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Question: will the FRBSF Daily News Sentiment Index (DNSI) publish a newly first-published 2026 year-to-date high before the 2026-08-12 12:00 UTC cutoff? Resolution depends on FRBSF’s weekly publication cadence (likely Monday updates around Jul 6, Jul 13, Jul 20, Jul 27, Aug 3, and Aug 10) and on whether any newly published daily value in those batches exceeds the unknown 2026 YTD high as of the 6/29/2026 update. Forecasters agree the key missing input is that current YTD high—if late June already set a strong peak the hurdle is high, whereas a modest early-year peak would make a summer record easier. A neutral iid running-record benchmark gives ~20–21% chance for a midyear new high; teams adjusted that modestly upward to ~28–30% given DNSI’s trailing-average smoothing and recent mixed-but-somewhat-improving macro/news (GDP, jobs, markets, energy) offset by inflation, Fed-hike risk, weak consumer sentiment, and geopolitical fragility. Practical monitoring: archive the FRBSF Excel immediately after each weekly update, compare only newly first-published 2026 values to prior 2026 maxima, and ignore later revisions; probability mass is concentrated on the six weekly update dates, with no-qualifying-publication (~70–72%) the majority outcome.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
Key drivers are (1) the FRBSF posting cadence and (2) how hard it is for the index to exceed the existing 2026 year-to-date maximum. Multiple analysts independently found the series is updated weekly on the FRBSF website, with recent updates dated 2026-06-22 and 2026-06-29 (both Mondays), implying most qualifying publication dates in-window are likely 2026-07-06, 07-13, 07-20, 07-27, 08-03, and 08-10 (with only small chance of an off-cycle/delayed midweek update).
On the magnitude side, analysts disagree somewhat on late-June levels (slightly positive vs slightly negative), but they broadly agree the 2026 maximum so far occurred early in the year around ~0.08–0.10. Without being able to verify the underlying XLS values directly, the best anchor is a base-rate/record-statistic view: with ~6 weeks (~40ish daily observations) left before the deadline versus ~half a year already elapsed, a stationary baseline would put the chance of a new annual maximum occurring in the remaining window on the order of ~15–20%. Macro/trend arguments (index being weaker than early-year peak) plausibly push that somewhat downward, while volatility/spike risk pushes upward. Synthesizing these, I center the in-window probability around ~18%, meaning the median outcome is “no qualifying publication by the deadline” and therefore lies in the open-after tail.
I map essentially all in-window mass to the weekly update dates and place the remaining mass strictly past the upper bound (using the allowed past-bound dates) to correctly represent the “>2026-08-12T12:00Z” outcome.
An amateur forecast often (a) treats resolution as equally likely on any day (ignoring the weekly batch publication process), and/or (b) anchors on the Aug 12 deadline and piles probability at the bound instead of expressing the open-after tail. This forecast explicitly conditions on the weekly FRBSF update cadence, uses a record-probability/base-rate anchor to size the chance of a new 2026 maximum in the remaining ~6 weeks, and represents non-resolution-in-window with strictly post-bound percentiles. I’m moderately confident this improves calibration versus a naïve in-window-heavy or bound-anchored forecast, though uncertainty remains due to limited verified access to the exact 2026 max and current level.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning is consistent:
> 2026-08-12 if no new maximum is reported by then, most of the probability mass is placed after the deadline.Areas of consensus
Areas of disagreement
Overall, the shared view is that a new 2026 DNSI maximum is possible within the next several weekly updates, but the short horizon and uncertain momentum make a pre-Aug. 12 report relatively unlikely.
— Iteration 2 — The forecasts converge on a similar picture: the FRBSF DNSI series is updated on a weekly, usually Monday, cadence, so the chance of a new 2026 high being reported before the August 12, 12:00 UTC cutoff is concentrated into only about six remaining update windows. The main uncertainty is not the timing of releases, but whether the index can actually exceed its current 2026 peak in such a short span.
A modestly positive backdrop is cited as supportive—equity markets are elevated, volatility has eased, and the latest DNSI reading is already positive—so a new record is plausible. Even so, the models treat this as only a moderate-probability outcome, generally around one-third and in some cases closer to one-fifth, with all of them placing the majority of probability after the cutoff.
The main point of agreement is that the event is more likely to occur after August 12 than on or before it. If no new maximum is reported by then, the expected resolution shifts to later in 2026, with a smaller tail extending into early 2027 in case the 2026 high was already set and never surpassed. The only real disagreement is how optimistic to be about a pre-deadline breakout; all forecasts remain below even odds.
