Bot similarity — Mantic series-1

← all questions · leaderboard if → · personalities → · Pairwise similarity = 1 − mean total-variation distance across questions both bots forecasted · Generated 2026-07-21 15:40:19Z
^* not included in question disagreement metric.

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.776	0.859 (186)	0.224	11	195
laertes	0.771	0.858 (413)	0.229	11	433
hayek-bot	0.764	0.845 (387)	0.236	11	404
smingers-bot	0.760	0.842 (424)	0.240	11	447
Mantic	0.755	0.830 (450)	0.245	11	474
cassi	0.755	0.842 (411)	0.245	11	429
SynapseSeer	0.745	0.809 (462)	0.255	11	486
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.740	0.808 (196)	0.260	11	215
Panshul42	0.732	0.800 (439)	0.268	11	462
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.721	0.782 (458)	0.279	11	482
pgodzinbot	0.716	0.789 (392)	0.284	11	415
preseen	0.708	0.771 (325)	0.292	11	339

Mean similarity to bots — close to other bots in the cohort. Similarity to community — close to Mantic's recency-weighted community aggregate (binary excluded; no aggregate stored). Comparing the two columns separates "consensus follower" (high on both) from "independent thinker" (lower on both) and "anchor candidate" (closer to community than to bots).

Top single-question disagreements

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?	date	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.990
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.989
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	laertes	pgodzinbot	0.988
#527 — Which trading day between 7/1/2026 and 8/7/2026 will record the highest settlement price for ICE NY Cocoa September 2026 (CCU26) futures?	date	SynapseSeer	pgodzinbot	0.986
#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	preseen	0.983
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	cassi	preseen	0.982
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	cassi	laertes	0.982
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.981
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	AtlasForecasting-bot	pgodzinbot	0.981
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.979
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	preseen	smingers-bot	0.979
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.974
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	AtlasForecasting-bot	cassi	0.973
#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100	date	SynapseSeer	pgodzinbot	0.972
#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100	date	SynapseSeer	preseen	0.972

Most-outlier bot per question

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	0.925	9
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	cassi	0.908	10
#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?	date	pgodzinbot	0.898	9
#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100	date	preseen	0.894	9
#527 — Which trading day between 7/1/2026 and 8/7/2026 will record the highest settlement price for ICE NY Cocoa September 2026 (CCU26) futures?	date	pgodzinbot	0.888	8
#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.883	7
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	preseen	0.864	9
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	smingers-bot	0.862	8
#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.858	8
#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?	date	pgodzinbot	0.857	9
#607 — On what date will the Department of War's daily contract announcements first include a contract action referencing the Tomahawk missile, between 7/18/2026 and 8/10/2026?	date	SynapseSeer	0.856	8
#620 — What will be the combined subscribers of all MrBeast channels on July 19th.	numeric	pgodzinbot	0.835	8
#604 — On what date will The Guardian next publish a five-star review of a theatre production staged in the United Kingdom?	date	pgodzinbot	0.829	9
#112 — What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026?	numeric	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.817	10
#419 — Which day between June 4 and August 12, 2026, will see the highest US airline passenger volume?	date	pgodzinbot	0.808	9
#475 — When will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a decision in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?	date	pgodzinbot	0.802	9
#505 — On what reported date will the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bullish percentage next reach or exceed 37%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.791	8
#330 — What will Donald Trump's YouGov approval rating be on August 12, 2026?	numeric	preseen	0.770	10
#358 — On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.769	10
#468 — What will be the highest number of new dengue-like illness cases reported in Tonga on a single day before August 12, 2026?	discrete	preseen	0.769	9

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.803	0.878 (70)	0.197	10	70
laertes	0.781	0.861 (171)	0.219	10	171
hayek-bot	0.789	0.871 (168)	0.211	10	168
smingers-bot	0.777	0.856 (169)	0.223	10	169
Mantic	0.770	0.841 (177)	0.231	10	177
cassi	0.765	0.847 (135)	0.235	10	135
SynapseSeer	0.711	0.762 (183)	0.289	10	183
AtlasForecasting-bot	—	—	—	0	0
Panshul42	0.777	0.846 (179)	0.223	10	179
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.748	0.801 (185)	0.252	10	185
pgodzinbot	0.691	0.763 (160)	0.309	10	160
preseen	0.689	0.749 (141)	0.311	10	141

