I start from the official structure of the race: Los Angeles holds its nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026, and the City Clerk’s certified list shows a 14-candidate mayoral field including Karen Bass, Nithya Raman, Spencer Pratt, Adam Miller and Rae Huang. (clerk.lacity.gov)

The polling picture says Bass is very likely to place first, while second is a real Pratt-Raman toss-up but no longer a pure coin flip. In the March 9–15 UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll of 840 likely voters, Bass led with 25%, Raman had 17%, and Pratt 14%; in UCLA Luskin’s March 15–29 poll of 813 likely primary voters, Bass had 25%, Pratt 11%, Raman 9%, with 40% undecided. (latimes.com) By early May, Tavern Research found Bass 22%, Pratt 18%, Raman 16%, though that poll still showed an enormous undecided bloc and was commissioned by pro-growth groups. (tavernresearch.com) The clearest late public poll, Emerson/Inside California Politics (May 9–10; LA subsample n=350), had Bass 30%, Pratt 22%, Raman 20%, and just 16% undecided. (latimes.com) The newest poll I found, Cygnal (May 15–18; n=500), had Bass 25%, Pratt 22%, Raman 18%, with Pratt gaining on its informed ballot. (cygn.al)

Using those public polls, I put the most weight on recency and sample size, while discounting clearly commissioned/private polls relative to the academic/media polls. On that basis, Pratt’s raw advantage over Raman in the second-place battle is small but persistent: Berkeley was Raman +3, UCLA was Pratt +2, Tavern Pratt +2, Emerson Pratt +2, and Cygnal Pratt +4. That weighted trend leaves Pratt modestly ahead overall, but with enough polling and house uncertainty that Raman is still very live. (latimes.com)

Why I still shade Pratt ahead: his coalition looks a bit more turnout-efficient for a low-salience municipal primary. Emerson found Pratt stronger with men, independents, Latinos, and especially older voters than Raman; Raman led under-40 voters 31% to Pratt’s 13%, but Emerson’s own critics noted the sample may have been younger than the eventual electorate, and actual turnout is often older. (latimes.com) Pratt also has real late-money and attention advantages: he raised $2.72 million from April 19 to May 16 versus about $401,000 for Raman, and his campaign still had the most cash on hand among the leading candidates. (latimes.com) In addition, AP reported that Pratt’s viral social-media campaign had already turned him into a serious runoff contender while early voting was underway. (apnews.com)

Why Raman still has a substantial chance: she has the clearer path to consolidating anti-Bass Democratic voters if late deciders become tactical, and in Emerson’s forced-lean follow-up she edged Pratt among voters who had not yet chosen. (latimes.com) She is also much stronger with younger voters and Asian/Pacific Islander voters, and a late youth/progressive turnout bump could flip second place. (latimes.com) But her coalition is not fully consolidated. DSA-LA only “recommended” rather than formally endorsed her because Rae Huang is also in the race, and Los Angeles Times reporting says some police-union activity around Huang appears aimed at siphoning votes from Raman. (latimes.com) On top of that, three DSA-aligned/progressive councilmembers endorsed Bass rather than Raman, which is another sign that the left is fractured instead of unified behind her. (latimes.com)

Bass as the answer means Bass finishes second, not first. I think that is possible but clearly not the base case. She has led every public poll I found and remains strongest with women, Black voters, and older voters, while still leading Latinos in Emerson. (latimes.com) So a Bass-second outcome mostly requires one challenger to surge past her while she still stays ahead of the rest. Given her very high unfavorables and the anti-incumbent mood, I cannot make that probability tiny, but it is still materially below either Pratt or Raman. (latimes.com)

I keep a non-trivial ‘Any other candidate’ bucket because Adam Miller and Rae Huang have each polled in the mid-single digits, both have money or organizational pockets, and the race is fragmented enough that weird vote-splitting scenarios exist. (latimes.com) Still, no recent public poll has either of them close to the low-20s territory that probably wins second place, so that bucket remains small. (latimes.com)

Bottom line: Bass is still the most likely first-place finisher; the real question is Pratt versus Raman for second. Recent polls, older-turnout risk for Raman, Republican/independent consolidation for Pratt, and Pratt’s late fundraising push make Pratt the plurality favorite, but not by a huge margin. My final forecast is Pratt 51.2%, Raman 34.1%, Bass 10.2%, and Any other candidate 4.5%.

As of Monday, May 25, 2026, there are eight days left until the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary. The official certified list shows a crowded 14-candidate field for mayor, including Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt, Nithya Raman, Adam Miller and Rae Chen Huang. Ballots began mailing on April 30, 2026, and Los Angeles County vote centers opened on May 23, so some meaningful share of the electorate is already voting. (cityclerk.lacity.org)

The core fact is that Bass looks likeliest to finish first, while second has narrowed to a Pratt-versus-Raman fight. In the public polls I found, Berkeley/Los Angeles Times in March had Bass 25%, Raman 17%, Pratt 14%; UCLA Luskin later had Bass 25%, Pratt 11%, Raman 9% with 40% undecided; Tavern on May 1–4 had Bass 22%, Pratt 18%, Raman 16%; Emerson on May 9–10 had Bass 30%, Pratt 22%, Raman 19%; and Cygnal on May 15–18 had Bass 25%, Pratt 22%, Raman 18%. So Pratt has been ahead of Raman in four of the five public polls I found, and in the three most recent polls he led Raman every time. (latimes.com)

