On what date, if any, will the PX index of the Prague Stock Exchange first close at or above 2,650.00 points after this question is published?

• My median prediction for the PX index to first close at or above 2,650.00 points is 3rd September 2026.
• The index is currently approximately 5.1% below the target threshold, having recently closed as low as 2,522.23 on 10th June 2026.
• Robust earnings from major constituents like Erste Group and Komerční banka provide a strong fundamental floor for a price recovery.
• Speculation surrounding the restructuring and potential nationalization of ČEZ Group (22.67% weight) remains a major volatility catalyst.
• Macroeconomic indicators are generally supportive, with inflation at 2.1% and a forecasted GDP growth of 2.0% for 2026.
• The forecast anticipates a return to the price levels seen in April 2026 over the next 3 to 4 months as summer economic data is released.

Key figures

Historical context

• The PX index reached an all-time high of 1,936 points in 2007, but structural shifts and the 2026 energy/financial rally pushed it toward a new historical regime.
• In early 2026, the index surged, hitting 2,804.83 points on 4th February 2026.
• The index successfully closed above the 2,650.00 threshold on 10th April 2026 (2,650.79) and 17th April 2026 (2,699.60).
• Historical volatility was evidenced by a sharp 3.7% drop in the week ending 24th April 2026, highlighting the index’s sensitivity to dividend dates and regional geopolitical tensions.
• The Czech Republic maintained a stable repo rate of 3.5% for most of late 2025 and early 2026.

Tailwinds

• Strong corporate earnings, including a 315% EPS surprise from Komerční banka in Q1 2026.
• ČEZ Group’s raised 2026 guidance and its stock’s consistent upward Simple Moving Average (SMA) trend since late April.
• Continued resilience in the Czech banking sector with high capitalization levels confirmed by recent stress tests.
• Real GDP growth following a period of stagnation, providing a supportive backdrop for nominal equity gains.
• Potential buyout premiums for ČEZ shareholders if the government proceeds with full nationalization or restructuring.

Headwinds

• Recent technical pressure from banking stocks trading ex-dividend has removed a near-term price cushion.
• Uncertainty regarding the Czech National Bank’s June 18th meeting, with a 50-50 split between holding rates and a 25-basis point hike.
• Declining economic sentiment in May 2026, which reached a 10-month low of 99.7.
• Potential energy price volatility and geopolitical risks linked to conflicts in the Middle East affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

Detailed reasoning

My analysis indicates that the Prague Stock Exchange’s PX index is currently in a period of consolidation after reaching significantly higher levels earlier in 2026. As of 10th June 2026, the index closed at approximately 2,522.23 points. This puts it about 5.1% below the 2,650.00 target. Historical data confirms that the index reached a year-to-date high of 2,804.83 on 4th February 2026 and held official closing values above 2,650.00 as recently as 17th April 2026 (2,699.60). This suggests that the 2,650 level is not an extreme outlier but a reachable benchmark within the current market regime.

The index’s performance is heavily concentrated in four companies—ČEZ Group, Erste Group Bank, Komerční banka, and Moneta Money Bank—which collectively represent over 70% of the index’s weight. My forecast relies on the fundamental resilience of these entities. While the financial sector faced technical downward pressure in April 2026 due to stocks trading ex-dividend, recent earnings reports have been robust. Erste Group reported an 18.2% increase in net profit for Q1 2026, and Komerční banka showed an EPS of 85.00 CZK, massively beating analyst estimates of 20.44 CZK. Furthermore, ČEZ Group raised its full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance to 107–112 billion CZK, driven by elevated electricity prices and strategic restructuring.

The path to 2,650 points is modeled as a recovery from the recent spring correction. I have weighted the forecast toward the late summer of 2026. This timing allows for the absorption of several key economic signals: the 18th June 2026 and 6th August 2026 Czech National Bank (CNB) interest rate decisions, the final Q1 GDP release on 30th June, and the preliminary Q2 GDP data on 30th July. Given that inflation has stabilized at 2.1% (close to the CNB’s 2% target) and real GDP is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2026, the macroeconomic backdrop is supportive of a return to the early-2026 price range.

I consider a rapid near-term rally (within 30 days) to be less likely (approx. 20-30% probability) compared to a steady recovery over the next 3-4 months. The 5% gap typically requires multiple weeks of positive momentum or a series of significant positive surprises. If the index does not reach the threshold by autumn 2026, there is a risk that seasonal fluctuations or broader European economic slowdowns could delay the event into late 2026 or early 2027. However, the overall probability of the index eventually reaching 2,650 remains high (estimated at 85-90%) based on current fundamentals and nominal equity drift.

Key uncertainties

• The outcome of the 18th June 2026 interest rate decision could lead to immediate index volatility of +/- 2%.
• Sharp structural breaks in reported liabilities for banking constituents (Moneta/Komerční) suggest potential data reporting reclassifications that could affect sentiment.
• The timing of the ČEZ Group restructuring is uncertain and could take up to two years to finalize.
• Global ‘risk-off’ sentiment or a sharp slowdown in the Eurozone could override domestic Czech growth.

Conclusion

• The median forecast for the PX index to close at or above 2,650 points is 3rd September 2026.
• Strategic decisions should account for a roughly 5% gap that can be bridged by typical equity market volatility or positive surprises in the financial and energy sectors.
• Watch for the 18th June 2026 Czech National Bank meeting as a potential early catalyst for the banking stocks that dominate the index.

Question: whether the Prague PX will record a daily close at or above 2,650.00 by the 2026-08-10 cutoff. As of the 2026-06-10 official close the PX was 2,521.15, about 5.1% (≈+128.85 points) below the barrier with roughly 42–43 trading sessions remaining; a driftless first-passage benchmark using plausible daily volatilities (≈0.7–1.0%) yields a crossing likelihood in the ~30–40% range. Forecasters converge around ≈35% probability, noting small changes in assumed daily volatility or short-term drift materially alter chances and that modeling should focus on first-passage events (intraperiod crossings) not only the terminal close. Important downside offsets are the recent post-record pullback regime and persistent sideways-to-soft momentum—historical analogues show the index can linger below thresholds for weeks—while mechanical tailwinds include that major dividend drags (notably ČEZ) appear mostly behind the index. Concentration risk is crucial: ČEZ and the big banks/insurers (Erste, KB, Moneta, VIG) dominate the PX so a synchronized rally in those names is likely required for a crossing. Teams broadly agree on the central probability and timing (conditional mass in July with a long late-window tail) and recommend updating daily using the official PSE close and a weighted banks+ČEZ basket rather than intraday highs or total-return measures.

Forecast and Reasoning

Forecast: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-07-03 03:33:48 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-07-13 20:13:04 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-08-06 04:01:15 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-08-10 12:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-08-10 12:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-08-10 12:00:00 UTC

Forecast Reasoning

We need the first official PX end-of-day close >= 2,650 after publication (2026-06-10T15:25:35Z). Based on one analyst’s credible note about the PSE index calculation window (market close occurs earlier than the publication timestamp), the 2026-06-10 close should be ineligible; the first realistically eligible close is the next trading day. The most recent levels cited cluster around ~2,520–2,550, so the threshold requires roughly a +4% to +5% rise. Over ~2 months this is quite plausible given equity-index volatility, and the index traded well above 2,650 earlier in 2026, but it is far from certain given the recent drawdown from ~2,800 and typical summer liquidity. Synthesizing the analysts, I put the probability of at least one qualifying close occurring by the deadline in the ~40–45% range, with the conditional timing (if it happens) skewed toward mid/late July into early August. Therefore p50 and above are placed strictly past the upper bound to correctly represent the open-after probability mass (the “>2026-08-10T12:00:00Z” resolution).

An amateur forecast is likely to (i) anchor on the earlier-2026 highs and assume a quick return to 2,650, or (ii) ignore the rule mechanics around the publication timestamp / deadline and accidentally place too much mass on ineligible dates. My forecast explicitly accounts for the need for a +4–5% move, the limited number of trading days, and correctly allocates substantial probability to the open-after tail by putting p50+ strictly beyond the bound (rather than clustering at the bound). Confidence in improvement is moderate: the main uncertainty is the true near-term volatility/drift regime and how strictly the cutoff time interacts with an end-of-day close, but the tail-handling and calibration should be better than a naive extrapolation.

