What will be the Nasdaq Private Market valuation spread between OpenAI and Anthropic on August 12, 2026?

• My most likely prediction for the Nasdaq Private Market valuation spread (OpenAI minus Anthropic) on August 12, 2026, is -75.00 $B, with a 50% chance of falling between -135.00 $B and -18.00 $B.
• Anthropic has agreed to terms for a new $30 billion funding round at a post-money valuation of $900 billion, which would effectively close or flip the current official spread if reflected on the Nasdaq Private Market by August.
• Secondary market platforms such as Forge Global already report Anthropic trading at a premium to OpenAI, with implied valuations reaching as high as $1.2 trillion for Anthropic versus approximately $880 billion for OpenAI.
• External prediction markets (Polymarket) show an 82% probability that Anthropic will lead in valuation by June 30, 2026, suggesting that market participants expect the “flip” to be reflected in official data shortly.
• OpenAI’s valuation has remained relatively stable in the $850B range throughout early 2026, while Anthropic is experiencing a “hyper-growth” phase in its valuation and revenue run rate.
• There is a high probability that the August 12 resolution will be influenced by public market capitalization if either company executes an early IPO, both of which are rumored for late 2026.

Key figures

Historical context

• OpenAI was valued at $157B in October 2024, rising to $852B by early 2026 through massive primary rounds and secondary sales.
• Anthropic has seen even more rapid escalation, moving from a $61.5B valuation in March 2025 to $380B in February 2026, and a rumored $900B by May 2026.
• In April 2026, secondary markets (Forge Global) reported the first “flip” where Anthropic traded at a $1T valuation compared to OpenAI’s $880B.
• NPM (formerly SecondMarket) has historically functioned as a key price discovery tool for unicorns, often lagging primary rounds but reflecting real-time supply/demand imbalances.
• The AI sector in 2025-2026 has been characterized by “valuation hyper-growth,” with both companies raising capital amounts previously unseen in private markets (e.g., OpenAI’s $110B round).

Tailwinds

• Anthropic’s annualized revenue is reportedly approaching $45B, potentially surpassing OpenAI’s revenue and justifying a higher valuation.
• Intense investor competition and a shortage of available shares for Anthropic are driving secondary market prices to record highs ($1.2T).
• Polymarket traders show high conviction (over 80%) that Anthropic will overtake OpenAI in the NPM index by mid-summer 2026.
• Massive capital commitments from Alphabet and Amazon (up to $65B combined) provide Anthropic with unparalleled financial backing compared to OpenAI’s Microsoft partnership.

Headwinds

• OpenAI could announce a new massive funding round or breakthrough (e.g., GPT-5 release) before August, reclaiming its valuation lead.
• Anthropic’s $30B-$50B funding round could face delays or a lower final valuation than the rumored $900B.
• The Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) methodology might be slow to update its “Tape D” figures, remaining anchored to the older $380B mark for Anthropic.
• OpenAI’s existing massive revenue base and deeper integration with Microsoft may provide a higher valuation floor during market corrections.

Detailed reasoning

My analysis of the valuation spread between OpenAI and Anthropic for August 12, 2026, is centered on a major shift in relative market dominance. As of May 2026, the official Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) “Tape D” data shows OpenAI at $850 billion and Anthropic at $380 billion, creating a current positive spread of $470 billion. However, this figure is widely considered “stale” by market participants.

The core of my forecast is based on the massive $30 billion Series G funding round Anthropic agreed to in mid-May 2026, which values the company at $900 billion post-money. This primary round, combined with secondary market reports from Forge Global and Jupiter that already price Anthropic at $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, suggests that the “true” market value of Anthropic has already overtaken OpenAI, which is currently trading between $852 billion and $880 billion.

I have weighted the forecast toward a negative resolution (Anthropic leading) for several reasons. First, external prediction markets on Polymarket show a high conviction (82%) that Anthropic will lead by June 30, 2026. This date is critical as it falls just six weeks before our resolution date. Second, the momentum of Anthropic’s revenue growth—approaching a $45 billion annualized run rate—has reportedly surpassed OpenAI’s, providing a fundamental justification for the valuation flip.

I used a mixture model to account for different market regimes:

1. The Lead Scenario (approx. 60-70% weight): This assumes NPM successfully captures the new Anthropic funding round and current secondary market sentiment. In this scenario, OpenAI stays near its $850B-$900B mark while Anthropic settles between $900B and $1T, leading to a spread centered around -$75 billion.
2. The Stale Data/Delayed Round Scenario (approx. 15-20% weight): This considers the possibility that Anthropic’s funding round is delayed or that NPM’s proprietary “Tape D” methodology, which aggregates various marks, remains anchored to older data. This would preserve a positive spread, though likely smaller than the current $470 billion as secondary trades leak into the index.
3. The High Volatility/IPO Scenario (approx. 10-15% weight): Both companies are rumored to be pursuing IPOs in late 2026. If either launches early or if public sentiment shifts rapidly, the spread could widen significantly in either direction.

Ultimately, the preponderance of evidence—from primary funding terms to secondary market bids and institutional prediction markets—points to Anthropic surpassing OpenAI in value by August 2026. My most likely value of -75.00 $B reflects a scenario where Anthropic has a clear but not overwhelming lead in the NPM index.

Key uncertainties

• Timing of NPM updates: If Anthropic’s $900B round is not fully “cleared” through NPM’s Tape D by August 12, the resolution could remain positive.
• IPO Volatility: An early IPO by either company would shift the resolution from private marks to public market caps, which are significantly more volatile.
• Regulatory intervention: Antitrust or supply-chain designations (like the DoD designation Anthropic is fighting) could suddenly suppress valuations.
• Macroeconomic conditions: Federal Reserve interest rate decisions in June and July 2026 will impact the cost of capital and late-stage private valuations.

Conclusion

• My most likely prediction for the valuation spread (OpenAI minus Anthropic) is -75.00 $B, with a 50% chance of falling between -135.00 $B and -18.00 $B.
• Watch for the official closing of Anthropic’s $30B funding round in late May or June 2026, as this will likely be the primary catalyst for the Nasdaq Private Market’s repricing.
• Monitor secondary market platforms like Forge Global and Jupiter for divergence; a significant widening of the spread in favor of Anthropic on these platforms usually precedes NPM adjustments.

Question: which company-level Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) valuation will be higher on or before Aug 12, 2026 — OpenAI or Anthropic — measured as the NPM OpenAI minus Anthropic spread. Forecasters agree the resolution hinges on gated NPM prints (not headline financing announcements), and current high-quality anchors favor OpenAI by a wide margin: official completed rounds give OpenAI $852B vs Anthropic $380B (a $472B spread), while NPM-adjacent rounded proxies imply about $730B vs $350B (≈$380B). The key disagreement/uncertainty is Anthropic: rapid reported revenue growth and market talk of investor interest or possible financings in the $800B–$1T range create a plausible path to a pre-August NPM re-rating that could compress the spread toward parity or even invert it. Forecasters therefore place a plurality/majority of probability mass above +$300B (i.e., OpenAI still well ahead) but assign meaningful mass to the 0–$300B compression range and a smaller but real tail for parity/inversion if Anthropic’s higher marks are recognized. Monitoring priorities that would change the forecast are gaining access to the gated NPM valuation rows, any completed/board‑approved Anthropic financing or sanctioned secondary above $380B, and any acceleration of OpenAI’s IPO timing before Aug 12.