The demographic and coalition evidence cuts both ways, but on balance it slightly favors Pratt for second. Emerson found Raman strongest with voters under 40 (31%), while Pratt was stronger with men and Bass dominated older voters; Cygnal similarly had Raman strongest among under-65 and college voters, but Pratt strongest among Republicans and independents and at 30% among voters 65+. My inference from those subgroup splits is that Pratt’s coalition is a bit better aligned with a low-salience primary electorate than Raman’s, though that is a judgment call rather than a directly measured fact. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Momentum indicators also lean Pratt. The Los Angeles Times reported on May 22 that Pratt led the latest campaign-finance period, raising nearly 10 times more than Bass; earlier April reporting said both Pratt and Raman were ahead of Bass in 2026 fundraising. At the same time, Bass has consolidated establishment help: Kamala Harris endorsed her, and three progressive City Council members who might have been natural Raman allies instead endorsed Bass. That combination helps Bass hold first place while making it harder for Raman to consolidate all anti-Bass Democratic and progressive voters. A separate Los Angeles Times report also said a union-funded anti-Pratt ad looked, to analysts, as if it could actually help Pratt make the runoff. (latimes.com)

The case for Raman is still real, which is why I am not making Pratt overwhelmingly likely. Bass remains well below 50% in every public poll, and undecideds are still meaningful in several surveys: 40% in UCLA, 46% in Tavern, 16% in Emerson, and 19% in Cygnal. Emerson’s leaned-undecided readout essentially tied Raman and Pratt for second, showing that late deciders could still break toward her. (newsroom.ucla.edu)

I still give Bass a meaningful but clearly minority chance of finishing second. She leads every public poll, so a Bass-second outcome mostly requires a final anti-incumbent surge that lifts Pratt into first while Bass barely stays ahead of Raman. That is not impossible: Cygnal found a 30% right-direction / 58% wrong-track mood, and Pratt has money plus late attention. But because Bass leads all public polls and has establishment support, I think first place remains her likeliest outcome by a wide margin, which limits her second-place probability to the low double digits. (latimes.com)

Any other candidate is a long shot. The field is crowded, but the strongest non-Bass/Pratt/Raman numbers I found were still only mid-single digits — Miller at 7% in Emerson and Huang at 8% in Berkeley/Los Angeles Times — and with ballots already mailed and in-person voting underway, the window for an outsider leap into second is now very small. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Quantitatively, I started from a recency-weighted average of the public polls, which puts Pratt modestly ahead of Raman and Bass clearly ahead of both on the topline. I then widened uncertainty for house effects, late shifts, and turnout surprises, and added small structural adjustments: positive for Pratt on momentum/fundraising, negative for Pratt on partisan ceiling (Los Angeles County registration is 51.1% Democratic versus 18.7% Republican, an imperfect but still relevant proxy), negative for Raman because Bass has denied her some natural endorsements, and a modest floor for Bass because incumbents who still lead a week out rarely collapse all the way to third. That leaves Pratt as the most likely second-place finisher, Raman as the clear alternative, Bass as a live but smaller upset case, and everyone else as a remote tail outcome. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

The official qualified-candidate list shows 14 candidates for Los Angeles mayor on the June 2, 2026 primary ballot, which keeps the threshold for finishing second relatively low. At the same time, voting is already underway: Los Angeles County began mailing vote-by-mail ballots on April 30, and initial vote centers opened on May 23, so some meaningful share of the electorate is probably already locked in. (content.lavote.gov)

My starting point is the polling trend. Emerson’s March 7-9 poll had Bass at 20%, Pratt at 10%, Raman at 9%, with 51% undecided. The UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll from March 9-15 had Bass at 25%, Raman at 17%, and Pratt at 14%. UCLA Luskin’s early-April poll had Bass at 25%, Pratt at 11%, Raman at 9%, with 40% undecided. Emerson’s newest poll, fielded May 9-10, had Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22%, Raman at 19%, with undecideds down to 16%. Across the mainstream public polls, Bass is consistently first, while Pratt and Raman are very close for second, with Pratt slightly ahead in the latest public read. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

I do not treat every poll equally. Cygnal’s May 15-18 survey also had Bass first and Pratt narrowly ahead of Raman, 25%-22%-18%, but I discount it somewhat because the released deck is explicitly organized around Pratt message testing and an “informed ballot” exercise, not just a neutral public snapshot. I also heavily discount the LMU poll that showed Raman ahead of Bass, because it omitted an undecided option, used candidate descriptions, and was fielded over more than a month; even the poll director said Bass was still the front-runner when the other polls were taken into account. Still, those two polls matter at the margins because they show real volatility and they remind us that late movement is possible. (cygn.al)

Structurally, the race points in different directions for Pratt and Raman. Pratt has several reasons to be a slight favorite for second: he is ahead of Raman in the newest Emerson poll; Cygnal also showed him ahead; and his campaign reported raising $2.72 million from April 19 through May 16, giving him a well-funded final push. Emerson and Cygnal also suggest he runs better with men, independents, and Republicans. Raman’s path is also very real: Emerson found her strongest among voters under 40, and the city’s progressive politics give her upside if younger and left-leaning voters break late toward the more ideologically aligned anti-Bass option. But turnout composition matters. Recent Los Angeles Times reporting on the Emerson poll noted that actual turnout is likely to skew older than raw samples suggest, while Bass is especially strong with older voters and with Latino voters; Berkeley/Times found Bass leading Latinos 29%-16%-9% over Pratt and Raman. That turnout mix is somewhat better for Pratt than for Raman, because Raman’s coalition is more youth-dependent. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

I also keep two important brakes on a Pratt forecast. First, Pratt is still a Republican in a city that last elected a Republican mayor in 1997, so his internet buzz does not automatically translate into votes. Second, Donald Trump’s public support for Pratt may energize some anti-establishment voters, but it also reinforces Pratt’s ceiling in heavily Democratic Los Angeles. Those factors are why I do not push Pratt higher despite his fundraising and recent polling edge. (apnews.com)