— Iteration 3 — Overall, the reasoning converges on a low likelihood that FRBSF will report a new 2026 high for the Daily News Sentiment Index before the Aug. 12 cutoff.
The collective view is that a new 2026 maximum by Aug. 12 is possible but unlikely, with the most plausible path being a normal Monday update if improving news sentiment manages to lift the index above its earlier peak.
1. The Significant Gap to the Year-To-Date (YTD) Maximum Forecasters broadly agree that the Daily News Sentiment Index (DNSI) is currently recovering from a deep spring trough triggered by geopolitical and energy shocks. However, most rationales highlight that the true 2026 YTD maximum was likely established early in the first quarter, prior to these conflicts. Because early 2026 sentiment was relatively robust (often hovering near the index’s historical median), forecasters infer that the index must overcome a substantial numerical gap to set a completely new maximum.
2. Mathematical Constraints of the Index A central point of consensus is the structural methodology of the DNSI. The index is calculated as a trailing weighted average with a daily geometric depreciation rate. This smoothing mechanism prevents single-day positive headlines from causing sudden, vertical spikes in the index. Because older negative news exerts a lingering mathematical “drag,” bridging the gap to a new YTD high would require a prolonged and uninterrupted streak of overwhelmingly positive economic journalism.
3. Macroeconomic Headwinds While the short timeframe leading up to the mid-August deadline features several major economic catalysts—including CPI reports, Q2 GDP estimates, and an FOMC meeting—the prevailing macroeconomic environment remains a massive hurdle. Forecasters note that current media narratives are heavily focused on sticky inflation, delayed interest rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical fragility. While isolated sectors like AI generate optimism, the broader text-based sentiment needed to drive the lexical model upward remains defensively postured, making a “Goldilocks” scenario of perfectly positive news highly difficult to achieve in a few weeks.
4. Strict Timeline and Publication Schedule The FRBSF publishes updates to the DNSI in weekly batches, typically on Mondays. This reporting mechanism strictly limits the number of eligible publication windows before the mid-August deadline. Combined with the index’s mathematical drag and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, forecasters generally conclude that time is simply too short for the index to accumulate enough positive momentum to record and officially publish a new 2026 maximum.
Question: When will the FRBSF report that the Daily News Sentiment Index reached a new maximum for 2026, on or before August 12, 12:00 UTC? Final Prediction: Probability distribution:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1: Probability distribution:
Forecaster 2: Probability distribution:
The research reports that the FRBSF Daily News Sentiment Index (DNSI) was 0.042 on June 28, 2026 (up from 0.034 on June 27) — below the 1980–June 2026 historical median of 0.082 and well under the all-time maximum of 0.336 (February 28, 2017). It summarizes how the DNSI is constructed (NLP on economics-related articles from 24 major U.S. newspapers with geometrically declining article weights) and notes strong correlations with consumer confidence measures and the S&P 500. Recent context: the index has been mostly negative over the past three years, with high volatility during stress periods and a recent low in October 2025 (-0.161) and the all-time low in May 2020 (-0.665).
The research outlines current (June–July 2026) factors likely to press sentiment downward — a hawkish Fed stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, elevated inflation (PCE ~3.6–3.8%), recent market drops, geopolitical tensions, and tech-sector layoffs — while also noting some positive regional Fed indicators and limited optimism for future rate cuts. It identifies critical data gaps (notably the 2026 year-to-date maximum prior to July 1), absence of prediction‑market forecasts for this specific question, and key forecasting considerations: only DNSI publications after July 1, 2026 11:00 UTC through August 12, 2026 12:00 UTC qualify; the index’s positioning below its median allows room for upward moves but headwinds make gains less likely absent positive surprises. Missing items to improve the forecast include the 2026 YTD peak/date, intra‑year timing patterns of annual maxima, a July–August economic calendar, seasonal patterns, and the distribution of daily DNSI changes.
Sources used in the research (as cited):
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Daily News Sentiment Index (DNSI) was reported at 0.042 on June 28, 2026, up slightly from 0.034 on June 27, 2026 [4]. This reading is below the historical median of 0.082 (1980-June 2026) and well below the all-time maximum of 0.336 reached on February 28, 2017 [4].
The DNSI measures sentiment from economics-related articles across 24 major U.S. newspapers using natural language processing [5]. It assigns geometrically declining weights to articles based on publication age and correlates strongly with consumer confidence measures like the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index and the S&P 500 [5][17].
