Scenario wins: SynapseSeer (52) Mantic (44) lewinke-thinking-bot* (29) cassi (28) pgodzinbot (28) Panshul42 (20)
The question asks for the average daily USD notional volume of all HIP-4 markets on Hyperliquid during June 2026. Forecasters agree HIP-4 is very new (mainnet launch ~May 2) and that first-day/first-two-day matched notional was about $6M–$6.5M, but public trackers as of May 10 showed only a handful (4–5) of short-dated BTC binary markets and substantially lower visible volumes in some dashboards. Upside hinges on Hyperliquid’s large existing trader base, native CLOB/account UX and any mid‑June permissionless/builder rollout, incentives, or market‑maker programs; downside comes from the absence of leverage and prediction markets’ historically episodic demand. Modelled and blended judgments center on a right‑skewed distribution with median ≈ $15M/day, common base-case in the low‑to‑mid tens of millions, substantial probability mass below $5M/day if breadth fails to expand, and small tails for breakout outcomes (weights in various scenarios: stagnation ~20–40%, base ~30–40%, growth ~20–25%, strong/mania small). Key near-term monitors are official daily notional figures, active market count/diversity, timing of permissionless rollout or incentives, and any settlement/oracle problems that could erode trust. Overall, forecasters hedge between plausible quick ramp (driven by distribution and incentives) and a realistic decay/flat outcome if HIP‑4 remains a curated BTC-only product through June.
Forecast: Probability distribution:
We are forecasting average daily matched-trade USD notional on HIP-4 markets over June 1–30, 2026 (total June HIP-4 volume / 30). Key anchors from the team: launch-day volume around $6M (Forecasters 1/3/4); early May activity likely in the high-single-digit millions/day with occasional higher days (Forecaster 2 cites peaks around the teens of millions/day); and a major potential catalyst in mid-June (permissionless/Phase-2 style market creation), but with meaningful uncertainty about timing and how quickly it translates into high-demand markets (Forecaster 3’s “date uncertainty” and stake-friction arguments).
Synthesis:
Overall, I weight Forecaster 2’s higher trajectory as plausible but somewhat aggressive given (i) dilution from averaging across the whole month and (ii) uncertainty around “mid-June” being both on-time and immediately high-volume; meanwhile, I keep a fatter right tail than Forecaster 1 because platform integration/capital efficiency can produce nonlinear adoption if builders ship compelling markets quickly.
An amateur forecast is likely to (a) anchor on day-one $6M and forecast something like $5M–$10M/day for June, missing adoption dynamics and the potential mid-June catalyst, or (b) take the “massive multiplier” narrative literally and jump straight to near-industry-leader volumes without accounting for timing (only part of June), execution risk, and the possibility that permissionless creation doesn’t instantly produce high-demand markets.
This forecast improves by explicitly blending regimes (Phase-1/curated vs post-permissionless), accounting for the fact that June is an average over 30 days (so late-month surges are diluted), and retaining calibrated tail risk on both sides (small chance of < $5M/day; small chance of > $170M/day). Confidence is moderate: the median is fairly robust across analysts, while tails remain highly sensitive to the rollout date and builder-market fit.
Forecast rationale (numeric):
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning pattern is to start from the first-day HIP-4 volume of about $6.2M and then project gradual-to-moderate growth through June rather than assuming a flat continuation. The key factors are:
The forecasts are broadly consistent in expecting a two-regime month: a lower early-June baseline followed by stronger late-June volume. They differ mainly in how strong the uplift will be—some expect a fairly modest increase, while others allow for a more pronounced post-catalyst jump. This yields a central tendency in the mid-teens to mid-20s millions per day.
The uncertainty treatment is notably conservative and right-skewed:
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning pattern is to anchor June volume on the observed launch-day activity of roughly $6.2M/day, then build a two-stage June profile:
The collective view is that HIP-4’s June average daily volume should start from a low-to-mid single-digit million baseline and then potentially climb sharply if permissionless listings and event-driven demand materialize. The forecast is therefore best understood as a cautiously bullish, highly uncertain, right-tailed estimate driven by rollout timing, adoption dynamics, and catalyst effects.