For “Any other candidate,” I keep a nontrivial tail because Adam Miller still has resources — including $4 million in self-loans and nearly $1.3 million cash on hand — and Rae Huang has shown some niche appeal in earlier polling and subgroup reporting. But neither is close enough in the recent broad polls for me to make that outcome anything more than a small upset path, especially now that voting is underway. (latimes.com)

Putting it together: Bass is still the most likely first-place finisher, so the main question is Pratt versus Raman for second. I make Pratt the favorite, but only a modest favorite, because the latest broadly credible public poll has him ahead, the likely turnout mix looks a bit more favorable to him than to Raman, and he has the strongest late money. Raman remains very live because younger/progressive consolidation could still swing the runoff slot. Bass finishing second mostly requires a challenger to overtake her for first, which is possible but not my base case. A non-Bass/non-Raman/non-Pratt second-place finish requires a late Miller/Huang breakout, which I view as less likely now than it was a month ago. Final numbers: Pratt 54.6%, Raman 30.1%, Bass 8.1%, Any other candidate 7.2%. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Base case: Bass is still most likely to finish first, not second. The official city election calendar sets the primary for June 2, 2026, and the certified mayoral field includes Bass, Pratt, Raman, Adam Miller, Rae Huang and other minor candidates. (clerk.lacity.gov)

My quantitative core is a recency-weighted polling average of the comparable public polls, with extra weight on the two May polls. UCLA in late March had Bass 25, Pratt 11, Raman 9, with 40 undecided; the Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll in mid-March had Bass 25, Raman 17, Pratt 14, with 26 undecided; Emerson on May 9-10 had Bass 30.2, Pratt 22.3, Raman 19.4, Miller 7.3, Huang 4.3, and 16.3 undecided; and Cygnal on May 15-18 had Bass 25, Pratt 22, Raman 18, and 25 undecided. (newsroom.ucla.edu)

That polling says the race for second currently leans Pratt: both latest comparable polls put him ahead of Raman, while Bass remains ahead of both. I then simulated election-day outcomes with explicit undecided reallocation and modest late-campaign error. In the poll-only model Pratt is the favorite for second, but not by an overwhelming margin, because there is still a meaningful undecided bloc and the older March polls showed Raman ahead of Pratt. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

I trimmed Pratt’s raw poll edge because his coalition has a clear ceiling in Los Angeles. Pratt is a registered Republican in a heavily Democratic city; a recent Los Angeles Times report noted Republicans are under 15% of the registered voting base, and Cygnal found that tying Pratt to Trump made 50% of voters less likely to support him versus 24% more likely. (latimes.com)

I did not ignore Raman’s upside. Emerson found a sharp age split, with voters under 40 breaking to Raman 31%-20%-13% over Bass and Pratt, and the LMU/StudyLA poll that briefly showed Raman leading Bass was methodologically unusual because it used positive candidate descriptions and no undecided option, so I treat it as evidence of upside rather than as a straight horse-race read. Raman’s case is helped by anti-Pratt tactical voting, but hurt by left fragmentation: DSA declined a formal mayoral endorsement because both Raman and Rae Huang were in the field, and three progressive councilmembers backed Bass instead. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Bass gets a non-trivial second-place probability because she is still only in the high-20s/low-30s in public polls, so a challenger topping her is plausible in a volatile race. But endorsements from Kamala Harris, IATSE, and progressive councilmembers make me think Bass is more likely to hold first than to slip to second. (latimes.com)

Any other candidate is low but not zero. Miller and Huang have mostly been polling in single digits, so one of them getting to second would require a very lopsided late break from undecideds or a major top-three collapse. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Bottom line: Pratt is the narrow but real favorite for second because he leads Raman in the two latest standard horse-race polls and has had stronger late momentum, but Raman has enough tactical-voting and anti-Trump upside to stay very live. Bass is mostly a first-or-second outcome, not a favorite for second specifically. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Baseline: official city documents show 14 certified mayoral candidates in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles primary, and Los Angeles County mailed ballots on April 30, 2026 and opened initial in-person vote centers on May 23, 2026. That means some votes are already locked in and the remaining persuasion window is short. (cityclerk.lacity.org)

The polling picture is clear on one point and fuzzy on one point: Karen Bass leads, while second place is the Spencer Pratt-Nithya Raman fight. UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times had Bass 25%, Raman 17%, Pratt 14% in mid-March; UCLA had Bass 25%, Pratt 11%, Raman 9% later in March; Emerson’s May 9-10 Los Angeles sample had Bass 30.2%, Pratt 22.3%, Raman 19.4%; and Cygnal’s May 15-18 poll had Bass 25%, Pratt 22%, Raman 18%. Using the May Emerson LA subsample and the May Cygnal topline as the most informative current read, I get a simple weighted average of about Bass 27.1%, Pratt 22.1%, and Raman 18.6% before allocating remaining undecideds. (latimes.com)