Forecast rationale (numeric):

— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is consistent:

• Starting point and required move: PX is assumed to be around 2,521 on 10 June 2026, so it needs only about a 5.1% gain to reach 2,650. That makes the target plausible without needing a major market rally.
• Method: All the rationales use some form of first-passage / volatility-based modeling, focusing on when the index is likely to first close at or above the threshold.
• Near-term outlook: There is a meaningful but far from certain chance of hitting the level before the early-August cutoff discussed in the rationales. The implied probability varies, but the shared view is that the event is possible in the near term, not immediate.
• Timing concentration: If the threshold is reached soon, the most likely window is late July through early August 2026. If not, the expected crossing shifts into late 2026 or early 2027.
• Why not sooner / why uncertainty remains: A recent downward trend reduces confidence in an immediate breakout, even though the move needed is modest.
• Why it may still happen eventually: The index had traded well above 2,650 earlier in 2026 (around 2,805), which supports the view that the level is reachable again barring a deeper downturn.
• Long-tail risk: All models allow for a long right tail, meaning a prolonged bear market or structural weakness could delay the first qualifying close for years.

Overall consensus: the PX is viewed as more likely than not to reach 2,650 eventually, with the main disagreement being whether that happens before the August window, in late 2026, or only in early 2027 and beyond.

— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the main shared view is that the PX index is close enough to 2,650 for a retest to be plausible, but not so close that the timing is highly certain. From the June 10, 2026 level around 2,521, the index needs roughly a 5.1% gain, which is modest in absolute terms, yet the recent pullback and weaker near-term momentum make an immediate break above the threshold uncertain.

Key factors cited repeatedly:

• Distance to target is manageable: A move of about 5% is not large for an equity index, so a qualifying close is seen as realistic.
• Recent weakness cuts against a near-term hit: The index has recently been below the threshold and traders note a downtrend / elevated volatility, reducing confidence in an imminent break.
• Historical context supports eventual success: Since PX traded above 2,650 earlier this year, several rationales treat a future return above that level as likely over a longer horizon.
• Seasonal and structural pressure matters: Summer ex-dividend effects on a price index like PX could weigh on the level and delay the first qualifying close.
• Timing is highly path-dependent: Because only official closes count, the exact date depends heavily on market swings and whether the index retests quickly or enters a broader correction.

Overall, there is broad agreement that 2,650 is reachable, but disagreement on when. One view places the most likely first close just after the August 10 window, another sees a meaningful but sub-50% chance of reaching it before then, and another expects a median timeframe of several months. The combined picture is: a plausible near-term retest, but with meaningful risk that the first qualifying close comes later—potentially weeks to months after publication.

— Iteration 3 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is that the PX index is relatively close to the 2,650 threshold: from around 2,521 on June 10, it needs only about a 5.1% gain. That makes the target plausible in a normal rebound, especially since the index already traded above 2,650 earlier in 2026 and reached a year high near 2,804, showing the level is not exceptional.

The main short-term arguments cut both ways:

• Bullish/feasibility factors: PX has enough volatility that a 5% move could happen within weeks, and a recovery from a recent dip could bring it back above the threshold fairly quickly.
• Bearish/timing factors: The index has recently been trending down, and as a price index it faces seasonal dividend drag in the summer, which can suppress gains in June and July.

On timing, there is some disagreement:

• Two forecasts place the most likely resolution around mid-August 2026 or just after the scoring window ends, implying a meaningful but not dominant chance of a near-term hit.
• One forecast is more cautious, putting the median at late November 2026, reflecting a weaker estimate for a summer breakout and a greater chance the move takes several more months.

Overall, the shared view is that 2,650 is reachable but not assured, with the highest concentration of expected outcomes in late summer to late autumn 2026, and with a long tail for much later if market conditions remain weak or a broader correction develops.

Mathematical Feasibility and Dividend Mechanics Forecasters note that the PX index requires an approximate organic gain of 5% from its early June baseline to reach the 2,650 target. Historical volatility models indicate that such a move is mathematically viable over a two-month period. A significant structural advantage during this specific window is the absence of dividend drag. Because the PX is a price-return index, it inherently suffers mechanical declines when constituents go ex-dividend. Fortunately, heavily weighted companies—such as ČEZ, Erste Group, Komerční banka, and Moneta—have already passed their ex-dividend dates. Consequently, summer price appreciation will not be offset by mechanical dividend drops.

Corporate Catalysts for Growth If a successful breakout toward the threshold occurs, consensus indicates it will be driven by corporate earnings. The index is exceptionally top-heavy, relying heavily on the financial and energy sectors. The primary fundamental catalysts are the late-July H1 earnings reports from major banking constituents. Strong net interest margins, combined with positive momentum following the expiration of the windfall tax, could provide the unified thrust necessary to push the index higher. Additionally, ongoing developments or announcements regarding the state restructuring of ČEZ present a notable upside risk.

Seasonal and Macroeconomic Headwinds Despite these bullish drivers, the index faces formidable seasonal and macroeconomic hurdles. Central European equities historically experience a pronounced “summer lull” during July and August. This period is characterized by thin liquidity, corporate holidays, and reduced institutional participation, which often leads to sideways, range-bound price action. Furthermore, restrictive “higher-for-longer” monetary policies from both the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank continue to compress equity valuations. Finally, the index must contend with firm technical resistance levels, requiring robust buying volume—which is traditionally scarce during the summer—to successfully conquer the 2,650 ceiling.

SUMMARY

Question: On what date, if any, will the PX index of the Prague Stock Exchange first close at or above 2,650.00 points after this question is published? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-27 00:00:00 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-07-10 12:00:00 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-08-08 00:00:00 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-10-19 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2027-05-08 12:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2028-03-23 12:00:00 UTC

Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled

Report 1 Summary

Forecasts

Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-25 00:00:00 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-07-08 00:00:00 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-08-10 00:00:00 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-10-15 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2027-02-15 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2027-08-15 00:00:00 UTC

Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-06-29 00:00:00 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-08-06 00:00:00 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-10-23 00:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2027-07-30 00:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2028-10-31 00:00:00 UTC

Research Summary

The research reports that as of June 10, 2026 the PX index closed at 2,521.15, meaning it must gain 128.85 points (+5.11%) to reach 2,650 within the two-month window ending August 10, 2026. Short-term momentum is negative (YTD -5.65%, recent week and month slightly down, June 10 trading range 2,515.99–2,553.03), but medium- and multi‑year performance remain strong (1‑year +23.53%, 2025 +59.06%, 3‑year cumulative +112%), and the index previously traded above 2,650 in February 2026 (all‑time high ~2,804.96). Using a 1‑year annualized volatility of ~17.23% (monthly SD ≈5%), the required 5.11% gain is roughly a one‑standard‑deviation monthly move—statistically plausible though not routine—while recent 1–3 month return patterns and a 10% drawdown from the February peak are used as reference-class context.

The research catalogs economic and market drivers: Czech fundamentals show moderated growth (2026 GDP forecast ~2.5%), inflation ~2.5%, and policy rates around 3.5% with potential CNB pause; index composition is heavily financial (≈74% by ETF data) with major constituents ČEZ, Erste, Moneta, Komerční banka; positive supports include strong banking performance and attractive dividend yields, while negatives include geopolitical risk, an S&P negative outlook on ČEZ, weakened defense stocks, and bearish professional forecasts (Trading Economics projections below the target). No prediction markets were identified for this exact PX question. Overall, the research frames reaching 2,650 within two months as within historical statistical possibility given volatility and past highs but challenged by current negative momentum and some bearish indicators.

Sources cited in the research (as named):

• Prague Stock Exchange / BCPP (PX index data): https://www.pse.cz
• Trading Economics (PX forecasts and data): https://tradingeconomics.com
• Czech National Bank (economic data): https://www.cnb.cz
• S&P Global (ratings/outlook reporting): https://www.spglobal.com
• Prediction‑market platforms searched: Polymarket — https://polymarket.com ; Manifold — https://manifold.markets ; Metaculus — https://www.metaculus.com
• ETF/index data and constituent mentions (ETF provider not specified in research)

RESEARCH

Report 1 Research

Research Summary: Prague Stock Exchange PX Index Forecast (Target: 2,650 Points)

Current Situation (As of June 10, 2026)

The PX index closed at 2,521.15 points on June 10, 2026 [11][12][13], declining 1.09% (-27.72 points) that day [11]. To reach the target of 2,650 points, the index needs to gain 128.85 points or +5.11% within the two-month window ending August 10, 2026.

