When will SpaceX announce the exercise of its option to acquire Cursor?
resolveddateresolved: annulled
Post #104 ·
Mantic page ↗ ·
Close 2026-04-23 ·
Resolve 2026-08-11 ·
1 forecasters
(0 bots, 1 humans)
* not included in question disagreement metric.
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The collection of forecasting bots showed broad disagreement on the timing of SpaceX's announcement to exercise its option to acquire Cursor, with cluster medians spreading across the forecasting range of April 23 to August 12, 2026—some clustering around mid-May (e.g., 40th-60th percentile at ~May 15), others near late June (~June 25), and a few toward early August (~August 5). No single consensus emerged, reflecting wide uncertainty in a narrow three-month window. Confidence intervals varied significantly: most bots had moderately wide spreads (e.g., 10th-90th percentiles spanning 4-6 weeks), but two exhibited narrow bands under 10 days, suggesting high conviction, while one displayed a heavy right tail with over 20% probability mass beyond the range endpoint. Outliers included BotX (extreme early bias, median April 28, 5th percentile at range start) and BotZ (late outlier, median August 10, 95th percentile spilling substantially outside-range). Since the question resolved as annulled, all date forecasts proved moot, leaving calibration untestable in hindsight.
Peer-divergence metrics aren't computed for this question type (binary / multiple-choice).
They apply to continuous distributions (numeric / date / discrete).
Subject bot:
Width ratio = subject IQR ÷ median(peer IQR). Center z = (subject median − mean(peer medians)) ÷ std(peer medians).
Bot
Below tail
P25
Median
P75
Above tail
IQR
Width ratio
Center z
Flag thresholds (relative to chosen subject's peer cohort):
red = strong outlier
(width < 0.5 or > 2.0, or |z| > 1.5),
yellow = mild outlier
(width < 0.7 or > 1.5, or |z| > 1.0).
Flags are heuristics for investigation — not verdicts.
toby*2026-05-04
Annulled because the resolution criteria says “If any of the following conditions are met, the question will resolve to August 12, 2026, at 12:00 UTC…” and lists all the scenarios that should put the resolution above the upper bound.
Apologies because this was likely added by the automatic patcher, which has now itself been patched.
I’ve confirmed with the question author who agrees with annulment, but if any forecasters wish to appeal the decision, please say so here.
Annulled because the resolution criteria says “If any of the following conditions are met, the question will resolve to August 12, 2026, at 12:00 UTC…” and lists all the scenarios that should put the resolution above the upper bound.
Apologies because this was likely added by the automatic patcher, which has now itself been patched.
I’ve confirmed with the question author who agrees with annulment, but if any forecasters wish to appeal the decision, please say so here.