Scenario wins: lewinke-thinking-bot* (19) cassi (9) smingers-bot (5) Mantic (4) pgodzinbot (4) hayek-bot (3)
| Figure/Metric | Value | Source | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Cumulative Cases | 19,482 | MOH SitRep No. 59 | Total burden since Jan 1, 2025. |
| New Cases (Epi-week 22) | 157 | MOH SitRep No. 59 | Baseline for weekly incidence. |
| Leader Cases (Epi-week 22) | 11 | MOH SitRep No. 59 | Palauli No. 2 (Latest leader). |
| Leader Cases (Epi-week 21) | 12 | MOH SitRep No. 58 | Safata No. 1 (Prior leader). |
| Upolu Share of Cases | 92% | MOH SitRep No. 59 | Indicates geographic burden concentration. |
| Under 15 Age Group | 73% | MOH SitRep No. 59 | High vulnerability in children. |
| Total Samoa Population | 205,557 | 2021 Census | Basis for tie-breaking and density. |
Question: which Samoa constituency will report the most new dengue cases in the Samoa MoH situation report published on or before July 20, 2026. The decisive source is the latest official MoH SitRep (use the current-week “Top 5 districts” table if present), and the latest available SitRep (Issue 59, epi‑week 22, May 25–31) lists Palauli No. 2 leading with 11 new cases and Safata No. 1 second with 8. Forecasters largely agree to put the most weight on Palauli No. 2 and Safata No. 1 because they are recent repeat leaders, while also assigning meaningful probability to Aiga‑i‑le‑Tai, A‘ana Alofi (esp. No. 4), Gagaifomauga No. 2 and Aleipata Itupa‑i‑Lalo based on recent weekly peaks. Weekly maxima have declined from earlier 2026 highs (now often ~8–12), so outcomes are high‑variance: a swing of a few cases or an incomplete report (Issue 59 had 10/11 sites reporting) can change the winner. If the July report reverts to cumulative or aggregated geography, historical concentration in Apia/North West Upolu (Faleata/Vaimauga, esp. Faleata No. 1) and the question’s mapping/tie‑break by census population become more important.
Forecast:
As of mid-June 2026, the latest MoH Dengue Fever Outbreak Situation Reports cited by the team (e.g., Issue 58–59 for May 2026) show that the weekly “top district” by new cases rotates frequently, with maxima typically in the high single digits to low teens (e.g., Palauli No. 2 and Safata No. 1 often appearing near the top). That volatility, plus ~5 weeks of lead time to July 20, 2026, argues against extreme confidence in any single constituency. I therefore (1) weight recurring recent leaders (Palauli No. 2, Safata No. 1, Lefaga and Falese’ela, Aiga-i-le-Tai, Gagaifomauga No. 2, Vaisigano No. 1, Satupa’itea, Gagaemauga No. 2, Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo, and A’ana Alofi No. 4), (2) keep meaningful probability on other plausible contenders including urban Apia-area constituencies (Vaimauga/Faleata/Sagaga) given population/density and the possibility of tighter distributions/ties, and (3) maintain a non-trivial long tail because small-number weekly counts make surprise spikes common.
An amateur forecast would likely either (a) anchor heavily on the most recent leader (e.g., Palauli No. 2) and overconcentrate probability, or (b) spread probability nearly uniformly and ignore clear recurrence patterns in recent sitreps. This forecast combines the observed “repeat contender” set from multiple recent reports with appropriate uncertainty several weeks out, while also reflecting the resolution’s tie-handling incentives (which modestly favor high-population urban constituencies if the weekly maximum compresses). My confidence in this being better calibrated than an amateur forecast is moderate, limited mainly by genuine week-to-week stochasticity and the possibility that report geographic granularity changes.
Forecast rationale:
— Iteration 1 — Across the forecasts, the dominant view is that the latest report is most likely to be led by a constituency in Upolu, especially the Apia urban area / northwest Upolu corridor. The reasoning is consistent:
The shared forecast logic is that the top constituency will most likely be found in the highest-density dengue hotspot on Upolu, with Vaimauga and Faleata the leading contenders and population/tie-break rules potentially decisive if the official reporting is aggregated.
— Iteration 2 — Across the forecasts, the core reasoning is fairly consistent:
The collective reasoning strongly favors an urban Upolu constituency as the most likely top reporter of dengue cases, but the exact winner remains uncertain because the official report may aggregate cases above constituency level and weekly outbreak patterns can shift.
— Iteration 3 —
The forecasts converge on a few core ideas:
The main dengue hotspot is still on Upolu, especially the Apia Urban Area and North-West Upolu.
The dominant epidemiological signal is that most reported cases have come from Upolu, with repeated emphasis on urban and peri-urban constituencies around Apia. This makes constituencies in Tuamasaga—especially Vaimauga, Faleata, and Sagaga—the most likely candidates to top the next report.
Reporting format matters as much as the epidemiology.
A major part of the reasoning is that Samoa’s Ministry of Health often reports cases by district or aggregate area rather than by a single constituency. If a broader area is reported, multiple constituencies can effectively share the same case total. In that situation, the forecast hinges on the population tie-breaker, which favors the most populous constituency inside the reported area.
The leading contenders differ, but they are all urban Tuamasaga seats.
The main disagreement is not about geography, but about which constituency inside the hotspot is most likely to be credited with the highest count:
There is broad agreement on uncertainty and possible week-to-week shifts.
Because the latest July 2026 report is not yet available and recent hotspot patterns can shift, the forecasts avoid overconfidence in any single constituency. The overall view is that the top report is most likely to come from an urban Upolu constituency, but the exact winner depends on whether the report is constituency-specific or an aggregate district-level update.
The shared reasoning points to urban Tuamasaga constituencies in and around Apia as the most likely source of the highest reported dengue case count, with Faleata No. 3, Vaimauga No. 1, and Faleata No. 1 emerging as the strongest individual candidates.
Based on a synthesis of the provided rationales, the forecasts are driven by a combination of current epidemiological data and the specific structural rules governing how the data will be resolved.
Epidemiological Trends and Geographic Concentration The rationales universally agree that Samoa’s dengue outbreak is overwhelmingly concentrated on the main island of Upolu, which routinely accounts for the vast majority of new cases. Within Upolu, transmission is densely clustered in the Apia Urban Area (AUA) and the North West Upolu (NWU) statistical regions. The traditional districts of Faleata and Vaimauga are consistently identified as the primary outbreak hotspots. This urban concentration is driven by high population density, favorable vector ecology, and a strong surveillance bias—residents in these areas have the easiest access to the Tupua Tamasese Meaole (TTM) Hospital in Apia, where the bulk of laboratory testing is conducted. Rural districts and the island of Savai’i are largely discounted due to minimal case volumes.
Reporting Mechanics and Tie-Breaker Rules A critical driver across all rationales is the Ministry of Health’s (MoH) reporting format intersecting with the prompt’s resolution criteria. The MoH alternates between publishing granular, constituency-level data and reporting by broad regional aggregates (e.g., AUA, NWU, or “Faleata District”). The resolution rules state that if an aggregate grouping is reported as the highest, its case count is attributed to all constituent constituencies, resulting in a tie. This tie is broken by the constituency with the highest “Total” population according to the Samoa 2021 Census. Consequently, population size grants massive structural advantages.