Recent Performance & Momentum

Short-term trends are negative:

• Year-to-date 2026: -5.65% [13]
• Past week: -0.24% [13]
• Past month: -0.28% to -0.54% [12][13]
• June 10 trading range: 2,515.99 to 2,553.03 points [11]

However, medium-term performance remains strong:

• 1-year return: +23.53% (as of June 9, 2026) [25]
• Annual return: +16.73% [13]

Historical Base Rates & Reference Classes

Prior Achievement of Target Level

The PX index has already traded above 2,650 points in 2026:

• All-time high: 2,804.96 points (February 2026) [12]
• YTD 2026 high: 2,804.83 points [11]
• Current level represents a ~10% decline from the February peak

Historical Volatility & Return Patterns

• Annualized volatility: 17.23% (1-year), 15.68% (3-year) [25]
• Monthly standard deviation: ~5% (17.23% / √12)
• The required 5.11% gain represents approximately 1 standard deviation move
• Recent monthly returns: +2.21% (1-month), +4.05% (3-month) in 2026 [25]
• Maximum 1-year drawdown: -12.24% [25]

Multi-Year Performance Context

• 2025: +59.06% (exceptional year) [25]
• 2024: +25.21% [25]
• 3-year cumulative: +112% [24]
• Prague was the 2nd best-performing developed market through August 2025 [24]

Frequency of 5%+ Moves

Based on 17% annualized volatility, monthly moves of 5%+ are statistically plausible but not routine. The index demonstrated it can achieve such moves, with recent 3-month returns of 4.05% suggesting the target is within historical range.

Economic & Market Context

Czech Economic Fundamentals

• GDP growth forecast: 2.5% for 2026 (downgraded from 2.9%) [18]
• Inflation: 2.5% in April (above 2% target) [18]
• Interest rate: 3.5% (held steady, CNB may pause until August) [18][20]
• Industrial production: +1.5% YoY (below 2.5% long-term average) [20]
• Capacity utilization: 80% vs. 83.7% historical average [20]

Market Drivers & Headwinds

Positive factors:

• Strong banking sector (65.37% of index): Erste, Moneta, Komerční banka showed 37-65% gains in 2025 [24]
• High dividend yield (~5%) making Czech equities attractive [24]
• Relatively cheap valuations globally [24]
• Energy sector (22.71% of index) remains significant [11]

Negative factors:

• Geopolitical uncertainty (Middle East conflicts, oil price volatility) [17][19]
• S&P downgraded CEZ outlook to negative (CEZ is major index component) [16]
• Defense stocks weakened on Ukraine war de-escalation signals [2]
• Current negative momentum across multiple timeframes

Analyst Forecasts

• Trading Economics: Projects 2,512.27 points by end of Q2 2026 (below target) [12]
• Trading Economics 12-month: Expects decline to 2,310.14 points (bearish) [12]

Index Composition

• Financials: 74.41% (per ETF data) [25]
• Utilities: 16.20% [25]
• Major holdings: ČEZ (energy utility), Erste Bank, Moneta Money Bank, Komerční banka [2][24]
• Total market cap: ~CZK 428.48 billion [11]

Prediction Markets & Crowd Wisdom

No prediction markets identified for this specific PX index question. Search attempts found no relevant markets on Polymarket, Manifold, or Metaculus covering Czech equity indices.

Key Quantitative Benchmarks

Reference Class: Recovery from 10% Drawdowns

The index needs to recover approximately half of its 10% decline from February highs. With typical volatility patterns and a 2-month window, such partial recoveries are historically feasible but not guaranteed, especially given current negative momentum and bearish analyst projections.

The confluence of negative near-term momentum, bearish professional forecasts, and economic headwinds suggests reaching 2,650 faces obstacles, though the moderate volatility profile and 2-month timeframe keep it within the realm of statistical possibility.

FORECASTS

R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning

(a) Time left: About 60 days 20 hours from publication to 2026-08-10T12:00:00Z; practically, about 41–42 scheduled PX closes remain, depending on whether the August 10 close is treated as eligible by date. The Prague Stock Exchange is normally open Monday–Friday, with 2026-07-06 listed as a non-business day; official closing/price-list publication is after the close. (pse.cz)

(b) Outside view: A 5.11% rise from the June 10 close is a roughly one-month-standard-deviation move using the research assistant’s ~17% annualized volatility estimate. For a liquid equity index, a 5% upside barrier over ~2 months is plausible but far from automatic; a simple volatility/barrier model gives a rough 35%–45% chance of a qualifying close by the deadline.

(c) Inside view: The PX’s official June 10 value was 2,521.15, down 1.09% on the day, with the day’s high only 2,553.03, so it still needed 128.85 points to reach 2,650. The year high of 2,804.83 shows the level is not structurally out of reach, but the current state is a pullback from that peak. (pse.cz) The index is concentrated in ČEZ, Erste, Komerční banka, Moneta, and VIG, so a coordinated recovery in Czech/Austrian financials and ČEZ could move it quickly, but concentration also increases single-sector downside risk. (pse.cz)

(d) Outcome if nothing changed: If PX stayed near 2,521, it would never close at or above 2,650 during the window, resolving as >2026-08-10.

(e) Outcome if the current trend continued: The recent flat-to-negative trend would also imply no qualifying close by 2026-08-10.

(f) Experts and markets: I found no direct prediction market for this exact threshold. Trading Economics’ model/analyst forecast is below the target, projecting PX around 2,512 by quarter-end and 2,310 in one year, which pushes me lower than the raw-volatility base rate. (tradingeconomics.com) Macro background is mixed rather than clearly bullish: the CNB spring forecast has 2026 GDP growth at 2.5% and inflation at 2.2%, while its analyst survey notes average 2026 GDP expectations lowered to 2.0% amid external/oil-related risks. (cnb.cz)

(g) Unexpected low/earlier scenario: A rapid relief rally in European banks, falling oil/geopolitical risk, or a strong ČEZ-specific catalyst could lift the heavily concentrated PX by 5% in a week or two, producing a late-June close above 2,650.

(h) Unexpected high/later scenario: A broader European risk-off move, renewed energy shock, weak bank earnings, or continued correction from the February high could keep PX below 2,650 through August and push the first later crossing into 2027 or beyond.

Rationale: Anchoring on volatility, the threshold is close enough that I do not treat it as a long shot: the market only needs about +5.1%, and PX has already been well above 2,650 earlier in 2026. But I shade below a neutral-volatility estimate because the starting point is a negative close, recent momentum is not favorable, and the only model/analyst forecast I found is materially below the threshold. Conditional on non-annulment, I put roughly 40%–45% probability on a qualifying close by the cutoff, with the median first-crossing date therefore after the tournament window. Dates after 2026-08-10 below represent the right tail / “greater than cutoff” side of the forecast distribution.

Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-15
Percentile 1: 2026-06-17
Percentile 5: 2026-06-22
Percentile 10: 2026-06-25
Percentile 20: 2026-07-08
Percentile 30: 2026-07-22
Percentile 40: 2026-08-10
Percentile 50: 2026-09-10
Percentile 60: 2026-10-15
Percentile 70: 2026-12-01
Percentile 80: 2027-02-15
Percentile 90: 2027-08-15
Percentile 95: 2028-04-01
Percentile 99: 2030-01-15
Percentile 99.9: 2033-01-01

R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning

Conditional on the question not being annulled.

(a) Time left until outcome is known: 60 days, 20 hours, 34 minutes, 24.733 seconds from publication to 2026-08-10T12:00:00Z. Because the PSE trading day’s close/publication is after 12:00 UTC in summer time, I treat 2026-08-07 as the last practically qualifying official close before the deadline, with 2026-08-10 resolving to the “no qualifying close” outcome if no earlier close qualifies. The PSE is open Monday–Friday except listed non-business days, including 2026-07-06. (pse.cz)

(b) Outside view: A +5.11% rise from the 2026-06-10 close is about a one-month, one-standard-deviation move using the research assistant’s ~17% annualized-volatility estimate. Over roughly 41 eligible trading sessions, a zero-drift diffusion with that volatility gives a ballpark first-passage probability near the mid-40%s; daily-close-only resolution and recent negative momentum reduce that somewhat.

(c) Inside view: The PX officially showed 2,521.15 on 2026-06-10, with a daily high of only 2,553.03, so it needs +128.85 points / +5.11% to close at 2,650.00. The same official page shows a 2026 year high of 2,804.83, so the threshold is not structurally remote; it is a partial recovery from an already-reached level. But the June 10 close was down 1.09% on the day, and the PSE component weights are concentrated in banks/finance and ČEZ/energy, making the forecast sensitive to a few large names. (pse.cz)

(d) Outcome if nothing changed: No qualifying close by the deadline; official resolution would be >2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00.

(e) Outcome if the current trend continued: Also no qualifying close by the deadline, since recent short-term momentum is flat-to-negative and the index would remain well below 2,650.

(f) Expectations of experts and markets: I found no liquid prediction market for this exact event. Trading Economics’ model/analyst expectation is below the target, with its Czech stock-market forecast around 2,512 by end-Q2 and about 2,310 over 12 months, which pushes against a near-term hit. (tradingeconomics.com)

(g) Unexpected low/earlier scenario: A sharp risk-on rally in European banks plus positive ČEZ-specific news or rate-cut expectations lifts the heavy-weight constituents together, producing a 5% rebound within one to two weeks.

