When will the Weekly Economic Index shift by more than 0.75 points from its current value?

• My median prediction for the Weekly Economic Index (WEI) to shift by more than 0.75 points from its baseline is 26th March 2028.
• The baseline value (X) is 2.50% (week ended June 20, 2026), making the resolution thresholds strictly greater than 3.25% or strictly less than 1.75%.
• Recent index volatility is moderate; while the index reached a high of 3.23% in May 2026, the largest weekly change in the last six months was 0.60 points, which is below the 0.75-point requirement.
• The index is updated every Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET, and resolution depends exclusively on the first reported (initial) value for a given week.
• Semi-annual re-estimation of weights in July and January provides a potential catalyst for discrete shifts, though historical data suggests these rarely exceed the 0.75-point threshold on their own.
• Long-term business cycle transitions are the most likely cause for a breach, as immediate recession risks remain low (12% for 2026).

Key figures

Historical context

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) was developed by Lewis, Mertens, and Stock as a high-frequency measure to track U.S. economic activity in real-time. Historically, the index has shown high sensitivity to major macroeconomic shocks. For example, during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the index recorded a massive weekly change of -2.74 points. Similarly, during the recovery phase in March 2021, it saw weekly increases as high as 2.76 points. However, outside of these extreme crisis periods, the index typically exhibits much smaller fluctuations. Over the period from 2007 to 2026, the mean value has been 1.98% with a range from -8.11% to 10.57%. In the 60 weeks leading up to July 2026, the index has been significantly more stable, operating within a tight band between 1.75% and 3.23%, with a standard deviation of approximately 0.29% to 0.32%. This recent period represents one of relative macroeconomic calm compared to the volatility of the early 2020s.

Tailwinds

• Proximity to Threshold: The index reached 3.23% in May 2026, just 0.03 points shy of the upper threshold, showing that even minor volatility could trigger resolution.
• Weight Re-estimation: The Dallas Fed re-estimates WEI weights in July, which can cause sudden level shifts regardless of the underlying economic data.
• Energy Volatility: Brent crude prices reached $118/bbl in early 2026; renewed energy shocks could rapidly depress industrial and consumer components of the WEI.
• Real-Time Focus: New Fed leadership (Chairman Warsh) is prioritizing real-time data, which may lead to more responsive or volatile index components.

Headwinds

• Historical Rarity: Moves exceeding ±0.75 points occur in less than 5% of the historical sample, suggesting high resistance to crossing the threshold.
• Recent Stability: The largest move in the last 24 observations was ±0.60, indicating a lack of the extreme volatility required for a breakthrough.
• Low Recession Risk: Polymarket data shows only a 12% chance of a US recession by the end of 2026, reducing the likelihood of a sharp downward breach.
• Current Positioning: At 2.50%, the index is centrally located within the 1.5-point band, requiring a significant departure from the mean to resolve.

Detailed reasoning

My analysis of the Weekly Economic Index (WEI) indicates a stable but moderately volatile environment, leading to a median prediction for a 0.75-point shift on 26th March 2028. The baseline value (X) at the time of the forecast was 2.50% (for the week ended June 20, 2026), establishing resolution thresholds of >3.25% or <1.75%.

In the immediate term, the probability of a breach is low. Historical data from the last 60 weeks shows the index has fluctuated between 1.75% and 3.23%. While the upper end of this range (3.23%) is extremely close to the 3.25% threshold, the index recently dropped to 2.50%, providing a buffer. Macrobond data reveals that moves exceeding ±0.75 points are statistically rare, occurring in less than 5% of the total historical sample since 2007. Furthermore, in the most recent 24-week window, the largest single-week move was only 0.60 points.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas publishes the WEI every Thursday. Because the resolution criteria specifically target the “first reported” value and ignore subsequent revisions, the event can only occur on these discrete publication dates. I have accounted for the semi-annual re-estimation of WEI weights that occurs every January and July. This methodology change can induce discrete level shifts even without significant changes in the underlying data, slightly elevating the risk of a breach during the July 2026 reporting cycle.