Forecast and Reasoning

Forecast: Probability distribution:

• 5.00% chance of value below -285.0
• 10.00% chance of value below -240.0
• 20.00% chance of value below -190.0
• 30.00% chance of value below -155.0
• 40.00% chance of value below -125.0
• 50.00% chance of value below -100.0
• 60.00% chance of value below -75.0
• 70.00% chance of value below -45.0
• 80.00% chance of value below -2.0
• 90.00% chance of value below 55.0
• 95.00% chance of value below 140.0

Forecast Reasoning

We need the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) valuation spread on 2026-08-12: OpenAI valuation minus Anthropic valuation, in $B. The horizon is short (~12 weeks), so the best anchor is the latest NPM-based/secondary-market implied valuations rather than stale primary-round headlines.

Across analysts, three (Forecasters 1/2/4) independently conclude that (as of mid‑May 2026) Anthropic is already priced above OpenAI on secondary/NPM-linked marks, with an implied current spread around roughly -20B to -125B. Forecaster 2 provides the most directly NPM-specific claim (implied valuations from NPM prices leading to ~-125B), while Forecaster 1 and 4 cite similar directionality but with more ambiguity (per-share prices without share counts; Notice.co values that may not perfectly match NPM).

Forecaster 3’s opposing view (large positive spread piling at +300) is mainly an artifact of being unable to access NPM data and anchoring on widely reported primary-round post-money valuations (e.g., ~$852B vs ~$380B). That anchor is plausibly inconsistent with the near-term secondary pricing signals the other analysts report; since the contract resolves specifically on NPM (or IPO-implied market cap if an IPO occurs), I discount Forecaster 3 heavily.

Key drivers into Aug 12: (1) whether Anthropic closes/prices a large round near ~$900B+ (likely supporting Anthropic’s lead), (2) whether OpenAI has a major liquidity/financing/event that re-prices it upward, and (3) overall AI risk sentiment. IPO within the window seems possible but not a base case; it remains a tail risk that could create very large spreads.

Synthesis: the median outcome is a moderately negative spread (Anthropic ahead), with substantial uncertainty but not enough evidence for >5% probability that the spread exceeds ±300 by Aug 12. I center the distribution near -100B, with ~80% probability the spread remains negative.

An amateur forecast is likely to (a) naively subtract the most-publicized primary-round valuations (producing a huge positive spread) or (b) overreact to a single headline about one company “overtaking” the other without tying it to the contract’s NPM data source. This forecast instead weights the most NPM-relevant, near-date information (especially the analyst claiming direct NPM-implied valuations), discounts the forecast that explicitly lacked NPM access, and uses a wide-but-plausible 3‑month volatility band with tails for funding/IPO surprises. Confidence is medium: the direction (negative) is fairly robust across sources, while the exact magnitude is noisy in private/secondary markets.

Forecast rationale (numeric):

— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is fairly consistent:

Main consensus

• Anthropic is expected to remain valued above OpenAI on Nasdaq Private Market by Aug. 12, 2026.
• Most estimates therefore imply a negative spread if the spread is defined as OpenAI minus Anthropic or, equivalently, that Anthropic is ahead by roughly $100B–$200B+.

Key factors driving the forecasts

1. Current secondary-market pricing

   • The dominant anchor is recent secondary-market evidence from April–May 2026.
   • Those references generally place Anthropic ahead of OpenAI by about $150B–$270B, which strongly shapes the central estimates.

2. Prediction-market confirmation

   • Polymarket-style odds are treated as an additional signal that Anthropic will likely stay ahead through the forecast date.
   • This supports a high probability of a negative spread rather than a near-zero or positive one.

3. Methodology caveats for NPM

   • Several forecasts note that NPM valuations may lag or differ from broader secondary-market marks.
   • Differences in share-count assumptions, tender timing, and valuation methodology could narrow or widen the observed spread relative to headline secondary figures.

4. Potential OpenAI upside catalysts

   • Some forecasts allow for mean reversion or an OpenAI-specific event, such as a major model launch, new tender pricing, or an IPO-like revaluation.
   • This is why the distribution often has a meaningful positive tail for OpenAI catching up.

5. Tail-risk from large corporate events

   • Major financings, tender offers, IPO announcements, or sudden repricing in either company could move the spread sharply.
   • As a result, the forecasts use fat-tailed distributions rather than narrow point estimates.

Areas of disagreement

• The forecasts differ mainly on how far above OpenAI Anthropic should be:
  • Some center closer to -115B to -135B,
  • Others closer to -155B or even more negative.
• There is also disagreement on how much weight to give to possible OpenAI recovery, but none of the forecasts see that as the base case.

Overall synthesis

The collective view is that Anthropic is the likely leader on NPM by mid-August 2026, with the spread probably still substantially negative in OpenAI’s favor only if a major catalyst occurs. The main uncertainty is not direction but magnitude and volatility, given the possibility of fast-moving secondary-market repricing and NPM-specific methodology effects.

— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning pattern is a mix of market-based signals, public valuation anchors, and strong uncertainty about how NPM converts shares into “valuation”.

Key factors used

• Prediction-market / secondary-market signals:
  The strongest common signal is that market prices and related prediction markets currently lean toward Anthropic having the higher NPM valuation by the resolution date.

• Public valuation reports as a cross-check:
  Several rationales also reference reported fundraising or implied valuations for both companies. These reports sometimes point in the opposite direction or suggest a narrower gap, which creates ambiguity about whether OpenAI could still be ahead on the NPM metric.

• NPM methodology uncertainty:
  A major source of uncertainty is that the forecasts do not know the exact share-count conversion rules, total outstanding shares, or NPM valuation construction, so the relationship between per-share prices and the final spread is not fully observable.

• High volatility and event risk:
  All rationales emphasize that private AI valuations can shift dramatically due to new financing rounds, tender offers, IPO-related news, or broader market shocks, so the distribution needs very wide tails.

Areas of consensus

• The forecasts broadly agree that Anthropic currently has the edge, so the expected spread is generally negative (Anthropic above OpenAI).
• They also agree that the spread is highly uncertain and could move substantially before August 12, 2026.
• All models assign meaningful probability to large valuation re-ratings from corporate events.

Main disagreement

• The forecasts differ mainly on how large Anthropic’s advantage is:
  • One expects a large negative spread (Anthropic clearly ahead).
  • Another expects a moderate negative spread.
  • Another lands close to parity, with only a slight Anthropic lead, because it gives more weight to public valuation reports suggesting OpenAI may still be higher in absolute valuation.

Overall synthesis

The collective view is that the best estimate is Anthropic modestly to materially ahead of OpenAI, but with very wide uncertainty bands due to opaque NPM mechanics and the possibility of major private-market events before the resolution date.

— Iteration 3 — The forecasts largely converge on a modestly negative spread by August 12, 2026, meaning Anthropic is expected to remain valued above OpenAI on Nasdaq Private Market. The central estimate clusters around -$80B to -$110B for the spread, grounded in recent secondary-market marks suggesting Anthropic near $1T and OpenAI near $880B.

Main reasoning patterns

• Current private-market prices are the main anchor. Most reasoning starts from the latest reported secondary-market gap of roughly - $120B.
• Prediction-market signals reinforce that Anthropic likely stays ahead. Implied probabilities around 75–80% that Anthropic remains above OpenAI support a negative median spread.
• The distribution is very wide. Private-market valuations can move sharply on new rounds, liquidity changes, or methodology updates, so the range of outcomes is broad.

Points of consensus

• Median outcome: Anthropic likely keeps a valuation premium over OpenAI.
• Direction: The spread is more likely to stay below zero than flip positive.
• Volatility: NPM marks are seen as unstable and highly sensitive to new financing news.