(h) Unexpected high/later scenario: European financials and utilities sell off on rates, regulation, energy/geopolitics, or Czech-specific policy risk; the PX remains below 2,650 through August and only revisits it much later, or not for years if a broader bear market develops.

Rationale: I anchor on the outside-view first-passage probability: a 5.11% barrier in a two-month window is plausible but not the base case once we require an official end-of-day close rather than intraday contact. The fact that the PX was above 2,650 earlier in 2026 raises the probability relative to a fresh all-time-high breakout, but the negative short-term tape, concentration risk, and bearish external forecast lower it. My central estimate is roughly a 42% chance of a qualifying official close by the effective deadline, so the median latent first-crossing date is after the tournament cutoff. Dates after 2026-08-10 in the percentiles should be read as the right tail corresponding to the official “greater than cutoff” resolution.

Percentile 0.1: 2026-06-15
Percentile 1: 2026-06-17
Percentile 5: 2026-06-23
Percentile 10: 2026-06-29
Percentile 20: 2026-07-13
Percentile 30: 2026-07-27
Percentile 40: 2026-08-06
Percentile 50: 2026-09-04
Percentile 60: 2026-10-23
Percentile 70: 2027-01-29
Percentile 80: 2027-07-30
Percentile 90: 2028-10-31
Percentile 95: 2030-12-31
Percentile 99: 2038-12-31
Percentile 99.9: 2050-12-30

Forecast — Post 449

Modal: Aug 10, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 (69.0%) • partial_shift • 10m52s

Interpretation

Reading: strict

The resolution criteria are tightly specified: only the official PX price index end-of-day close counts (explicitly excluding intraday values and related indices), the threshold is exact at 2,650.00, and the observation window has a precise UTC cutoff. This leaves very little interpretive latitude, warranting a strict reading.

Time bounds

• observation_window: Official end-of-day PX index closing values from after 2026-06-10T15:25:35Z through 2026-08-10T12:00:00Z
• resolution_date: 2026-08-12

Edge cases identified

1. Distinction between closing value and intraday high: only end-of-day official close counts, not any intraday touch of 2,650.
2. Related indices (PX-TR, PX-GLOB, PX-START) crossing 2,650 do not count — only the base PX price index.
3. The observation window ends at 2026-08-10T12:00:00Z (not the full trading day on Aug 10) — a qualifying close on Aug 10 may or may not be captured depending on whether the official close is posted before noon UTC; European market closes are typically around 16:00 CET (14:00 UTC), so an Aug 10 qualifying close would likely arrive after the noon UTC cutoff and thus NOT count.
4. The ‘no qualifying close’ resolution ‘>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00’ is a special string outcome, not a null/void; the question does have a defined non-date resolution value.
5. The annulment clause (unverifiable precision) is narrow boilerplate; functional non-occurrence resolves to the ‘>date’ string, not annulment.

Research (3/3 variants, shared evidence pool)

Total evidence registered (shared pool): ?

Research Brief

Evidence confidence: medium

Scenario 1: No qualifying close — PX remains below 2,650 through August 7, 2026; resolves as ‘>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00’ [medium evidence]

Conditions favoring

Current level of ~2,523 is 5% below threshold; the index has been in a declining/rangebound trend since peaking at 2,805 in February 2026; CEZ fundamental headwinds (lower electricity prices, EBITDA decline); random-walk p75 of ~2,641 is still below 2,650; conservative hazard models suggest ~19–25% crossing probability; no strong macro catalyst identified

Conditions against

Index was above 2,650 as recently as April 21, 2026 (~7 weeks before question publication); CEZ raised 2026 guidance after Q1; all-time highs were set as recently as February 2026; 43-trading-day window provides substantial time for recovery

Scenario 2: Qualifying close in early-to-mid July 2026 (approximately 15–30 trading days into the window) [medium evidence]

Conditions favoring

The hazard model median wait of ~38.5 trading days (source 27) implies the p25–p50 event range falls in mid-to-late July; index was above 2,650 in late April (~7 weeks prior) showing the level is not structurally out of reach; CEZ raised 2026 guidance (source 29); 5% gap is within a normal recovery trajectory given historical volatility

Conditions against

No strong near-term catalyst identified; CEZ EBITDA headwinds persist; index has been drifting down since February peak; high-end hazard model calibrations may overestimate crossing probability

Scenario 3: Qualifying close very early in the window (within the first ~2 weeks of June 2026) [low evidence]

Conditions favoring

Hazard model p10 of ~6 trading days (source 27); CEZ guidance upgrade could trigger rapid re-rating; if global risk sentiment improves sharply, a fast move of 5% is plausible; index moved +2.6% in a single day historically (source 20)

Conditions against

Current momentum is negative (down 1.02% on June 10); 5% gap requires either sustained multi-day rally or exceptional single-day moves; no specific catalyst announced; recent price action shows consolidation not acceleration

Scenario 4: Qualifying close in late July through August 7, 2026 (the final weeks of the effective window) [medium evidence]

Conditions favoring

If recovery is gradual (~1–2% per month as seen May vs April), the index could reach 2,650 by late July or early August; hazard model p75 event is within the window (source 27); longer window means more chances for a favorable day

Conditions against

Gradual drift at current pace (~10 pts/month) would take ~12 months to close 127-point gap; requires acceleration; macro/structural headwinds (IMF, source 13)

Key uncertainties

• The appropriate hazard/drift rate for the PX index going forward — different calibrations yield 19% to 54% crossing probability, a nearly 3x range
• Whether CEZ’s raised 2026 guidance and Middle East-linked power price recovery translate into sustained positive price momentum for the stock and index
• Global and European risk sentiment over the June–August 2026 period, which could swing the Czech market substantially
• Whether the index’s pullback from 2,805 to 2,523 since February 2026 represents a completed correction or an ongoing downtrend
• The effective last qualifying trading day is August 7, 2026 (not August 10), reducing the window by approximately 3 calendar days — confirmed by PSE close time vs noon UTC cutoff

Forecast variants (3/3)

Variant 0: inside_view (inside_view_v1)

Inside view: causal mechanism analysis

Current state → causal chain:

• PX index at ~2,523 on June 10, 2026 (Trading Economics/Bloomberg, sources 1, 22), 5.0% (~127 points) below the 2,650 threshold.
• The index peaked at 2,804.96 in February 2026, then pulled back significantly, with a YTD low of ~2,019–2,127 (sources 2, 9, 38) before partial recovery to current levels.
• The index was last above 2,650 on April 21, 2026 (closing at 2,656.05, source 11) — approximately 7 weeks before question publication.
• CEZ, the dominant component, has mixed fundamentals: EBITDA down 18% YoY in Q1 but raised FY2026 guidance afterward (sources 14, 29, 32). No clear near-term catalyst is identified.
• The effective last qualifying trading day is August 7, 2026 (not August 10), because PSE closes at 16:28 CET (14:28 UTC) and publishes official closes at 17:15 CET (15:15 UTC) — both after the noon UTC cutoff (source 35, interpretation analysis edge case).

Quantitative anchors (weighted by evidence strength):

• Random-walk model (zero drift, ~0.67–0.8% daily vol, 43 trading days): p75 terminal ≈ 2,641–2,642, meaning 2,650 is just above the 75th percentile → ~20–25% terminal probability. But first-passage probability is higher than terminal. Source 18 (medium strength).
• Survival/hazard model at 0.018/day: P(crossing ≤43 days) ≈ 54%, median wait ~38.5 trading days, p10 ~6 days, p90 ~128 days. Source 27 (medium strength).
• Conservative hazard model at 0.005/day: P(crossing ≤43 days) ≈ 19.4%. Source 21 (medium strength).
• Third calibration (shape 1.2, slight upward): ~37%, p25 ≈ 29 trading days (~mid-July), p50 outside window. Source 23 (medium strength).

Evidence strength weighting and my inside-view synthesis: All three quantitative scenarios (early crossing, mid-window crossing, late-window crossing) carry “medium” strength per the brief’s tags, while the “very early” (2-week) scenario is tagged “low.” The “no qualifying close” scenario is also tagged “medium.”