Why Pratt is my favorite for second: the freshest public polls both put him ahead of Raman, and his coalition is somewhat better aligned with who usually shows up in a low-salience municipal primary. Emerson found men at 30% Pratt / 25% Raman / 24% Bass, and voters over 60 at 25% Pratt / 6% Raman / 47% Bass. Cygnal likewise found Pratt at 30% among independents, 71% among Republicans, and 30% among voters 65+, while Raman was much stronger among under-65 and college-educated voters. I do not take Cygnal’s message-test “informed ballot” literally, but I do treat it as evidence that Pratt may have a bit more late upside than Raman among persuadables. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Why Raman still has a substantial chance: her path is real if younger, progressive, and college-heavy turnout is better than expected or if Pratt’s ceiling bites. Emerson found voters under 40 breaking 31% for Raman versus 13% for Pratt, and Cygnal had Raman tied with Bass at 24% among college graduates. Pratt also got a public boost from President Trump on May 20, 2026; in Los Angeles that could repel as many swing Democrats as it attracts, especially because the city has not elected a Republican mayor since 1997. Raman’s problem is consolidation: DSA-LA declined to make a formal mayoral endorsement, several progressive council allies endorsed Bass instead, and local reporting says Rae Huang’s candidacy may siphon progressive votes that would otherwise help Raman. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Bass is only a secondary second-place candidate in my model. She still looks likeliest to finish first because she leads every major public poll, dominates older and female voters in the newest crosstabs, and has help from endorsements such as Kamala Harris plus several progressive councilmembers. But she is still well below 50%, and her unfavorable ratings have been weak enough that a very late anti-incumbent consolidation behind one challenger could push her down to second instead of first. (latimes.com)

“Any other candidate” is low but not negligible. Adam Miller and Rae Huang are not polling at zero: Berkeley had them at 6% and 8%, Emerson May had Miller at 7.3% and Huang at 4.3%, and Cygnal had both at 5%. Miller has also spent heavily, while Huang appears to have a real niche on the left. Still, one of them would need a very large late break plus continued fragmentation between Pratt and Raman to actually land in second, so I keep this bucket in low single digits. My final forecast therefore makes Pratt a clear, but not overwhelming, favorite for second place. (latimes.com)

Question: who will place second in the June 2 Los Angeles mayoral primary? With about a week left, forecasters agree this is a late polling/turnout question driven by likely-voter polls, late spending, and vote-return composition. Most conventional polls (Emerson, Cygnal, earlier IGS/UCLA snapshots) show Karen Bass leading while Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trade a close, non‑decisive second; Emerson found Bass 30%, Pratt 22%, Raman 19% but the LA subsample is small so the Pratt edge is within noise. Pratt has the clearest hard-data momentum—strong late fundraising and cash‑on‑hand per LA Times filings—while Raman retains a plausible youth/progressive path but appears less consolidated (notably several progressive endorsements went to Bass), and Bass’s broad institutional stack plus name ID make her first-place scenario the modal branch. Forecasters flag key uncertainties: low turnout composition (older voters favor Bass, under‑40s favor Raman), whether undecideds break toward public‑safety/anti‑incumbent Pratt or progressive cues, and the mechanical possibility—though low probability given polling/debate thresholds—that an “other” like Adam Miller slips into second. Overall consensus: Pratt and Raman are the main second‑place contenders with Pratt having the momentum edge, Bass most likely to remain first but able to be overtaken in a turnout‑sensitive upset.

Forecast and Reasoning

Forecast:

• Karen Bass: 9.4%
• Nithya Raman: 39.9%
• Spencer Pratt: 47.8%
• Any other candidate: 2.9%

Forecast Reasoning

With 8 days remaining (2026-05-25), the key determinant is whether Karen Bass holds 1st (most likely) and then whether Spencer Pratt or Nithya Raman takes the other runoff slot. The most-cited late-May public polls place Bass clearly ahead, with Pratt and Raman clustered in the low 20s/high teens:

• Emerson (May 9–10): Bass ~30, Pratt ~22, Raman ~19–20 (and an “allocated/leaned” version that makes Pratt/Raman essentially tied).
• Cygnal (May 15–18): Bass 25, Pratt 22, Raman 18 (Pratt ahead for 2nd on the named ballot), plus an “informed ballot” showing Pratt performing even better (useful as an upper-bound scenario but not a direct snapshot of current vote intention).

Given this, Bass is strongly favored to finish 1st; her finishing 2nd mainly happens if Pratt (more plausibly than Raman) actually wins the primary. That pathway is real but still a minority outcome because Bass’s lead is larger than the Pratt–Raman gap.

For 2nd place conditional on Bass finishing 1st, Pratt is a modest favorite over Raman because he is slightly ahead on the most recent named-candidate ballot(s), but the gap is within typical sampling/turnout error and Emerson’s “pushed” result is effectively a tie. I keep a small tail for “Any other candidate” because a low-information, volatile race with meaningful undecideds can produce surprises, but polling suggests others would need an unusually large late swing to reach 2nd.

Combining (a) Bass being very likely top-two and more likely 1st than 2nd, (b) a close Pratt–Raman contest for the remaining top-two spot, and (c) a small upset tail for the field, I land on Pratt as a slight favorite for 2nd with substantial uncertainty between him and Raman.

An amateur forecast often (1) treats “who is ahead in the latest poll” as near-deterministic, (2) ignores that a candidate’s overall-election win odds don’t map cleanly to primary top-two odds, and/or (3) assigns ~0% to Bass finishing 2nd despite plausible (though minority) scenarios where Pratt wins the primary. My forecast instead explicitly separates scenarios (Bass 1st vs Pratt/Raman 1st), weights multiple recent polls without overreacting to the “informed ballot,” and preserves calibrated tail risk for both Bass-as-2nd and a non-top-3 surprise.

Overview of the Race Forecasters generally agree that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is heavily favored to finish first. Despite some vulnerabilities and low approval ratings, her strong institutional backing makes her the default choice for establishment Democrats. Consequently, the true battle for second place is a highly competitive contest between former reality TV star Spencer Pratt and progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman.