Key Contenders Due to these dynamics, the largest constituencies within the outbreak epicenters are the heavy favorites:
Conclusion The rationales overwhelmingly agree that the winner will be drawn from the Faleata or Vaimauga districts. Faleata No. 1 and Faleata No. 2 are the clear favorites due to their position at the intersection of high localized outbreak severity and unbeatable structural advantages in population-based tie-breakers.
Question: Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026? Final Prediction:
Total Cost: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Time Spent: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled LLMs: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled Bot Name: extra_metadata_in_explanation is disabled
Forecaster 1:
Forecaster 2:
The research reports that Samoa has experienced a sustained dengue outbreak since early 2025 (officially declared 17 April 2025) and, as of the most recent data found (week ending 24 May 2026), the Ministry of Health recorded 19,325 clinically diagnosed cases, 5,461 lab-confirmed cases, and nine dengue-related deaths. Circulating serotypes are DENV‑1 (54–68%) and DENV‑2 (32–46%), children under 15 account for about 74% of cases, and weekly new case counts were 167 for the week ending 24 May 2026 (a 7% decrease from the prior week). The outbreak remains active into mid‑2026 with Samoa at a “blue alert” level.
Geographically, the outbreak has been concentrated on Upolu island (about 92% of cases) and especially in the Apia Urban Area and North West Upolu (notably Faleata District). Constituency‑level reports in 2025–2026 repeatedly flagged Anoamaa 1 (often highest on Upolu) and Palauli constituencies on Savai’i as leading in specific weeks; May 2026 top-affected districts included Gagaifomauga, Safata, Lefaga ma Faleaseela, Satupaitea, Palauli, Anoamaa, Vaimauga, and Faleata. The research emphasizes weekly volatility in which constituency leads, notes Faleata 1 as the single most populous constituency (per the 2021 census), and identifies top constituencies to watch (Tier 1: Anoamaa 1, Faleata 1, Vaimauga 3/4; Tier 2: other Faleata and Vaimauga seats, Gagaifomauga, Palauli), while also listing key uncertainties such as reporting granularity and shifting week‑to‑week patterns.
Sources/websites used (as cited in the research):
Samoa has been experiencing a sustained dengue fever outbreak since early 2025, officially declared on April 17, 2025 [4]. As of May 24, 2026 (the most recent data found), the Ministry of Health reported:
The outbreak remains ongoing as of early June 2026, with Samoa maintaining a “blue alert” status [21][22].
The outbreak has been concentrated in:
Based on weekly situation reports from the Samoa Ministry of Health:
Top affected districts included: Gagaifomauga, Safata, Lefaga ma Faleaseela, Satupaitea, Palauli, Anoamaa, Vaimauga, and Faleata
Samoa has 51 faipule-level electoral constituencies [17][18], including:
According to the 2021 Census [15][16]:
The outbreak has shown fluctuating patterns:
The background information notes that “the leading district has shifted week to week across both main islands,” indicating volatility in geographic distribution.
Urban concentration: Dengue is primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which have “adapted to the urban environment, is generally found close to human habitation” [23][27]
Population density matters: Urban and densely populated areas typically report higher case numbers in absolute terms
Seasonal patterns: “In endemic areas, dengue infections peak when rainfall is optimal for mosquito breeding” [23][27]. Samoa’s tropical climate with rainy seasons facilitates year-round transmission
Age distribution: Children under 15 represent 74% of cases [8], relevant for areas with higher youth populations
Multiple serotype circulation: Samoa has both DENV-1 and DENV-2 circulating, creating a “hyperendemic” situation that increases risk of severe disease [23][27]
Based on the evidence, the most likely high-case constituencies for a July 2026 report are:
No active prediction markets found for this specific question on Polymarket, Metaculus, or other major forecasting platforms. This is an extremely granular question focused on a small Pacific island nation’s constituency-level health data.
Given the evidence:
A superforecaster should weight recent trends (May 2026 data) most heavily while noting that Anoamaa 1 and Faleata constituencies have shown the most consistent elevated case numbers throughout the outbreak.
I agree with the critic’s main update: this is now as much a publication-cadence / resolution-mechanics forecast as an epidemiological one. I rechecked the official MoH site, and the dengue outbreak item still points to Dengue SitRep Issue No. 59; that report is for Epi-week 22, May 25–31, 2026, dated June 1, 2026. In that report, the current-week table has Palauli 2 = 11 cases, ahead of Safata 1 = 8, then a group at 7 and lower. (health.gov.ws)
That makes Palauli No. 2 the right top choice, and I am moving it up to 14%. I still do not want to go much higher: Issue 59 still had 157 new cases and 14 lab-confirmed cases, so a complete stop in reporting is not the default, and the reports’ own “outbreak over” criterion requires 28 days without new lab-confirmed cases. (health.gov.ws)
I also accept the critic’s point that older Aiga-i-le-Tai / A‘ana Alofi 4 signal should decay. They were very strong in March–early April, but late April–May leaders rotated through Safata 1, Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo, Palauli 2, Gagaifomauga 2, Safata 1 again, and Palauli 2 again. (health.gov.ws)
I am raising Palauli No. 1 as a mechanics hedge. If a later report uses an aggregate label like “Palauli,” the mapping/tie-break rules would likely favor Palauli 1 because the 2021 census population is larger for Palauli 1 than Palauli 2 or Palauli 3. (sbs.gov.ws) I am also raising Faleata No. 1 slightly, not because recent dengue tables favor it, but because it is the most populous political district and benefits from broad aggregates or ties. (sbs.gov.ws)
I continue to keep a broad tail. The current leading counts are small—single digits to low teens—so a school cluster, clinic catch-up, delayed facility submission, or minor reporting artifact can flip the leader. I also avoid overusing the “92% Upolu” figure because recent reports show a suspicious shift from the earlier 64% Upolu / 36% Savai‘i split to 92% / 7%, which looks like either a definition change or reporting inconsistency. (health.gov.ws)
Conditioning on the question resolving to one of the listed constituencies rather than Ambiguous, my updated forecast is:
Updated prediction:
Vaimauga No. 1: 0.8%
Vaimauga No. 2: 0.8%
Vaimauga No. 3: 1.4%
Vaimauga No. 4: 0.6%
Faleata No. 1: 3.3%
Faleata No. 2: 1.0%
Faleata No. 3: 0.8%
Faleata No. 4: 0.4%
Sagaga No. 1: 0.4%
Sagaga No. 2: 0.2%
Sagaga No. 3: 0.2%
Sagaga No. 4: 0.7%
A’ana Alofi No. 1: 3.2%
A’ana Alofi No. 2: 3.0%
A’ana Alofi No. 3: 3.6%
A’ana Alofi No. 4: 4.8%
Aiga-i-le-Tai: 5.8%
Falelatai & Samatau: 1.5%
Lefaga and Falese’ela: 4.8%
Safata No. 1: 7.7%
Safata No. 2: 1.9%
Si’umu: 0.3%
Falealili No. 1: 0.3%
Falealili No. 2: 0.2%
Lotofaga: 0.2%
Lepa: 0.7%
Aleipata Itupa-i-luga: 0.3%
Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo: 3.5%
Va’a-o-Fonoti: 0.4%
Anoama’a No. 1: 1.5%
Anoama’a No. 2: 0.8%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 1: 1.1%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 2: 0.7%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 3: 0.3%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 4: 0.8%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 5: 0.2%
Gagaemauga No. 1: 0.6%
Gagaemauga No. 2: 3.7%
Gagaifomauga No. 1: 1.4%
Gagaifomauga No. 2: 3.9%
Gagaifomauga No. 3: 1.6%
Vaisigano No. 1: 2.9%
Vaisigano No. 2: 0.6%
Falealupo: 0.2%
Alataua Sisifo: 0.9%
Salega No. 1: 0.9%
Salega No. 2: 0.2%
Palauli No. 1: 4.3%
Palauli No. 2: 14.0%
Satupa’itea: 3.9%
Palauli No. 3: 2.7%
(a) Time left: 36 days from today, June 14, 2026, to July 20, 2026. If Samoa’s weekly cadence continues, the resolving report will likely be around epi-week 28/29; if no later report is available, the latest currently visible official report would be the fallback.