The wide 19–54% range in crossing probability reflects genuine uncertainty about drift. Given:

1. The current level is 5% below threshold with no identified strong catalyst
2. Recent momentum is negative (down 1.02% on June 10)
3. The index is in a multi-month downtrend from February peaks
4. Conservative models (random walk + 0.005 hazard) cluster around 19–25%
5. The aggressive hazard model (0.018) likely overstates probability by using a calibration inconsistent with the random-walk terminal distribution

My best inside-view estimate for P(qualifying close within window) ≈ 30–35%. I’ll use ~32% as my central “event occurs in window” probability, giving ~68% to the “>2026-08-10” bin (bin_8 through bin_12 collapse into the “>deadline” resolution, but bins 8–12 represent dates AFTER Aug 10 which would resolve as “>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00” — per the resolution rules, these bins should capture the “no qualifying close” outcome).

Wait — I need to re-read the bins. Bins 8–12 extend beyond August 10, 2026, but the resolution criteria say: if no qualifying close by August 10, it resolves as “>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00”. So bins 8–12 effectively represent the “no qualifying close in window” outcome. All the “never happens by Aug 10” mass should go in Aug 10 to Oct 10, 2026 (bin_8) or beyond? No — looking at the bin structure, bins 0–7 cover the June 10 to August 10 window. Bins 8–12 represent dates after Aug 10. Since the question resolves as “>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00” if no qualifying close occurs by then, all “no event” mass should go into the first post-deadline bin, representing the resolution value of “>2026-08-10” (bin_8).

Actually, the bins represent when the first qualifying close would be DATE-wise. Since bins 9–12 are after October 2026, they would only matter if the question resolved as a specific date after Aug 10 — but the resolution criteria say it resolves as “>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00” if no qualifying close by Aug 10. So bins 9–12 would represent the “>Aug 10” resolution string being mapped to those later dates? No — the resolution is either a specific date within the window (bins 0–7) or the special string “>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00”. Since the “no qualifying close” resolution is a specific string (not a future date), all that mass belongs in Aug 10 to Oct 10 (bin_8) as the first bin representing “after the deadline.”

Bin allocation for event-occurs mass (~32%):

• Jun 10–18 (bin_0): Very early crossing. Low strength scenario. Current momentum negative. Maybe 1–2%.
• Jun 18–25 (bin_1): 5 more trading days after bin_0. Still needs ~5% rally from deeply negative momentum. Maybe 2–3%.
• Jun 25–Jul 3 (bin_2): Getting to 15 trading days. Hazard model p10 ≈ 6 days, p25 further out. ~3–4%.
• Jul 3–11 (bin_3): 20–30 trading days. Approaching where hazard model p25 sits. ~5–6%.
• Jul 11–18 (bin_4): Mid-July, around hazard model p25 per source 23 (~29 trading days). ~5–6%.
• Jul 18–26 (bin_5): Approaching hazard model median (~38.5 trading days). ~5–6%.
• Jul 26–Aug 2 (bin_6): Around median, tail end of most likely first-crossing zone. ~4–5%.
• Aug 2–7, effective last day (bin_7): Final stretch. ~3–4%.

Total event mass: ~28–32%. Remainder to ~68–72% (bin_8).

Let me normalize:

• bin_0: 0.02
• bin_1: 0.03
• bin_2: 0.04
• bin_3: 0.05
• bin_4: 0.06
• bin_5: 0.06
• bin_6: 0.05
• bin_7: 0.03
• bin_8: 0.66 (all “no qualifying close by Aug 10” mass)
• bins 9–12: 0.00 (the question resolves as a specific outcome by Aug 10 or the special “>Aug 10” string)

Sum = 0.02+0.03+0.04+0.05+0.06+0.06+0.05+0.03+0.66 = 1.00 ✓

Bins 9–12 = 0.00 each.

Variant 1: outside_view (outside_view_v1)

Reference class: historical instances where a national equity-price index starts ~5% below a nearby technical threshold and has ~0.65–0.8% daily volatility, asking whether it first closes at or above that threshold within ~43 trading days (the effective window here; brief notes 43 trading days to the August cutoff). Base rate: ~30% — taken as the midpoint of the brief’s quantitative estimates (random-walk / p75-based estimates ~20–25% (source 18), conservative hazard model ~19% (source 21), and a higher-hazard calibration ~54% (source 27)). Adjustment: -5 percentage points because the brief shows recent negative momentum and mixed fundamentals (PX ~2,523 on publication date, ~127 points / ~5% below threshold; source 1), CEZ headwinds despite raised guidance (sources 14, 29), and the strict resolution cutoff effectively ends the window on Aug 7 (PSE close/publish times after the noon-UTC cutoff; source 35) — these factors make a within-window close modestly less likely than the raw-model midpoint. Final (outside-view) probability that PX first closes ≥2,650 on or before the resolution cutoff: 25% (i.e., 0.25 total probability mass across bins covering Jun 11–Aug 7). Distributional shape and justification: • I allocate that 25% event-probability across the allowed in-window calendar bins (bin_0..bin_7) with a mild concentration in the mid-to-late window (bins covering mid‑July → early August). This reflects the brief’s medium‑strength survival/hazard evidence that places median/central mass in the middle-to-late part of the 43‑day window (source 27: median ~38.5 trading days; source 23: p25 ≈ late June/ mid‑July). The brief explicitly tags the “no qualifying close” scenario as medium‑evidence and several time‑window crossing scenarios as medium (and one early‑jump scenario low); I therefore give most event-mass to the medium‑evidence bins and only small weight to the low‑evidence early‑jump bin (per hard rule 5). • Specific bin weights (calendar-week bins): small near‑term mass in early June weeks (bin_0 1%, bin_1 1.5%, bin_2 2%), rising into July (bin_3 3%, bin_4 6%, bin_5 5%, bin_6 4.5%, bin_7 2%). These reflect outside‑view skepticism about very rapid rebounds (brief cites daily vol but also recent downtrend; sources 20, 16, 22) and place the modal within‑window chance in mid→late July / early August consistent with the brief’s hazard calibrations (sources 23, 27). • The remaining 75% probability mass is assigned to Aug 10–Oct 10, 2026 (bin_8) to represent the outside‑view probability that no qualifying close occurs by the question’s cutoff (the brief’s dominant medium‑evidence scenario is that PX remains below 2,650 through the effective deadline; see scenario tags and supporting evidence, e.g., source 18, 21, 16). I place the bulk of the >cutoff mass in rather than spreading widely into 2027 bins (bin_8) because the most plausible post‑window outcomes — if the threshold is missed in this short window — are that a later re‑test would occur within the next 1–2 months rather than many quarters later. Evidence-note anchors used: PX level on publication (~2,523; source 1), random‑walk p75/p50 and terminal spread (source 18), survival/hazard model spread (sources 21 and 27), and PSE close/publication timing that shortens the effective window (source 35). Confidence in this distribution is medium: the brief’s model estimates span a wide range (≈19–54%); I deliberately center on the outside‑view (base‑rate midpoint) and make only a modest adjustment (–5 pp) for the local negative/ambiguous fundamentals and the strict resolution cutoff.

Variant 2: contrarian_v2 (contrarian_v2)

Adversarial reading

The bulk of the evidence (current ~5% gap, rangebound May–June price action in 2,458–2,577, random-walk p75 terminal level of 2,641–2,642, and conservative hazard calibrations) pulls toward a low-to-moderate crossing probability (~20–40%) within the 43-trading-day window, with any crossing weighted toward the later weeks or no crossing at all.

Counter-evidence found (or absence)

The index closed above 2,650 as recently as April 21 (source 11), CEZ raised full-year 2026 guidance after Q1 (source 29), and the high-end hazard calibration yields 54% crossing probability with median wait ~38.5 days (source 27). However, these are offset by persistent CEZ EBITDA headwinds, IMF structural concerns, and the fact that even the optimistic models place substantial mass after the effective August 7 cutoff.

Distribution implications

The adversarial test increases mass on late window (bin_7) and especially no qualifying close by the August 10 UTC cutoff (bin_8) relative to a naive uniform spread, while trimming early bins (0–2) because the low-evidence “very early” scenario receives almost no support. Medium-evidence scenarios for mid-to-late July receive moderate but not dominant weight.

Consolidate

Strategy: logit_mean • Drafts: 3/3

Reviewers (3/3)

anchoring → shift_lower (low magnitude, medium confidence) anchoring_v1

The draft’s central anchoring concern is its treatment of the high-end hazard model (0.018/day, 54% crossing probability, median wait ~38.5 trading days) as roughly co-equal with the conservative models (19–25%). The high-end model’s median wait of ~38.5 trading days places the modal crossing date at roughly August 1, 2026 (late in the window), which the draft rationale acknowledges but then “discounts somewhat” without a quantitative justification. The draft assigns ~32% total in-window probability, but the bin-peak sits in bins 4–5 (mid-to-late July), effectively placing the p50 of the conditional crossing distribution in mid-July — this is optimistic anchoring because the conservative random-walk model places the p75 terminal level at only ~2,641 (still below 2,650), suggesting the modal crossing, if it occurs, would need to wait for a favorable tail move that is more likely late in the window or never. Specifically, the hazard-model median of 38.5 trading days is treated as if it supports mid-July bins (bins 4–5) rather than bins 6–7 (late July/early August), since 38.5 trading days from June 10 lands approximately August 3–4, 2026. The draft effectively anchors the within-window distribution at the median of the most aggressive model (0.018/day) rather than the modal expectation across all three quantitative anchors.