Main sources of disagreement / uncertainty

• How much OpenAI can recover relative to Anthropic. Some expect OpenAI to regain ground; others think Anthropic’s momentum persists.
• NPM methodology risk. If NPM relies more on older official rounds than on current secondary data, the spread could swing sharply positive.
• Tail risk from major announcements. A new funding round, IPO-related event, or major AI news could move either company’s mark by hundreds of billions.

Overall takeaway

The collective view is that Anthropic probably remains ahead on NPM, with a moderately negative spread centered near -$100B, but the forecast is dominated by large uncertainty and fat tails rather than high confidence in a precise number.

Summary of Forecasting Rationales

NPM Valuation Mechanics & Secondary Market Freeze Forecasters universally agree that the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) methodology is the central mechanism deciding this spread. While secondary markets previously assigned massive speculative premiums to both companies, recent crackdowns by OpenAI and Anthropic on unauthorized secondary trading have essentially frozen those markets. Consequently, NPM’s algorithm is expected to heavily anchor to the most recent, officially closed primary funding rounds and company-sponsored tender offers rather than volatile secondary estimates.

Anthropic’s Impending Primary Round The pivotal catalyst driving the forecast is Anthropic’s pending mega-round. Forecasters note that term sheets are already agreed upon, and expect the deal to close before the August 12 deadline. When it does, Anthropic’s NPM valuation will experience a “step-function” jump to reflect the new primary baseline.

OpenAI’s Baseline & IPO Hype OpenAI’s valuation is currently anchored by its own recently closed primary round. While its secondary market demand has temporarily cooled relative to Anthropic’s, forecasters highlight that OpenAI’s upcoming confidential S-1 filing and potential pre-IPO tender offers could trigger a surge in approved secondary trading, revitalizing its valuation prior to the deadline.

Scenarios and Tail Risks

• Central Expectation (Negative Spread): The consensus strongly anticipates a negative spread, where Anthropic’s pending primary round closes smoothly and establishes a higher official valuation than OpenAI’s current primary benchmark.
• Upside Risks (Positive Spread): Forecasters identify a significant tail risk if Anthropic’s round is delayed by regulatory scrutiny or complex syndication. If the deal fails to close by mid-August, NPM will peg Anthropic to its significantly lower previous funding round, leaving OpenAI with a massive valuation lead. Additionally, explosive pre-IPO momentum for OpenAI could push the spread back into positive territory.

SUMMARY

Question: What will be the Nasdaq Private Market valuation spread between OpenAI and Anthropic on August 12, 2026? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below -292.666667
• 20.00% chance of value below -224.0
• 40.00% chance of value below -146.0
• 60.00% chance of value below -83.0
• 80.00% chance of value below 4.333333
• 90.00% chance of value below 114.333333

Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled

Report 1 Summary

Forecasts

Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below -275.0
• 20.00% chance of value below -215.0
• 40.00% chance of value below -136.0
• 60.00% chance of value below -73.0
• 80.00% chance of value below -3.0
• 90.00% chance of value below 78.0

Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below -305.0
• 20.00% chance of value below -232.0
• 40.00% chance of value below -153.0
• 60.00% chance of value below -91.0
• 80.00% chance of value below -2.0
• 90.00% chance of value below 115.0

Forecaster 3: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below -298.0
• 20.00% chance of value below -225.0
• 40.00% chance of value below -149.0
• 60.00% chance of value below -85.0
• 80.00% chance of value below 18.0
• 90.00% chance of value below 150.0

Research Summary

The research reports that as of May 20, 2026 OpenAI’s latest primary funding round implies a valuation near $852B (with ~$122B raised in March 2026) while Anthropic’s secondary-market pricing and recent primary funding imply valuations at or above $1.0T (with a $380B primary in Feb 2026 and secondary listings up to $1.15T in April–May 2026), producing a current implied spread of roughly −$148B (Anthropic higher). It notes OpenAI is facing missed growth targets, large projected cash burn and spending commitments, weaker secondary demand, and a potential IPO filing, while Anthropic shows strong secondary-market momentum, active listings, revenue growth from its Claude Code product, and scarce share supply driving FOMO; prediction markets (Polymarket) show much higher liquidity for Anthropic contracts and assign ~96% implied probability that Anthropic will surpass OpenAI at some point in 2026, with an OpenAI contract indicating an ~86% chance of exceeding $1T by year-end.

The report outlines three scenario ranges for the August 12, 2026 spread: (1) status quo (no IPOs) keeping Anthropic ahead by roughly $100–$300B; (2) an OpenAI IPO that could push OpenAI to $1T+ and flip or tighten the spread (0 to +$200B); and (3) a market correction compressing or reversing the spread. It emphasizes high volatility and limited liquidity in private-secondary valuations, the once-daily Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) publication cadence and resolution rules, IPO timing uncertainty, and regulatory/geopolitical risks as key limitations that could materially change outcomes before the August 12, 2026 resolution date.

Websites/sources used: https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-private-market https://forgeglobal.com https://polymarket.com

RESEARCH

Report 1 Research

Based on my research, here’s a detailed rundown for forecasting the OpenAI-Anthropic valuation spread on August 12, 2026:

Current Valuation Status (May 20, 2026)

OpenAI: $852 billion (March 2026 primary funding round - $122 billion raised) [1][2]

Anthropic: $1 trillion+ in secondary markets (April 2026), with recent primary funding at $380 billion (February 2026) [6][8]

Current Implied Spread: Approximately -$148 billion (Anthropic exceeds OpenAI)

The valuation dynamics have dramatically shifted, with Anthropic surpassing OpenAI in secondary market valuations as of April 2026. On platforms like Forge Global, Anthropic stabilized around $1 trillion while OpenAI trades at approximately $880 billion [6][8].

Recent Critical Developments

OpenAI Challenges:

• Missing key internal growth targets and struggling with profitability path [1][2]
• Projected cash burn of $115 billion by 2029 [1]
• $600 billion in future spending commitments to chipmakers and cloud partners [1][2]
• Secondary market demand has weakened significantly, with buyer bids falling below the $852 billion valuation [6][8]
• May file for IPO as early as May 24, 2026, following legal victory over Elon Musk [10][27]

Anthropic Momentum:

• Seeking new funding round of at least $30 billion at $900+ billion pre-money valuation [4][7]
• Secondary trading highly active, with shareholders listing shares at $1.15 trillion valuations [6][8]
• Strong revenue growth driven by Claude Code AI tool [6][8]
• Scarcity of available shares driving “fear of missing out” buying [8]
• Potential IPO in Q4 2026, possibly before OpenAI [4][32]

Prediction Markets & Liquidity Measures

Polymarket Markets (launched May 19, 2026): [5][11][12][13]

1. OpenAI Valuation by Dec 31, 2026:

• Volume: $267,672
• 86% probability of exceeding $1.0 trillion
• 84% probability of reaching $850 billion by June 30

2. Anthropic Markets:

• Aggregate volume: $2.6+ million
• 96% implied probability that Anthropic’s valuation will surpass OpenAI’s at some point in 2026
• Strong liquidity indicates high trader engagement

3. Data Source: Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) serves as exclusive resolution provider, publishing daily valuations at 1:00 PM ET [5][11][12]

These prediction markets show significantly higher liquidity for Anthropic-related contracts ($2.6M vs $267K), suggesting stronger market interest and more reliable price discovery for Anthropic.