Macroeconomic drivers currently present a mixed signal. While Brent crude prices and inflation expectations suggest potential upward pressure (upside breach), recent cooling in oil prices to around $69 per barrel and a stable 12% recession probability for 2026 suggest the economy is not currently at a tipping point for a sharp downward break (<1.75%). The 13-week moving average sits at 2.83%, suggesting the index is currently operating in the upper half of its recent range.

Given the stability of the current regime and the rarity of large weekly swings, a breach is most likely to occur due to the cumulative effects of a business cycle shift (e.g., a transition toward recession or a significant growth acceleration) rather than an immediate shock. The median date of March 2028 reflects this long-term hazard, where the probability of the index eventually wandering outside its 1.5-point-wide band becomes more likely than not over a multi-year horizon.

Key uncertainties

• Weight Re-estimation Impact: The magnitude of the July methodology shift is unknown and could provide a one-time jump.
• Geopolitical Shocks: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz could cause sudden, non-linear drops in fuel and retail components.
• Data Revisions: While the question uses “initial reports,” sudden large revisions to previous weeks’ data often precede volatility in the new week’s print.
• Monetary Policy Shift: A transition to interest rate hikes in late 2026 could cooling industrial production faster than current trends suggest.

Conclusion

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is expected to remain within its current range of 1.75% to 3.25% in the near term, with a median breakout date of 26th March 2028.
• Decision-makers should monitor the scheduled Thursday updates and the July weight re-estimation for potential discrete level shifts, while keeping a long-term view on business cycle fluctuations as the primary driver for a threshold breach.

Question: will the Dallas Fed’s first‑print Weekly Economic Index (WEI), baseline X = 2.50, exceed 3.25 or fall below 1.75 on a first report before the contract expires (six plausible Thursday updates: Jul 2, Jul 9, Jul 16, Jul 23, Jul 30, Aug 6)? Forecasters agree the baseline is X = 2.50 so the trigger bands are strict (>3.25 or <1.75) and resolution must use the Dallas Fed’s initial Thursday print (ignore later revisions); operationally watch the page at/after 10:30 a.m. CT each Thursday. Numerical time‑series models (random‑walk with μ≈+0.026/wk, σ≈0.30/wk) and ensemble runs imply substantial but not dominant chances of a hit, with median team probabilities ~44–48% pre‑expiration and the remainder in an open tail for no qualifying print. Historical July and other non‑pandemic analogues show ±0.75 weekly moves do occur (sometimes in 1–5 weeks), so routine calendar/series volatility and July reweighting/re‑estimation present real jump risk; however, recent component indicators (strong Redbook and rail, softer hiring, mixed fuel/steel signals) are mixed rather than signaling a synchronized macro shock. Teams largely agree on treating this as a discrete survival problem across six releases, separating routine weekly volatility from correlated macro‑shock hazards, and emphasize recording the first reported value immediately; minor disagreements are only on the exact near‑term hazard allocation (slightly higher early hazard vs. a more even spread).

Forecast and Reasoning

Forecast: Probability distribution:

• 10.00% chance of value below 2026-07-16 13:46:42 UTC
• 20.00% chance of value below 2026-07-30 12:36:21 UTC
• 40.00% chance of value below 2026-08-12 12:00:00 UTC
• 60.00% chance of value below 2026-08-12 12:00:00 UTC
• 80.00% chance of value below 2026-08-12 12:00:00 UTC
• 90.00% chance of value below 2026-08-12 12:00:00 UTC

