 10.5% lower year-over-year in late June, freeing up more molecules for underground storage.
• Inventories started the season from a relatively healthy position compared to the five-year average.

Headwinds

• Forecasted above-normal temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast through mid-July will increase power burn for air conditioning.
• Rising LNG feedgas deliveries (reaching 17.3 Bcf/d in June) divert gas away from storage toward exports.
• Higher natural gas prices (Nymex July/August contracts over $3.30/mmBtu) may incentivize production but also reflect tight physical demand.
• Potential for pipeline maintenance or storage facility operational limits as levels approach late-season capacity.

Detailed reasoning

The forecast for the first EIA report of Total Lower-48 working gas at or above 3,150 Bcf is based on a quantitative analysis of current inventory levels, projected injection rates, and historical seasonal patterns. As of the report for the week ending June 19, 2026, the EIA reported storage at 2,835 Bcf. This leaves a gap of 315 Bcf to reach the 3,150 Bcf threshold. Analyst consensus for the subsequent week (ending June 26, 2026) suggests an 81 Bcf injection, which would bring the total to approximately 2,916 Bcf. This leaves a remaining 234 Bcf to be filled starting in July.

To determine the most likely date, I evaluated the current injection velocity against expected headwinds. In May and June 2026, injections were robust, ranging between 66 Bcf and 108 Bcf per week. However, meteorologists and analysts indicate that a significant heatwave is expected through mid-July 2026, with temperatures in major hubs like Dallas and Washington D.C. reaching 95°F to 100°F. This weather pattern typically increases natural gas consumption for electricity generation (cooling demand), which competes with storage injections. Consequently, I expect weekly injections to moderate from their June highs to a range of 50–70 Bcf per week during July.

Applying these rates to the 234 Bcf deficit after June 26th:

• At a high injection rate (75 Bcf/week), the threshold would be crossed in roughly 3.1 weeks (around July 17th).
• At a moderate injection rate (60 Bcf/week), the threshold would be crossed in 3.9 weeks (around July 24th).
• At a slower injection rate (50 Bcf/week), the threshold would be reached in 4.7 weeks (around July 31st).

Historical data shows that the 3,150 Bcf mark is typically reached between July and September. In 2024, it was reached as early as July 5th, while in 2025, it occurred on August 8th. Given that 2026 inventories are currently 49 Bcf below the 2025 level but significantly above the five-year average, a late-July crossing is the most statistically sound expectation. The median prediction of July 30, 2026, accounts for the Thursday release cycle of the EIA report covering the preceding Friday. The ‘week-ending’ date most likely to first report ≥3,150 Bcf is Friday, July 24, 2026, or Friday, July 31, 2026. Therefore, the report released on July 30th (for the July 24th week) or August 6th (for the July 31st week) will be the resolving event. My analysis weights the July 31st ‘as-of’ date slightly higher due to the impact of the July heatwave on power burn.

Key uncertainties

• The severity and duration of the July 2026 heatwave: prolonged 95°F+ temperatures could reduce weekly injections to below 50 Bcf.
• Potential hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, which can disrupt both production and LNG export demand.
• Fluctuations in LNG feedgas demand: any unplanned outages at export terminals would leave more gas for domestic storage.
• Potential EIA data revisions or reporting anomalies that could shift a weekly reading across the threshold earlier or later than projected.

Conclusion

• The crossing of the 3,150 Bcf threshold is highly probable during the 2026 injection season, given that current storage is 152 Bcf above the five-year average.
• Decision-makers should focus on EIA reports released in late July and early August, specifically monitoring the reports for the weeks ending July 24th and July 31st.
• Significant deviations from projected temperatures (e.g., a cooler July) would likely accelerate the crossing into mid-July.