Historical Base Rates & Reference Classes

Private Market Valuation Volatility:

• Anthropic’s valuation rose from $380 billion (February 2026) to $1+ trillion (April 2026) - a 163% increase in just 3 months [6][7][8]
• Secondary market valuations are based on marginal transactions that may not reflect true market depth [16]
• Private company valuations can experience extreme swings due to limited liquidity and transaction scarcity

Comparable Precedents:

• The “Magic Seven” private companies (including OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) account for 43% of all US unicorn valuations, showing extreme capital concentration [16]
• Historical pattern: Private market valuations often deviate from fundamentals during hype cycles, with 30% probability of down rounds due to regulatory pressure or commercialization delays [16]
• Median time to IPO for unicorns now exceeds 10 years, but AI companies may break this pattern [16]

Secondary Market Reliability:

• Secondary transactions involve small volumes that can disproportionately affect headline valuations [6][16]
• Market participants note buying is driven by “FOMO” rather than fundamentals: “it is no longer about profitability, but about saying: I am an Anthropic investor” [8]
• Private equity firms increasingly using secondary markets for liquidity (43% vs 24% year ago) [17]

Key Risk Factors for August 12, 2026

IPO Scenarios (High Impact):

1. OpenAI IPO: May file confidentially as early as May 24, 2026; public listing could occur before August 12 [10][27][29]. If IPO occurs, public market capitalization will be used for resolution, potentially targeting $1+ trillion valuation.

2. Anthropic IPO: Possible Q4 2026 or later [26][28][32]. Less likely to impact August 12 resolution.

3. Market Reception Risk: Analysts warn these IPOs will face intense scrutiny and “can’t miss their earnings” [29][31]. Poor performance could trigger valuation corrections across both companies.

Operational/Fundamental Factors:

• OpenAI’s path to profitability narrowing; competition from Anthropic intensifying [1][2]
• Pentagon labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk,” creating regulatory uncertainty [7]
• AI sector facing broader questions about capital efficiency and return on investment [19][24]

Market Structure Concerns:

• Tech stock valuations under pressure since early 2026; software sector lost $1 trillion in market value [19]
• Geopolitical volatility (Middle East conflicts) affecting risk asset pricing [20][24]
• Secondary market pricing may not reflect fundamental support [6]

Quantitative Anchors

Current Secondary Market Data (April-May 2026):

• Anthropic trading at $1.0-1.15 trillion on secondary platforms [6][8]
• OpenAI trading at $880 billion, below its $852 billion primary round [6]
• Current spread: approximately -$148 billion to -$298 billion (Anthropic higher)

Potential Ranges by August 12, 2026:

Scenario 1 - Status Quo (No IPOs):

• If current trends continue, spread likely remains negative (Anthropic > OpenAI) by $100-300 billion

Scenario 2 - OpenAI IPO Success:

• OpenAI achieves $1+ trillion public valuation, Anthropic remains at $1 trillion in secondary market
• Spread: $0 to +$200 billion (OpenAI higher)

Scenario 3 - Market Correction:

• Both companies face downward valuation pressure from fundamentals
• Could compress spread closer to $0 or reverse current dynamics

Notable Limitations

1. Data Frequency: NPM publishes once daily for trading days only; actual transaction volume and frequency unclear
2. Sample Bias: Secondary valuations reflect marginal trades by insiders/early investors, not broad market consensus
3. Resolution Complexity: The question will use “most recent data point published on or before August 12, 2026,” which could be from August 11 or earlier if no trading
4. IPO Uncertainty: Timing and pricing of potential IPOs remain speculative; regulatory approvals and market conditions could shift dramatically

Summary

The current market strongly favors Anthropic, with a negative spread of approximately -$148 billion. Prediction markets assign 96% probability that Anthropic maintains its valuation lead over OpenAI in 2026. However, the 3-month period until August 12 presents significant uncertainty, particularly around potential IPO events for OpenAI. Secondary market valuations show high volatility and questionable fundamental support, with private market pricing driven more by momentum and scarcity than underlying business performance.

FORECASTS

R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning

Conditioning on no annulment, I agree with the critic enough to move the forecast modestly less negative and widen the right tail, but not enough to make convergence my central case.

The valid criticism is that my prior distribution still behaved too much like a smooth extrapolation from the current NPM spread. NPM’s own methodology argues for a “sticky with jumps” process: its price is an algorithmic daily estimate using reported secondary trades, bid/offers, primary rounds, 409A marks, mutual-fund marks, and historical estimates, refreshed on market business days. That means headline secondary-market excitement should not be mechanically extrapolated, but one verified trade / round / fund mark can still create a discontinuous repricing. (nasdaqprivatemarket.com)

I also accept the critic’s point that the extra time between a June 30-style comparison and the August 12 resolution matters. OpenAI’s actual IPO before August 12 still looks unlikely: Axios reports OpenAI is preparing a confidential filing, but also says confidential filings usually precede public S-1s by months and that OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs are likely between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, which puts the modal actual listing after the resolution date. Still, a confidential-filing narrative can move NPM/secondary marks before an IPO. (axios.com)

Where I still defend the negative central case: the current NPM-linked anchor is already around -$114B, and Anthropic has the cleaner near-term valuation-validation event. TechCrunch reported Anthropic was seeking a roughly $900B valuation and that the final valuation could exceed that, while noting OpenAI’s official recent post-money valuation at $852B; OpenAI itself announced that $122B round at a $852B post-money valuation. (techcrunch.com)

The newer insight I’m incorporating is that a “successful” Anthropic round around $900B–$950B post-money is not necessarily very bearish for this spread if NPM already has Anthropic around $936B. It validates Anthropic ahead, but may cap the $1T+ scarcity premium. Reporting on Anthropic’s secondary-market heat notes $1T-style indications and even higher offered marks, while also emphasizing the gap between those secondary indications and the last primary valuation; that makes Anthropic’s lead real but potentially fragile. (tomshardware.com)

So my adjustments are:

• Median: -$118B → about -$104B
• Probability Anthropic remains ahead: ~83% → ~80%
• More mass in +$100B to +$300B outcomes from OpenAI IPO-rerating / Anthropic normalization
• Slightly fatter far tails, because the resolving series can jump on financing, tender, mutual-fund marks, or data-source artifacts

Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: -760
Percentile 1: -525
Percentile 5: -345
Percentile 10: -275
Percentile 20: -215
Percentile 30: -172
Percentile 40: -136
Percentile 50: -104
Percentile 60: -73
Percentile 70: -41
Percentile 80: -3
Percentile 90: 78
Percentile 95: 175
Percentile 99: 395
Percentile 99.9: 780

R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning

Conditional on the question not being annulled, I agree with the critic’s main directional point: my prior median was a bit too close to zero. I’m moving the distribution moderately more negative, but not fully adopting the critic’s fatter negative tail.

What I accept from the critique

The biggest valid correction is that the current-spread anchor is not a clean number. If using the reported Forge-style secondary marks, the spread is roughly $880B − $1,000B = -$120B; the -$148B figure only follows if one mixes OpenAI’s official $852B primary round with Anthropic’s reported $1T secondary mark. OpenAI’s official March 31 round at $852B post-money is a hard anchor, but the resolver is NPM, not OpenAI’s press release or Forge’s last headline print. (openai.com)

The critic is also right that NPM’s methodology matters a lot. NPM says Tape D/NPM Price is a daily algorithmic estimate using secondary trades, bid/offer history, primary rounds, 409A valuations, mutual-fund marks, and historical Tape D estimates, so a single sensational secondary quote should not be treated as the exact resolution value. (nasdaqprivatemarket.com)

I also accept the argument that an Anthropic financing before August 12 would be especially resolution-relevant. TechCrunch reported that Anthropic had preemptive offers for a very large round around the $850B–$900B valuation range, with a possible $40B–$50B raise; if that closes, it likely hardens an NPM mark near or above OpenAI rather than leaving Anthropic’s $1T-ish secondary valuation as pure scarcity-premium noise. (techcrunch.com)

Finally, I agree that an actual OpenAI IPO before the August 12, 2026 resolution is probably not the base case. Axios says OpenAI may file confidentially shortly, but also describes OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs as likely between Labor Day, September 7, 2026, and Thanksgiving, November 26, 2026, with the normal confidential-filing-to-offering timeline pushing most of the listing probability after this market’s date. (axios.com)

What I still defend

I still do not want to chase the most extreme Anthropic secondary marks too hard. The official Anthropic primary anchor was much lower than $1T, and NPM’s smoothing/multi-signal process should dampen one-off FOMO prints. The reported secondary environment is real evidence, but it is thin-market evidence.

