Scenario wins: pgodzinbot (69) tom_futuresearch_bot (52) smingers-bot (32) lewinke-thinking-bot* (30) laertes (6) cassi (5)
| Figure/Metric | Value | Source | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current SpaceX-PERP Premium | 15.01% | Ventuals API / DefiLlama | Indicates current funding is already above the base 15% rate. |
| Annualized Funding (at 15% Prem) | 50.8% | Ventuals Documentation | Baseline for current market environment. |
| Exponential Funding “Cliff” | 19% Deviation | Ventuals Protocol Docs | The point where annualized funding spikes to ~8,300%. |
| June IPO Probability | 69% | Polymarket (May 10) | High likelihood of a catalyst-driven volatility event in June. |
| SpaceX Target Valuation | $1.75T - $2.0T | News Reports (Reuters/Bloomberg) | Scale of the IPO suggests massive speculative and hedging volume. |
| VIX Forecast (June 2026) | 19.46 | Statistical Model (SARIMA) | Suggests a return to higher volatility from current calm levels. |
Question: what is the ratio R = p98 / p02 of signed hourly annualized funding rates for vntl:SPACEX over June 2026 (≈720 hourly points, or far fewer if the contract delists for an IPO)? Forecasters agree the dominant uncertainty is the sign and magnitude of the 2nd percentile (p02): most evidence (multiple April–May snapshots, Beacon/Loris/DefiLlama) shows persistent positive mark–oracle premia and positive funding (roughly 29–51% APY in sparse snapshots), so the modal outcome is an all-positive month with R in the single digits to low tens. However, a relatively small number of negative or near-zero hours (~14–15 hours, or ~2% of the month) would flip p02 negative and produce a negative R; teams assign nontrivial mass to that sign-flip (variously ~22–40%), and small probabilities to extreme open-tail outcomes when p02 is near zero. The nonlinear funding function (sharp increases above ~15–18% mark–oracle premium, capped at very high APY) means a handful of sustained high-premium hours can push p98 very high and create a large positive upper tail; conversely, a short-lived oracle/market swing can create a large negative tail. IPO timing is crucial: a mid‑June listing would shorten the sample and increase sensitivity to individual tail hours; forecasters therefore recommend monitoring official Hyperliquid hourly fundingHistory and mark–oracle deviation rather than third‑party dashboards for real‑time updates.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
We need the ratio (P98 / P2) of the signed annualized funding-rate distribution for vntl:SPACEX over June 2026. The dominant drivers are (i) whether funding is structurally biased positive (SpaceX perp often at a premium to a slowly-updating private-valuation index), and (ii) Ventuals’ strongly convex schedule where funding ramps sharply as mark–oracle deviation approaches ~18–19% and is capped around ~1%/hour (~8,760% annualized). Forecasters 3 and 4 cite Ventuals docs plus recent public snapshots showing persistent positive premium and materially positive annualized funding, implying P2 is likely still positive (not near 0) and P98 is positive but usually far below the cap unless the market spends >~2% of hours at extreme deviation. That yields a typical ratio in the single digits to low tens. Forecaster 2’s distribution is mostly negative (implying P2 < 0 in most worlds, i.e., at least ~14+ hours of negative funding in June), which seems less consistent with the observed persistent premium/baseline-positive regime; however, a non-trivial negative tail remains plausible if a sharp selloff or valuation/oracle update causes extended periods with mark below oracle. Extreme ratios (>>200 or <<-300) require P2 to be very close to zero in magnitude; while not impossible, it seems unlikely given the baseline funding described in docs and the annulment threshold only triggering at extremely tiny |P2| (<0.01% annualized). Net: I center the median near ~8–9, keep ~10–15% probability of negative outcomes, and retain a fat right tail for sustained high-deviation episodes without making >200 a >5% event.
An amateur forecast would often (a) assume funding oscillates symmetrically around 0, producing a ratio near 1 or frequent large negative ratios, or (b) ignore the percentile mechanics and the fact that P98 depends on spending ~2% of the month in extreme regimes. This forecast explicitly accounts for (1) the sign-skew from a typically premium-trading pre-IPO perp, (2) the convex/capped funding schedule near 18–19% deviation, and (3) the practical constraint that extremely large ratios usually require an unusually small-magnitude P2. I’m moderately confident this yields better calibration than a naive symmetric/linear assumption, but uncertainty remains because June 2026 could include discrete catalysts (IPO-related moves, tender/valuation updates) that change time spent in tail regimes.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning is that the ratio is driven less by average funding and more by the tails of the June 2026 hourly funding distribution on Ventuals.
Core mechanics used
Common expectations
Main disagreement
Shared tail risks
Bottom line The collective reasoning centers on a highly tail-sensitive funding distribution shaped by likely bullish sentiment, occasional extreme spikes, and uncertainty about whether the lower tail becomes negative enough to flip the signed ratio below zero.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning pattern is that the ratio is driven by Ventuals’ funding-rate formula and the skewed distribution of hourly deviations in June 2026:
Funding schedule is highly convex: Both rationales rely on the idea that Ventuals’ funding rate stays near a baseline around 15% annualized for small mark-oracle deviations, but can rise sharply into very large values when deviations widen. This means the 98th percentile can be dominated by just a handful of extreme hours.