Question: When will EIA Lower-48 working gas first reach ≥3,150 Bcf (week-ending Friday) this injection season? Latest official EIA storage is 2,835 Bcf for week ending Jun. 19, so a +315 Bcf cumulative build is required. If the Jun. 26 print comes in near market/WoodRiver expectations of +77–79 Bcf (≈2,912–2,914 Bcf), then reaching 3,150 Bcf requires roughly ~60 Bcf/week to hit Jul. 24, ~48 Bcf/week to hit Jul. 31 (the modal outcome across forecasters), and ~40 Bcf/week to hit Aug. 7; a Jul. 10 or Jul. 17 crossing would need implausibly large early builds. Forecasters agree that hotter-than-normal early-July weather, elevated LNG feedgas, and power burn are the main downside risks that could compress July injections and push the first crossing into late August/September, while strong production supports faster refill. A stylized Monte Carlo run (start 2,835; mean 75 Bcf/week, σ=12, decay) produced median Jul. 31 and p90/p95 ≈ Aug. 7, but teams caution this model likely understates heat-driven volatility and therefore underestimates the open upper-tail; historical analogues (notably 2017 and 2023) show similar late‑June starts can still cross much later. Bottom line: consensus mass on Jul. 24–31 for first crossing, substantial probability on Aug. 7, and a meaningful nonzero tail for first crossing after Aug. 8 contingent on July weather and weekly injection realization.

Forecast and Reasoning

Forecast: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-07-21 09:04:06 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-07-24 10:51:59 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-07-31 10:55:22 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-08-07 10:52:50 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-08-08 12:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-08-08 12:00:00 UTC

Forecast Reasoning

We are forecasting the first EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report data point (Total Lower-48 working gas) that is reported at or above 3,150 Bcf, resolving to the week-ending (as-of) date.

All analysts agree the latest confirmed baseline available as of 2026-07-01 is the EIA week ending 2026-06-19 at 2,835 Bcf, implying a remaining gap of 315 Bcf to reach 3,150. Recent weekly injections in late May/June 2026 were strong (roughly +70 to +108 Bcf/week in the analysts’ summaries), but a seasonal slowdown in net injections is common through July/August due to higher cooling-driven power burn.

A simple cumulative arithmetic check suggests: with ~60–80 Bcf/week sustained, the threshold is reached in ~4–6 weeks from 2026-06-19, placing the most likely first ≥3,150 print in the late-July to early-August as-of dates. I center the median on the week ending 2026-07-31, with substantial mass on 2026-07-24 and 2026-08-07, and a meaningful (but not dominant) open-after tail where hot-weather/strong demand suppresses injections enough that the first ≥3,150 print isn’t until the week ending 2026-08-14 or later (i.e., after the 2026-08-08 upper bound).

I discount reliance on non-EIA “snippet” forward values (they are not part of the resolution source and may be forecasts rather than reported EIA data), and I correct for some analysts’ bound-anchoring (placing mass at 2026-08-08 rather than explicitly into the open-after bin). Overall, I express ~10–20% probability that the first qualifying as-of date is after 2026-08-08.

An amateur forecast commonly (a) extrapolates the most recent weekly injection linearly, (b) ignores discrete weekly-as-of timing, and/or (c) anchors probability inside the platform’s bounds instead of expressing an open-after tail. This forecast improves by (1) using the verified baseline and required cumulative build (+315 Bcf), (2) incorporating the seasonal tendency for injections to slow in July/August, and (3) explicitly assigning probability to outcomes after 2026-08-08 via percentiles placed strictly past the upper bound. Confidence is moderate because the dominant uncertainty is July/August weather-driven demand, which can materially shift weekly injections.

Forecast rationale (numeric):

— Iteration 1 — The forecasts are anchored on the same starting point: Lower-48 working gas was about 2,835 Bcf on June 19, 2026, so reaching 3,150 Bcf requires roughly 315 Bcf of additional injections. The main reasoning pattern is a simple supply/demand accumulation model: under typical summer injection rates of roughly 40–55 Bcf per week, that gap is most likely closed in late July to early August.