I also keep a meaningful positive tail for OpenAI. Even without an IPO by August 12, a confidential filing, bank syndicate activity, retail-access structures, or tender/pre-IPO demand could move OpenAI’s NPM mark toward $950B–$1T. If Anthropic’s round slips, reprices, or gets treated cautiously by NPM, the spread can compress to zero or turn positive. OpenAI’s official $852B round and reported $2B/month revenue scale remain substantial supports. (openai.com)

Updated view

My median moves from -$105B to about -$125B. I now put about 80% probability on Anthropic being valued higher than OpenAI on the resolving NPM/public-market basis, up from roughly 75%. I put around 10–12% on a spread below -$300B, and around 10% on a clearly positive OpenAI-led outcome above +$100B.

The modal story is: no completed IPO before August 12; Anthropic’s high secondary/financing momentum gets partly incorporated by NPM; OpenAI gets some IPO-expectation uplift but not enough to overtake. That gives a central range around -$75B to -$200B, with the median near -$125B.

Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: -800
Percentile 1: -600
Percentile 5: -405
Percentile 10: -305
Percentile 20: -232
Percentile 30: -185
Percentile 40: -153
Percentile 50: -125
Percentile 60: -91
Percentile 70: -51
Percentile 80: -2
Percentile 90: 115
Percentile 95: 245
Percentile 99: 525
Percentile 99.9: 900

R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning

Conditioning on no annulment / no invalidation.

I think the critic’s Round 4 objection is persuasive enough to move me slightly more negative again. The most important correction is that I was still giving a little too much weight to OpenAI-positive compression within only ~84 days. The resolution source is not a deep public-market close; NPM’s Tape D framework incorporates multiple slower-moving signals, including secondary trades, bid/offer indications, primary rounds, 409A valuations, mutual-fund marks, and prior evaluated prices. That makes the supplied current spread near -$114B an unusually strong anchor. (nasdaqprivatemarket.com)

The critic is also right that OpenAI’s official $852B post-money primary round is a support level, but not enough by itself to erase the gap: if OpenAI is currently around $822B, reverting to $852B only narrows the spread by about $30B, not the full $114B needed to reach parity. (openai.com) Anthropic’s reported secondary valuation near $1T, versus OpenAI around $880B on Forge, is frothy and fragile, but fragility does not imply it breaks before August 12; scarce-float secondary marks can persist long enough to matter for this market. (finance.yahoo.com)

I still want to defend the positive tail. OpenAI has the more immediate IPO-process catalyst: Axios reports OpenAI is working on a confidential IPO prospectus, while still framing the likely public-listing window as later in 2026, mostly after this resolution date. (axios.com) A filing, tender, or public-market-cap mechanism could produce a large positive spread. But I now think this should affect mostly the upper tail, not the upper-middle as much as my prior distribution implied.

My updated view:

• Median should sit almost exactly on the current spread: around -$116B.
• P(OpenAI − Anthropic < 0) should be about 77%, not 75–76%.
• The 80th and 90th percentiles should come down modestly.
• Extreme tails remain wide because either company could have a hard repricing event, IPO, tender, or NPM methodology/share-count discontinuity.

Updated prediction:

Percentile 0.1: -910.000
Percentile 1: -635.000
Percentile 5: -390.000
Percentile 10: -298.000
Percentile 20: -225.000
Percentile 30: -183.000
Percentile 40: -149.000
Percentile 50: -116.000
Percentile 60: -85.000
Percentile 70: -46.000
Percentile 80: 18.000
Percentile 90: 150.000
Percentile 95: 290.000
Percentile 99: 660.000
Percentile 99.9: 1100.000

Agent Forecast (numeric, confidence: medium)

• -300-0: 53.0%
• Below -300: 12.0%
• 0-50: 10.0%
• 50-100: 8.0%
• 100-150: 6.0%

Base Rate: Polymarket (using NPM as resolution source) gives Anthropic an 83% probability of having a higher NPM valuation than OpenAI on June 30, 2026 — the most directly analogous market. Current NPM data: OpenAI $821.79B, Anthropic $936.23B (spread -$114B). The historical 7-week swing from +$380B (March 31) to -$114B (May 20) demonstrates extreme volatility, supporting moderately wide tails but not symmetric distribution given the strong directional momentum.

Initial Reasoning:

• Trajectory 1 reasoning

  The current NPM spread as of May 19-20, 2026 is approximately -$114B (Anthropic leads OpenAI).
• This is a dramatic reversal from March 31 when OpenAI led by +$380B — a $494B swing in ~7 weeks.
• The primary driver of Anthropic’s surge is: (1) explosive revenue growth from $9B ARR (end-2025) to $30B ARR (March 2026), driven by Claude Code enterprise adoption; (2) a frenzy of secondary market demand with supply-demand imbalance; and (3) the impending $950B+ funding round expected to close by end of May 2026 (NYT, May 12, 2026).
• For August 12, the central case is that Anthropic closes its new round (NPM reflects ~$950B-$1.05T), while OpenAI remains in IPO preparation mode (targeting September 2026) with modest NPM growth to ~$860-900B, keeping the spread in the -$100B to -$200B range.
• The 17% allocation to ‘Below -300’ reflects a scenario where Anthropic’s NPM surges past $1.2T+ via secondary market momentum after the round close while OpenAI stays ~$870-900B.
• The 26% combined positive-spread probability reflects scenarios where OpenAI surges via pre-IPO secondary demand, an early IPO filing, or Anthropic corrects from its speculative froth levels.

Trajectory 2 reasoning

Current NPM data (via Polymarket using NPM as resolution source) shows OpenAI at $821.79B and Anthropic at $936.23B as of ~May 19-20, 2026 — a spread of approximately -$114B.

• Anthropic’s ~$950B round (FT confirmed terms, expected close by end of May 2026) will further increase Anthropic’s NPM valuation to ~$950B+.
• OpenAI’s secondary market is tepid (NPM shows $821B, below its $852B primary round), and no new OpenAI primary round is expected before August 12 — the company is targeting a Q4 2026 IPO.
• Neither company is expected to IPO before August 12.
• The 85-day horizon to resolution creates some uncertainty: ~18% probability OpenAI raises a new round at $1T+ creating a positive spread, and ~10% probability Anthropic’s NPM valuation surges to $1.12T+ pushing the spread below -$

Key Uncertainties:

• Whether OpenAI executes a primary or strategic secondary bridge round before August 12 at $1T+ valuation (the main upside-spread scenario)
• How NPM weights Anthropic’s $930B primary round close against its already-elevated secondary market trading (Forge showed ~$1T on Apr 23)
• Whether a broader AI/tech valuation correction between May and August compresses both NPM prices (symmetric risk noted by reviewer)
• Whether the resolver’s August 12 check captures August 11 trading data (post-1PM ET) or August 10 data, which could shift the spread by tens of billions on a volatile day
• Whether either company unexpectedly IPOs before August 12, which would trigger the highest-intraday-price methodology and could substantially change the resolution math