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.803

0.878 (70)

0.197

laertes

0.781

0.861 (171)

0.219

171

hayek-bot

0.789

0.871 (168)

0.211

168

smingers-bot

0.777

0.856 (169)

0.223

169

Mantic

0.770

0.841 (177)

0.231

177

cassi

0.765

0.847 (135)

0.235

135

SynapseSeer

0.711

0.762 (183)

0.289

183

AtlasForecasting-bot

—

Panshul42

0.777

0.846 (179)

0.223

179

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.748

0.801 (185)

0.252

185

pgodzinbot

0.691

0.763 (160)

0.309

160

preseen

0.689

0.749 (141)

0.311

141

Question

Type

Distance

#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.990

#527 — Which trading day between 7/1/2026 and 8/7/2026 will record the highest settlement price for ICE NY Cocoa September 2026 (CCU26) futures?

date

SynapseSeer

pgodzinbot

0.986

#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

preseen

0.983

#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

date

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.981

#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100

date

SynapseSeer

pgodzinbot

0.972

#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100

date

SynapseSeer

preseen

0.972

#475 — When will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a decision in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?

date

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.966

#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100

date

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.961

#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?

date

laertes

pgodzinbot

0.959

#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

smingers-bot

0.957

#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100

date

laertes

pgodzinbot

0.956

#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

date

SynapseSeer

pgodzinbot

0.956

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

SynapseSeer

pgodzinbot

0.951

#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?

date

hayek-bot

pgodzinbot

0.948

#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?

date

laertes

preseen

0.941

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?	date	pgodzinbot	0.898	9
#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100	date	preseen	0.894	9
#527 — Which trading day between 7/1/2026 and 8/7/2026 will record the highest settlement price for ICE NY Cocoa September 2026 (CCU26) futures?	date	pgodzinbot	0.888	8
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	preseen	0.864	9
#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.858	8
#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?	date	pgodzinbot	0.857	9
#607 — On what date will the Department of War's daily contract announcements first include a contract action referencing the Tomahawk missile, between 7/18/2026 and 8/10/2026?	date	SynapseSeer	0.856	8
#604 — On what date will The Guardian next publish a five-star review of a theatre production staged in the United Kingdom?	date	pgodzinbot	0.829	9
#419 — Which day between June 4 and August 12, 2026, will see the highest US airline passenger volume?	date	pgodzinbot	0.808	9
#475 — When will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a decision in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?	date	pgodzinbot	0.802	9
#505 — On what reported date will the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bullish percentage next reach or exceed 37%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.791	8
#358 — On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.769	10
#540 — When will H.R. 6644, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, become law?	date	pgodzinbot	0.760	9
#579 — On what date will Donald Trump next publish a Truth Social post about Mexico containing an adversarial keyword?	date	pgodzinbot	0.747	9
#601 — On what date will the benchmark UK 30-year gilt yield first close at or outside the range 5.35%–5.72%?	date	pgodzinbot	0.746	9
#385 — On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.707	9
#575 — On what date will the EIA first report Total Lower-48 working gas in underground storage at or above 3,150 Bcf?	date	pgodzinbot	0.686	8
#394 — On what observation date will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll first report Pauline Hanson's One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.672	9
#210 — When will the US and Cuba have a diplomatic meeting?	date	SynapseSeer	0.666	9
#590 — On what date will Andon Market’s public trailing-30-day revenue next exceed its public trailing-30-day token cost?	date	preseen	0.660	9

Question

Type

Outlier bot

Mean distance

# peers

#501 — On what date will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reach its highest value between June 18 and August 8, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

0.898

#605 — Earliest 'Data da publicação' (July 15–Aug 10, 2026) for which Portugal’s Portal BASE cumulative contract count reaches 1,100

date

preseen

0.894

#527 — Which trading day between 7/1/2026 and 8/7/2026 will record the highest settlement price for ICE NY Cocoa September 2026 (CCU26) futures?

date

pgodzinbot

0.888

#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

date

preseen

0.864

#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.858

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

0.857

#607 — On what date will the Department of War's daily contract announcements first include a contract action referencing the Tomahawk missile, between 7/18/2026 and 8/10/2026?

date

SynapseSeer

0.856

#604 — On what date will The Guardian next publish a five-star review of a theatre production staged in the United Kingdom?