Areas of strongest agreement

• Most likely crossing date: August 7, 2026
• Nearby plausible dates: July 31 and August 14
• The forecasts consistently treat the EIA’s Friday week-ending storage dates as the valid resolution dates, and they focus on the first initial report at or above 3,150 Bcf.

Core reasoning behind the date

• The threshold is about 6–7 weeks away from the June 19 baseline at normal summer injection rates.
• A central estimate around 45–50 Bcf/week lands the crossing around early August.
• The distribution is “step-like” because the outcome can only resolve on weekly Friday dates, so probability accumulates on a few discrete report dates rather than across a continuum.

Main factors pushing the date earlier

• Milder July weather reducing power burn from air conditioning
• Higher-than-expected production
• Lower LNG export activity or outages
• Strong renewable generation reducing gas-fired generation demand

Main factors pushing the date later

• Prolonged heat waves increasing cooling demand and suppressing injections
• Production disruptions such as maintenance, freeze-offs, or hurricanes
• Higher LNG exports
• Lower wind output, increasing gas burn in power markets

Overall uncertainty pattern

The main uncertainty is summer weather, with secondary uncertainty from production, LNG flows, and renewable generation. The forecasts agree that late July through mid-August is the most plausible window, with August 7 the central estimate and a meaningful tail into later August if injections are restrained by hot weather or tighter supply conditions.

— Iteration 2 — The forecasts largely follow the same framework: start from the latest reported Lower-48 storage level of 2,835 Bcf and estimate how many weekly injections are needed to add the remaining 315 Bcf to reach 3,150 Bcf. The main driver is the expected pace of summer injections, with historical July–August build rates used as the baseline and then adjusted for current market conditions.

Key factors shaping the timing:

• Typical summer injection rates: Most reasoning uses historical seasonal norms to infer how quickly storage can rise through July and early August.
• Recent storage momentum: A strong recent weekly injection supports the idea that the threshold could be reached sooner, while more moderate expectations push the date later.
• Weather and demand: Hot weather is treated as the main risk to faster injections, since stronger cooling demand would slow storage growth.
• Market tightness / prices: Higher prices are interpreted as a sign of tighter supply-demand conditions, which can also imply slower injections.
• Weekly reporting cadence: Because the EIA reports once per week, the crossing date is treated as a Friday “step” rather than a continuous daily event.

Areas of consensus:

• The threshold should be reached in late July or early August.
• The date is sensitive to whether injections remain strong enough to outpace summer demand.

Main disagreement:

• One view leans toward late July, especially July 24 or July 31, if injections remain robust.
• Another places the most likely crossing on August 7, assuming a more typical or slightly slower summer build pace.
• All scenarios treat much later dates as possible but low-probability tail outcomes.

Overall, the shared logic is a straightforward extrapolation from current storage plus expected summer injections, with weather-driven demand and market tightness determining whether the first report at or above 3,150 Bcf arrives in late July or slips into early August.

To forecast when Lower-48 working gas will reach the 3,150 Bcf threshold, the rationales balance current inventory levels against the competing forces of summer natural gas supply and demand.

Current Baseline and Required Injections All rationales identify a starting inventory of 2,835 Bcf (as of mid-June 2026), leaving a 315 Bcf gap to reach the target. After factoring in robust late-June injections, the market must build roughly 240 Bcf over the core summer months. To achieve this, weekly injections must average in the 35 to 50 Bcf range.

Supply Tailwinds Record-high domestic dry natural gas production, driven heavily by associated gas from the Permian Basin, acts as the primary tailwind. This massive baseline of supply ensures that storage injections will continue despite heavy summer consumption.

Demand Headwinds Conversely, summer injection rates will be significantly suppressed by intense heat domes and elevated cooling degree days (CDDs), which drive massive power burn for air conditioning. Furthermore, strong LNG export demand, structural coal-to-gas switching, and regional pipeline bottlenecks will divert available gas away from storage caverns.