Evidence Sources (21):

• Polymarket - Will OpenAI’s valuation hit __ by December 31
• Polymarket - Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31
• Nasdaq Private Market - Secondary Scene 2026 Outlook
• Anthropic - Series G funding announcement
• New York Times - Anthropic in Talks to Raise Funding at a $950 Billion Valuation
• Polymarket - Anthropic vs OpenAI higher valuation on June 30
• TNW - Anthropic hits $1 trillion valuation on secondary markets
• Economic Times - OpenAI IPO filing could come before SpaceX
• Business Insider - Anthropic surged to a trillion-dollar valuation on secondary markets
• Nasdaq Private Market - Anthropic company page
• Nasdaq Private Market - OpenAI company page
• OpenAI closes funding round at an $852 billion valuation - CNBC
• Anthropic agrees terms of $30bn funding deal at $900bn valuation - FT
• Anthropic’s $900 Billion Funding Round Set To Surpass OpenAI - Forbes
• SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic: Here are the most anticipated IPOs in 2026 - Yahoo Finance
• Polymarket launches private company trading - CNBC
• Yahoo Finance / Quartz – Anthropic closes in on $30 billion fundraising round
• CNBC – OpenAI reportedly missed revenue targets
• Yahoo Finance – Anthropic targets $900 billion valuation in massive new funding round
• Nasdaq Private Market – YTD Roundup (May 5, 2026)
• TechCrunch – Anthropic potential $900B+ valuation round could happen within 2 weeks

Grounding Facts (passed to reviewers):

1. OpenAI’s Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) valuation as of approximately

Draft: -300-0: 57.0%, Below -300: 13.0%, 0-50: 9.3%, 50-100: 6.3%, 100-150: 4.7%

Reviewer Panel:

Reviewer (reasoning)

The draft forecast leans heavily on a single narrative of Anthropic’s imminent round closing and OpenAI’s perceived inactivity, without sufficiently accounting for the notorious volatility and illiquidity of private secondary markets or the strong base rate stability of mega-valuations ahead of IPOs. It also underweights the near-term risk of a broader tech valuation correction that could compress both firms’ NPM prices. As a result, the distribution may be overly concentrated on the negative-spread scenario and underestimates symmetric tail risks.

Objections:

• Overreliance on short-term NPM swings: private secondary valuations for large unicorns often revert by 5–15% over a quarter, a base rate ignored here.
• Neglected macro downside: no scenario accounts for a sector-wide valuation pullback (e.g., US tech correction) that could shrink both firms’ private valuations and alter the spread.
• Underestimated OpenAI secondary liquidity: the forecast assumes no intermediate funding or strong investor appetite, but OpenAI’s high-profile partnerships (e.g., with major cloud providers) could trigger fresh secondary demand before August.

Reviewer (calibration)

The forecast heavily relies on the assumption that Anthropic’s primary funding round valuation will directly translate to or even be exceeded by its Nasdaq Private Market valuation, potentially underestimating the volatility and potential for correction in secondary markets, especially given the ‘speculative froth’ acknowledged. It also might be too quick to dismiss a potential rebound or pre-IPO surge for OpenAI, despite its current secondary market softness. The dramatic recent valuation swing, while noted, might not be sustainable at the projected rate.

Objections:

• The forecast assumes a near-direct translation of Anthropic’s primary funding round valuation (e.g., $930B post-money) to its Nasdaq Private Market valuation, potentially overlooking the typical discount or premium dynamics of secondary markets, especially for a company described as having ‘speculative froth levels.’
• The forecast may underestimate the potential for a rebound in OpenAI’s secondary market valuation, or the possibility of a strategic pre-IPO funding round at a higher valuation, given the dynamic nature of the AI market and OpenAI’s strong brand, despite its recent $122B raise.
• The projection of continued rapid valuation growth for Anthropic, following a dramatic $494B swing in 7 weeks, might not adequately account for the possibility of market stabilization or a correction in secondary market exuberance.

Reviewer (fact-checker)

1 factual error(s). 8 unsupported claim(s). Verdict: minor_issues

Unsupported claims:

• For August 12, the central case is that Anthropic closes its new round (NPM reflects ~$950B-$1.05T), while OpenAI remains in IPO preparation mode (targeting September 2026) with modest NPM growth to ~$860-900B, keeping the spread in the -$100B to -$200B range.
• The 17% allocation to ‘Below -300’ reflects a scenario where Anthropic’s NPM surges past $1.2T+ via secondary market momentum after the round close while OpenAI stays ~$870-900B.
• The 26% combined positive-spread probability reflects scenarios where OpenAI surges via pre-IPO secondary demand, an early IPO filing, or Anthropic corrects from its speculative froth levels.
• ~18% probability OpenAI raises a new round at $1T+ creating a positive spread, and ~10% probability Anthropic’s NPM valuation surges to $1.12T+ pushing the spread below -$300B.
• The modal outcome (~59%) is a spread in the -$50B to -$250B range (firmly in the ‘-300 to 0’ bin).
• The central case: after Anthropic’s round closes at ~$930B+ post-money, NPM will anchor Anthropic above OpenAI ($821B), making the spread (OpenAI − Anthropic) negative — likely in the -$50B to -$250B range, firmly in the -300 to 0 bin.
• The 12% ‘Below -300’ mass reflects Anthropic’s continued secondary appreciation toward $1.1T+ as its October IPO approaches while OpenAI stays flat.
• The ~25% right-tail mass (0 to Above 300) reflects the non-trivial possibility that OpenAI secures a pre-IPO round at ~$1T before August 12, flipping the spread positive.

Objections:

• [moderate] Anthropic’s revenue run rate has surged from $9B (end-2025) to ~$40-45B annualized — Corpus says: Corpus states Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reached $30 billion by March 2026 (and $14B at Feb 2026 round close)

Adjustment Rationale:

Adjusted the draft to widen tails modestly in response to reviewer calibration concerns. Specifically: (1) reduced the modal ‘-300-0’ bin from 55-59% to 53% to reflect reviewer-flagged volatility and the possibility of mean reversion in Anthropic’s secondary-market froth; (2) increased positive-spread bins slightly (0-50: 0.10, 50-100: 0.08) to acknowledge the reviewer point about OpenAI secondary-liquidity rebound potential from major cloud partnership news or a possible pre-IPO bridge; (3) bumped ‘Above 300’ from 0.01 to 0.02 to allow for a tail scenario where OpenAI announces a $1T+ pre-IPO round while Anthropic’s primary round delays/repricing occurs; (4) kept ‘Below -300’ at 0.12, reflecting that Anthropic’s path to $1.2T+ requires continued secondary appreciation beyond the imminent primary anchor. Corrected the draft’s overstated Anthropic revenue figure — corpus confirms $30B ARR (March 2026), not $40-45B; this doesn’t change directional conclusions but is worth noting. Maintained the central thesis: current NPM data shows a -$114B spread (Anthropic leads), Anthropic’s ~$930B round closes by end of May, OpenAI raised $122B only 4 months ago and is unlikely to do another major primary before its Q3-Q4 IPO target. The 83% Polymarket probability for Anthropic-leads-on-June-30 anchors the directional view strongly.

forecast_sdk | 596.7s | research $2.2648 + reviewers $0.0091 + reconcile $0.2303 = $2.5236