(b) Outside view: The relevant reference class is Samoa’s weekly dengue situation reports during the current outbreak, where the “top district” is usually a small-count, volatile weekly leader rather than a stable population-weighted winner. A uniform prior over 51 constituencies is about 2.0% each, but recent empirical base rates point to a cluster of repeat leaders: Aiga-i-le-Tai, A‘ana Alofi No. 4, Safata No. 1, Palauli No. 2, Gagaifomauga No. 2, Lefaga/Falese‘ela, Satupa‘itea, and Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo. Samoa remains a frequent/continuous dengue-risk country, and official reports continue to show ongoing weekly cases. (cdc.gov)
(c) Inside view: The latest official report I found, Issue No. 59, for epi-week 22 ending May 31, 2026, lists Palauli 2 as the current top district with 11 cases, followed by Safata 1 with 8. The prior week, Safata 1 led with 12; epi-week 20 was led by Gagaifomauga 2 with 9; epi-week 19 by Palauli 2 with 8; and epi-week 18 by Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo with 9. This recent sequence makes me overweight Palauli No. 2, Safata No. 1, Gagaifomauga No. 2, and Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo relative to older 2025 evidence. (health.gov.ws)
(d) Status quo outcome if nothing changed: Palauli No. 2, because it is the leader in the latest official report I found before today: Issue No. 59, report date June 1, 2026, epi-week 22. (health.gov.ws)
(e) Unexpected-outcome scenario: A short-lived cluster in the Apia/Faleata/Vaimauga area, or a change in reporting aggregation to a broader district label such as “Faleata” or “Vaimauga,” could push a large urban constituency such as Faleata No. 1 or Vaimauga No. 3 to the top. Faleata No. 1 has the largest population in the 2021 census, and the Apia Urban Area includes Vaimauga 2, Vaimauga 3, Vaimauga 4, and Faleata 1, so broad aggregate reporting plus the tie-break rule would materially help those urban options. (sbs.gov.ws)
Rationale: I start from a diffuse base rate because 51 constituencies are eligible and the official weekly leaders have shifted repeatedly with small absolute case counts. The current empirical pattern is more informative than the older 2025 pattern: the March–April leaders were often Aiga-i-le-Tai and A‘ana Alofi No. 4, but the most recent May/June sequence has rotated through Palauli No. 2, Safata No. 1, Gagaifomauga No. 2, and Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo. I therefore make Palauli No. 2 the single most likely outcome, but only at 8.5%, because there are still about five weeks of epidemiological and reporting drift before resolution, and recent top counts are low enough that random local clusters can easily change the leader.
I keep Safata No. 1 close behind because it led epi-week 21 and had a strong recent high in epi-week 17. I keep Aiga-i-le-Tai and A‘ana Alofi No. 4 high because they led multiple earlier 2026 reports and could re-emerge. I discount the dense Apia/Faleata/Vaimauga constituencies relative to a pure population model because recent official “top 5” tables have not been dominated by them, but I still give Faleata No. 1 and Vaimauga No. 3 above-baseline probabilities because of population, urban exposure, and possible aggregation/tie-break effects. Probabilities below are normalized over the listed constituencies only.
Vaimauga No. 1: 1.2%
Vaimauga No. 2: 0.6%
Vaimauga No. 3: 2.7%
Vaimauga No. 4: 0.8%
Faleata No. 1: 3.2%
Faleata No. 2: 0.9%
Faleata No. 3: 1.3%
Faleata No. 4: 0.3%
Sagaga No. 1: 0.7%
Sagaga No. 2: 0.3%
Sagaga No. 3: 0.3%
Sagaga No. 4: 0.7%
A’ana Alofi No. 1: 1.3%
A’ana Alofi No. 2: 0.9%
A’ana Alofi No. 3: 3.5%
A’ana Alofi No. 4: 7.0%
Aiga-i-le-Tai: 7.5%
Falelatai & Samatau: 1.2%
Lefaga and Falese’ela: 5.0%
Safata No. 1: 8.0%
Safata No. 2: 1.8%
Si’umu: 0.4%
Falealili No. 1: 0.4%
Falealili No. 2: 0.2%
Lotofaga: 0.3%
Lepa: 0.6%
Aleipata Itupa-i-luga: 0.4%
Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo: 4.5%
Va’a-o-Fonoti: 0.3%
Anoama’a No. 1: 2.7%
Anoama’a No. 2: 0.6%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 1: 1.4%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 2: 2.5%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 3: 0.5%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 4: 1.0%
Fa’asalele’aga No. 5: 0.3%
Gagaemauga No. 1: 0.3%
Gagaemauga No. 2: 3.7%
Gagaifomauga No. 1: 1.5%
Gagaifomauga No. 2: 5.5%
Gagaifomauga No. 3: 1.5%
Vaisigano No. 1: 1.5%
Vaisigano No. 2: 0.3%
Falealupo: 0.1%
Alataua Sisifo: 0.8%
Salega No. 1: 0.8%
Salega No. 2: 0.3%
Palauli No. 1: 1.6%
Palauli No. 2: 8.5%
Satupa’itea: 4.8%
Palauli No. 3: 3.5%
Modal: Safata No. 1 (6.4%) • frontier aggregate • 5m40s
Edge cases:
| Agent | Forecast | Rationale | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| frontier_1 | Modal: Safata No. 1 (9.0%) | Latest available official MoH dengue sitrep (Issue 58, Epi-week 21: May 18–24, 2026) lists Safata No. 1 as the top district (12 new cases), with other high-reporting constituencies | complete |
| frontier_2 | Modal: Safata No. 1 (8.6%) | The latest available sitrep (Issue No. 58, Epi-week 21, May 18-24 2026) shows top districts: Safata 1 (12), Lefaga ma Faleaseela (8), Satupaitea (6). The leading district shifts we | complete |
| frontier_3 | Modal: Gagaifomauga No. 2 (3.8%) | Samoa’s dengue case counts at the constituency level are extremely low and highly volatile week-to-week, often hitting 5 to 15 cases for the top spots. Recent situation reports fro | complete |
| frontier_4 | Modal: Faleata No. 1 (14.0%) | All available 2025–2026 MoH sitreps show the highest case density in the Apia Urban Area (AUA) and North West Upolu (NWU) aggregates. These map to the Vaimauga, Faleata and Sagaga | complete |
Three agents (frontier_1, frontier_2, frontier_3) anchor on the same MoH sitrep and produce broadly similar, defensibly wide distributions that reflect week-to-week volatility. frontier_4 also uses MoH sitreps but produces a much narrower distribution that zeroes out several constituencies explicitly named as recent leaders in the cited sitrep; that narrowing is not well supported and should be treated as lower quality in aggregation until the resolver source is checked. All forecasts are necessarily prior-based now and should be re-evaluated when the MoH report available on/before July 20 is fetched.