Flagged concerns

• Over-reliance on aggressive hazard model for bin shaping: The 0.018/day hazard model’s median wait of ~38.5 trading days is used to shape the within-window distribution, placing modal mass in bins 4–5 (mid-July). However, this model was described as potentially mis-calibrated (brief says ‘high-end hazard calibrations may overestimate crossing probability’), and the three models range from 19% to 54%. The draft rationale nominally discounts the high-end model (‘aggressive hazard model likely overstates’) but then shapes the bins as if median crossing falls in mid-July, which corresponds to roughly the 0.018/day model’s median — not the cross-model consensus median.
• Conditional crossing distribution anchored too early: The draft places peak in-window probability in bins 4–5 (Jul 11–Jul 26), but 38.5 trading days from June 11 is approximately August 3–4, placing the aggressive model’s median in bin 7 (Aug 2–10). Bins 4–5 represent ~20–30 trading days, which corresponds only to the p25 of the aggressive hazard model (source 23: p25 ≈ 29 trading days, mid-July). The draft appears to have anchored on the p25 of the optimistic model rather than the conditional modal date.
• Insufficient mass on ‘no qualifying close’ bin: The draft assigns 58.7% to no qualifying close (bin_8). Given that the random-walk model alone suggests ~75–80% probability of NOT reaching 2,650 by deadline (placing 2,650 above p75 of terminal distribution), and the conservative hazard model gives ~80.6% no-crossing probability, a central estimate closer to 65–70% in-window ‘no event’ would be more defensible. 58.7% may be slightly too confident about a within-window crossing.

ceiling → redistribute (low magnitude, high confidence) ceiling_v1

The hard structural constraint here is the effective window ceiling: per the brief, PSE closes at 16:28 CET (14:28 UTC) and publishes official closing values at 17:15 CET (15:15 UTC), both after the noon UTC cutoff of 2026-08-10T12:00:00Z. This means August 10 cannot produce a qualifying close, making the effective last qualifying trading day August 7, 2026. The draft rationale acknowledges this but bins 9–12 still carry ~0.42% combined mass (0.001 each), which is structurally impossible: the resolution criteria produce exactly one non-date outcome (the string “>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00”) with no mechanism for the question to resolve to a date in October 2026 or later. That ~0.42% should be zero, transferred to bin_8 as the sole “no qualifying close” resolution bin.

Flagged concerns

• Hard window ceiling — bins 9-12 cannot occur: The resolution criteria state that if no qualifying close occurs by 2026-08-10T12:00:00Z, the question resolves as the specific string ‘>2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00’ — not as a date in October 2026 or later. Bins 9–12 represent specific future dates (Oct 2026 – Apr 2027+), which are structurally impossible resolution outcomes. The combined ~0.42% assigned to bins 9–12 should be zero, with that mass transferred to bin_8. Arithmetic: 4 × 0.001 ≈ 0.4% misplaced.
• Effective last trading day constraint incompletely propagated: Bin_7 covers ‘Aug 02 to Aug 10, 2026’ but the brief confirms that Aug 8, Aug 9, and Aug 10 closes cannot qualify (PSE publishes at 15:15 UTC, after the noon cutoff). The effective window in bin_7 covers only ~5 trading days (Aug 3–7), not the implied ~6. The draft’s ~5.2% for bin_7 is slightly elevated by this miscounting, though the impact is small.

math → redistribute (medium magnitude, medium confidence) math_v1

The draft forecast exhibits a critical inconsistency between its stated reasoning and the probability distribution. The rationale derives ~32% (inside view) and ~25% (outside view) probability for a qualifying close within the window (bins 0–7), yet the published distribution allocates only ~0.349 (34.9%) to these bins—a 65.1% mass in bin_8 representing “no qualifying close.” Additionally, the rationale explicitly states “Bins 9–12 = 0.00 each” and the inside-view allocation should sum to ~32% in bins 0–7, but the draft places ~0.001 each in bins 9–12, contradicting the stated mathematical plan.

Flagged concerns

• Probability mass allocation inconsistency: Rationale specifies ~32% (inside-view) to bins 0–7 and ~68% to bin_8, with bins 9–12 = 0.00. Published distribution: bins 0–7 = 0.349, bin_8 = 0.587, bins 9–12 = ~0.004 total. The draft allocates 65.1% to bin_8 instead of the stated 68%, and nonzero mass (0.001 each) to bins 9–12 when the rationale said 0.00.
• Intra-window bin shape inconsistency: Inside-view allocation (per rationale): bin_0=0.02, bin_1=0.03, bin_2=0.04, bin_3=0.05, bin_4=0.06, bin_5=0.06, bin_6=0.05, bin_7=0.03. Published: bin_0=0.0167, bin_1=0.0276, bin_2=0.0383, bin_3=0.052, bin_4=0.0749, bin_5=0.0751, bin_6=0.0723, bin_7=0.0517. The shape is different: published version frontloads bin_7 and skews later relative to the rationale’s plan, and the total intra-window mass (0.349) is lower than the stated 32%.
• Bin label-to-id mapping error: Draft uses human-readable bin labels (e.g. ‘Aug 02, 2026 to Aug 10, 2026’) but the required schema demands EXACT bin_id keys (bin_0, bin_1, …, bin_12). The function parameter requires prediction_map_by_id with keys like ‘bin_7’, not calendar date ranges. This is a schema violation.

Reconcile: partial_shift

Reviews consumed: 3

The anchoring reviewer flagged that mass peaks too early (bins 4-5) when the aggressive hazard model’s median actually falls in early August, and suggested slightly lowering in-window probability; I partially accepted by flattening the late-July peak and shifting a touch later. The ceiling reviewer correctly noted that bins 9-12 represent structurally impossible date outcomes (the only non-date resolution is the “>Aug 10” string, which belongs in bin_8), so I zeroed those out and moved that mass to bin_8. The math reviewer flagged the schema-key issue (bin_id keys required) and the inconsistency between the inside-view rationale (~32% in-window, 0% in bins 9-12) and the draft’s published distribution — I accepted both: using bin_id keys exclusively and zeroing bins 9-12. Net effect: in-window probability ~31% (consistent with the cross-model midpoint between the conservative ~20% and aggressive ~54% models, adjusted down for negative recent momentum), peak shifted slightly toward late July/early August per anchoring concerns, all “no qualifying close” mass consolidated in bin_8.

Rejected critiques

• [anchoring] In-window total probability (~34%) is too high; should be closer to 25-30%
  • Why rejected: The cross-model midpoint of the three hazard calibrations (19%, 37%, 54%) plus the random-walk ~20-25% supports roughly 28-32% in-window probability. I kept ~31% as a reasonable central estimate rather than dropping to 25%, since the anchoring reviewer’s own independent forecast (~33% in-window) is similar to the draft.

Final Distribution (date ranges)

Evidence Sources (38)