Extracted Percentile Values: {0.1: -500.0, 1.0: -380.0, 5.0: -300.0, 10.0: -250.0, 15.0: -220.0, 20.0: -200.0, 25.0: -185.0, 30.0: -170.0, 35.0: -160.0, 40.0: -152.0, 45.0: -145.0, 46.0: -143.0, 47.0: -141.0, 48.0: -139.0, 49.0: -137.0, 50.0: -135.0, 51.0: -133.0, 52.0: -131.0, 53.0: -128.0, 54.0: -125.0, 55.0: -122.0, 60.0: -112.0, 65.0: -100.0, 70.0: -85.0, 75.0: -65.0, 80.0: -40.0, 85.0: -10.0, 90.0: 25.0, 95.0: 80.0, 99.0: 180.0, 99.9: 300.0}

Model’s Answer:

Forecasting the Nasdaq Private Market Valuation Spread: OpenAI vs Anthropic

Current State Analysis

Based on the most authoritative data sources (Nasdaq Private Market via SecondMarket), the current state as of mid-May 2026 shows:

• OpenAI: $811.131 billion (May 18, 2026)
• Anthropic: $936.232 billion (May 19, 2026)
• Current Spread: Approximately -$125 billion (OpenAI minus Anthropic)

This represents a significant shift from historical patterns where OpenAI typically held the valuation lead. The research indicates conflicting data points with some sources showing slightly different figures ($823.751B for OpenAI and $987.428B for Anthropic), suggesting the spread may currently range from -$125B to -$165B.

Key Drivers and Trends

Recent Momentum: Anthropic has demonstrated exceptional growth, rising from $380B (February 2026 Series G) to over $900B on NPM. OpenAI, despite closing a record $122B round at $852B valuation in March 2026, has seen its NPM valuation moderate to approximately $811B.

IPO Timing: This is the most critical variable. Research indicates:

• Anthropic submitted a confidential S-1 draft on May 15, 2026
• Polymarket assigns 78% probability to Anthropic IPO before August 12, 2026
• Goldman Sachs targets $1.3 trillion IPO valuation for Anthropic
• If Anthropic IPOs, the resolution methodology shifts to public market capitalization

Market Dynamics: SoftBank has been selling OpenAI shares, while Anthropic’s May 2026 tender offer saw Amazon purchase $2.8B in shares, supporting Anthropic’s valuation.

Scenario Analysis

Base Case (~55% probability): Neither company IPOs before August 12, or Anthropic IPOs at roughly current valuation levels. Spread remains between -$100B and -$200B.

Anthropic IPO at Premium (~30% probability): Anthropic IPOs at $1.1T-$1.3T while OpenAI remains private at ~$800B. Spread widens to -$250B to -$450B.

Convergence Scenario (~12% probability): OpenAI announces major funding, positive news, or Anthropic faces setbacks. Spread narrows to -$50B to +$50B.

Reversal (~3% probability): Major positive developments for OpenAI or negative for Anthropic. Spread becomes positive.

Critical Assumptions to Stress-Test

Assumption 1: Anthropic’s IPO, if it occurs, will price at or above current private valuation (85% confidence). If wrong, the spread could narrow significantly rather than widen.

Assumption 2: OpenAI maintains stable valuation without major negative events (80% confidence). If Microsoft acquisition talks result in a lower anchor valuation, the spread could widen further.

Assumption 3: NPM continues operating and publishing data normally (98% confidence). Failure would trigger alternative resolution methodology.

Distribution Rationale

Why Low Outcomes (More Negative): Anthropic IPOs at $1.2T+ while OpenAI remains at ~$800B, creating spreads of -$300B to -$450B. This aligns with the 78% IPO probability and Goldman’s $1.3T target.

Why High Outcomes (Less Negative/Positive): Market volatility, mean reversion, OpenAI positive catalysts, or Anthropic setbacks could narrow the spread. Historical patterns show private market valuations can be volatile.

Given approximately 84 days until resolution, significant movement is plausible but bounded by the anchor of recent primary rounds. The distribution is skewed negative (favoring Anthropic) given current momentum and IPO timing expectations, but with meaningful probability assigned to convergence scenarios.

The median estimate centers around -$135B to -$140B, reflecting a modest continuation of current trends without dramatic shifts. The left tail (more negative) receives more weight than the right tail given the IPO timing dynamics and Anthropic’s momentum.

Percentile .1: -500.000 Percentile 1: -380.000 Percentile 5: -300.000 Percentile 10: -250.000 Percentile 15: -220.000 Percentile 20: -200.000 Percentile 25: -185.000 Percentile 30: -170.000 Percentile 35: -160.000 Percentile 40: -152.000 Percentile 45: -145.000 Percentile 46: -143.000 Percentile 47: -141.000 Percentile 48: -139.000 Percentile 49: -137.000 Percentile 50: -135.000 Percentile 51: -133.000 Percentile 52: -131.000 Percentile 53: -128.000 Percentile 54: -125.000 Percentile 55: -122.000 Percentile 60: -112.000 Percentile 65: -100.000 Percentile 70: -85.000 Percentile 75: -65.000 Percentile 80: -40.000 Percentile 85: -10.000 Percentile 90: 25.000 Percentile 95: 80.000 Percentile 99: 180.000 Percentile 99.9: 300.000

TL;DR

I forecast OpenAI minus Anthropic at +$35 billion on August 12, with median +$22 billion and a 43% chance that Anthropic is higher.

Context

This resolves on Nasdaq Private Market and SecondMarket valuation data, not on the last headline primary rounds. NPM says its NPM Price is a daily estimate for 500+ liquid private companies, built from six signals: secondary trades, bid and offer history, primary-round prices, 409A valuations, mutual fund marks, and historical NPM estimates (NPM Data & Intelligence). The public NPM pages show share prices, not the exact valuation field in the SecondMarket links: OpenAI was $666.20 per share as of May 6, 2026, and Anthropic was $492.31 per share as of May 6, 2026 (NPM OpenAI, NPM Anthropic).

The clean official anchors still put OpenAI ahead: OpenAI closed $122 billion of committed capital at an $852 billion post-money valuation on March 31, 2026, while Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation on February 12, 2026 (OpenAI, Anthropic). The market-moving development is that Anthropic was later reported to have agreed terms for a $30 billion round at about a $900 billion valuation, while OpenAI was reported on May 20, 2026 to be preparing a confidential IPO filing with a possible September listing (Investing.com / FT, Reuters via Investing.com).

Evidence

The historical base rate is simple: these marks move in cliffs, not smooth daily steps. Large primary rounds, tender offers, issuer-approved secondaries, and IPO filings can move the spread by hundreds of billions in one quarter. The full comparable valuation history I used is below; I collapse same-date preferred tranches into one milestone when they share the same post-money valuation.

The operating data explain why the old +$472 billion primary-round spread is stale. OpenAI said on March 31, 2026 that it was generating $2 billion of revenue per month, had more than 900 million weekly active ChatGPT users, and had more than 50 million subscribers (OpenAI). Anthropic said on February 12, 2026 that it had $14 billion of run-rate revenue, then said on April 6, 2026 that run-rate revenue had passed $30 billion and that customers spending more than $1 million annually had doubled to more than 1,000 in less than two months (Anthropic Series G, Anthropic compute update). The reported May round is not an isolated rumor; it fits the revenue story and the need to fund long-term compute.

The best current NPM-specific clue is the public share price bridge. Using OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation and $687.69 round price from Forge gives about 1.239 billion implied shares; multiplying that by NPM’s $666.20 May 6 share price gives an approximate NPM-visible OpenAI mark near $825 billion (Forge OpenAI, NPM OpenAI). Using Yahoo/Forge’s Anthropic $264.57 Forge Price and $387.97 billion estimated valuation gives about 1.467 billion implied shares; multiplying that by NPM’s $492.31 May 6 share price gives an approximate NPM-visible Anthropic mark near $722 billion (Yahoo Finance ANTH.PVT, NPM Anthropic). This is an inference, not the gated resolver field, but it says the NPM public mark had already narrowed the spread to roughly +$100 billion before the reported $900 billion Anthropic deal was fully reflected.