Forecast Reasoning

At question open (2026-07-02), analysts consistently identified the baseline Dallas Fed WEI value as X = 2.50 (week ended 2026-06-20), implying thresholds WEI > 3.25 or WEI < 1.75. The WEI is reported weekly (typically Thursdays), so there are only about six “first-report” opportunities before the 2026-08-12 cutoff (roughly Jul 2, 9, 16, 23, 30, Aug 6). Recent history cited by multiple forecasters shows 2026 values reaching about 3.22 on the high end and not approaching 1.75 on the low end, with week-to-week volatility typically ~0.25–0.30 and rare large jumps (~0.60). That makes a ±0.75 move from a 2.50 baseline achievable but not the default within only ~6 releases absent a notable shock. Compared to the individual forecasts, I weight Forecaster 2’s volatility-based argument (lower in-window probability) more than Forecaster 1’s more optimistic estimate, while also acknowledging that the upside threshold (3.25) is close to recent highs, which keeps the in-window chance meaningfully above “very small.” Net: I place roughly ~35% probability of a threshold hit on/before 2026-08-12 (mostly concentrated toward the later in-window releases) and ~65% in the open-after tail (>2026-08-12).

An amateur forecast often (a) ignores the discrete weekly release cadence and treats any day as equally likely, and/or (b) anchors percentiles at the deadline date rather than using strictly post-bound dates to represent the “> Aug 12” tail. This forecast explicitly concentrates probability on plausible release dates, uses the open-upper mechanism correctly by moving p40+ strictly past 2026-08-12, and moderates between an overly-optimistic within-window view and an overly-compressed-at-the-bound view by tying the within-window mass to observed WEI volatility and the short number of remaining releases.

Forecast rationale (numeric):

— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning is that the Weekly Economic Index can only move on its Thursday releases, so any threshold crossing must occur on one of those dates. The relevant trigger is a cumulative move of more than 0.75 points from the current level, which is treated as a shift outside the current band rather than a minor weekly fluctuation.

Key factors driving the outlook:

• Recent volatility: A recent ~0.60-point weekly drop is taken as evidence that a 0.75-point move is plausible within a few weeks.
• Moderate macro conditions: There is no strong sign of an acute economic shock, so the index is not expected to break sharply in the immediate term.
• Release cadence: Probabilities are concentrated on Thursday updates, creating a stepwise distribution rather than a smooth one.
• Stable-environment tail risk: If macro conditions remain fairly steady, the index could remain inside its current range for a prolonged period, creating a long tail in the timing distribution.

Areas of agreement:

• A crossing is plausible in late summer 2026, with meaningful probability before mid-August.
• The most likely path is through gradual weekly movement rather than a sudden one-off shock.
• The timing distribution should be Thursday-clustered and have a long tail.

Main differences:

• The forecasts differ on how soon the median crossing occurs: some place it around early August, while others push it into mid-September.
• Near-term probability estimates vary, but most cluster in the roughly one-third to one-half range for a breach within the next several weeks.

Overall, the collective view is that a >0.75-point shift is reasonably likely over the coming months, with the strongest near-term window centered on the August Thursday releases, but with substantial uncertainty and a long tail if conditions stay stable.

— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the Weekly Economic Index is treated as a short-horizon, release-driven series centered near 2.5, with the relevant trigger being a move to roughly 3.25 or 1.75. The main reasoning patterns are:

• Mean reversion around the current level: The index is seen as likely to oscillate around 2.5 rather than trend sharply, so a >0.75 move is possible but not the default outcome.
• Moderate recent volatility: A recent weekly move of about -0.60 and a recent range near 1.88–3.22 suggest the threshold is close enough that a breach is plausible without requiring an extreme shock.
• Event-timed probabilities: The forecasts anchor timing to the weekly Thursday Dallas Fed release, with the greatest near-term chance concentrated on the next several releases rather than a single specific date.
• Low-to-moderate shock risk: Stable macro/market conditions reduce the odds of an immediate large move, but they do not eliminate the possibility of a threshold-crossing week.
• Broader time horizon if not soon: If the move does not occur in the July/early-August window, the probability mass shifts into late August and beyond, with some forecasts allowing for a prolonged period of stability around the current band.