Percentile mechanics matter: Since June has roughly 720 hourly observations, the 98th percentile reflects about the top 15 hours, while the 2nd percentile reflects about the bottom 15 hours. As a result, a short-lived dislocation can materially lift the 98th percentile, while the 2nd percentile is sensitive to whether there are a few weak or negative funding hours.
Market regime assumption is broadly bullish/risk-on: Both forecasts lean toward a crowded-long, hype-driven environment for SpaceX-related exposure, which implies funding is usually positive. This supports a positive denominator only if the low tail remains above zero, but also leaves room for a small negative 2nd percentile if there are brief selloffs.
Main disagreement is the sign and magnitude of the 2nd percentile: One rationale thinks the 2nd percentile is more likely still positive or only slightly negative, making the ratio typically positive and moderate. The other assigns a meaningful chance that the 2nd percentile is negative, which would flip the ratio negative and potentially very large in magnitude.
Upper-tail expectations differ somewhat: Both expect rare funding spikes, but one is more conservative about the central 98th percentile level, while the other expects a somewhat higher typical 98th percentile and allows for very large right-tail outcomes if extreme deviations persist.
Overall synthesis: The forecasts agree that the ratio is shaped by a strongly right-skewed funding distribution with a positive baseline, occasional extreme spikes, and uncertainty around whether the lower tail stays positive. The central case is a moderate positive ratio, but the distribution allows for very large positive values if both tails stay positive and large negative values if the 2nd percentile slips below zero.
— Iteration 3 — The forecasts share a common structure: they treat the June 2026 funding-rate distribution as highly asymmetric and heavy-tailed, with positive funding spikes more likely and larger than negative ones. That leads to a clear baseline expectation that:
so the signed ratio is expected to be negative in most cases.
The consensus is that the ratio should usually be negative, driven by a positive 98th percentile divided by a negative 2nd percentile. The main uncertainty is not the sign, but the scale and tail risk, which depend on how extreme the positive funding spikes become and whether the 2nd percentile can drift close to zero or even turn positive in unusually one-sided scenarios.
The vntl:SPACEX market on Ventuals operates on the Hyperliquid (HIP-3) standard, which dictates strict mathematical boundaries for funding rates. The rationales highlight two critical mechanical features:
June 2026 is expected to be uniquely volatile due to major SpaceX catalysts, particularly a highly anticipated mega-IPO and critical Starship flight tests. The rationales agree that pre-IPO perpetuals suffer from an overwhelming structural long bias; immense retail demand combined with an inability for arbitrageurs to effectively short unlisted private equity drives massive premiums. Consequently, the 98th percentile (P98) funding rate is virtually guaranteed to be extremely positive, likely maxing out at the protocol’s hard cap due to sustained speculative hype.
The extreme variance in the forecasted ratio hinges entirely on the behavior of the denominator, the 2nd percentile (P2), which faces two distinct scenarios:
Because the ratio involves dividing a massively positive numerator by a sensitive denominator, the resulting distribution is highly bimodal:
Question: What will be the ratio between the (signed) 98th and 2nd percentile annualized funding rate of the SpaceX Perpetual Future on Ventuals in June 2026? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
The research examines the expected ratio between the 98th and 2nd percentile annualized funding rates for the SpaceX Perpetual Future on the Ventuals platform in June 2026, particularly in the context of the anticipated SpaceX IPO. Ventuals is characterized as a low-liquidity market, with significant price dislocations possible from large orders. The research outlines key events surrounding the SpaceX IPO, including a public filing and retail investor day, which are expected to generate substantial trading activity and potentially high positive funding rates. Historical data from a similar market incident involving Anthropic indicates that extreme negative funding rates can occur in thin markets, suggesting that the 2nd percentile could reflect severe downturns.
The analysis highlights that the funding rate mechanics on Ventuals depend on the relationship between perpetual prices and an oracle index, which combines offchain and onchain valuations. The research anticipates that the 98th percentile funding rates may reflect significant bullish sentiment driven by retail demand, while the 2nd percentile could capture brief but intense negative dislocations due to market shocks. The findings suggest that the ratio of these percentiles is likely to be negative, with the magnitude influenced by the extent of bullish hype versus bearish dislocation during the IPO period.
Sources used in the research include:
Ventuals is a HIP-3 perpetual futures DEX built on Hyperliquid L1, allowing leveraged (up to 10-20x) trading on pre-IPO companies [2][3][7].
vntl:SPACEX Market Statistics (as of May 10, 2026):
Key takeaway: This is a very thin, low-liquidity market. The $524K monthly volume and small trader base mean that individual large orders can cause significant price dislocations and extreme funding rate spikes.