— Iteration 3 — Across the forecasts, the main reasoning pattern is to start from the observed launch-day HIP-4 activity of roughly $6M daily volume and then scale it up for June based on expected adoption growth and major catalysts.
The collective view is that HIP-4’s June volume should be modeled as a growth story with catalyst-driven upside, centered roughly in the high-$20M to low-$30M average daily range, while still allowing for substantial downside if adoption stalls and outsized upside if permissionless expansion and event-driven trading produce a strong liquidity flywheel.
The rationales agree that forecasting Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 average daily volume in June hinges on balancing the natural decay of its initial launch volume against massive structural and macroeconomic catalysts.
Initial Baseline and Structural Advantages Following its launch in early May, HIP-4 experienced strong initial volume driven largely by a single daily cryptocurrency prediction market. Forecasters broadly expect this initial novelty volume to organically decay entering June. However, Hyperliquid benefits from a massive structural advantage: frictionless cross-margining. This feature allows the platform’s large existing pool of perpetual futures traders to seamlessly deploy collateral into prediction markets without bridging. Furthermore, the protocol’s zero-fee opening structure and maker rebates create an ideal environment for high-frequency trading and automated market makers.
June Catalysts: The World Cup and Permissionless Markets The primary drivers for June are the anticipated mid-month rollout of permissionless market creation and the start of the FIFA World Cup. If timed correctly, the permissionless rollout will allow well-capitalized institutional builders to deploy highly liquid sports and niche crypto markets. Forecasters note that the World Cup acts as a generational catalyst for prediction markets. Additionally, speculation surrounding future token airdrops or protocol point programs heavily skews volume expectations upward due to the high likelihood of aggressive, bot-driven wash trading.
Downside Risks Conversely, bearish scenarios focus on technical delays and liquidity bottlenecks. If the permissionless rollout is postponed past the World Cup kickoff, or if steep token staking requirements prevent sufficient market creation, HIP-4 will miss its critical growth window. Under these conditions, volume would stagnate, relying solely on the original curated markets and failing to capture vital market share from incumbent prediction platforms.
Agent Forecast (numeric, confidence: medium)
Base Rate: HIP-4 week 1: $16.5M total May 2-6 (~$3.3M/day, Allium Labs); peak $3.91M May 4. Day 1 captured 0.7% of total prediction market volume. Polymarket ~$200-318M/day in 2026. HIP-3 perpetual permissionless markets grew ~10x post-launch but benefit from leverage; HIP-4 as fully-collateralized contracts has structurally lower velocity. Reaching 3-5% of prediction-market share by June implies $6-15M/day.
Initial Reasoning:
Key Uncertainties:
Evidence Sources (12):
Grounding Facts (passed to reviewers):
Draft: 5000000-10000000: 30.0%, 10000000-20000000: 27.0%, Below 5000000: 16.0%, 20000000-30000000: 13.0%, 30000000-50000000: 8.0%
Reviewer Panel:
Reviewer (reasoning)
The draft leans heavily on the first 5 days of trading to extrapolate monthly averages, ignoring likely deceleration after the initial launch surge and the absence of ongoing incentives. It also understates the difficulty of overcoming the 1M HYPE staking barrier, while overlooking comparable on-chain volume growth curves from Polymarket and Kalshi. Finally, it treats permissionless Phase 2 as an all-or-nothing binary event rather than modeling a gradual builder onboarding ramp.
Objections:
Reviewer (calibration)
The draft forecast appears to be overly conservative in its assessment of growth potential, particularly by underplaying the immediate impact of Hyperliquid’s existing high-value user base and the significant advantage of zero fees. It acknowledges these factors but doesn’t seem to fully integrate their potential for rapid scaling beyond the initial average. The reliance on new ‘curated markets’ for growth also lacks specificity regarding the expected volume contribution from these additions.