Consensus: a >0.75-point shift is plausible in the near term but not the most likely immediate outcome.
Differences: estimates of a pre-expiration move vary meaningfully, ranging from roughly 30–40% to about 47%, with the remaining probability concentrated on later Thursdays and a long tail for delayed resolution.

— Iteration 3 — The main reasoning is that the Weekly Economic Index can only “resolve” on its Thursday release dates, so any threshold crossing is effectively pinned to a Thursday. The current level is around 2.5, which is already close enough to the 0.75-point trigger that a breach is plausible without requiring an unusually large shock.

The biggest argument for an early shift is recent volatility: a roughly 0.60-point weekly move suggests the index has been moving enough to cross the threshold within a few weeks, making late July to early August the most likely window. At the same time, stable labor, spending, production, and market conditions temper that urgency, leaving meaningful tail risk that the index stays within range through mid/late August or even longer.

Overall, the forecasts cluster around:

• Timing: most likely on a Thursday in late July or early August
• Drivers: recent volatility, proximity to the threshold, and Thursday-only reporting
• Uncertainty: stable macro indicators could delay the move, so there is still substantial probability of no crossing by early/mid-August

Here is a synthesis of the reasoning across the forecasting rationales:

Baseline Constraints and Index Mechanics The rationales agree that because the question opened before the July 2, 2026 update, the baseline is locked at the June 25 release value of 2.50%. To resolve, an initial Weekly Economic Index (WEI) report must print above 3.25% or below 1.75% before August 12, 2026. A central theme across the forecasts is that initial WEI prints suffer from “ragged-edge” data problems—relying on partial metrics that make them inherently noisy and prone to overshooting before revisions. Given that the index recently plunged 0.60 points in a single week, forecasters note that a 0.75-point shift is highly plausible.

Seasonal Distortions and Calendar Quirks The most widely cited catalyst for an imminent threshold breach is the extreme statistical noise expected in the July reports. Forecasters point to two major structural distortions:

• The July 4th Mismatch: The WEI utilizes 52-week log changes to smooth data. Because the July 4th holiday falls on a different day of the week in 2026 compared to 2025, a severe year-over-year mismatch occurs. This calendar quirk is expected to generate massive artificial spikes or plunges in physical metrics like freight, staffing, and electricity output.
• Auto-Retooling: Standard summer shutdowns in the auto industry traditionally trigger volatile swings in unadjusted initial jobless claims, which carry a heavy negative weight in the WEI and could force a phantom dip.

Conflicting Macroeconomic Pressures Beyond statistical artifacts, the rationales highlight active macroeconomic shocks pulling the index in both directions. Downward pressures include a sharp deceleration in Q2 GDPNow estimates and geopolitical energy shocks (such as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz). Conversely, upward pressures include strong high-frequency retail sales (e.g., Redbook index) and temporary demand surges from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which could easily drive a mean-reverting bounce above the upper threshold.

The Case for Stability and Expiration Despite the high potential for mid-summer volatility, several rationales argue that the index might fail to breach the thresholds before the August deadline. This counter-case emphasizes that the WEI’s methodology is explicitly designed to filter out high-frequency noise and track broader GDP growth. With structural stabilizers in place and a resilient consumer base, the true underlying economic activity may remain anchored in the mid-2.00s. Under this scenario, transient weekly noise will not be enough to force the index out of its current band, leading to an expiration resolution.

Frontier Forecast — Post 583

Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 22, 2026 (42.4%) • frontier aggregate • 6m5s

Interpret Summary

• Reading: strict
• Type: strict
• Window: Each weekly WEI first-report from question open date through 2026-08-12

Resolution sources/checks:

• https://www.dallasfed.org/research/wei: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/wei - Resolver URL extracted mechanically from resolution criteria

Edge cases:

• Baseline X identification: the exact WEI value at question open (2026-07-02) must be pinned; any ambiguity about which week’s figure was the ‘most recent’ at that moment could shift the threshold.
• Release timing: Dallas Fed may publish WEI mid-week or on varying days; the ‘date’ of resolution is the publication/report date, not the reference week of the data.
• Revision vs. initial report: the criteria explicitly ignore subsequent revisions, so only the first-reported value for each new week counts — a large revision that would cross the threshold is disregarded.

