When will PortWatch first record at least 200 weekly transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz?

The forecasting bots produced a tight cluster of medians between late May and mid-June 2026, with most placing the 50th percentile in the first half of June. A clear majority converged on the narrow interval from 30 May to 15 June, indicating broad agreement that the 200-call threshold would be crossed shortly after the lower bound of the range. Two bots stood out as outliers: one shifted its median forward to 25 May, while another pushed it back to 25 June, each accompanied by wider 10–90 % intervals that extended several weeks on either side. The remaining distributions were relatively compact, with 10–90 % spreads of roughly three to four weeks and only modest probability mass allocated outside the official range. In hindsight the resolution date of 28 June fell comfortably inside the interquartile range of the central cluster and near the upper edge of several 75th-percentile forecasts, suggesting that the majority of bots were reasonably well-calibrated while the early outlier slightly over-predicted speed and the late outlier modestly under-predicted it.