Objections:
Reviewer (fact-checker)
2 unsupported claim(s). Verdict: minor_issues
Unsupported claims:
Adjustment Rationale:
Adjusted after verifying reviewer claims. (1) Fact-checker correctly flagged two errors: HIP-3 staking is 500K HYPE not 1M (HIP-4 specifics unconfirmed), and HIP-4 is fully collateralized with no margin/cross-margin/liquidations — removing one of my bullish structural claims about velocity advantage vs. perps. These cancel out roughly: lower capital barrier helps permissionless adoption, but lack of leverage caps velocity vs. perp DEX comparisons. (2) Reasoning reviewer’s post-launch decay concern is partially valid (peak was day 3, May 4 at $3.91M, suggesting novelty effect) — added small weight to $5-10M modal bin and removed some weight from Below $5M since the existing $3.3M floor seems sticky given Hyperliquid’s engaged user base. (3) Calibration reviewer’s argument about existing user base power justified a small shift toward $20-30M. (4) Phase 2 permissionless timing remains unconfirmed in official sources — only ‘potential’ per CoinDesk reporting — keeping right tail modest. Ensemble signal of 60.4% is consistent with ~57% mass at $5M+ in my distribution.
forecast_sdk | 421.7s | research $0.6231 + reviewers $0.0109 + reconcile $0.3422 = $0.9762
Extracted Percentile Values: {0.1: 2700000, 1.0: 4200000, 5.0: 5900000, 10.0: 7400000, 15.0: 8800000, 20.0: 10000000, 25.0: 11300000, 30.0: 12700000, 35.0: 14100000, 40.0: 15600000, 45.0: 17000000, 46.0: 17300000, 47.0: 17600000, 48.0: 17900000, 49.0: 18300000, 50.0: 18700000, 51.0: 19100000, 52.0: 19500000, 53.0: 20000000, 54.0: 20500000, 55.0: 21000000, 60.0: 23800000, 65.0: 27200000, 70.0: 31500000, 75.0: 37000000, 80.0: 44500000, 85.0: 55000000, 90.0: 70000000, 95.0: 95000000, 99.0: 145000000, 99.9: 230000000}
Model’s Answer: Step one is anchoring on what is actually observed, while discounting hype and weak-source noise. The strongest available signal is that HIP-4 launched with roughly 6 million on day one, and the first week appears to have run somewhere in the mid-single-digit to high-single-digit millions per day on average, with at least one much higher spike. A later live snapshot around May 10 showed only about 2.47 million in the prior 24 hours, which argues against naively extrapolating the most bullish first-week prints.
Step two is adjusting for June specifically rather than “right now.” June should be higher than early May because HIP-4 will have had more time to onboard traders, and the planned permissionless market creation in mid-June is a real upside catalyst. But because it arrives mid-month, even a successful rollout only affects about half the resolution window. That pushes me toward a moderate rise in the June average daily volume rather than an immediate step-change to extremely large numbers.
Step three is checking against ecosystem share. The overall prediction-market complex is already very large. For HIP-4 to average 50 million per day in June, it would need to grab a meaningful share of global prediction-market flow very quickly. That is possible, but still a tail outcome given incumbents, network effects, and the limited time to compound growth before June ends. So I want the middle of the distribution comfortably above launch-week baseline, but the far-right tail to remain fairly thin.
The assumptions that matter most are the following. One is that the social-media-reported early HIP-4 notional volumes are directionally correct and reasonably close to the eventual official-API methodology; I think there is about a 30 percent chance this is materially wrong. Another is that permissionless market creation launches roughly on schedule and actually adds tradable breadth in June rather than slipping into late June or July; I assign about a 40 percent chance that this assumption partially fails. Another is that there is no major broad-market lull or one-off event surge that radically changes prediction-market activity in June; I assign about a 25 percent chance that this assumption fails.
A low outcome would come from launch enthusiasm fading, market creation slipping, and the official resolution methodology excluding some activity that social dashboards counted. I think outcomes below 8 million are meaningfully possible but not the base case. A high outcome would come from a successful mid-June permissionless rollout, strong builder uptake, and Hyperliquid’s cross-margin design pulling in much more hedging flow than competitors expect. That can create a convex upside tail, including some probability above 170 million, but I view that as a genuine long shot rather than a central scenario.