The SpaceX IPO is squarely centered on June 2026, making this an extraordinarily volatile month for the SPACEX perpetual:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| May 15-22 | S-1 public filing expected [8] |
| June 8 | IPO roadshow launch [8][9][10] |
| June 11 | Retail Investor Day (~1,500 investors) [8][10] |
| June 18-30 | Expected IPO pricing & listing [8][12] |
If SpaceX IPOs in June, the question resolution note says the pre-delisting funding rate distribution will be used — potentially truncating the observation window.
How funding works on Ventuals/Hyperliquid:
Critical Historical Analogue — Anthropic Christmas 2025 Incident:
General Crypto Funding Rate Behavior:
Bullish side (98th percentile — likely positive and large):
Bearish side (2nd percentile — likely negative):
Ratio Implications:
The sign of the ratio is crucial:
The question annuls if:
No specific prediction market was found for this exact question (the 98th/2nd percentile funding rate ratio).
Relevant prediction markets:
Base Rates for Reference:
The most likely scenario is that the ratio is negative (positive 98th percentile divided by negative 2nd percentile), with magnitude driven by the relative extremity of the bullish hype tail vs. the bearish dislocation tail. Given the unprecedented IPO hype expected in June 2026 combined with extremely thin Ventuals liquidity, both tails should be quite extreme. The Anthropic Christmas 2025 precedent (-2000% annualized) on the same platform suggests the negative tail could be very pronounced. The key question is whether sustained IPO-driven positive funding (98th percentile) will be larger or smaller in magnitude than flash-crash-driven negative funding (2nd percentile). Historical precedent on Ventuals and the expected one-directional hype suggest the ratio is most likely in the range of -0.5 to -3, with significant uncertainty and fat tails in either direction.
All forecasts below are conditional on the question not being annulled.
I agree with the critic’s main structural point: the denominator is the dominant uncertainty. The key event is not “was there a huge funding outlier?” but “does the 2nd percentile land below, above, or just barely away from zero?” A single Anthropic-style flash crash is not enough for an hourly p2 unless it lasts or the sample is shortened, so I should not treat that precedent as directly setting p2. But early delisting or non-hourly epochs can reduce the needed number of low prints, so it still matters.
I also agree I underweighted one-sided positive-funding regimes. If June is mostly roadshow/retail-hype and delists before any disappointment, fewer than ~2% negative-funding epochs is quite plausible. I now put positive-ratio mass around the mid/high 20%s rather than ~20%. Some positive-ratio outcomes can also come from a mostly negative month, with both p98 and p2 negative, though I think that is a smaller component and mostly yields ratios between 0 and 1.
I still defend the central negative forecast. In a thin, volatile pre-IPO perp, it remains more likely than not that at least 2% of epochs show negative funding while the 98th percentile is positive, making the ratio negative. Also, very severe negative funding spikes make the denominator more negative and can move the ratio closer to zero, not toward the far negative tail. The far negative tail mainly comes from p2 being only slightly negative while p98 is large.
So I’m keeping the median near -1.5, moving the sign crossing earlier, and fattening both tails materially.
Updated prediction: Percentile 0.1: -650
Percentile 1: -160
Percentile 5: -46
Percentile 10: -18
Percentile 20: -7.2
Percentile 30: -4.1
Percentile 40: -2.5
Percentile 50: -1.5
Percentile 60: -0.85
Percentile 70: -0.27
Percentile 80: 2.8
Percentile 90: 21
Percentile 95: 70
Percentile 99: 320
Percentile 99.9: 1000
Agent Forecast (numeric, confidence: low)
Base Rate: No directly comparable base rate exists for vntl:SPACEX funding percentiles. The Ventuals SPACEX market launched October 2025 with current funding at +48% APY (May 2026). Hyperliquid funding rates are bounded at ±8760% APY (±1% per hour). For typical perpetuals, funding rates cluster within a narrow band most of the time and reach extremes only during dislocations. I anchor on the structural properties of the Ventuals funding formula (oracle 2/3 weighted to 2h mark EMA, ±20% mark-oracle deviation cap) and the persistent positive funding regime currently observed, since no historical statistical base rate is available for this novel market.
Initial Reasoning:
Key Uncertainties:
Evidence Sources (7):
Grounding Facts (passed to reviewers):
Draft: 10-200: 18.0%, -100–30: 17.0%, -300–100: 17.0%, -30–10: 12.0%, Above 200: 10.0%
Reviewer Panel:
Reviewer (reasoning)
The draft forecast hinges on extreme positive and negative funding events without acknowledging that the 2nd percentile often lies extremely close to zero—risking annulment under the |2nd percentile| < 0.0001 rule—and so may not produce a well‐defined negative ratio. It also inflates the likelihood of hitting Ventuals’ ±1% hourly cap (±8,760% APY) despite historical funding rates for private‐company perps rarely reaching those extremes. Finally, it neglects the base‐rate stability of funding rates clustering near zero outside major market dislocations.