Spencer Pratt’s Structural and Financial Edge Pratt is viewed as having a strong path to second place due to several structural and campaign dynamics:

• Turnout Demographics: California primary elections historically feature lower turnout that skews heavily toward older, homeowner, and more conservative demographics. Pratt has successfully consolidated this bloc, which reliably votes early.
• Financial Dominance: Pratt enjoys a massive late-stage fundraising advantage, allowing him to blanket airwaves and digital markets with his messaging.
• Tactical Outside Spending: Multiple forecasters note that pro-Bass PACs and labor groups are running tactical “attack ads” against Pratt that intentionally highlight his conservative platform. This is widely seen as a calculated effort to elevate him into the runoff, operating under the assumption that a right-wing populist will be much easier for Bass to defeat in a deep-blue city.

Nithya Raman and the “Blue Shift” Raman’s path to the runner-up spot relies almost entirely on the mechanics of California’s mail-in voting system:

• The Progressive Surge: California elections are known for a post-election “blue shift,” where late-arriving mail ballots disproportionately favor younger, progressive candidates. Raman’s core base heavily aligns with this demographic, giving her a distinct advantage in the final vote tally.
• A Fractured Coalition: Despite her structural advantage with late voters, forecasters note that Raman faces significant headwinds. Her progressive base is partially fractured—she failed to secure a formal endorsement from the local DSA, and several progressive allies have endorsed Bass. Additionally, she lacks the financial war chest necessary to match Pratt’s media blitz.

Incumbent Vulnerability and Minor Candidates While Bass is expected to win the primary, forecasters acknowledge a small tail risk that she could slip to second place. If the anti-establishment vote surges enough to push either Pratt or Raman into first place, Bass would become the runner-up. Meanwhile, minor candidates are universally viewed as non-factors, lacking the momentum or funding to bridge the gap.

Conclusion The race for second place ultimately hinges on whether Pratt’s consolidated conservative base, financial superiority, and high-propensity early voter turnout can build a lead large enough to withstand Raman’s anticipated surge from late-arriving progressive mail-in ballots.

SUMMARY

Question: Who will finish second in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary? Final Prediction:

• Karen Bass: 11.67%
• Nithya Raman: 28.67%
• Spencer Pratt: 56.67%
• Any other candidate: 3.0%

Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled

Report 1 Summary

Forecasts

Forecaster 1:

• Karen Bass: 11.0%
• Nithya Raman: 25.0%
• Spencer Pratt: 61.0%
• Any other candidate: 3.0%

Forecaster 2:

• Karen Bass: 15.0%
• Nithya Raman: 24.0%
• Spencer Pratt: 58.0%
• Any other candidate: 3.0%

Forecaster 3:

• Karen Bass: 9.0%
• Nithya Raman: 37.0%
• Spencer Pratt: 51.0%
• Any other candidate: 3.0%

Research Summary

The assembled research reports that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary but is well below 50%, while the race for second place is highly competitive and volatile between Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman. Recent polls (Emerson May 9–10; Tavern Research May 1–4; UCLA/LA Times and UCLA Luskin earlier in spring) show Bass roughly mid-20s to 30%, with Pratt and Raman typically clustered in the mid-to-high teens to low 20s and the Pratt surge from ~10% in March to ~22% in May. Undecided voters have declined substantially in some polls (reported drops from ~51% in March to ~16% in May), but remaining undecided shares and poll margins of error keep the second-place outcome uncertain.

Prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi) and fundraising/turning-point data in the research consistently give Pratt an edge over Raman for advancing: markets priced Pratt roughly 2–3 times Raman’s odds, Pratt reportedly posted a large late fundraising surge (multi-million dollars) and benefited from viral social-media momentum and a strong debate showing, while Raman holds progressive credentials, an under-40 base, and some institutional support. The research also cites campaign dynamics (Palisades Fire aftermath, endorsements, debate participation decisions), demographic splits, historical LA primary patterns showing tight second-place margins, and key uncertainties (remaining undecided voters, whether online momentum converts to local turnout, and possible polling-sample issues).

Sources used (as named in the research; no URLs were provided in the research): Emerson College poll; Tavern Research; UCLA Luskin / UCLA/LA Times polls; Polymarket; Kalshi; news reporting and analysis cited in the research including LA Times, California Post, and assorted campaign finance/endorsement reports.

RESEARCH

Report 1 Research

I’ll help you research the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary to assist with forecasting who will finish second. Let me conduct a thorough investigation of recent news, polling, prediction markets, and historical base rates.

Let me search for the most recent information and any additional prediction market details to strengthen my analysis.

Agent Forecast (multiple_choice, confidence: low)

• Spencer Pratt: 48.0%
• Nithya Raman: 46.0%
• Any other candidate: 4.0%
• Karen Bass: 2.0%

Base Rate: The 2022 LA mayoral primary (Caruso/Bass) provides the closest analog: a Republican-adjacent candidate with massive resources ($60M+) reached the runoff in deep-blue LA. Pratt has far less money (~$2.72M) but more name recognition and a clearer ideological lane (only Republican in race). Republicans hold ~15% of LA registration — a structural floor that anchors Pratt’s base but caps his ceiling without crossover support.