1. Czech Republic Stock Market (SE PX) - Trading Economics — The Prague Stock Exchange PX index closed at 2,523 points on June 10, 2026, down 1.02% from the previous session, according to Trading Economics.
2. Czech Republic Stock Market (SE PX) - Trading Economics — The Prague Stock Exchange PX index reached an all-time high of 2,804.96 points in February 2026, according to Trading Economics historical data.
3. Prague Stock Exchange improved record again as PX index surpasses 2700 points - Radio Prague — Radio Prague reported that the PX index surpassed 2,700 points at some point in 2026, rising 0.56% to 2,700.62 points, marking a new record at the time.
4. Prague bourse PX index reaches record high of over 2600 points - Intellinews — The PX index reached a then-record high of 2,640.70 points on December 17, 2025, the highest daily closing in its history at that time.
5. Stocks in Czech Republic Hit All-time High - Trading Economics — The PX index reached a new all-time high of 2,582.00 points around January 27, 2026, representing a 4.92% gain over the prior 4 weeks.
6. Prague bourse loses 2.95 pct, CEZ down more than 11 pct - PSE — On January 20, 2026, the PX index fell 2.95% to 2,650.35 points, with CEZ down more than 11%, according to Prague Stock Exchange news. This means 2,650 was a downside crossing point in January 2026.
7. Czech Republic Prague Stock Exchange: Index: PX Index - CEIC — CEIC data shows PX index monthly values: Jan 2026 high (all-time high was 2,763.26), Feb 2026 2,763.26 (peak), Mar 2026 2,509.95, Apr 2026 2,537.88, May 2026 2,547.39.
8. PX Historical Data - Investing.com — Investing.com data shows recent PX closes: May 29 2,547.39; Jun 1 2,518.33; Jun 2 2,530.84. The index has been trading in the 2,500-2,550 range in late May/early June 2026.
9. PX | Prague Stock Exchange — The PX index year low in 2026 is 2,126.68 points, meaning the index fell substantially from its 2026 high of ~2,805 to a low of ~2,127 before recovering to ~2,523 by June 2026.
10. Trading Economics / Prague Stock Exchange — The PX index closed at 2,523 points on June 10, 2026, which is approximately 5.0% below the 2,650 threshold. The index needs to gain ~127 points from current levels to reach the target.
11. PX Historical Data - Investing.com — Recent PX index daily closing prices (Apr–May 2026): April 21: 2,656.05; April 22: 2,641.53; April 23: 2,630.52; April 24: 2,599.65; April 27: 2,591.61; April 28: 2,597.91; April 29: 2,592.31; April 30: 2,537.88; May 4: 2,471.84; May 5: 2,458.94; May 6: 2,526.71; May 26: 2,577.59. The index was ABOVE 2,650 in late April 2026 before pulling back.
12. PX (FPXAA.PR) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance shows the PX index at 2,548.87, up 24.76 (+0.98%) at close on what appears to be the most recent trading day (June 10, 2026 per Trading Economics data showed 2,523, so this may reflect an intraday/different close).
13. Czech Republic: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV - IMF — IMF’s 2026 Article IV consultation (Feb 2026) noted Czech economy faces mounting structural headwinds; monetary policy should remain on hold or lower rates; inflation expected to undershoot CNB’s 2% target.
14. CEZ, a.s. Price: Quote, Forecast, Charts & News - Perplexity — CEZ (dominant PX component) reported Q1 2026 EBITDA down 18% YoY and revenue down 9%, reflecting structurally lower electricity prices. Earnings forecast to decline ~2% per year over the next 3 years.
15. level_forecast tool calculation — Level forecast for PX index at end of the 43-trading-day window (to Aug 10, 2026) from current 2,523: median 2,523, p75 = 2,642.57, p90 = 2,755.02. The p75 outcome is just below the 2,650 threshold, indicating roughly 25-30% probability of reaching 2,650 by the end of the period on a pure random walk basis (i.e., P(reaching at any point) is somewhat higher than the final-level probability).
16. PX Historical Data - Investing.com — The PX index has been ranging between approximately 2,458 and 2,562 during May 2026, showing a gradual recovery from a March 2026 low around 2,460-2,510, with no strong momentum toward 2,650.
17. survival_forecast tool calculation — Survival forecast for PX first closing at or above 2,650: using a daily crossing hazard rate of ~1.8% per trading day (calibrated from the ~127 point gap at ~0.7% daily vol, needing a sustained upward trend), P(crossing 2,650 by Aug 10, 2026, i.e., within 43 trading days) ≈ 54%. Median wait ≈ 38.5 trading days (~7.5 weeks). Note: this is a rough calibration; the actual probability is highly sensitive to the assumed hazard rate.
18. level_forecast model — Level forecast (random walk, 43 trading days, daily vol ~0.67% from recent values): from current 2,523, p50=2,523, p75=2,641, p90=2,752. The 2,650 target is above the p75 level, meaning less than 25% probability of closing at or above 2,650 by the resolution date under a zero-drift random walk assumption.
19. Czech News Agency (ČTK) / Investujeme.cz — The PX index first closed above 2,650 points on December 19, 2025, closing at 2,654.25 — that was the first-ever close above 2,600 only days earlier (December 17 at 2,640.70). The index ended 2025 at 2,685.65, a +52.58% gain for the year.
20. Investing.com PX Historical Data calculations — The PX index daily volatility based on recent price series (Apr–Jun 2026) is approximately 0.65-0.8% per day (standard deviation of daily log returns ~0.007-0.008), with daily swings typically ranging from -2.6% to +2.8%. This implies a 43-trading-day standard deviation of roughly 4.3-5.2%.
21. survival_forecast model — Survival forecast with hazard rate 0.005/day (implying ~1 qualifying close per 200 trading days at current distance): P(PX first closes ≥2,650 by deadline in 43 trading days) ≈ 19.4%. Median wait if it happens: 138 trading days. The level forecast places the 2,650 target just above the p75 of the 43-day random walk distribution (p75=2,641), consistent with ~20-25% probability of ever reaching 2,650 in this window.
22. PX Quote - Prague Stock Exchange Index - Bloomberg.com — Bloomberg shows the PX index opened at 2,523.58 on June 10, 2026, down 25.29 (-0.99%), indicating a moderately negative session on the question publication date.
23. survival_forecast tool calculation (median 60 trading days, shape 1.2) — A calibrated survival forecast for PX first crossing 2,650 (5.0% above current level of 2,523) with a median wait of ~60 trading days (slightly longer than the 43-day window) and slight increasing hazard (shape 1.2) gives P(crossing by Aug 10, 2026) ≈ 37%. The p25 event date is roughly 29 trading days (~6 weeks, mid-July 2026) and p50 is ~60 trading days (~late August 2026, outside the window).
24. PX | Prague Stock Exchange (Index Values detail) — Prague Stock Exchange official PX index page lists the PX calculation time as 09:00–16:28 (local exchange time) and provides end-of-day/closing index values on its Index Values page.
25. Download Files | Prague Stock Exchange — Prague Stock Exchange provides downloadable index/price files (including ‘Complete Results of Trading’ and ‘Price List with delay T+120’) via its ‘Download Files’ page, indicating official data are available for verification.
26. MarketWatch FPXAA historical data download — MarketWatch provides downloadable historical PX index close data (symbol FPXAA) and shows recent close values such as 2,536.20 on 2026-06-05 and daily rows for early June 2026.
27. survival_forecast tool output — Survival-forecast using a hazard rate of 0.018 events per trading day (exponential hazard) projects P(PX first closes ≥2,650 within 43 trading days) = 0.5388 (53.9%), median wait ≈ 38.5 trading days, p10 ≈ 5.9 days, p90 ≈ 128 trading days.
28. Czech Republic Equity Market Index - CEIC Data — The Czech PX index stood at 2,547.4 points at end-May 2026, compared with 2,537.9 at end-April 2026, indicating only marginal month-on-month recovery and a level ~95 points (~3.6%) below the 2,650 threshold as of early June 2026.
29. CEZ Group Earned CZK 14.5 billion in Q1 2026 - CEZ Press Release — CEZ Group raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook after Q1 2026 results: it now expects EBITDA of CZK 107–112 billion and adjusted net profit of CZK 30–34 billion, with Q1 adjusted net profit up 6% YoY to CZK 13.5 billion.
30. PX | Prague Stock Exchange – official Index Values detail page — The official Prague Stock Exchange PX Index Values page at https://www.pse.cz/en/indices/index-values/detail/XC0009698371 provides a searchable historical table with columns Date, Open, High, Low, Close, and Change. The page explicitly states “Closing data from the last trading day during off-trading hours” and shows current/intraday data in real time. The PX Index ISIN is XC0009698371, Bloomberg Ticker is “PX index”, and Reuters Ticker is “.PX”. The index is calculated by Vienna Stock Exchange (Wiener Börse AG).
31. Index Values – Prague Stock Exchange — The official PSE ‘Index Values’ page at https://www.pse.cz/en/indices/index-values lists all PSE indices including PX (real-time) and end-of-day indices, with closing data from the last trading day displayed during off-trading hours. The last 52 weeks data is based on close values, confirming the page is the authoritative source for official PX closing values.
32. Earnings call transcript: ČEZ Group Q1 2026 reveals mixed results - Investing.com — CEZ’s Q1 2026 earnings call showed a complex picture: net income rose 13% YoY to CZK 14.5 billion, but EBITDA fell 18% YoY primarily due to lower power prices and nuclear outages, before the subsequent guidance upgrade driven by Middle East crisis-linked power price recovery.
33. CEZ 2026 outlook misses estimates as lower power prices weigh - Investing.com — As of March 2026, CEZ’s 2026 outlook missed analyst estimates: its dividend policy suggested a payout of CZK 31–42 per share for 2025 vs. analyst consensus of CZK 43, reflecting a guidance shortfall and lower power prices weighing on the stock.
34. Download Files | Prague Stock Exchange — The Prague Stock Exchange ‘Download Files’ page at https://www.pse.cz/en/download-files provides two downloadable file sets: (1) ‘Price List with delay T+120’’ (free, files AK and BO.CSV in PL.zip), and (2) ‘Complete Results of Trading without delay’ (paid subscribers only, files AK, BB, BC, BI, BO, BV, CD, EA, EC, ED, ES, FC, FM.CSV in RE.zip). Historical price list files (Results.ak) are available to the public free of charge including one year history; historical complete results (Results.old) require a paid subscription.
35. DQAF View: Czech Republic – Stock market: share price index – SDDS (IMF/DSBB) — According to the IMF SDDS/DQAF data quality page for Czech Republic stock market, “The PX index is official value of the PX Index is published on trading days at 5.15 p.m. available on the PSE website,” confirming that the official PX closing value is published daily at 17:15 (5:15 PM) on the PSE website pse.cz.
36. Czech Republic | Prague Stock Exchange: Index | CEIC (sourced from Prague Stock Exchange) — CEIC, citing the Prague Stock Exchange as primary source, reports the PX Index annual closing value for 2025 as 2,685.65 (base: 5 Apr 1994 = 1,000), up from 1,760.17 in 2024. This is an all-time high for the series (records back to 1994). The PSE’s own December 2025 news release states the PX index rose 47% during 2025 and reached historic highs.
37. Prague Stock Exchange considers 2025 one of its most successful years – PSE official news — The Prague Stock Exchange’s official news release dated 17 December 2025 states: “Both the main PX index and the PX-TR dividend index reached historic highs during the year. The PX index [strengthened] by 47% [during 2025].” This is sourced directly from pse.cz, corroborating that year-end 2025 PX values were at record levels.
38. PX | Prague Stock Exchange – Index Values detail page (live data) — The official PSE PX Index Values page (cached 29 April 2026) shows the PX index intraday value at 13:10:05 CET on 29.04.2026, with the prior day’s (28.04.2026) closing overview: Open 2,591.61, Daily High 2,617.24, Daily Low 2,591.61, Year High 2,804.83, Year Low 2,019.28. The ‘Year Low’ of 2,019.28 corresponds to the intra-year low seen during the 2025 market drawdown period, and the ‘Year High’ of 2,804.83 reflects the 2025 all-time high referenced in PSE’s official news.

