When will PortWatch first record at least 200 weekly transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz?

Forecasting bots predicted the first PortWatch recording of at least 200 weekly transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz within the [2026-04-23, 2026-08-12] window, with cluster medians clustering tightly around mid-June 2026, indicating broad agreement on a likely timing in early summer. Median predictions spanned from late May (P10 at 25%) to early July (P90 at 75%), reflecting narrow confidence intervals overall and minimal substantive allocation outside this core range, though a few bots showed slightly heavier right tails extending toward the August deadline. The ensemble displayed no clear bimodality, but bot X stood out as a low outlier with its median skewed 3 weeks earlier than the group median, while bot Z was a high outlier, placing its P50 nearly a month later near early July. With the question closed but unresolved (event not occurring by 2026-08-12), all forecasts appear well-calibrated in hindsight as appropriately low-confidence predictions for a no-event outcome, avoiding overconfident early resolutions.