Initial Reasoning:

• Trajectory 1 reasoning

  The race for second place is genuinely tight, with Pratt holding a slight but real edge.
• The most recent Emerson College poll (May 10-11, 2026) shows Pratt at 22% vs.
• Raman at 20% — within the ±5% MOE, but directionally clear.
• The narrative from Deadline (May 24, 2026) explicitly identifies Bass and Pratt as ‘the top two heading into a November runoff,’ and notes Raman ‘has slipped in polls since a so-so showing’ in the marquee debate, while Pratt’s performance was ‘widely praised.’ Several structural factors compound Pratt’s polling lead: (1) Primary turnout heavily favors older voters — Pratt commands 25% among 60+ voters vs.
• Raman’s just 6%, a decisive demographic edge in a primary electorate. (2) Conventional wisdom from Democratic consultants explicitly favors Republican consolidation behind Pratt. (3) Three DSA-affiliated council members (Hernandez, Jurado, Soto-Martínez) endorsed Bass on May 19 — after the Emerson poll was fielded — specifically to ‘dent’ Raman’s progressive base, potentially worsening her position since the poll. (4) Pratt significantly outperforms Raman with Latino voters (16% vs. 9%) in a group representing 37% of the electorate. (5) His fundraising surge (Winklevoss twins, Loeb, Grainge, Saban, Buss) provides organizational resources.
• Raman’s countervailing strengths — undecided leaners slightly favoring her (23.3% vs 22.9%), strong younger-voter support (31% under 40), and Hollywood creative-class donors — could close the gap, particularly given California’s extended mail-ballot canvass that could benefit younger progressive voters.
• But turnout patterns in LA primaries systematically disadvantage her demographic coalition.
• Karen Bass is solidly in first (30%), making second place essentially impossible for her.

Trajectory 2 reasoning

Reference class: Conservative-aligned candidate in a deep-blue LA mayoral primary polling 2pp ahead (22% vs 20%) one week out.

• Base rate: Republicans have not won an LA mayor rac

Key Uncertainties:

• No polling exists after Trump’s May 20 quasi-endorsement; impact on Pratt’s standing with persuadable Independents/Latinos is unknown
• Emerson leaners show Raman +0.4 (within fractions of MOE) — direction of undecided break is the single most important unknown
• Mail-ballot canvass dynamics in California’s ~30-day count: younger/progressive voters historically return later, potentially helping Raman in certified results vs election-night
• Whether Pratt’s $2.72M cash advantage converts to actual vote movement in a hyper-polarized environment where his support has likely already crystallized
• Latino backlash against Trump (25-29pt Dem swing in Prop 50) versus Pratt’s documented Latino lead — these forces work against each other and neither is freshly polled

Evidence Sources (20):

• LA Times: Emerson Poll May 13 2026
• LA Times: Progressive council members endorse Bass, snub Raman
• Deadline: LA Mayor Race Spencer Pratt Shakes Up Primary, May 24 2026
• NY Post: CEOs back Spencer Pratt for LA mayor, May 2026
• LA Times: Berkeley IGS poll March 22 2026
• LA Times: Latino vote article May 17 2026
• CalMatters: Labor’s influence in LA mayor’s race March 2026
• USA Today opinion: Pratt’s surge should terrify Democrats, May 24 2026
• UCLA Luskin Poll: Volatility Ahead in LA Mayor’s Race
• Trump is supporting Spencer Pratt in the LA mayor’s race. It may be a poison pill - The Guardian
• Trump signals support for Pratt in L.A. mayoral election - LA Times
• Campaign finance figures for 2026 LA Mayor race - social media post referencing filings
• CalMatters: LA voters are moving ever leftward this election year
• CalMatters: Latino voters shifted towards Democrats on Prop. 50
• 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election - Wikipedia
• Cygnal LA Mayor Poll PDF – May 15-18 2026
• Newsweek – Polymarket odds post-debate May 2026
• Kalshi – LA Mayor race prediction market
• LA Times voter guide May 1 2026
• LA Times – LMU controversial poll March 30 2026

Grounding Facts (passed to reviewers): Here are 9 key grounding facts:

1. The Los Angeles mayoral primary election is scheduled for June 2, 2026.
2. Karen Bass is the incumbent Mayor of Los Angeles.
3. An Emerson College poll conducted May 10-11, 2026, showed Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22%, and Raman at 20% among likely voters (n=350, MOE ±5%).
4. With undecided leaners, the May 10-11, 2026 Emerson poll showed Bass at 35%, Raman at 23.3%, and Pratt at 22.9%.
5. A Deadline article from May 24, 2026, states that polls point to incumbent Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt emerging as the top two candidates for a November runoff.
6. Three progressive LA City Council members (Eunisses Hernandez, Ysabel Jurado, Hugo Soto-Martínez), all DSA members, endorsed Karen Bass for reelection on May 19

Draft: Spencer Pratt: 53.0%, Nithya Raman: 42.0%, Any other candidate: 2.7%, Karen Bass: 2.3%

Reviewer Panel:

Reviewer (reasoning)

The forecast overweights a slim Emerson poll lead (±5% MOE) and cherry-picks endorsements and debate narratives without fully accounting for LA’s deep Democratic tilt, the city’s mail‐ballot turnout advantages for younger/progressive voters, or the likely negative drag of a Trump-aligned candidate. It treats a 2-point polling edge as directional certainty despite structural headwinds for Spencer Pratt.

Objections:

• The 2-point Emerson margin is within its ±5% MOE, so treating Pratt as the clear frontrunner misreads the data as directionally decisive.
• It underestimates how LA’s predominantly Democratic and mail-ballot electorate advantaging younger/progressive voters could lift Raman past a narrow GOP-aligned base.
• It assumes Trump’s quasi-endorsement of Pratt is a net positive, ignoring that in deeply blue LA such an association may suppress his turnout.
• It doesn’t sufficiently consider the potential for polling late-break shifts or differential turnout models favoring progressive candidates in primaries.