Agreement: Aggregated 4 comparable prediction maps on the canonical bin space.
Disagreement: See per-agent rationales: Latest available official MoH dengue sitrep (Issue 58, Epi-week 21: May 18–24, 2026) lists Safata No. 1 as the top district (12 new cases), with other high-reporting constituencies including Lefaga and Falese’ela, Satupa’itea, Vaisigano No. 1, Vaimauga No. 2, Gagaifomauga No. 3, and Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo. Given strong week-to-week volatility and a one-month gap to the July 20 snapshot, the forecast spreads probability across constituencies repeatedly appearing in recent Top-5, with a modest edge to Safata No. 1 and other recent leaders. Significant mass remains on other plausible Upolu and Savai’i constituencies due to shifting transmission hotspots and potential aggregate naming/mapping effects. / The latest available sitrep (Issue No. 58, Epi-week 21, May 18-24 2026) shows top districts: Safata 1 (12), Lefaga ma Faleaseela (8), Satupaitea (6). The leading district shifts week-to-week. Recent weeks have featured Gagaifomauga 2, Vaisigano 1, Safata 1, Lefaga, Satupaitea, Palauli 3. Given high volatility and ~2 months until July 20, I spread probability across recently-leading constituencies with extra weight on Safata No. 1 (current leader) and Lefaga and Falese’ela, and modest weight to historical contenders including urban Apia area constituencies (Vaimauga/Faleata) which appear in aggregate reports. I distribute the rest across all 51 bins as a weak prior. / Samoa’s dengue case counts at the constituency level are extremely low and highly volatile week-to-week, often hitting 5 to 15 cases for the top spots. Recent situation reports from late May 2026 highlight constituencies like Safata No. 1, Lefaga and Falese’ela, Satupa’itea, Gagaifomauga No. 2, and Vaisigano No. 1 as having top spots in new case admissions. However, because the outbreak fluctuates wildly across Upolu and Savai’i every week and this forecast aims for ~8 weeks into the future, we distribute probability very broadly. A minor boost is allocated to recently mentioned “hot” constituencies and densely populated urban areas (Vaimauga, Faleata, Sagaga) which have a naturally higher underlying susceptibility due to population.
Mechanical frontier aggregation via logit_mean across 4 successful agents.
(frontier_1) Latest available official MoH dengue sitrep (Issue 58, Epi-week 21: May 18–24, 2026) lists Safata No. 1 as the top district (12 new cases), with other high-reporting constituencies including Lefaga and Falese’ela, Satupa’itea, Vaisigano No. 1, Vaimauga No. 2, Gagaifomauga No. 3, and Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo. Given strong week-to-week volatility and a one-month gap to the July 20 snapshot, the forecast spreads probability across constituencies repeatedly appearing in recent Top-5, with a modest edge to Safata No. 1 and other recent leaders. Significant mass remains on other plausible Upolu and Savai’i constituencies due to shifting transmission hotspots and potential aggregate naming/mapping effects.
(frontier_2) The latest available sitrep (Issue No. 58, Epi-week 21, May 18-24 2026) shows top districts: Safata 1 (12), Lefaga ma Faleaseela (8), Satupaitea (6). The leading district shifts week-to-week. Recent weeks have featured Gagaifomauga 2, Vaisigano 1, Safata 1, Lefaga, Satupaitea, Palauli 3. Given high volatility and ~2 months until July 20, I spread probability across recently-leading constituencies with extra weight on Safata No. 1 (current leader) and Lefaga and Falese’ela, and modest weight to historical contenders including urban Apia area constituencies (Vaimauga/Faleata) which appear in aggregate reports. I distribute the rest across all 51 bins as a weak prior.
(frontier_3) Samoa’s dengue case counts at the constituency level are extremely low and highly volatile week-to-week, often hitting 5 to 15 cases for the top spots. Recent situation reports from late May 2026 highlight constituencies like Safata No. 1, Lefaga and Falese’ela, Satupa’itea, G…
| Bin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vaimauga No. 1 | 3.9% |
| Vaimauga No. 2 | 3.7% |
| Vaimauga No. 3 | 3.0% |
| Vaimauga No. 4 | 2.6% |
| Faleata No. 1 | 3.2% |
| Faleata No. 2 | 3.1% |
| Faleata No. 3 | 2.8% |
| Faleata No. 4 | 2.6% |
| Sagaga No. 1 | 2.0% |
| Sagaga No. 2 | 2.0% |
| Sagaga No. 3 | 2.0% |
| Sagaga No. 4 | 2.5% |
| A’ana Alofi No. 1 | 1.1% |
| A’ana Alofi No. 2 | 1.1% |
| A’ana Alofi No. 3 | 1.5% |
| A’ana Alofi No. 4 | 1.1% |
| Aiga-i-le-Tai | 1.3% |
| Falelatai & Samatau | 1.2% |
| Lefaga and Falese’ela | 4.9% |
| Safata No. 1 | 6.4% |
| Safata No. 2 | 2.9% |
| Si’umu | 1.2% |
| Falealili No. 1 | 1.2% |
| Falealili No. 2 | 1.2% |
| Lotofaga | 1.0% |
| Lepa | 1.5% |
| Aleipata Itupa-i-luga | 1.0% |
| Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo | 1.8% |
| Va’a-o-Fonoti | 0.8% |
| Anoama’a No. 1 | 1.5% |
| Anoama’a No. 2 | 1.1% |
| Fa’asalele’aga No. 1 | 1.2% |
| Fa’asalele’aga No. 2 | 1.2% |
| Fa’asalele’aga No. 3 | 1.2% |
| Fa’asalele’aga No. 4 | 1.2% |
| Fa’asalele’aga No. 5 | 1.2% |
| Gagaemauga No. 1 | 1.1% |
| Gagaemauga No. 2 | 1.1% |
| Gagaifomauga No. 1 | 1.3% |
| Gagaifomauga No. 2 | 3.4% |
| Gagaifomauga No. 3 | 1.9% |
| Vaisigano No. 1 | 3.2% |
| Vaisigano No. 2 | 1.5% |
| Falealupo | 1.1% |
| Alataua Sisifo | 1.1% |
| Salega No. 1 | 1.2% |
| Salega No. 2 | 1.2% |
| Palauli No. 1 | 1.5% |
| Palauli No. 2 | 1.5% |
| Satupa’itea | 3.5% |
| Palauli No. 3 | 2.3% |
wooley_rhino • run d3d06901 • $3.52 • 5m40s
All Predictions: [{‘Vaimauga No. 1’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Vaimauga No. 2’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Vaimauga No. 3’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Vaimauga No. 4’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Faleata No. 1’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Faleata No. 2’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Faleata No. 3’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Faleata No. 4’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 1’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 2’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 3’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 4’: 0.009999999999999995, “A’ana Alofi No. 1”: 0.01999999999999999, “A’ana Alofi No. 2”: 0.009999999999999995, “A’ana Alofi No. 3”: 0.009999999999999995, “A’ana Alofi No. 4”: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Aiga-i-le-Tai’: 0.04999999999999998, ‘Falelatai & Samatau’: 0.009999999999999995, “Lefaga and Falese’ela”: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Safata No. 1’: 0.06999999999999998, ‘Safata No. 2’: 0.01999999999999999, “Si’umu”: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Falealili No. 1’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Falealili No. 2’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Lotofaga’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Lepa’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-luga’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo’: 0.009999999999999995, “Va’a-o-Fonoti”: 0.009999999999999995, “Anoama’a No. 1”: 0.029999999999999985, “Anoama’a No. 2”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 1”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 2”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 3”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 4”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 5”: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Gagaemauga No. 1’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Gagaemauga No. 2’: 0.04999999999999998, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 1’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 2’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 3’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Vaisigano No. 1’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Vaisigano No. 2’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Falealupo’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Alataua Sisifo’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Salega No. 1’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Salega No. 2’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Palauli No. 1’: 0.029999999999999985, ‘Palauli No. 2’: 0.05999999999999997, “Satupa’itea”: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Palauli No. 3’: 0.01999999999999999}, {‘Vaimauga No. 1’: 0.04166666666666665, ‘Vaimauga No. 2’: 0.03333333333333332, ‘Vaimauga No. 3’: 0.024999999999999988, ‘Vaimauga No. 4’: 0.01666666666666666, ‘Faleata No. 1’: 0.01666666666666666, ‘Faleata No. 2’: 0.03333333333333332, ‘Faleata No. 3’: 0.01666666666666666, ‘Faleata No. 4’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Sagaga No. 1’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Sagaga No. 