Factors likely to suppress sentiment:
Potential positive factors:
Critical data gap: The research did not reveal what the maximum DNSI value was for 2026 prior to July 1. Without knowing whether, for example, 2026’s peak was 0.15 or -0.05, it’s difficult to assess the probability of a new maximum being reached.
Historical patterns identified:
Typical drivers of DNSI peaks:
No prediction markets or Metaculus forecasts were found specifically for this DNSI question. This is notable as it means there is no market-based probability or liquidity data to reference for reliability assessment.
Question timing: Only publications occurring after July 1, 2026 11:00 UTC and on or before August 12, 2026 12:00 UTC qualify (approximately 6 weeks)
Current positioning: At 0.042 on June 28, the index is below its historical median, suggesting room for upward movement but also indicating subdued sentiment
Economic calendar: Major economic data releases, Fed communications, earnings reports, or geopolitical developments in July-early August 2026 could drive sentiment shifts
Baseline scenario: The prevailing hawkish Fed stance, elevated inflation, and expected market volatility create headwinds for sentiment improvement
Publication lag: The FRBSF typically updates the index daily, usually posted at the top of the official webpage [Question background]
To strengthen this forecast, you would ideally want:
The current environment presents mixed-to-negative conditions for news sentiment. While the index could certainly post a new 2026 maximum if significant positive surprises emerge, the hawkish Fed, elevated inflation, and expected volatility suggest sentiment is more likely to remain subdued or decline further during the July 1-August 12 window, consistent with the anticipated “downward spikes” referenced in June 2026 analysis [5].
Conditioning on not annulled.
I accept the critic’s latest correction: once we take seriously the reported spreadsheet parse that the pre-July 2026 YTD maximum is around the low 0.08s, the earlier “current value is close to the high” argument is much weaker. A June 28 value near 0.042 is not hopelessly far away, but it requires roughly a +0.04 move in a smoothed/trailing index over about six weeks. That is plausible, but not a coin-flip-plus case.
The critic is also right that this is mostly a threshold/data-ingestion forecast, not a macro narrative forecast. The official FRBSF page says the DNSI is constructed as a trailing weighted average with geometrically declining weights and is regularly updated weekly, so one or two good headline days may not be enough, and likely publication dates should cluster around weekly updates rather than arbitrary calendar days. (frbsf.org) The page is updated as of June 29, 2026, which makes the next plausible update dates around July 6, 13, 20, 27, August 3, and August 10. (frbsf.org)
I still defend keeping substantial but minority probability on resolution before the cutoff. DNSI has recently recovered substantially from March weakness; a low-0.08 threshold is meaningful but not extreme; and “less bad than feared” economic coverage could lift sentiment without a genuinely strong macro backdrop. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting is a real two-sided catalyst: a dovish/soft-landing interpretation could help August 3 or August 10, while a hawkish/inflation-anxiety interpretation could suppress the index. The Fed calendar confirms the July 28–29 meeting. (federalreserve.gov)
My main adjustment is to lower the qualifying-publication probability slightly from my prior 46–48% to about 43–45%, with about 55–57% on >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z. I also make the distribution less smooth: some early mass remains for July 6/13, but if the threshold is really around 0.08, a successful crossing is more likely in late July or early August than immediately.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-07-06
Percentile 1: 2026-07-06
Percentile 5: 2026-07-06
Percentile 10: 2026-07-13
Percentile 20: 2026-07-27
Percentile 30: 2026-08-03
Percentile 40: 2026-08-10
Percentile 50: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 60: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 70: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 80: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 90: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 95: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 99: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 99.9: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
I accept the critic’s core objection: the pre-July 2026 YTD maximum is the key variable, and not having it should constrain confidence. The official FRBSF page confirms that the DNSI is a trailing geometrically weighted average and is updated weekly, so this is not a situation with ~42 independent daily draws; record-setting should be “sticky,” and publication opportunities are likely only the weekly updates through about August 10. (frbsf.org)
I also agree that the March weakness is only weak evidence about the maximum. A weak year can still have had a January or February local high around 0.08–0.10, and if the late-June value is only 0.042, the index may need more than a minor wiggle to qualify.
That said, I do not want to move all the way down to a low-30s forecast. The late-June rebound matters because the event can resolve on a publication date even if the underlying qualifying daily value came from late June or very early July. Also, if the true YTD max is around 0.06–0.08 rather than 0.10+, a six-week continuation of the rebound is quite plausible. The macro backdrop is mixed-to-negative, but newspaper sentiment can rise on “less bad than feared” data, market resilience, benign inflation surprises, or resolution of geopolitical/energy worries.