Projected Timeline The tension between record domestic production and extreme summer demand indicates that weekly injection rates will likely align with or slightly lag behind historical mid-summer averages. As a result, the rationales collectively project that the 3,150 Bcf threshold will most likely be crossed between late July and mid-August.

Frontier Forecast — Post 575

Modal: Aug 08, 2026 to Sep 07, 2026 (23.8%) • frontier aggregate • 3m48s

Interpret Summary

• Reading: strict
• Type: strict
• Window: EIA weekly reports released on or before 2026-08-13, with week-ending (as-of) dates on or before 2026-08-08

Resolution sources/checks:

• https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html - Resolver URL extracted mechanically from resolution criteria

Edge cases:

• If EIA revises a prior week’s figure upward past 3,150 Bcf in a later release, that revision does NOT trigger resolution — only the initially reported figure for each week matters.
• The resolver uses the Friday week-ending date, not the Thursday publication date — forecasters must be careful not to conflate the two dates (they differ by 6 days).
• If the EIA report is delayed (e.g., due to a federal holiday) so that a report covering a week-ending date on or before 2026-08-08 is released after 2026-08-13, it is unclear whether that data point would still count — the criteria name a…

Temporal Support

• Policy

  • first_passage_scheduled

• Status

  • schedule_discovery_required

• Warnings

  • Derived 1 candidate date(s) from structured source-calendar cadence.; Release-schedule discovery required: do not spread date mass over all calendar days without checking when the resolver source can publish/update.

Frontier Views (5/5)

• frontier_1 - Modal: Jul 25, 2026 to Aug 01, 2026 (37.0%)

  • As of the latest available EIA figures in mid-to-late June 2026, Total Lower-48 working gas was 2,759 Bcf (week ending Jun 12) and 2,835 Bcf (week ending Jun 19), implying a remaining gap of about 315 Bcf to reach 3,150.

• frontier_2 - Modal: Aug 01, 2026 to Aug 08, 2026 (30.0%)

  • Starting point: week ending June 19, 2026 = 2,835 Bcf. To first cross 3,150 Bcf requires +315 Bcf.

• frontier_3 - Modal: Jul 25, 2026 to Aug 01, 2026 (31.0%)

  • As of Friday, June 19, 2026, the EIA reported Lower-48 working gas in underground storage at 2,835 Bcf. To reach the threshold of 3,150 Bcf, an additional 315 Bcf of net injections is required.

• frontier_4 - Modal: Jul 25, 2026 to Aug 01, 2026 (35.0%)

  • Current storage at 2835 Bcf (week ending 2026-06-19) requires ~315 Bcf net build. Typical June-August weekly injections of 50-80 Bcf place the first crossing most likely in the Jul 25-Aug 08 window (bins 3-4), with secondary mass in bin_2 and modest tail beyond the observation window.

• frontier_5 - Modal: Aug 08, 2026 to Sep 07, 2026 (45.0%)

  • Storage on June 19, 2026 was 2,835 Bcf — 315 Bcf below the 3,150 Bcf threshold. Recent injections are running ~70–90 Bcf/wk in June (76 Bcf last report; consensus for week ending June 26 around +75–100 Bcf; cooler shoulder season).

Adjudication

• Material notes

  • frontier_5: flag_only/warning - Agent’s direct resolver fetch failed (content-type mismatch) and it relied on secondary sources; heavy mass assigned to post-window bins may be overly reliant on indirect evidence.

• Guidance

  • Most lanes used the resolver EIA starting figure (week-ending 2026-06-19 = 2,835 Bcf) and applied plausible injection-rate scenarios; frontier_5 reported failed direct fetches and relied on secondary/consensus data, then assigned heavy probability to post-window bins.

• Revision

  • Frontier revision skipped: no_selected_adjudicator_reviews.