2’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Sagaga No. 3’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Sagaga No. 4’: 0.00833333333333333, “A’ana Alofi No. 1”: 0.01666666666666666, “A’ana Alofi No. 2”: 0.024999999999999988, “A’ana Alofi No. 3”: 0.01666666666666666, “A’ana Alofi No. 4”: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Aiga-i-le-Tai’: 0.04166666666666665, ‘Falelatai & Samatau’: 0.00833333333333333, “Lefaga and Falese’ela”: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Safata No. 1’: 0.07499999999999996, ‘Safata No. 2’: 0.01666666666666666, “Si’umu”: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Falealili No. 1’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Falealili No. 2’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Lotofaga’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Lepa’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-luga’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo’: 0.00833333333333333, “Va’a-o-Fonoti”: 0.00833333333333333, “Anoama’a No. 1”: 0.058333333333333307, “Anoama’a No. 2”: 0.01666666666666666, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 1”: 0.00833333333333333, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 2”: 0.00833333333333333, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 3”: 0.00833333333333333, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 4”: 0.00833333333333333, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 5”: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Gagaemauga No. 1’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Gagaemauga No. 2’: 0.049999999999999975, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 1’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 2’: 0.058333333333333307, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 3’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Vaisigano No. 1’: 0.049999999999999975, ‘Vaisigano No. 2’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Falealupo’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Alataua Sisifo’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Salega No. 1’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Salega No. 2’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Palauli No. 1’: 0.00833333333333333, ‘Palauli No. 2’: 0.07499999999999996, “Satupa’itea”: 0.058333333333333307, ‘Palauli No. 3’: 0.00833333333333444}, {‘Vaimauga No. 1’: 0.03690036900369003, ‘Vaimauga No. 2’: 0.03966789667896677, ‘Vaimauga No. 3’: 0.032287822878228775, ‘Vaimauga No. 4’: 0.016605166051660514, ‘Faleata No. 1’: 0.01476014760147601, ‘Faleata No. 2’: 0.017527675276752763, ‘Faleata No. 3’: 0.016605166051660514, ‘Faleata No. 4’: 0.011070110701107009, ‘Sagaga No. 1’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Sagaga No. 2’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Sagaga No. 3’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Sagaga No. 4’: 0.009225092250922507, “A’ana Alofi No. 1”: 0.009225092250922507, “A’ana Alofi No. 2”: 0.02306273062730627, “A’ana Alofi No. 3”: 0.018450184501845015, “A’ana Alofi No. 4”: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Aiga-i-le-Tai’: 0.02952029520295202, ‘Falelatai & Samatau’: 0.009225092250922507, “Lefaga and Falese’ela”: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Safata No. 1’: 0.07841328413284131, ‘Safata No. 2’: 0.016605166051660514, “Si’umu”: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Falealili No. 1’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Falealili No. 2’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Lotofaga’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Lepa’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-luga’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo’: 0.009225092250922507, “Va’a-o-Fonoti”: 0.009225092250922507, “Anoama’a No. 1”: 0.04889298892988928, “Anoama’a No. 2”: 0.012915129151291508, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 1”: 0.009225092250922507, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 2”: 0.009225092250922507, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 3”: 0.009225092250922507, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 4”: 0.009225092250922507, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 5”: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Gagaemauga No. 1’: 0.010147601476014758, ‘Gagaemauga No. 2’: 0.032287822878228775, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 1’: 0.01383763837638376, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 2’: 0.059963099630996296, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 3’: 0.011070110701107009, ‘Vaisigano No. 1’: 0.05535055350553504, ‘Vaisigano No. 2’: 0.01383763837638376, ‘Falealupo’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Alataua Sisifo’: 0.009225092250922507, ‘Salega No. 1’: 0.010147601476014758, ‘Salega No. 2’: 0.011070110701107009, ‘Palauli No. 1’: 0.01383763837638376, ‘Palauli No. 2’: 0.07380073800738006, “Satupa’itea”: 0.059963099630996296, ‘Palauli No. 3’: 0.009225092250922952}, {‘Vaimauga No. 1’: 0.029999999999999985, ‘Vaimauga No. 2’: 0.029999999999999985, ‘Vaimauga No. 3’: 0.029999999999999985, ‘Vaimauga No. 4’: 0.029999999999999985, ‘Faleata No. 1’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Faleata No. 2’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Faleata No. 3’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Faleata No. 4’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 1’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 2’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 3’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Sagaga No. 4’: 0.009999999999999995, “A’ana Alofi No. 1”: 0.01999999999999999, “A’ana Alofi No. 2”: 0.01999999999999999, “A’ana Alofi No. 3”: 0.01999999999999999, “A’ana Alofi No. 4”: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Aiga-i-le-Tai’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Falelatai & Samatau’: 0.009999999999999995, “Lefaga and Falese’ela”: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Safata No. 1’: 0.07999999999999996, ‘Safata No. 2’: 0.01999999999999999, “Si’umu”: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Falealili No. 1’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Falealili No. 2’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Lotofaga’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Lepa’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-luga’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo’: 0.009999999999999995, “Va’a-o-Fonoti”: 0.009999999999999995, “Anoama’a No. 1”: 0.03999999999999998, “Anoama’a No. 2”: 0.01999999999999999, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 1”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 2”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 3”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 4”: 0.009999999999999995, “Fa’asalele’aga No. 5”: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Gagaemauga No. 1’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Gagaemauga No. 2’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 1’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 2’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Gagaifomauga No. 3’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Vaisigano No. 1’: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Vaisigano No. 2’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Falealupo’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Alataua Sisifo’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Salega No. 1’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Salega No. 2’: 0.009999999999999995, ‘Palauli No. 1’: 0.01999999999999999, ‘Palauli No. 2’: 0.05999999999999997, “Satupa’itea”: 0.03999999999999998, ‘Palauli No. 3’: 0.009999999999999995}] Median Reasoning: EXTRACTED_PROBABILITIES: [4.0, 4.3, 3.5, 1.8, 1.6, 1.9, 1.8, 1.2, 0.9, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 2.5, 2.0, 0.8, 3.2, 0.8, 0.8, 8.5, 1.8, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 5.3, 1.4, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1.1, 3.5, 1.5, 6.5, 1.2, 6.0, 1.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, 8.0, 6.5, 1.0]
Model’s Answer: The most useful evidence here is the Samoa Ministry of Health’s own dengue sitreps, especially Issues 58 and 59, because they use the exact resolution metric: weekly new cases by named constituency/district. Those reports show two things at once. First, the outbreak is still clearly active in late May/early June 2026. Second, the weekly leader is volatile: EW22 was led by Palauli No. 2 with 11 new cases, EW21 by Safata No. 1 with 12, and earlier weeks reportedly rotated through Gagaifomauga No. 2, Vaisigano No. 1, Satupa’itea, Anoama’a No. 1, and Vaimauga constituencies. That means the best forecast is not to chase only the current leader, but to weight a cluster of recently recurring contenders.