My distribution is a five-state mixture over the spread S = OpenAI valuation minus Anthropic valuation, in billions of nominal USD. I put 50% on Anthropic’s new round being reflected near $900 billion while OpenAI sits near $900 billion, centered at +5 with an $80 billion standard deviation. I put 20% on Anthropic being marked hot, or OpenAI being marked weak, centered at -125 with a $90 billion standard deviation. I put 17% on OpenAI’s IPO process lifting its mark faster than Anthropic’s round lifts Anthropic, centered at +150 with a $95 billion standard deviation. I put 9% on Anthropic’s round closing lower, partially, or with NPM lag, centered at +200 with a $100 billion standard deviation. I put 4% on a stale or failed Anthropic re-mark, centered at +360 with a $120 billion standard deviation. This gives a mean of +$35 billion, a median of +$22 billion, a 10th-90th percentile range of -$143 billion to +$234 billion, a 5th-95th percentile range of -$191 billion to +$303 billion, 43% probability that the spread is negative, 0.5% probability below -$300 billion, and 5.2% probability above +$300 billion.

What’s non-obvious

The obvious calculation is $852 billion minus $380 billion, or +$472 billion. That is not the right center. NPM’s own visible prices already imply that Anthropic was being marked far above its February primary valuation by May 6, 2026, while OpenAI’s visible NPM price was slightly below its March preferred-round price (NPM OpenAI, NPM Anthropic). The August answer is mostly a question of how much of the reported Anthropic $900 billion financing NPM recognizes by then, not whether the February primary spread remains intact.

The trillion-dollar Anthropic secondary headlines are also not the same as the resolver. Yahoo summarized reports that secondary platforms implied about a $1 trillion Anthropic valuation and about $880 billion for OpenAI, but Anthropic also warned that unauthorized stock transfers are void, and OpenAI issued a similar restriction warning for its equity (Yahoo Finance, TechCrunch on Anthropic transfer warning, OpenAI policy). I read those secondary prints as real demand signals, not as clean valuation marks. That is why my center is near parity, not Anthropic ahead by $100 billion or OpenAI ahead by $400 billion.

Limitations

I could not access the gated SecondMarket valuation fields named in the resolution. The public NPM pages expose share prices, update dates, and some funding rows, but not the full valuation time series or the cap-table bridge used by the resolver (NPM OpenAI, NPM Anthropic). The share-count bridge uses Forge and Yahoo/Forge data, and it may not match NPM’s preferred-share class, fully diluted share count, or waterfall assumptions.

The largest unresolved factual risk is Anthropic’s May financing. Reports say terms were agreed for about $30 billion at a $900 billion valuation and could close as soon as May, but the final structure could still change before announcement (Investing.com / FT). The second risk is OpenAI’s IPO timing. Reuters reported an IPO as early as September 2026, while Axios said OpenAI and Anthropic were likely targeting windows between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, which mostly falls after the August 12 resolution date (Reuters via Investing.com, Axios). A surprise pre-August listing, a delayed Anthropic round, or an NPM methodology choice that weights issuer-approved transfers much more heavily than broad secondary indications would move the answer by hundreds of billions.

Forecast: OpenAI minus Anthropic NPM Spread on August 12, 2026

Median: −$84B (Anthropic leads by ~$84 billion)

Rationale

• Current spread is −$114B, but likely to narrow. OpenAI’s pending S-1 filing at ~$1 trillion implied valuation (potentially as early as May 22) is the dominant catalyst. If filed before August 12, it would anchor OpenAI’s NPM significantly higher, compressing the gap by $50–100B. This is weighted at ~30% probability within the 83-day window.

• Anthropic’s $30B round is mostly priced in. The pending round at ~$900B pre-money would close near or below Anthropic’s current NPM of $936B, limiting upside movement. Closure is likely but won’t materially widen the spread.

• Secondary market divergence creates uncertainty. NPM’s Anthropic model price ($477/share) was ~2x actual trades ($234/share) as of early May—a gap that may correct in either direction, introducing noise into both valuations.

• Prediction markets suggest ~72% probability Anthropic still leads by August 12, declining from 83% on June 30. This implies meaningful probability of narrowing but not reversal.

• An OpenAI IPO before August 12 is possible but unlikely (~10–15% given September target), which would trigger public market cap methodology and could flip the spread positive. This tail risk pulls the median rightward from the status-quo level.

• DOD litigation favorable ruling for Anthropic (judge called government actions “spectacular overreach”) could provide modest upside, but is already partially reflected in current NPM.

The forecast reflects a spread that remains negative but narrows from today’s −$114B, anchored by OpenAI’s IPO filing catalyst and Anthropic’s round closure at or below

Forecast (percentiles, aggregated):

• p10: -240.0
• p25: -160.0
• p50: -105.0
• p75: -40.0
• p90: 55.0

Per-model forecasts:

• 1: p10=-250, p25=-170, p50=-110, p75=-40, p90=50
• 2: p10=-280, p25=-150, p50=-50, p75=60, p90=200
• 3: p10=-220, p25=-160, p50=-100, p75=-30, p90=50

Rationale: Summary The valuation spread between OpenAI and Anthropic is currently in negative territory, driven by a recent surge in Anthropic’s valuation on secondary markets. As of May 2026, Nasdaq Private Market data places OpenAI at approximately $822 billion and Anthropic at around $936 billion, resulting in a baseline spread of roughly -$114 billion. This negative spread is corroborated by other secondary platforms, where Anthropic has briefly touched the $1 trillion mark while OpenAI trades between $850 billion and $880 billion. The median estimate of -$105 billion assumes that this current pricing structure will largely hold over the relatively short three-month horizon to the August 12 deadline. While both companies are considered prime candidates for initial public offerings, standard regulatory and logistical timelines make a public listing highly improbable before mid-August. Thus, the assessment anchors heavily on existing private market momentum, which currently favors Anthropic due to rumors of a substantial new funding round, balanced against the potential for an OpenAI counter-rally.

Strongest Arguments for Higher Values

• OpenAI could announce a major new primary funding round at or near a $1 trillion valuation before the deadline, quickly erasing Anthropic’s lead.
• The current intense secondary market demand for Anthropic shares could correct downward, narrowing the spread closer to zero or pushing it positive.
• Market sentiment might pivot back to OpenAI following significant product catalysts, technological breakthroughs, or accelerated preparations for a late 2026 IPO that boost its secondary market appeal.

Strongest Arguments for Lower Values

• Anthropic is reportedly in talks to close a $30 billion funding round at a $900 billion to $950 billion pre-money valuation by the end of May 2026, which would cement its secondary market lead.
• Secondary market demand for OpenAI has reportedly been softening relative to Anthropic; if this trend accelerates, OpenAI’s valuation could drift downward while Anthropic continues to climb past $1 trillion.
• If Anthropic achieves unexpected technical milestones or further commercial traction, its secondary market valuation could surge well beyond current levels, driving the spread deeper into negative territory.

Key Uncertainties

• Volatility of secondary markets: Private AI company valuations are experiencing extreme volatility, and a few large secondary transactions can dramatically shift Nasdaq Private Market estimates.
• Improbable but impactful IPO events: If either company pursues an accelerated direct listing or IPO before August 12, public market capitalization would dictate the resolution, introducing drastic swings into the spread.
• Timing of funding announcements: The precise timing and confirmed valuations of rumored primary funding rounds remain unverified and could materialize on either side of the August 12 deadline.