Final Distribution (date ranges)

Sources Checked

• Resolver: Resolver URL extracted mechanically from resolution criteria - https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
• frontier_1: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/
• frontier_2: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report / eia.gov/naturalgas/storage
• frontier_2: EIA / naturalgasintel.com / tradingeconomics
• frontier_2: naturalgasintel.com (2026-06-22)
• frontier_2: level_forecast tool

wooley_rhino • run 2321d519 • $2.47 • 3m48s

Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1783641600.0, 1.0: 1783641600.0, 5.0: 1783641600.0, 10.0: 1784246400.0, 15.0: 1784246400.0, 20.0: 1784246400.0, 25.0: 1784246400.0, 30.0: 1784246400.0, 35.0: 1784851200.0, 40.0: 1784851200.0, 45.0: 1784851200.0, 46.0: 1784851200.0, 47.0: 1784851200.0, 48.0: 1784851200.0, 49.0: 1784851200.0, 50.0: 1784851200.0, 51.0: 1784851200.0, 52.0: 1784851200.0, 53.0: 1784851200.0, 54.0: 1784851200.0, 55.0: 1784851200.0, 60.0: 1784851200.0, 65.0: 1784851200.0, 70.0: 1785456000.0, 75.0: 1785456000.0, 80.0: 1785456000.0, 85.0: 1785456000.0, 90.0: 1786060800.0, 95.0: 1786060800.0, 99.0: 1786060800.0, 99.9: 1786060800.0}

Model’s Answer:

Analysis

Step one: Identify the resolution cadence.

The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report covers data as of each Friday, released the following Thursday. The question resolves to the Friday week-ending date. Possible resolution Fridays between today (2026-07-01) and the August 8 cutoff:

• 2026-07-03 (released ~Jul 9… but June 26 data not yet released as of today Jul 1)

Wait — let me map the upcoming weeks correctly:

• Week ending 2026-06-26: released Thu Jul 2 (tomorrow) — not yet known
• Week ending 2026-07-03: released Thu Jul 9
• Week ending 2026-07-10: released Thu Jul 17
• Week ending 2026-07-17: released Thu Jul 24
• Week ending 2026-07-24: released Thu Jul 31
• Week ending 2026-07-31: released Thu Aug 6
• Week ending 2026-08-07: released Thu Aug 13 (last eligible per resolution criteria)

These seven Fridays are the only possible resolution dates within the window. All probability mass must concentrate on them (or “after Aug 7” for the out-of-window scenario).

Step two: Establish the current gap and injection trajectory.

• Current level (June 19): 2,835 Bcf
• Threshold: 3,150 Bcf
• Gap: 315 Bcf
• Forecast for June 26: ~2,909 Bcf (from MarineLink)
• Post-June-26 gap: ~241 Bcf
• Recent injection pace: 73–108 Bcf/week, recent average ~75–80 Bcf/week

At 75 Bcf/week from June 26: 241/75 ≈ 3.2 more weeks → crosses around July 17–21. At 80 Bcf/week: 241/80 ≈ 3.0 weeks → crosses around July 17. At 65 Bcf/week (summer heat slowing injections): 241/65 ≈ 3.7 weeks → crosses around July 24–28. At 55 Bcf/week (hot summer peak demand): ~4.4 weeks → July 31.

Historical analogues: Research shows 2025 crossed ~3,000 Bcf around July 4 week-ending, suggesting 3,150 Bcf in mid-to-late July is consistent with seasonal norms.

Step three: Key assumptions and their failure probabilities.

Assumption A: Weekly injections remain in the 65–85 Bcf range through late July (consistent with recent history). If this fails — e.g., a prolonged heat wave drives power demand much higher, reducing net injections to 40–55 Bcf/week — the threshold would be delayed to late July or August. I’d estimate a ~20% chance of materially slower injection pace.

Assumption B: Current 2026 storage is tracking near or above the 5-year average (confirmed: +152 Bcf above 5yr avg), implying no unusual structural deficit. This appears well-supported. Failure probability: ~5%.