A key nuance is that Upolu dominates national cases overall, often around 90% of cases, but that does not automatically imply the top single constituency must be on Upolu in a given week. The sitreps suggest cases on Upolu are often spread across many constituencies, while a localized Savai’i cluster can still top the leaderboard with only ~8–12 cases. So I put substantial probability on recent Savai’i leaders like Palauli No. 2, Satupa’itea, Gagaifomauga No. 2, and Vaisigano No. 1, while still keeping strong weight on Upolu contenders, especially Safata No. 1 and some urban/peri-urban constituencies.
The timing matters a lot. We are about five weeks from the likely latest report available by July 20. That is short enough that the current reporting format and broad geographic pattern are likely to persist, but long enough for several weekly lead changes. Also, weekly totals are now in the low hundreds nationally, and the leading constituency is often only ahead by a handful of cases. In that setting, stochastic variation is high: if the top constituency is typically around 7–12 cases, a difference of 1–3 cases can flip the weekly winner. That argues for a broad distribution and against any constituency getting an extreme probability.
I also modestly upweight some Vaimauga/Faleata options relative to their immediate recency because they are populous urban areas with strong structural dengue risk, and because tie situations—if they happen at the top—would favor larger-population constituencies under the resolution rules. But I do not make them the modal answers, because the recent official reports do not show persistent domination by a single Apia-area constituency.
The assumptions that matter most are:
Overall, my highest-probability answers are Safata No. 1 and Palauli No. 2, followed by Satupa’itea, Gagaifomauga No. 2, Vaisigano No. 1, Anoama’a No. 1, and the stronger Vaimauga constituencies. But uncertainty is real and broad, so the distribution remains fairly spread out.
Vaimauga No. 1: 4.0 Vaimauga No. 2: 4.3 Vaimauga No. 3: 3.5 Vaimauga No. 4: 1.8 Faleata No. 1: 1.6 Faleata No. 2: 1.9 Faleata No. 3: 1.8 Faleata No. 4: 1.2 Sagaga No. 1: 0.9 Sagaga No. 2: 0.9 Sagaga No. 3: 0.8 Sagaga No. 4: 0.8 A’ana Alofi No. 1: 0.8 A’ana Alofi No. 2: 2.5 A’ana Alofi No. 3: 2.0 A’ana Alofi No. 4: 0.8 Aiga-i-le-Tai: 3.2 Falelatai & Samatau: 0.8 Lefaga and Falese’ela: 0.8 Safata No. 1: 8.5 Safata No. 2: 1.8 Si’umu: 0.7 Falealili No. 1: 0.7 Falealili No. 2: 0.6 Lotofaga: 0.5 Lepa: 0.5 Aleipata Itupa-i-luga: 0.4 Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo: 0.4 Va’a-o-Fonoti: 0.5 Anoama’a No. 1: 5.3 Anoama’a No. 2: 1.4 Fa’asalele’aga No. 1: 0.6 Fa’asalele’aga No. 2: 0.6 Fa’asalele’aga No. 3: 0.5 Fa’asalele’aga No. 4: 0.5 Fa’asalele’aga No. 5: 0.5 Gagaemauga No. 1: 1.1 Gagaemauga No. 2: 3.5 Gagaifomauga No. 1: 1.5 Gagaifomauga No. 2: 6.5 Gagaifomauga No. 3: 1.2 Vaisigano No. 1: 6.0 Vaisigano No. 2: 1.5 Falealupo: 0.5 Alataua Sisifo: 0.5 Salega No. 1: 1.1 Salega No. 2: 1.2 Palauli No. 1: 1.5 Palauli No. 2: 8.0 Satupa’itea: 6.5 Palauli No. 3: 1.0
Dengue is endemic in Samoa and the outbreak’s persistence makes short-term winners a function of localized clusters rather than uniform spread.
The country is divided into many small constituencies and the weekly top-table format amplifies single-week spikes into headline outcomes.
Palauli No. 2 currently sits as the narrow leader in the most recent weekly ranking, with Aiga-i-le-Tai and Safata No. 1 repeatedly near the top.
Upolu accounts for most island-wide incidence, but concentrated transmission on Savai’i can produce a solitary constituency leading the weekly counts.
A handful of late or unreported cases in the current-week returns is sufficient to reverse the narrow lead among the top three.
Targeted local events or rapid vector-control efforts are plausible inflection points that can suppress or amplify a constituency’s count within one reporting interval.
Public tables publish only leading groups and tied counts, leaving many constituencies’ values invisible and therefore raising ranking uncertainty.
Small constituency populations and reporting lags are the chief sensitivities, so the narrow Palauli No. 2 lead is fragile to modest case-report revisions.