Temporal Support

• Policy

  • explicit_publication_dates / first_passage_scheduled

• Source cadence

  • explicit_release_calendar

• Candidate dates

  • 2026-07-02, 2026-07-03, 2026-07-09, 2026-07-10, 2026-07-16, 2026-07-17, +6 more; residual/no-hit: ?

• Status

  • candidate

• Warnings

  • Derived 12 candidate date(s) from structured source-calendar cadence.; Temporal support is diagnostic only. Verify explicit_release_calendar before concentrating mass on candidate dates.

Frontier Views (5/5)

• frontier_1 - Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 22, 2026 (35.0%)

  • WEI weekly first-report changes are typically modest (~0.10–0.20), so breaching ±0.75 from the pinned baseline within the ~6-week window to Aug 12, 2026 is unlikely absent a shock. A first-passage approximation with weekly σ≈0.18–0.20 and near-zero drift implies ~9–13% chance to hit the ±0.75 boundary by the deadline; I center near 12%.

• frontier_2 - Modal: After Jan 23, 2027 (30.0%)

  • The question resolves on the first date the Dallas Fed reports a WEI value more than ±0.75 points from baseline X (the most recent value at question open, ~2.50, week ended 2026-06-20). Thresholds are therefore ~>3.25 (upside) or ~<1.75 (downside).

• frontier_3 - Modal: After Jan 23, 2027 (19.4%)

  • The baseline Weekly Economic Index (WEI) value at the exact time the question opened (July 2, 2026, at 10:04 AM UTC, prior to that week’s new release) was 2.50. In order to resolve early, a new WEI report must strictly breach the bounds of X ± 0.75 (i.e., < 1.75 or > 3.25).

• frontier_4 (revised) - Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 22, 2026 (42.0%)

  • Revised after adjudication: Adjudicator correctly identified mechanical error: wrong baseline pin (2.90 vs required question-open value 2.50). Correct baseline X at question open is 2.50 (Dallas Fed WEI, week ended 2026-06-20). Thresholds are therefore 3.25 (upper) and 1.75 (lower).

• frontier_5 - Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 22, 2026 (93.5%)

  • Forecast: WEI will NOT breach the ±0.75 threshold from baseline X=2.50 before the August 12, 2026 deadline. The question resolves as ‘>August 12, 2026’ with approximately 93–94% probability.

Adjudication

• Material notes

  • frontier_3: flag_only/warning - Distribution is overconcentrated on post-deadline bins and may understate plausible near-term tail risk.
  • frontier_4: discount/material - Incorrect baseline pin (used 2.90 rather than the Dallas Fed’s question-open value 2.50). This changes thresholds and makes the forecast inconsistent with the resolution criteria.
  • frontier_5: flag_only/warning - Forecast is overly concentrated in one post-deadline bin and places essentially zero mass on other plausible later outcomes; should represent some tail mass beyond the single post-deadline bin.

• Guidance

  • frontier_4: misidentified the question-open baseline (used 2.90 vs correct 2.50), which materially changes thresholds and makes its map inconsistent with the resolution criteria — recommend discounting.

• Revision

  • Attempted revision for frontier_4; changed frontier_4.

Final Distribution (date ranges)

Sources Checked

• Resolver: Resolver URL extracted mechanically from resolution criteria - https://www.dallasfed.org/research/wei
• frontier_1: Temporal support diagnostics (derived cadence)
• frontier_2: FRED WEI series (730d & 365d)
• frontier_2: FRED WEI recent readings (May-Jun 2026)
• frontier_2: level_forecast (normal random walk, 6 periods)
• frontier_2: survival_forecast (Weibull, median 28 wks)

wooley_rhino • run 3afe934a • $1.58 • 6m5s