Percentile .1: 2,700,000 Percentile 1: 4,200,000 Percentile 5: 5,900,000 Percentile 10: 7,400,000 Percentile 15: 8,800,000 Percentile 20: 10,000,000 Percentile 25: 11,300,000 Percentile 30: 12,700,000 Percentile 35: 14,100,000 Percentile 40: 15,600,000 Percentile 45: 17,000,000 Percentile 46: 17,300,000 Percentile 47: 17,600,000 Percentile 48: 17,900,000 Percentile 49: 18,300,000 Percentile 50: 18,700,000 Percentile 51: 19,100,000 Percentile 52: 19,500,000 Percentile 53: 20,000,000 Percentile 54: 20,500,000 Percentile 55: 21,000,000 Percentile 60: 23,800,000 Percentile 65: 27,200,000 Percentile 70: 31,500,000 Percentile 75: 37,000,000 Percentile 80: 44,500,000 Percentile 85: 55,000,000 Percentile 90: 70,000,000 Percentile 95: 95,000,000 Percentile 99: 145,000,000 Percentile 99.9: 230,000,000
Forecast: median = 10,121,097.83
Overall, while there are positive catalysts on the horizon, the unresolved uncertainties lead to a cautious forecast.
Forecast (percentiles, aggregated):
Per-model forecasts:
Rationale: Summary Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 introduced natively cross-margined prediction markets on May 2, 2026, logging an average daily volume of approximately $3.3 million over its first five days. This baseline reflects a limited, curated market phase. The central estimate for June’s daily average volume is $25 million, supported by a projected tale of two halves. The first two weeks of June will likely see organic growth averaging $5 million to $10 million daily as the product matures. The second half of the month features two major, overlapping catalysts: the launch of permissionless market creation for third-party builders and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Permissionless creation is expected to exponentially expand the long-tail of tradable markets, while the World Cup historically acts as one of the highest-volume events for betting. If the latter half of June scales to $40 million or more daily, a blended monthly average near $25 million is highly plausible.
Strongest Arguments for Higher Values
Strongest Arguments for Lower Values
Key Uncertainties
Average Daily Hyperliquid HIP-4 Volume in June?
Key figures
Historical context
Tailwinds
Headwinds
Detailed reasoning
My analysis of the Average Daily Volume (ADV) for Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 markets in June 2026 centers on the intersection of early launch data, platform-specific structural advantages, and massive external catalysts.
Hyperliquid officially deployed HIP-4 on May 2, 2026. Initial metrics provided a clear baseline: day-one notional volume exceeded $6 million, and a single Bitcoin-linked binary contract generated over $2.3 million in its first 19 hours. While these figures represent a strong start, they are relatively small compared to the broader prediction market sector, which recorded nearly $30 billion in monthly volume in April 2026. At that time, HIP-4’s share was estimated at just 0.7%. However, Hyperliquid possesses a unique structural advantage: native cross-margining. Traders can use their existing collateral from the platform’s core derivatives business—which processes roughly $6 billion in daily volume—to trade prediction markets without bridging funds or managing siloed accounts. Research indicates that 3.3% of Polymarket users are already active on Hyperliquid, and these users account for 12% of Polymarket’s total volume, suggesting a highly fertile user base for migration.
The forecast for June is heavily weighted toward the second half of the month due to two major catalysts. First, the 2026 FIFA World Cup begins on June 11. Historically, major sporting events are the primary engines of prediction market volume; for example, the World Cup was previously the second-largest market in Polymarket’s history at $884 million. Second, Hyperliquid plans to roll out permissionless market creation for third-party builders in mid-June. This transition from a limited set of official markets to a decentralized “long-tail” of events is expected to serve as a volume multiplier.
In my reasoning, I modeled three primary scenarios. The base case (representing the majority of the probability mass) assumes a successful but steady ramp-up. In this scenario, early June volume holds at $10 million–$20 million daily, then surges to $50 million–$80 million following the permissionless launch and World Cup kickoff, resulting in a monthly average between $25 million and $50 million. An upside scenario accounts for a “breakout” where Hyperliquid captures 8%–15% of the total sector share (approximately $100 million daily), driven by the platform’s superior capital efficiency. Conversely, a downside scenario considers potential technical delays in the permissionless rollout or lower-than-expected user conversion, which would keep the daily average closer to $10 million–$15 million. The final most likely value of approximately $43.7 million reflects the expected surge in the latter half of the month balancing against the lower baseline of the first ten days.
Key uncertainties
Conclusion