My updated view, conditional on no annulment: about 34–35% chance of a qualifying publication by the cutoff. This is below my prior 38–39%, because the critic is right that the missing YTD max/gap deserves a stronger penalty. But I remain above 32% because the current level is not deeply negative anymore, the hidden-data/early-update channel is real, and the YTD threshold may still be moderate.
The median remains >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z. If it resolves, I expect it to be on a regular weekly update date, with most mass from July 13 through August 3 and a smaller final chance on August 10.
Updated prediction:
Percentile 0.1: 2026-07-06
Percentile 1: 2026-07-06
Percentile 5: 2026-07-13
Percentile 10: 2026-07-13
Percentile 20: 2026-07-27
Percentile 30: 2026-08-03
Percentile 40: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 50: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 60: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 70: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 80: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 90: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 95: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 99: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Percentile 99.9: >2026-08-12T12:00:00Z
Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 23, 2026 (26.7%) • frontier aggregate • 14m2s
Resolution sources/checks:
Edge cases:
Policy
Source cadence
Candidate dates
Status
Warnings
frontier_1 - Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 23, 2026 (56.7%)
frontier_2 - Modal: Jul 01, 2026 to Jul 08, 2026 (30.0%)
frontier_3 - Modal: After Jan 27, 2027 (16.0%)
frontier_4 (revised) - Modal: Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 23, 2026 (45.0%)
frontier_5 (revised) - Modal: Aug 05, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026 (18.0%)
Material notes
Guidance
Revision
| Bin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 01, 2026 to Jul 08, 2026 | 10.3% |
| Jul 08, 2026 to Jul 15, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Jul 15, 2026 to Jul 22, 2026 | 7.7% |
| Jul 22, 2026 to Jul 29, 2026 | 7.6% |
| Jul 29, 2026 to Aug 05, 2026 | 8.1% |
| Aug 05, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026 | 10.2% |
| Aug 12, 2026 to Sep 23, 2026 | 26.7% |
| Sep 23, 2026 to Nov 04, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Nov 04, 2026 to Dec 16, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Dec 16, 2026 to Jan 27, 2027 | 4.8% |
| After Jan 27, 2027 | 6.1% |
wooley_rhino • run 2caa219c • $3.27 • 14m2s
Extracted Date Percentile Values: {0.1: 1783382400.0, 1.0: 1783382400.0, 5.0: 1783382400.0, 10.0: 1783382400.0, 15.0: 1783382400.0, 20.0: 1783987200.0, 25.0: 1783987200.0, 30.0: 1784592000.0, 35.0: 1784592000.0, 40.0: 1785196800.0, 45.0: 1785196800.0, 46.0: 1785196800.0, 47.0: 1785196800.0, 48.0: 1785196800.0, 49.0: 1785801600.0, 50.0: 1785801600.0, 51.0: 1785801600.0, 52.0: 1785801600.0, 53.0: 1785801600.0, 54.0: 1786406400.0, 55.0: 1786406400.0, 60.0: 1786406400.0, 65.0: 1786492800.0, 70.0: 1786492800.0, 75.0: 1786492800.0, 80.0: 1786492800.0, 85.0: 1786492800.0, 90.0: 1786492800.0, 95.0: 1786492800.0, 99.0: 1786492800.0, 99.9: 1786492800.0}
Model’s Answer:
The question resolves when the FRBSF publishes a DNSI value for 2026 that exceeds ALL previously reported 2026 daily values. This requires a new calendar-year high, not just any positive reading. The resolution date is the publication date, not the underlying data date.
The FRBSF DNSI updates approximately weekly. The last update was June 29, 2026 (data through ~June 28, 2026). Upcoming publication dates are roughly:
Resolution can only occur on these discrete weekly dates. The August 12 cutoff is at 12:00 UTC, so August 11 is effectively the last possible qualifying update.
The VisionAnalysis and research align: 2026 began near deep negative territory (~-0.6 to -0.8 trough in late 2025/early 2026), recovered steadily, and reached ~0.04 by June 28, 2026. The 2026 YTD maximum appears to be in the ~0.0 to +0.1 range and is being set by the most recent readings. The index is in an upward recovery trend.
Arguments for earlier resolution (new 2026 max published July-August 2026): The upward trend has been sustained for ~6 months; weekly updates are likely still setting new 2026 highs; the index is near its 2026 high and recovering from deep lows, making it structurally easy to set new highs in continuation.