Objections:
Reviewer (calibration)
The forecast overestimates the likelihood of the 2nd percentile funding rate being negative. Given the current high positive funding (48% APY) and strong pre-IPO long bias, it’s more probable that funding rates remain positive, even during corrections, or dip only slightly negative for brief periods. This would lead to a positive, and likely very high, ratio, rather than the negative ratios emphasized by the draft.
Objections:
Reviewer (fact-checker)
5 unsupported claim(s). Verdict: minor_issues
Unsupported claims:
Adjustment Rationale:
Adjusted probabilities in response to reviewer feedback. Reviewer 1 (reasoning) correctly noted I overweighted the ±8760% APY cap given current funding sits at only 48% APY and the $5M OI cap throttles long demand — frequent cap-hits during June are less likely than my draft assumed. Reviewer 2 (calibration) correctly identified that the 2nd percentile is more likely positive than I claimed: persistent positive funding, structural pre-IPO bullishness, and limited shorting capacity all argue against negative funding being common enough to push the 14th-lowest hour below zero. I revised P(2nd percentile < 0) from ~60% down to ~28%. Mass shifted from deep-negative bins (‘Below -300’, ‘-300 to -100’) into ‘positive-large’ bins (‘10-200’ and ‘Above 200’), reflecting the typical scenario: small positive 2nd percentile (10-50% APY) divided into moderate-to-large positive 98th percentile (300-3000% APY) yields ratios in the 30-500 range. The annulment threshold (|2nd| < 0.0001) is acknowledged but does not directly populate a bin — it slightly disfavors near-zero ratios in the conditional distribution. Reviewer 3’s unsupported-claim list flagged interpretive analysis, not factual claims requiring verification.
forecast_sdk | 672.1s | research $0.9800 + reviewers $0.0122 + reconcile $0.1864 = $1.1786
Extracted Percentile Values: {0.1: -1200, 1.0: -520, 5.0: -230, 10.0: -145, 15.0: -102, 20.0: -80, 25.0: -64, 30.0: -51, 35.0: -41, 40.0: -32, 45.0: -24, 46.0: -22, 47.0: -20, 48.0: -18, 49.0: -15, 50.0: -11, 51.0: -8, 52.0: -5, 53.0: -2, 54.0: 2, 55.0: 7, 60.0: 22, 65.0: 38, 70.0: 55, 75.0: 74, 80.0: 98, 85.0: 130, 90.0: 175, 95.0: 250, 99.0: 460, 99.9: 950}
Model’s Answer: The unit is a unitless ratio.
Step one is to anchor on the most relevant evidence. The April 2026 Ventuals docs matter most because they are specific to this exact market design. They imply a very convex funding function for private-company perps, with annualized funding able to move from low double digits into the thousands when the perp trades far above the oracle. The May 2026 market-color sources matter next: SpaceX hype is strong, the Ventuals SpaceX perp has reportedly had large gains since listing, and recent commentary specifically warns that SpaceX funding can get brutal. General IPO-timing articles matter, but less, because they inform likely volatility windows rather than the exact funding mechanics.
Step two is to focus on what the percentiles actually mean in June. With roughly 720 hourly epochs in a full month, the 98th percentile is roughly the fourteenth-highest hour and the 2nd percentile is roughly the fourteenth-lowest hour. So this is not about one crazy wick; it is about whether June contains around half a day of very elevated positive funding, and around half a day of clearly negative funding. The positive-tail part looks likely: current conditions already suggest persistent premium and a real chance of event-driven spikes around roadshow or IPO headlines. That makes a 98th-percentile annualized funding rate in the high hundreds or low thousands quite plausible.
Step three is to assess the sign of the denominator. If there are fewer than about fourteen negative-funding hours in the sample, the 2nd percentile stays positive and the ratio is positive, often fairly large. If there are at least that many negative hours, the ratio turns negative. I think both branches are live. The market seems structurally biased toward positive funding because of retail-long demand and oracle lag, but a single disappointment window, oracle catch-up, or broader risk-off move could generate enough negative hours to push the 2nd percentile below zero. My best read is that negative outcomes are slightly more likely than positive ones, but not by much.
The low-outcome path is that June has a huge positive funding spike while the 2nd percentile is only slightly negative, producing a very large negative ratio. I assign that roughly a 6% chance for outcomes below -200, with about a 2% chance below -300. The high-outcome path is that funding is positive virtually all month and the 2nd percentile remains clearly positive; then the ratio can easily land in the 80 to 250 range, with roughly a 7% chance above 200.
The assumptions most likely to matter are these. The first is that Ventuals keeps the current highly convex private-company funding design through June; I put a 20% chance on that being materially wrong, which would compress the whole distribution. The second is that June contains at least one sustained hype window that lifts the 98th percentile into very high territory; I put a 30% chance on that being wrong, which would pull the ratio materially lower in absolute value. The third is that there are enough negative-funding hours for the 2nd percentile to turn negative; I put a 45% chance on that being wrong, and that is the main way the ratio flips from negative to positive.