Assumption C: The June 26 figure is near 2,909 Bcf as MarineLink projects. If an unusually large ~100+ Bcf injection occurred that week (like the 108 Bcf seen in recent weeks), the June 26 figure could be as high as ~2,940, which would pull the crossing date earlier. Probability of June 26 ≥ 2,950: ~10%.

Step four: Why an earlier outcome could occur.

If the most recent large injection (~108 Bcf was seen recently) repeats or if above-average injection rates persist from high production and mild weather, we could see 3,150 Bcf as early as 2026-07-10 (three more injections of ~105 Bcf each from current levels). Probability: ~5%.

Why a later outcome could occur.

If peak summer heat reduces power sector gas demand (requiring withdrawals from storage or very low net injections) or if LNG exports surge, net injections could fall to 45–60 Bcf/week, pushing the crossing to late July or into August. A summer where injections average ~55 Bcf/week would delay resolution to 2026-07-31 or 2026-08-07. Probability of not crossing before July 31: ~15%.

Step five: Probability assignment per date.

Cumulative: July 10 = 5%, July 17 = 30%, July 24 = 68%, July 31 = 85%, Aug 7 = 94%, After = 100%.

The median (P50) is 2026-07-24, with the modal outcome also July 24.

Percentile .1: 2026-07-10 Percentile 1: 2026-07-10 Percentile 5: 2026-07-10 Percentile 10: 2026-07-17 Percentile 15: 2026-07-17 Percentile 20: 2026-07-17 Percentile 25: 2026-07-17 Percentile 30: 2026-07-17 Percentile 35: 2026-07-24 Percentile 40: 2026-07-24 Percentile 45: 2026-07-24 Percentile 46: 2026-07-24 Percentile 47: 2026-07-24 Percentile 48: 2026-07-24 Percentile 49: 2026-07-24 Percentile 50: 2026-07-24 Percentile 51: 2026-07-24 Percentile 52: 2026-07-24 Percentile 53: 2026-07-24 Percentile 54: 2026-07-24 Percentile 55: 2026-07-24 Percentile 60: 2026-07-24 Percentile 65: 2026-07-24 Percentile 70: 2026-07-31 Percentile 75: 2026-07-31 Percentile 80: 2026-07-31 Percentile 85: 2026-07-31 Percentile 90: 2026-08-07 Percentile 95: 2026-08-07 Percentile 99: 2026-08-07 Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-07

The injection season calendar and finite underground working capacity set the slow-moving boundary for how quickly stocks can rise.

Elevated starting stocks at the June reference point compress typical July refill responsiveness and bias outcomes later in the season.

Inventories sit several hundred Bcf below 3,150 Bcf, leaving a roughly 315 Bcf gap to bridge from the most recent published level.

Recent weekly injections track late‑spring normals while rising cooling demand in early July tends to reduce injection magnitude.

A sequence of unusually large late‑June or early‑July injections is the main conditional pathway that would bring the crossing into late July.

Sustained above‑normal heat through early July suppresses injections and pushes the first plausible crossing toward the August 7 window or later.

Primary unresolved uncertainties are the unreleased late‑June week, high week‑to‑week injection volatility, and the limited analogue sample when conditioning on a high start.

Outcome sensitivity concentrates on near‑term weather and any abrupt shifts in exports or production that materially alter the weekly net gas balance.

Forecast (median): 2026-08-04

• Storage is already close to the target: it starts from about 2,835 Bcf (week ending 6/19/26), needing roughly +315 Bcf to reach 3,150 Bcf.
• The key uncertainty is the weekly net injection pace during late June through August—if builds slow, the threshold is hit later.
• Summer heat and power demand are expected to matter: hotter conditions can reduce net injections by increasing gas use for cooling and electricity.
• LNG export demand can also pull gas away from storage, contributing to a slower rise in working gas.
• While higher production in 2026 supports faster filling, historical patterns from similar periods suggest the crossing is still most likely in the early-to-mid August window, with a meaningful chance of going into late August or September if the slowdown persists.