Arguments against (no new 2026 max before August 12): The macro backdrop is headwindy—inflation >4%, multiple Fed rate hikes expected, oil above $100, geopolitical conflict, political pressure on the Fed. These can cap sentiment recovery. The index is already near zero/slightly positive, and breaking into decisively higher territory requires unusually positive news clustering. The index can plateau or dip.
Assumption one: The upward recovery trend continues into July-August 2026. If this fails (probability ~40%), the index plateaus or reverses, making a new 2026 max unlikely. This is the most consequential assumption.
Assumption two: The 2026 YTD maximum as of July 1 is indeed the most recent reading (~0.04), meaning each new weekly update with a slightly higher value qualifies. If an earlier spike in 2026 (not visible in the chart) set a much higher bar (e.g., 0.3+), resolution becomes far less likely. I assign ~15% probability to this scenario.
Assumption three: The FRBSF continues weekly updates without extended gaps. Highly likely (>95%).
Given 6 qualifying update windows and the trend-continuation probability ~60-65%:
Combined resolution probability before cutoff: ~62%.
Percentile .1: 2026-07-07 Percentile 1: 2026-07-07 Percentile 5: 2026-07-07 Percentile 10: 2026-07-07 Percentile 15: 2026-07-07 Percentile 20: 2026-07-14 Percentile 25: 2026-07-14 Percentile 30: 2026-07-21 Percentile 35: 2026-07-21 Percentile 40: 2026-07-28 Percentile 45: 2026-07-28 Percentile 46: 2026-07-28 Percentile 47: 2026-07-28 Percentile 48: 2026-07-28 Percentile 49: 2026-08-04 Percentile 50: 2026-08-04 Percentile 51: 2026-08-04 Percentile 52: 2026-08-04 Percentile 53: 2026-08-04 Percentile 54: 2026-08-11 Percentile 55: 2026-08-11 Percentile 60: 2026-08-11 Percentile 65: 2026-08-12 Percentile 70: 2026-08-12 Percentile 75: 2026-08-12 Percentile 80: 2026-08-12 Percentile 85: 2026-08-12 Percentile 90: 2026-08-12 Percentile 95: 2026-08-12 Percentile 99: 2026-08-12 Percentile 99.9: 2026-08-12
The index is reported daily but distributed on a weekly cadence, so outcomes are locked to publication windows rather than individual observation dates.
A fixed calendar cutoff and only a few weekly releases before 2026‑08‑12 compress the event into a small set of Monday‑centered publication opportunities.
The late‑June level lies only a few hundredths of an index point below the January 5 year‑to‑date high, so the numeric climb required is modest.
Recent late‑June gains and generally positive market and labor signals increase the likelihood of incremental rises, while weak consumer sentiment and sticky inflation readings restrain large moves.
Because the target gap is small, short‑run daily volatility and news flow dominate the probability of a qualifying value before the final publication window.
Key inflection points include the late‑July FOMC period and concentrated weekly news cycles that tend to produce Monday updates where resolution is most likely.
Conditioning on historical analogs with similar late‑June gaps raises hit rates, but that reference class contains very few cases and is sensitive to single‑year outcomes.
The largest unresolved sensitivities are publication timing (delays or off‑cycle releases), the rule that only first‑published values count, and the small sample uncertainty in gap‑conditioned analogs.
Forecast: median = N/A (no P50)
When will the FRBSF report that the Daily News Sentiment Index reached a new maximum for 2026, on or before August 12, 12:00 UTC?
Key figures
Historical context
The Daily News Sentiment Index (DNSI) has a long history dating back to 1980, with a historical mean of 0.0091 and a median of 0.0188. The 2026 high of 0.0793, recorded on January 5, is relatively modest, sitting only at the 58th percentile of the full historical distribution. This indicates that the 2026 record is not an outlier and is likely to be surpassed during periods of high economic optimism. Historically, the index is sensitive to sharp negative shocks (negative skewness of -0.51), such as the 1980 energy crisis or the 2008 financial crisis, while positive recoveries tend to be more gradual. In 2026, the index reached a year-to-date low of -0.2181 on March 28, following a 76-day government shutdown and the start of hostilities with Iran. The current recovery mirrors historical patterns of sentiment rebounding following the resolution of major geopolitical or fiscal disruptions.
Tailwinds
Headwinds
Detailed reasoning
Key uncertainties
Conclusion