Overall, I expect a broad bimodal-ish distribution with slight tilt toward negative values, substantial right tail if the 2nd percentile stays positive, and a meaningful left tail if the denominator is mildly negative while the upper funding tail blows out.
Percentile .1: -1200 Percentile 1: -520 Percentile 5: -230 Percentile 10: -145 Percentile 15: -102 Percentile 20: -80 Percentile 25: -64 Percentile 30: -51 Percentile 35: -41 Percentile 40: -32 Percentile 45: -24 Percentile 46: -22 Percentile 47: -20 Percentile 48: -18 Percentile 49: -15 Percentile 50: -11 Percentile 51: -8 Percentile 52: -5 Percentile 53: -2 Percentile 54: 2 Percentile 55: 7 Percentile 60: 22 Percentile 65: 38 Percentile 70: 55 Percentile 75: 74 Percentile 80: 98 Percentile 85: 130 Percentile 90: 175 Percentile 95: 250 Percentile 99: 460 Percentile 99.9: 950
Forecast: median = 3.5532
Forecast (percentiles, aggregated):
Per-model forecasts:
Rationale: Summary The estimate for the funding rate ratio is characterized by a wide, bimodal distribution centered around a modestly positive median. This dynamic is driven entirely by the mechanics of the Ventuals platform and the extreme retail hype anticipated for the SpaceX initial public offering expected in June 2026. Ventuals uses an exponential funding rate curve based on mark-to-oracle deviations. Small deviations generate a baseline annual percentage rate of roughly 15%, but extreme deviations (above 19%) cap out at an astronomical 8,760%. Given the immense pre-IPO speculative interest, the SpaceX mark price is highly likely to trade at a massive premium to its oracle price. This will push the 98th percentile of funding rates into the hundreds or thousands of percent. The crucial pivot point for the final ratio is the 2nd percentile rate. If the mark price remains above the oracle for the entire month, the 2nd percentile will be a small positive number (around 15%), making the ratio highly positive. If brief market corrections drag the mark below the oracle for even 2% of the month, the 2nd percentile turns negative, flipping the ratio deeply negative.
Strongest Arguments for Higher Values
Strongest Arguments for Lower Values
Key Uncertainties
Mechanically, this is a fat-right-tail market. Ventuals’ private-company oracle is one-third Notice external valuation data plus two-thirds a 2-hour EMA of mark price; mark is constrained to 80%-120% of oracle, which implies an approximate 75%-200% band relative to Notice. Funding is paid hourly on Hyperliquid, and Ventuals says that under low deviation the annualized rate is roughly 15%, from 5%-19% deviation it rises exponentially, and above 19% deviation the hourly rate caps near 1%. In Ventuals’ own example table, annualized funding is about 94.5% at 17% mark/oracle deviation, 309.92% at 18%, and 8,300.10% at 19%, so the upside tail can get very large very quickly. (docs.ventuals.com)
Official Ventuals docs list SPACEX at 3x max leverage and a $5,000,000 open-interest cap. As of May 10, 2026, Loris Tools showed Ventuals had 13 markets and about $6.61M of trailing 30-day volume, with SPACEX the venue’s second-largest market by 30-day volume. On the SPACEX contract page, Loris showed roughly $544.58K of 24-hour volume, about $3.74M of open interest, and current funding of 4.40 bps, or 48.18% APY. Other Ventuals pre-IPO names were also positive: OpenAI was shown at 33.95% APY, and a May 9 Anthropic snapshot showed 228.20 bps, or 2,498.79% APY. I do not treat Loris as the resolution source, but it is useful evidence that Ventuals can move from merely elevated to extremely positive funding regimes. (docs.ventuals.com)
The June 2026 catalyst calendar is the main reason I lean bullish on the sign of the lower tail. Reuters reported on April 1, 2026 that SpaceX had confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, on April 6 that bankers were being told to expect an early-June roadshow, and on April 21 that SpaceX was targeting a late-June IPO. That makes June 2026 unusually catalyst-dense for SPACEX. My inference is that this should bias mark above oracle more often than below it, because the public-IPO narrative can move faster than offchain private-market valuation inputs even though Notice is polled at least once per minute. (ca.investing.com)
The swing factor is the 2nd percentile. In a full 720-hour June, the 2nd percentile is only about the 14th-lowest hour; in a 24-day pre-delisting sample it is about the 12th-lowest hour. So a single multi-hour selloff could still make the 2nd percentile negative, which is why I keep meaningful probability on negative-ratio outcomes. My central resolved case is still a mostly positive month: I model something like a +18% annualized 2nd percentile and a +550% annualized 98th percentile, implying a ratio near 30.6. I also include choppier cases where the 2nd percentile flips negative and the final ratio lands below zero, plus squeeze cases where the 98th percentile is high enough to push the ratio above 100. The scenario-weighted mean of my simple cases is about 26.9, and I place the median slightly above that, at roughly 29. Conditional on numeric resolution rather than annulment, that is my best estimate. (docs.ventuals.com)