Forecast: Safata No. 1 (11.2%)
As of Sunday, June 14, 2026, the latest official dengue situation report visible on Samoa’s Ministry of Health website is Issue 59 (epi-week 22, covering May 25–31, 2026), dated June 1, 2026. In that report, Palauli 2 is the current leader with 11 cases, ahead of Safata 1 with 8; the next cluster is Gagaemauga 2 and A’ana Alofi 1/2/3 on 7, then Aiga i le Tai on 6. That makes Palauli No. 2 my narrow favorite going into July 20. (health.gov.ws)
I put the most weight on the recent rotation of weekly leaders rather than on any single week. The immediately preceding official reports show Safata 1 leading week 21 with 12 cases, Gagaifomauga 2 leading week 20 with 9, Palauli 2 leading week 19 with 8, and Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo leading week 18 with 9; week 17 (shown as the prior week in Issue 55) had Safata 1 at 17. So the current regime looks concentrated in a relatively small set of southern Upolu / western Savai’i hotspots, with Safata 1 and Palauli 2 the clearest repeat contenders. (health.gov.ws)
I did not overfit to the last two weeks, because the top district has been volatile all year. Earlier 2026 leaders included Vaimauga 3, Faleata 2, Faleata 3, A’ana Alofi 4, Lefaga & Faleaseela, Aiga i le Tai, and Fa’asalele’aga 1/2, while March–April in particular saw repeated wins by Aiga i le Tai and A’ana Alofi 4. That history keeps meaningful probability on Aiga-i-le-Tai, A’ana Alofi No. 4, and several urban / northwest Upolu constituencies even though they are not the freshest leaders. (health.gov.ws)
I also used constituency population as a prior and as a tie-break proxy, because the resolution rules use 2021 census population if weekly case counts tie. Relevant census totals include Aiga i le Tai 5,880; Safata 1 4,109; Palauli 2 3,068; A’ana Alofi 4 5,615; Faleata 1 13,179; Faleata 2 11,180; and Vaimauga 3 10,868. Those larger urban seats are still live tail risks even if recent reports have tilted rural. (sbs.gov.ws)
A further reason to stay fairly diffuse is reporting noise: Issue 59 still had 10 completed sites and 1 pending, while some older reports were much less complete (for example, Issue 43 had only 2 completed and 9 pending). So I used an ensemble of recency-weighted leaders, recency-weighted top-5 counts, and a census-population prior, then normalized across the listed constituencies. Bottom line: Palauli No. 2 and Safata No. 1 are the two best bets; Aiga-i-le-Tai is the main alternative; after that the probability is spread across A’ana Alofi No. 4, Satupa’itea, Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo, Lefaga and Falese’ela, Gagaifomauga No. 2, and Gagaemauga No. 2. (health.gov.ws)
As of Sunday, June 14, 2026, the latest Samoa Ministry of Health dengue sitrep I could verify is Issue 59, covering epi-week 22 (May 25–31, 2026) and dated June 1, 2026; the MOH homepage was still surfacing Issue 59 as the latest dengue sitrep when crawled. Issue 59 reports 157 new cases nationwide, with Palauli 2 leading on 11 new cases and Safata 1 next on 8, while several other districts were clustered just behind on 7 or 6. The current reporting cadence also looks weekly (for example, issue 58 was dated May 25 for epi-week 21 and issue 59 was dated June 1 for epi-week 22), so the July 20, 2026 resolution point is roughly seven weekly updates away: enough time for hotspot rotation, but not enough time to ignore the recent geographic pattern. (health.gov.ws)
Recent leadership has been volatile. Using the current-week leader in each verified weekly sitrep and applying the market’s own population tie-break rule, the winners across weeks 17–22 were Safata 1, Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo, Palauli 2, Gagaifomauga 2, Safata 1, and Palauli 2; over weeks 10–16, Aiga-i-le-Tai and A’ana Alofi 4 appeared especially persistent near the top, with Aiga-i-le-Tai winning or tie-winning several weeks. This pattern argues against a single runaway favorite and in favor of a fairly broad set of south/west Upolu plus a few Savai’i constituencies. (health.gov.ws)
The nationwide weekly case total has also eased from the high-100s in March/early April toward the low/mid-100s in late April and May, even though transmission continues. Because the leaderboard is now often decided by counts in the high single digits or low teens, a lot of constituencies retain non-trivial win chances, and small local outbreaks can reshuffle the order within a week or two. (health.gov.ws)
I also looked at structural base rates. In July 2025, MOH said most cases were concentrated in Apia Urban Area and North West Upolu, particularly the Faleata districts, so I do not want to ignore the large urban constituencies entirely. But the 2026 weekly district tables since February have shifted the modal hotspot away from Faleata and toward Aiga-i-le-Tai, Safata 1, Lefaga and Falese’ela, A’ana Alofi 4, Palauli 2, Satupa’itea, and nearby districts. (health.gov.ws)
For tie-break sensitivity, the 2021 census populations are important: among the main contenders, Aiga-i-le-Tai (5,880), A’ana Alofi 4 (5,615), Anoama’a 1 (4,845), Lefaga and Falese’ela (4,488), Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo (4,426), Safata 1 (4,109), and Palauli 2 (3,068) are all large enough that ties sometimes help them, while very small constituencies need cleaner outright leads. (sbs.gov.ws)
My forecast blends: (1) six-week recency-weighted district counts, (2) a longer ten-week recency score, (3) top-5 persistence, (4) constituency population as a base-rate prior, and (5) recency-weighted weekly wins. That model makes Aiga-i-le-Tai the modal pick, but only narrowly over Safata 1 and Palauli 2. In other words, this is a wide-open board: the top three options together are only 24.0% of the total probability mass, and many mid-tier constituencies remain live.
As of Sunday, June 14, 2026, the latest official Samoa Ministry of Health dengue report I could verify is Issue No. 59, dated June 1, 2026 for epi-week 22 (May 25-31, 2026). That report recorded 157 new clinically diagnosed cases, 14 lab-confirmed cases, and listed Palauli 2 as the weekly leader with 11 cases, ahead of Safata 1 with 8. The MOH home page was still featuring Issue No. 59 as the latest dengue sitrep when last crawled, so Palauli No. 2 gets an extra bump from the possibility that no newer official report supersedes it before July 20. (health.gov.ws)
I put most weight on 2026 weekly leader rotation, because the question resolves on weekly new-case counts, not cumulative burden. From epi-week 5 through 22, the reported leader shifted repeatedly: Fa’asalele’aga No. 1, Faleata No. 2, Faleata No. 3, A’ana Alofi No. 4, Lefaga & Faleaseela, Aiga-i-le-Tai, Safata No. 1, Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo, Palauli No. 2, and Gagaifomauga No. 2 all had turns on top. Aiga-i-le-Tai led four observed weeks, A’ana Alofi No. 4 led three, and Safata No. 1 plus Palauli No. 2 led two each; that is a very volatile pattern, so the forecast should stay diffuse rather than concentrate on one district. (health.gov.ws)
I weighted recent weeks more heavily than early-2026 weeks. In the last five published MOH weekly tables I could verify, the weekly winners were Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo, Palauli 2, Gagaifomauga 2, Safata 1, and Palauli 2. Repeated recent top-5 appearances also keep Aiga-i-le-Tai, Satupa’itea, Lefaga and Falese’ela, Gagaemauga No. 2, and Vaisigano No. 1 in the mix even when they were not the weekly winner. (health.gov.ws)
I then blended that recency signal with a modest population prior from the Samoa 2021 census, which is also the source that would decide ties under the resolution rules. Table 1 of the census gives Faleata No. 1 (13,179) as the largest constituency, followed by Faleata No. 2 (11,180), Vaimauga No. 3 (10,868), and Vaimauga No. 1 (8,736), while other current contenders such as Aiga-i-le-Tai (5,880), A’ana Alofi No. 4 (5,615), Anoama’a No. 2 (5,240), Safata No. 1 (4,109), and Palauli No. 2 (3,068) are smaller but still substantial. (sbs.gov.ws)
I also gave a small residual boost to the urban Faleata seats because the July 2025 MOH reports said the majority of cases were in the Apia Urban Area and North West Upolu, specifically noting that 31-32% of all cases resided in the Faleata districts. But I kept that boost modest, because the 2026 weekly leader tables since February have usually pointed elsewhere. (health.gov.ws)
Bottom line: Palauli No. 2 is my plurality favorite because it is both the current verified leader and one of the few districts with clear recent winning form, but only at 16.3%. Safata No. 1 and Aiga-i-le-Tai are close behind, and A’ana Alofi No. 4 remains live because of its strong spring run. The low top probability reflects how small the weekly leading counts have been and how often the leading constituency has changed.