Reviewer (calibration)

The forecast overemphasizes Spencer Pratt’s nominal lead in the raw Emerson poll (22% vs 20%) while downplaying the crucial detail that, with undecided leaners, Nithya Raman actually edges out Pratt (23.3% vs 22.9%). This statistical tie, combined with the significant margin of error (±5%), makes the forecast’s lean towards Pratt less robust than presented. The potential negative impact of the ‘Trump quasi-endorsement’ in deep-blue Los Angeles also appears to be insufficiently factored into the final probability.

Objections:

• The forecast misinterprets or downplays the Emerson poll data, as the grounding facts explicitly state Raman leads Pratt (23.3% vs 22.9%) when undecided voters are pressed, directly contradicting the narrative of Pratt holding a ‘slight but real edge’.
• There is an over-reliance on journalistic narratives (e.g., Deadline article, ‘praised debate performance’) and a perceived ‘narrative shift’ to justify Pratt’s lead, despite the underlying polling data being within the margin of error and showing a statistical tie or slight Raman lead with leaners.
• The significant ‘Trump poison pill’ risk for Pratt in a deeply Democratic city like Los Angeles is acknowledged but not adequately quantified or reflected in the final probability, which still heavily favors Pratt despite this potential electoral liability.

Reviewer (fact-checker)

Verdict: clean

Adjustment Rationale:

Shifted from ~53% to 48% for Pratt in response to two valid reviewer objections: (1) The calibration reviewer correctly noted that the Emerson poll’s leaners actually show Raman fractionally ahead (23.3% vs 22.9%), not Pratt — the draft over-weighted the raw 22% vs 20% number. (2) The reasoning reviewer correctly emphasized that Trump’s May 20 quasi-endorsement is a ‘poison pill’ in deep-blue LA (Trump nets -50 there), landing AFTER the only neutral public poll — meaning the polling data does not capture the most consequential recent event. The follow-up search confirmed no post-May 24 polling exists. I preserve a slight Pratt edge (rather than going to a pure 50/50) because: (a) raw Emerson polling shows Pratt +2; (b) Cygnal internal shows Pratt +4 (campaign poll, weight accordingly); (c) Pratt has ~6.8x Raman’s cash ($2.72M vs $401K) for final-week spending; (d) Republican consolidation behind Pratt is the explicit narrative per the Emerson pollster; (e) primary turnout skews older — Bass takes 47% of 60+ voters but Pratt takes 25% vs Raman’s 6% in that bloc; (f) Pratt leads Raman among Latinos (25% vs unspecified-but-lower per Emerson; 16% vs 9% per Berkeley IGS); (g) Deadline’s May 24 framing still identifies ‘Bass and Pratt’ as the runoff pair. Raman’s offsetting strengths — under-40 vote (31%), DSA ground game, mail-ballot late counting potentially favoring younger voters, better favorability, undecided lean — keep this near a coin flip. Bass finishing 2nd remains essentially impossible (30% vs next-best 22%, with no mechanism for her to drop). Confidence downgraded from medium to low given (i) raw polling within MOE, (ii) no post-Trump-endorsement polling, (iii) genuine structural cross-pressures.

forecast_sdk | 498.3s | research $2.4147 + reviewers $0.0100 + reconcile $0.4640 = $2.9262

All Predictions: [{‘Karen Bass’: 0.01, ‘Nithya Raman’: 0.46, ‘Spencer Pratt’: 0.49, ‘Any other candidate’: 0.04}, {‘Karen Bass’: 0.02, ‘Nithya Raman’: 0.47, ‘Spencer Pratt’: 0.49, ‘Any other candidate’: 0.02}, {‘Karen Bass’: 0.02, ‘Nithya Raman’: 0.4, ‘Spencer Pratt’: 0.54, ‘Any other candidate’: 0.04}] Median Reasoning: EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [2, 47, 49, 2]

Model’s Answer:

Analysis of Los Angeles Mayoral Primary - Second Place Finish

Key Information Summary

The June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary is just 8 days away. Based on recent polling and research:

Polling Data:

• Cygnal (May 15-18): Bass 25%, Pratt 22%, Raman 18%, undecided 25% (MoE ±4.38%)
• Emerson (May 9-10): Bass 35%, Pratt 22.9%, Raman 23.3%, undecided ~16%
• All other candidates polling at 5% or below

Structural Factors:

• Bass is the clear frontrunner but well below 50%, making a runoff almost certain
• Mail voting began May 23, meaning many votes are already cast
• 14 candidates total, but only Bass, Pratt, and Raman have meaningful support
• High undecideds (16-25%) create volatility potential

Critical Assumptions and Analysis

1. Bass finishes first (~98% confidence): She leads by 3-15 points in all polls and has incumbent advantages. The scenario where Bass finishes second (someone surpasses her) is extremely unlikely.

2. The race for second is between Raman and Pratt (~96% confidence): All other candidates poll at 5% or below. For another candidate to finish second, both Raman AND Pratt would need to collapse dramatically.

3. Pratt vs. Raman assessment:

   • Most recent Cygnal poll shows Pratt +4 points ahead
   • Earlier Emerson poll shows them essentially tied
   • Pratt has high name recognition and media momentum
   • Raman has traditional political organization and GOTV infrastructure
   • The 25% undecided in Cygnal creates significant uncertainty
   • Turnout composition matters: higher-propensity municipal voters may favor Raman, but Pratt’s visibility could capture low-information voters

Given the conflicting signals, I give Pratt a slight edge based on the more recent poll showing him ahead, but acknowledge this is within the margin of error. Traditional political organization often helps close races, but Pratt’s celebrity profile may counteract this. The already-in-progress mail voting may lock in some of the Pratt advantage shown in the most recent poll.

Final Assessment

The contest for second place is genuinely close. Bass finishing second or another candidate surprising is highly improbable given current polling. The race between Pratt and Raman is essentially a toss-up with Pratt holding a narrow lead in the most recent poll.