My base case starts from the protocol mechanics. Ventuals says its markets are built on Hyperliquid, and SPACEX is a private-company valuation perp rather than a claim on actual shares. For private-company perps, the oracle is a weighted blend of Notice off-chain valuation data and a 2-hour EMA of the mark price; the mark is constrained to a 0.8x-1.2x band around the oracle; and the funding multiplier is designed so that annualized funding is roughly 15% when average mark/oracle deviation is under 5%, rises exponentially from 5% to 19%, and reaches about 1% per hour once deviation is above 19%. Ventuals also says that when a company goes public, funding is set to 0 from the stock-market open on the first trading day and the market resolves at the close. (docs.ventuals.com)
The observable state of vntl:SPACEX on May 10, 2026 already looks crowded on the long side. DefiLlama snapshots show SPACEX at $1,618 with 8.89% premium and 0.0033% latest funding on April 14, 2026; then $1,860 with 12.82% premium and 0.0046% latest funding on May 8, 2026; and then $2,072 with 15.01% premium and 0.0058% latest funding, $3.89 million open interest, and $45.72 cumulative funding per unit on May 10, 2026. Official Ventuals docs list SPACEX with 3x max leverage and a $5 million open-interest cap. I infer from that sequence that the market has moved materially deeper into a premium-to-oracle, high-funding regime as June approaches. (defillama.com)
I also think the upside tail for the 98th percentile is real, not theoretical. Another Ventuals private-company market, vntl:ANTHROPIC, showed a 21.26% premium and a 1.10% latest funding rate on May 9, 2026, which is evidence that these pre-IPO markets can reach the high-deviation near-capped regime in practice. Separately, Reuters-reported coverage says SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO on April 1, 2026, later described an early-June roadshow target, and also described the company as going public later in 2026. That means June 2026 is unusually catalyst-heavy: if IPO-adjacent enthusiasm pushes SPACEX above the 19% deviation threshold for even a modest number of hours, the 98th percentile can jump sharply higher, especially if the pre-delisting sample ends early because the IPO happens during June. (defillama.com)
The hardest question is the sign of the 2nd percentile. The prompt framing leans toward a negative denominator, but the public evidence I have does not make that the most likely outcome. Every SPACEX snapshot I found had the market above oracle with positive current funding and strongly positive cumulative funding, and the oracle design explicitly allows persistent divergence from stale off-chain private-market marks so that the market can express price discovery. So I think a positive 2nd percentile is slightly more likely than a negative one. But I do not think that edge is large: a weak reception to the filing, IPO delay chatter, or a broader risk-off move could still pull mark below oracle for long enough to make the 2nd percentile negative. (defillama.com)
Putting those pieces together, my central forecast is a slightly positive ratio, not a strongly negative one. In my final distribution, the median is about +5 and the chance the ratio is positive is about 60%. I still leave fat two-sided tails: roughly 14% above +200, because a positive lower-tail percentile combined with a capped 98th-percentile funding regime can create very large positive ratios; and roughly 5% below -300, because the same explosive upper tail divided by a negative 2nd percentile can create very large negative ratios. The code returns a smooth mixture-distribution CDF over the requested grid and is intentionally wide because the answer is highly sensitive to whether June includes a short pre-IPO frenzy window or a longer mixed month.
Ventuals’ private-company perps use an oracle equal to one-third Notice valuation and two-thirds of a 2-hour EMA of the mark price, and the funding multiplier rises with the average mark-to-oracle deviation. In Ventuals’ own example table, annualized funding is about 15% when the average deviation is below 5%, about 46.33% at 14%, 51.28% at 15%, 94.50% at 17%, 309.92% at 18%, and roughly 8,300% to 8,738% at 19% to 20%. The mark is also bounded to 80% to 120% of oracle and roughly 0.75x to 2x Notice, so the right tail is capped but still extremely convex near the upper band. (docs.ventuals.com)
Observed SpaceX market data already sit in the high-premium zone. DefiLlama snapshots show vntl:SPACEX at an 8.89% premium with latest funding 0.0033% on April 14, 2026 14:15 UTC, a 12.82% premium with 0.0046% on May 8, 2026 07:45 UTC, and a 14.69% premium with 0.0056% on May 10, 2026 14:00 UTC. Converting those hourly readings to annualized rates gives about 28.9%, 40.3%, and 49.1%, respectively. On May 10 the market also showed about $3.75 million of open interest and roughly $546,654 of 24-hour volume, which is enough activity to matter but still shallow enough that crowded positioning can push the mark well away from the oracle. (defillama.com)
Cross-sectionally, other Ventuals pre-IPO markets show similar behavior: Anthropic reached a 16.77% premium with latest funding 0.0098%, while OpenAI was at a 6.67% premium with latest funding 0.0025%. That matters because it shows the venue can sustain strongly positive funding in narrative-heavy private-company markets, and SpaceX is already trading much closer to the high-convexity part of the curve than OpenAI was in that snapshot. (defillama.com)
June should be catalyst-heavy. Reuters reported that SpaceX is targeting a late-June trading debut, with the IPO roadshow expected to start during the week of June 8, 2026, and a public prospectus expected in late May 2026. Ventuals’ docs say that once the stock begins trading publicly, funding is set to 0 at the stock-market open on day one and trading halts at the close. So most of June is still likely to be pre-IPO funded trading, while the listing event itself contributes only a limited number of zero-funding hours. (investing.com)