I treated this as a forecast over the listed constituencies, while noting there is a small outside resolution risk of “Ambiguous” under the rules. The Ministry of Health has been issuing these dengue situation reports regularly: for example, Issue 42 was dated 3 February 2026 and Issue 59 was dated 1 June 2026, so the base case is that another official report will exist by 20 July 2026. The latest report I found, Issue 59 for epi-week 22 (25–31 May 2026), still shows active transmission with 157 new cases nationally; its top districts were Palauli 2 (11), Safata 1 (8), and then Gagaemauga 2 plus A’ana Alofi 1/2/3 at 7, with Aiga-i-le-Tai also at 6. (health.gov.ws)
Recent leadership has been very fragmented, which is the main reason my distribution is wide rather than concentrated. In Issue 58 (epi-week 21), Safata 1 led with 12 cases; in Issue 57 (week 20), Gagaifomauga 2 led with 9; in Issue 56 (week 19), Palauli 2 led with 8; and in Issue 55 (week 18), Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo led with 9. Those are small margins, so a swing of only a few cases can change the winner by July. (health.gov.ws)
Looking slightly further back, Aiga-i-le-Tai and A’ana Alofi No. 4 have been the most persistent high-end leaders in 2026. Issue 49 (week 12) had Aiga-i-le-Tai at 20 and A’ana Alofi 4 at 18; Issue 50 (week 13) again had Aiga-i-le-Tai at 20; Issue 52’s prior-week comparison shows A’ana Alofi 4 spiking to 26 in week 14; and Issue 53 (week 16) still had Aiga-i-le-Tai leading at 11. Late 2025 also showed that leadership could shift back to districts such as Anoama’a 1, Anoama’a 2, A’ana Alofi 4, and Palauli 2, so I did not overfit only the last one or two reports. (health.gov.ws)
I also added a modest seasonal/structural prior toward the big urban constituencies. In the official report for the analogous July window in 2025 (Issue 14, covering 14–20 July 2025), MOH said most cases were concentrated in the Apia Urban Area and North West Upolu, particularly in the Faleata districts, where 32% of cases resided. The 2021 census shows that Faleata 1 (13,179), Faleata 2 (11,180), and Vaimauga 3 (10,868) are among Samoa’s largest constituencies, while still-recent hotspots like Aiga-i-le-Tai (5,880), Safata 1 (4,109), and Palauli 2 (3,068) are materially smaller; population matters both as a size base rate and because the question’s tie-break uses population. (health.gov.ws)
My quantitative blend therefore used: (1) exponentially weighted recent district leaders from the MOH 2026 reports, (2) a longer-run 2025-26 hotspot memory, (3) census population for baseline size and tie-breaks, and (4) a small July urban prior. Because Samoa’s dry season runs from May to October, I expect the July report to remain in the lower, noisier count regime rather than returning to the giant spikes seen in mid-2025; that keeps the top option below 15% and leaves substantial probability mass across many districts. On balance, Aiga-i-le-Tai is the single best pick because it has repeatedly led across March-May 2026 and was still near the top in the latest report, but A’ana Alofi No. 4 and Safata No. 1 are close behind, with a second tier of Faleata 1/2/3, Palauli 2, Lefaga and Falese’ela, Satupa’itea, Vaimauga 3, and A’ana Alofi No. 3 all live. (samoa.travel)
As of Sunday, June 14, 2026, the latest Ministry of Health item visible on the MOH website is Dengue SitRep Issue No. 59, dated June 1, 2026, covering Epi-week 22 (May 25-31). In that report Samoa recorded 157 new cases, and the top district was Palauli 2 with 11 cases; the immediately prior report (Issue 58, Epi-week 21) had 167 new cases and Safata 1 leading with 12 cases. (health.gov.ws)
I put most weight on the recent official MOH reports, but I did not use them mechanically because the leader has been quite volatile. Over the last several months, the weekly leader moved from Vaimauga 3 (weeks 3-4), to Fa’asalele’aga 1 (week 5), Faleata 2 (week 6), Faleata 3 (week 7), A’ana Alofi 4 (weeks 8, 11, 14, 15), Aiga-i-le-Tai (weeks 10, 12, 13, 16), Safata 1 (weeks 17, 21), Aleipata Itupa-i-lalo (week 18), Palauli 2 (weeks 19, 22), and Gagaifomauga 2 (week 20). That pattern argues strongly against overconfidence in any single constituency five weeks ahead. (health.gov.ws)
Still, some constituencies have been persistently near the top even when they were not the outright leader. Aiga-i-le-Tai was the leader four times in the available run and remained in the top group in weeks 17-22; Safata 1 led twice recently and was runner-up in the latest report; Palauli 2 led two of the last four available weeks; A’ana Alofi No. 4 dominated much of March and early April; and Lefaga and Falese’ela plus Satupa’itea keep reappearing in the top five. (health.gov.ws)
I also adjusted for tie-break risk using the 2021 census populations. Among the more plausible contenders, Aiga-i-le-Tai (5,880) and A’ana Alofi No. 4 (5,615) are relatively large, while Safata No. 1 (4,109), Lefaga and Falese’ela (4,488), and Palauli No. 2 (3,068) are smaller; that gives Aiga-i-le-Tai and A’ana Alofi No. 4 a modest extra boost in any equal-count scenario. The census also shows that very large urban constituencies such as Faleata No. 1 (13,179), Faleata No. 2 (11,180), and Vaimauga No. 3 (10,868) deserve some residual probability even though they have not led recently. (sbs.gov.ws)
A further reason to stay fairly diffuse is data quality/completeness variation across sitreps. For example, Issue 43 noted only 2 completed reporting sites and 9 pending, while Issue 51 had 8 completed and 3 pending; by contrast, the more recent Issues 58-59 were based on 10 completed sites and 1 pending. That makes me trust the recent pattern more than the early-January pattern, but it also means sudden ranking changes can still reflect reporting noise. (health.gov.ws)
Seasonality slightly tempers the forecast. Samoa’s cool/dry season runs from May to October, so July is not the peak wet-season environment for mosquito transmission. In practice, though, the outbreak has clearly persisted into the dry season: late-May reports were still showing 157-167 new weekly cases, and the most recent reports said 92% of current cases were from Upolu even while the weekly top district still alternated between Upolu and Savai’i. So I give Upolu a moderate overall edge, but not an overwhelming one. (samet.gov.ws)
My quantitative forecast combined four ingredients: (1) recency-weighted top-five case counts from the available 2026 sitreps, with extra weight on the last four weeks; (2) recency-weighted outright-winner frequency; (3) constituency population as a prior for tie-breaks and for low-case weeks; and (4) a broad uncertainty spread because leadership has rotated so often. That produces Aiga-i-le-Tai as the single most likely answer, but only narrowly ahead of Safata No. 1 and Palauli No. 2. The forecast is intentionally spread out because the historical record does not support a dominant favorite. (health.gov.ws)