wooley_rhino • run 8b8d2754 • $2.92 • 10m52s

Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1781136000.0, 1.0: 1781222400.0, 5.0: 1781740800.0, 10.0: 1782345600.0, 15.0: 1782864000.0, 20.0: 1783382400.0, 25.0: 1783900800.0, 30.0: 1784246400.0, 35.0: 1784678400.0, 40.0: 1785110400.0, 45.0: 1785369600.0, 46.0: 1785369600.0, 47.0: 1785456000.0, 48.0: 1785456000.0, 49.0: 1785715200.0, 50.0: 1785715200.0, 51.0: 1785801600.0, 52.0: 1785801600.0, 53.0: 1785888000.0, 54.0: 1785888000.0, 55.0: 1785974400.0, 60.0: 1786320000.0, 65.0: 1786406400.0, 70.0: 1786406400.0, 75.0: 1786406400.0, 80.0: 1786406400.0, 85.0: 1786406400.0, 90.0: 1786406400.0, 95.0: 1786406400.0, 99.0: 1786406400.0, 99.9: 1786406400.0}

Model’s Answer: Looking at this question, I need to forecast when the PX index of the Prague Stock Exchange will first close at or above 2,650.00 points between June 10 and August 10, 2026.

Key Data Points

Current Situation (as of June 10, 2026):

• Current PX level: ~2,548.87 (June 9, 2026 close)
• Target threshold: 2,650.00
• Gap to threshold: ~101 points or approximately +4.0%
• 2026 year high: 2,804.83 (reached in February 2026)
• 2026 year low: 2,126.68

Important Historical Context:

• The PX has already traded above 2,650 multiple times this year (2,700+ in April, 2,805 in February)
• The 2026 trading range spans ~32% from low to high, indicating substantial volatility
• Recent closes in early June have been stable in the 2,518-2,549 range
• Macro backdrop is stable but cautious (CNB tightening buffers, no acute crisis)

Resolution Cadence Analysis

The PX index can only resolve on Prague Stock Exchange trading days (Monday-Friday, excluding Czech holidays). Key Czech holiday: July 6, 2026 (Jan Hus Day). This gives approximately 42-43 possible trading days in the resolution window.

Probability Assessment

For reaching 2,650:

• A 4% move over 2 months is well within typical volatility for the PX (annualized ~18-22% implied)
• The threshold is NOT unprecedented—already reached earlier in 2026
• However, the index has been trending down from February highs
• No clear catalyst for an immediate rally in the research

My estimate: ~60% probability of reaching 2,650 by August 10, ~40% probability of non-resolution

Key Assumptions and Risk Factors:

1. Assumption: No major crisis event (failure probability ~10%) - A regional financial shock could push the index lower
2. Assumption: Normal market volatility (failure probability ~5%) - Unusually low volatility could prevent the move
3. Assumption: No strong upward catalyst (failure probability ~15%) - A surprise positive catalyst could accelerate resolution

Earlier vs. Later Outcome Analysis

Earlier outcome likelihood (~25%): A quick rally could occur if European markets surge, energy prices benefit ČEZ (major index component), or positive earnings surprises emerge. Strong single-stock moves of 2-3% across major constituents could push the index up 4% within 2-3 weeks.

Later outcome/Non-resolution likelihood (~40%): If the current sideways/downward trend continues, or if macro concerns weigh on Central European markets, the index may not reach 2,650 within the window. The index is already 9% below its 2026 peak.

Percentile Distribution

All percentiles are assigned to actual trading days:

Percentile .1: 2026-06-11 Percentile 1: 2026-06-12 Percentile 5: 2026-06-18 Percentile 10: 2026-06-25 Percentile 15: 2026-07-01 Percentile 20: 2026-07-07 Percentile 25: 2026-07-13 Percentile 30: 2026-07-17 Percentile 35: 2026-07-22 Percentile 40: 2026-07-27 Percentile 45: 2026-07-30 Percentile 46: 2026-07-30 Percentile 47: 2026-07-31 Percentile 48: 2026-07-31 Percentile 49: 2026-08-03 Percentile 50: 2026-08-03 Percentile 51: 2026-08-04 Percentile 52: 2026-08-04 Percentile 53: 2026-08-05 Percentile 54: 2026-08-05 Percentile 55: 2026-08-06 Percentile 60: 2026-08-10 Percentile 65: 2026-08-11 Percentile 70: 2026-08-11 Percentile 75: 2026-08-11 Percentile 80: 2026-08-11 Percentile 85: 2026-08-11 Percentile 90: 2026-08-11 Percentile 95: 2026-08-11 Percentile 99: 2026-08-11 Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-11

Exchange structure constrains outcomes: PX is a price-only, free-float weighted index concentrated in a few large names and tied to the Prague trading calendar.

Eligible resolution dates run from 2026-06-11 through 2026-08-10, a roughly forty-two trading-day horizon that compresses opportunity for multi-step rallies.

Current level is about five percent below the 2,650 barrier, with a year-long positive trend but a mildly negative two-month tape and nontrivial realized volatility.

Empirical close-to-close behavior from similar starts shows a substantial historical hit rate within a comparable window, supporting a material chance of a near-term qualifying close.

Idiosyncratic shocks in the largest constituents, particularly major banks and the dominant utility, are the most direct path to a rapid first hit.

Conversely, continued short-term negative momentum or adverse macro developments would lock the index below the barrier and drive the no-hit outcome.

Principal uncertainties are directional drift over the next six weeks and concentration risk that converts stock-specific moves into index-scale swings.

Overlapping historical samples and regime shifts in volatility reduce confidence in any single numeric estimate; conditional timing skews to early July if a hit occurs.

Forecast (first close ≥ 2,650.00 points): 2026-09-10 (no P50; median not available)

• Where the index is now: PX last closed around 2,521, so it needs about a 5% rise to reach 2,650.
• Base chances aren’t tiny, but the “first day” timing is hard: Historical 40–50 session gains of this size happen fairly often, yet this question cares about when the threshold is first crossed—near-term paths are noisy.
• Big constituent risk (ČEZ): The largest single driver is viewed as overextended vs consensus targets, which makes a fast rebound less assured.
• Seasonality/event pressure: Summer dividend/ex-dividend effects can mechanically weigh on a price index, reducing the likelihood of an early threshold touch.
• Plausible timing window: If the index does break through during the allowed period, it’s more likely to be late July to early/mid August—but a substantial share of outcomes push the first hit past the deadline, putting the central “first-pass” date around early September.