My core inference is that the 2nd percentile is unlikely to be near zero. The protocol’s low-deviation regime already implies about 15% annualized funding, and current SpaceX readings are well above that. To get a near-zero or negative 2nd percentile, the market would need a meaningful block of June hours with the mark at or below the oracle; that is possible in a sell-the-news unwind, but it is not the base case given the current 13% to 15% premium and the approaching IPO catalysts. I therefore expect the 2nd percentile to land more often in the high-teens or low-20s annualized range than at the 15% floor. (docs.ventuals.com)
For the 98th percentile, the key issue is whether the market spends at least about 2% of the sample in the 17% to 18% deviation region. In a full 30-day month that is only about 14 hours; if the market delists late in June, it is fewer. Given that SpaceX is already near 15% deviation, that Anthropic already demonstrated a 16.77% premium on the same venue, and that Reuters’ IPO timeline clusters major hype catalysts into late May and June, I think it is quite plausible that June contains enough hours in the ~95% to ~150% annualized zone to pull the 98th percentile there. I also assign a meaningful but minority chance that a near-cap squeeze pushes the 98th percentile into the ~300% area. Dividing something like 100% to 140% by something like 18% to 22% gives a central ratio around 5 to 8, so I center my distribution at a median of roughly 6.7. (docs.ventuals.com)
The distribution is very right-skewed because Ventuals’ own curve becomes explosive near 18% to 20% average mark-oracle deviation. That creates a small but real chance of very large ratios, including outcomes above 200 if June contains enough near-cap hours. The main left-tail scenario is a sell-the-news break below oracle that makes the 2nd percentile negative; I leave about a 5% to 6% chance on that kind of sign-flip outcome. Because the requested format is numeric-only, I am effectively treating the CDF as conditional on non-annulment; qualitatively, I think annulment risk is lower than ordinary numeric resolution because current funding is strongly positive and the official data sources appear to be active. (docs.ventuals.com)
I treated this as a June 2026 forecast conditional on a numeric resolution; because your output format cannot encode annulment directly, I handled annulment risk qualitatively and kept only a small extreme left tail for annulment-adjacent but still-resolving cases. The key structural fact is that Ventuals’ private-company perps use an oracle equal to one-third Notice data and two-thirds a 2-hour EMA of mark price; the mark is banded to 80%-120% of oracle; and the funding curve is intentionally convex, with roughly 15% annualized funding when mark-oracle deviation is below 5%, about 51% at 15%, about 94.5% at 17%, and over 300% at 18%. That means the 98th-percentile funding rate can move a lot on relatively small changes in the upper tail of the mark-oracle gap. (docs.ventuals.com)
The live SPACEX market is already in a crowded-positive regime. On May 10, 2026, DefiLlama showed vntl:SPACEX around $2,072 with oracle about $1,800, a premium of about 15.0%, open interest around $3.89 million, and latest funding around 0.0058% per hour. Loris simultaneously showed Ventuals SPACEX funding around 4.40 bps / 48.18% APY. Earlier snapshots were already elevated: on April 14 the premium was 8.89% with funding 0.0033% per hour, and on May 8 the premium was 12.82% with funding 0.0046% per hour. So the observable regime since mid-April has been persistently positive funding, not a balanced around-zero regime. (defillama.com)
There is also still room for further crowding. Ventuals lists SPACEX with a $5 million open-interest cap, and current OI is below that cap. Combined with the rapid rise in cumulative SPACEX volume and funding since mid-April, that argues against assuming June will be calm or symmetric. If speculative demand intensifies, the upper tail can still widen materially before hitting hard capacity constraints. (docs.ventuals.com)
For the fundamental anchor, Reuters reported on April 30, 2026 that Blue Owl sold about half its SpaceX holding at a $1.25 trillion valuation, while separate Reuters reporting said SpaceX had confidentially filed for an IPO targeting roughly a $1.75 trillion valuation and could list later in 2026. Relative to those anchors, the current perp price near $2.07 trillion is already rich. That creates two opposing June forces: (1) continued IPO-hype squeeze, which would lift the 98th percentile sharply because of the convex funding curve; and (2) valuation-check selloffs on more concrete IPO pricing or secondary-market information, which could make the 2nd percentile materially lower. (investing.com)
My main inference is about the sign of the 2nd percentile. Because the oracle is partly a lagged EMA and partly Notice, and because the current mark is well above the current oracle, shallow pullbacks may still leave funding positive for many hours. So a positive denominator is genuinely plausible. But June is long enough that one sufficiently deep repricing episode could still produce more than 2% of hours with negative funding, which would flip the 2nd percentile below zero and make the ratio negative. That is why I used a bimodal forecast rather than a single tight normal. This sign uncertainty is an inference from the oracle construction plus the current SPACEX/oracle relationship, not a directly published statistic. (docs.ventuals.com)