Option_A: 2 Option_B: 47 Option_C: 49 Option_D: 2

Los Angeles’s nonpartisan top-two primary and a low-salience June calendar structurally favor name recognition and turnout skews.

An incumbent plurality below fifty percent makes the second slot a narrow, turnout-dependent contest rather than a settled outcome.

Pratt’s recent fundraising and an older, conservative-leaning voting bloc give him an operational advantage in low-turnout conditions.

Raman’s core appeal lies with younger and progressive voters whose mobilization is powerful but uneven and geographically diffuse.

A late, concentrated stop-Pratt consolidation of progressive and moderate voters can pivot Raman into second place.

A late Pratt media and mobilization push or an electorate tilted older will more likely cement Pratt’s hold on second.

The principal uncertainties are mailed-ballot return composition and how a large pool of undecided voters resolves in the final days.

Small shifts in undecideds, last-minute endorsements, or local turnout differentials have outsized effects on who finishes second.

Spencer Pratt to Finish Second in LA Mayoral Primary

Forecast: Spencer Pratt 69.6%

• Polling and market consensus align on Pratt. Recent Cygnal polling shows Pratt leading Raman by 4 points (22% vs 18%), and prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) both price Pratt at ~68% for second place. While Emerson’s leaner-adjusted numbers show a tighter race, the directional signal favors Pratt across most indicators.

• Turnout composition likely benefits Pratt. Analysis suggests actual voter turnout will skew older and less Latino than some polls assume—a shift that advantages Pratt, who leads decisively among voters 60+ (25%) and Republicans (~61%). Republican voters also return mail ballots at higher rates, further favoring his coalition.

• Pratt’s financial advantage and media presence are substantial. He raised ~$2.7M in the most recent period (10x Bass, 7x Raman) and holds $1.42M cash on hand, plus endorsements from Joe Rogan and quasi-support from Trump. However, some uncertainty remains about whether this translates into effective local media deployment.

• Raman faces structural headwinds. Nine of 15 city council colleagues endorsed Bass instead, and DSA-aligned progressives—Raman’s natural base—also backed Bass. Her ground game advantage (83K doors in CD4) may not scale citywide, and she entered the race late relative to Pratt’s momentum.

• Bass will almost certainly finish first, so the operative contest is Pratt vs. Raman for second. The 2022 Caruso precedent (a well-funded outsider surging late to finish second) provides the closest reference point and suggests polling can be directionally reliable when turnout composition is correctly assessed.

• Key uncertainty: no final-week polling exists. The most recent data is

Forecast (per option, aggregated):

• Karen Bass: 12%
• Nithya Raman: 19%
• Spencer Pratt: 67%
• Any other candidate: 2%

Per-model forecasts:

• 1: {“Karen Bass”: 5, “Nithya Raman”: 25, “Spencer Pratt”: 65, “Any other candidate”: 5}
• 2: {“Karen Bass”: 11, “Nithya Raman”: 21, “Spencer Pratt”: 66, “Any other candidate”: 2}
• 3: {“Karen Bass”: 15, “Nithya Raman”: 35, “Spencer Pratt”: 48, “Any other candidate”: 2}

Rationale: Summary The assessment for who will finish second in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary is driven heavily by recent polling trends and market data, which clearly identify three main contenders: incumbent Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt, and Nithya Raman. Spencer Pratt receives the highest probability (67%) because he has consistently held the second-place spot in recent surveys, showing significant late-stage momentum. Nithya Raman follows at 19%, reflecting her consistent third-place polling position combined with the structural advantages of an established politician that could help her overperform on election day. Karen Bass is assigned a 12% probability; as the clear frontrunner polling consistently in first place, her most likely outcome is winning the primary outright, making a second-place finish dependent on an unexpected surge by a challenger. The remainder of the field, including Adam Miller and Rev. Rae Huang, polls in the low single digits and is collectively assigned a 2% chance, representing a remote scenario where a fringe candidate experiences an unprecedented last-minute surge.

Most Likely Outcome Spencer Pratt is the clear favorite to finish second. Recent polling from mid-May (such as Emerson College and Cygnal) consistently places him in the runner-up position, capturing between 22% and 25% of the vote. He has demonstrated substantial upward momentum, surging 12 points in recent polls, fueled by high media visibility and notable celebrity endorsements. Financial prediction markets mirror this data, consistently pricing his likelihood of a second-place finish at roughly 70%, reflecting broad consensus that his polling advantage over the third-place contender is solid.

Alternative Outcomes Nithya Raman remains a highly competitive alternative for second place. Although she currently trails Pratt by 3 to 7 points in recent polls, she possesses significant institutional advantages as a sitting city councilmember, including a robust progressive campaign infrastructure and ground game. These traditional turnout mechanisms could allow her to capture a disproportionate share of late-breaking voters. Karen Bass finishing second is also plausible but would require a significant upset. She currently leads the field with 25% to 35% support. For her to fall to second place, either Pratt or Raman would need to surge past her to take the top spot, an outcome that would represent a notable polling miss but remains possible given the tight margins.

Key Uncertainties • Undecided Voters: A significant portion of the electorate remains undecided. How these late-breaking voters allocate their support could quickly erase the single-digit gap between Pratt and Raman. • Voter Turnout Dynamics: It is unclear whether Pratt’s celebrity-driven momentum will translate into actual votes at the ballot box as effectively as Raman’s established political ground game. • Progressive Vote Splitting: Raman’s vote share could be negatively impacted if left-leaning voters divide their support between her and other progressive candidates on the ballot.