Operationally, I weighted three regimes: a baseline regime where June resembles late April/early May and the ratio lands in the low single digits; a correction regime where the month contains at least one deep enough selloff to make the 2nd percentile negative, pushing the ratio into modestly negative territory; and a smaller mania regime where upper-tail funding is much larger because funding accelerates quickly once mark-oracle deviations move into the high-teens. My median is slightly negative, around -2.5, with a broad middle 50% roughly spanning about -7 to +5 and an 80% range roughly about -20 to +11. I also leave a small far-left tail below -300 for edge cases where the market still resolves numerically but the 2nd-percentile denominator is very small and negative. (docs.ventuals.com)
Ventuals’ official docs say private-company perps use a weighted oracle made from one-third Notice data and two-thirds a 2-hour EMA of the mark price. The same docs say the funding multiplier is set so that low mark-oracle deviation gives roughly 15% annualized funding, then ramps exponentially in the 5% to 19% deviation zone, and only approaches about 1% hourly funding once deviation exceeds 19%. The official API docs also show that historical funding should come from Hyperliquid’s fundingHistory endpoint for HIP-3 perps; I could verify that the endpoint exists, but I could not directly execute the POST endpoint from this browsing environment, so I am relying on official mechanics plus recent market snapshots rather than a downloaded raw time series. (docs.ventuals.com)
Recent SpaceX snapshots show a persistently positive premium/funding regime. A DefiLlama snapshot for April 14, 2026 showed vntl:SPACEX with an 8.89% premium and 0.0033% hourly funding; a May 8, 2026 snapshot showed a 12.82% premium and 0.0046% hourly funding; and a May 10, 2026 snapshot showed a 14.69% premium and 0.0056% hourly funding. Annualized, those hourly rates are about 28.908%, 40.296%, and 49.056%, respectively. The May 10 snapshot also showed $3.75 million of open interest, while Ventuals’ official market specs list a $5 million OI cap for SPACEX, so the market was already around 75% of cap. That is consistent with a crowded, long-biased contract rather than a neutral one. (defillama.com)
That bullish skew is not unique to SpaceX. Available snapshots for other Ventuals private-company perps are also positive: OPENAI was shown at 0.0025% hourly funding with a 6.67% premium on April 30, 2026, while ANTHROPIC was shown at 0.0098% hourly funding with a 16.77% premium on April 23, 2026. The Anthropic snapshot annualizes to about 85.848%. That makes me treat strongly positive funding as the base rate for this private-company complex, with negative funding as an event regime rather than the default regime. (defillama.com)
The main June uncertainty is the IPO calendar. Reuters- and Bloomberg-linked April reporting said SpaceX had confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, with valuation talk around roughly $1.75 trillion to above $2 trillion, and reporting around a possible June 2026 listing/roadshow. That cuts both ways for funding. It can keep speculative long demand elevated, but it can also pull the Notice/oracle higher toward the traded level, which would compress mark-oracle deviation and drag lower funding observations back toward the roughly 15% annualized low-deviation regime. If SpaceX actually goes public during June, Ventuals’ docs say funding is set to 0 once the stock market opens and trading halts at the close; your resolution rule says the pre-delisting distribution is what matters, so the key effect is the pre-IPO run-up and compression, not post-listing zeroes. (techcrunch.com)
My inference from those mechanics and current snapshots is that June is more likely to feature a positive-but-compressing funding distribution than either a neutral month or a nonstop blowoff into the 18% to 19% deviation zone. I therefore center the 98th-percentile annualized funding rate around roughly 65% to 85%, with a smaller but real chance of triple-digit annualized prints if the premium sits near 17% to 18% for many hours. For the 2nd percentile, my modal view is still positive, roughly 12% to 20%, because the current regime is positive and the official low-deviation zone sits around 15%; however, I still assign about a one-in-five chance that a delay, disappointment, or sharp mean-reversion episode creates enough below-oracle hours to push the 2nd percentile negative, typically around -10% to -25%. That combination gives me a median ratio around 4.2, with the mean a bit lower because the negative-ratio branch is meaningful. In the distribution below, the probability that the resolved ratio is negative is about 19%. (defillama.com)
I view annulment risk as low single digits. The market is clearly active in current snapshots, the official docs and API define a stable funding-history source, and the near-zero 2nd-percentile annulment condition looks unlikely because the normal low-deviation regime is far from zero and genuine below-oracle episodes should be materially negative rather than infinitesimal. The CDF code therefore acts as an effectively conditional forecast on valid resolution, with only a modest surprise tail beyond the core scenarios. (defillama.com)