date

pgodzinbot

0.829

#419 — Which day between June 4 and August 12, 2026, will see the highest US airline passenger volume?

date

pgodzinbot

0.808

#475 — When will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a decision in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell?

date

pgodzinbot

0.802

#505 — On what reported date will the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bullish percentage next reach or exceed 37%?

date

SynapseSeer

0.791

#358 — On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%?

date

SynapseSeer

0.769

#540 — When will H.R. 6644, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, become law?

date

pgodzinbot

0.760

#579 — On what date will Donald Trump next publish a Truth Social post about Mexico containing an adversarial keyword?

date

pgodzinbot

0.747

#601 — On what date will the benchmark UK 30-year gilt yield first close at or outside the range 5.35%–5.72%?

date

pgodzinbot

0.746

#385 — On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.707

#575 — On what date will the EIA first report Total Lower-48 working gas in underground storage at or above 3,150 Bcf?

date

pgodzinbot

0.686

#394 — On what observation date will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll first report Pauline Hanson's One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0%?

date

SynapseSeer

0.672

#210 — When will the US and Cuba have a diplomatic meeting?

date

SynapseSeer

0.666

#590 — On what date will Andon Market’s public trailing-30-day revenue next exceed its public trailing-30-day token cost?

date

preseen

0.660

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.751	0.834 (60)	0.249	11	60
laertes	0.767	0.862 (143)	0.233	11	143
hayek-bot	0.741	0.817 (127)	0.260	11	127
smingers-bot	0.747	0.832 (151)	0.253	11	151
Mantic	0.751	0.830 (161)	0.249	11	161
cassi	0.754	0.842 (165)	0.246	11	165
SynapseSeer	0.760	0.843 (166)	0.240	11	166
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.737	0.810 (111)	0.263	11	111
Panshul42	0.664	0.738 (152)	0.336	11	152
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.692	0.760 (160)	0.308	11	160
pgodzinbot	0.726	0.808 (129)	0.274	11	129
preseen	0.722	0.799 (105)	0.278	11	106

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.751

0.834 (60)

0.249

laertes

0.767

0.862 (143)

0.233

143

hayek-bot

0.741

0.817 (127)

0.260

127

smingers-bot

0.747

0.832 (151)

0.253

151

Mantic

0.751

0.830 (161)

0.249

161

cassi

0.754

0.842 (165)

0.246

165

SynapseSeer

0.760

0.843 (166)

0.240

166

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.737

0.810 (111)

0.263

111

Panshul42

0.664

0.738 (152)

0.336

152

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.692

0.760 (160)

0.308

160

pgodzinbot

0.726

0.808 (129)

0.274

129

preseen

0.722

0.799 (105)

0.278

106

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	preseen	smingers-bot	0.979
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	Panshul42	smingers-bot	0.951
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	preseen	0.941
#328 — How many candidate lists will the Central Election Commission of BiH certify for the 2026 general election by August 5?	discrete	Panshul42	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.940
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.920
#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.917
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	smingers-bot	0.913
#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?	discrete	AtlasForecasting-bot	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.913
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	preseen	0.907
#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?	discrete	Panshul42	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.898
#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?	discrete	Mantic	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.886
#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th	discrete	preseen	smingers-bot	0.886
#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?	discrete	SynapseSeer	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.874
#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?	discrete	laertes	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.873
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	smingers-bot	0.873

Question

Type

Distance

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

preseen

smingers-bot

0.979

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

Panshul42

smingers-bot

0.951

#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026

discrete

Panshul42

preseen

0.941

#328 — How many candidate lists will the Central Election Commission of BiH certify for the 2026 general election by August 5?

discrete

Panshul42

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.940

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

pgodzinbot

smingers-bot

0.920

#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.917

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

smingers-bot

0.913

#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?

discrete

AtlasForecasting-bot

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.913

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

preseen

0.907

#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?

discrete

Panshul42

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.898

#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?

discrete

Mantic

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.886

#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th

discrete

preseen

smingers-bot

0.886

#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?

discrete

SynapseSeer

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.874

#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?

discrete

laertes

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.873

#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026

discrete

Panshul42

smingers-bot

0.873

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.883	7
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	smingers-bot	0.862	8
#468 — What will be the highest number of new dengue-like illness cases reported in Tonga on a single day before August 12, 2026?	discrete	preseen	0.769	9
#538 — How many distinct NIH-funded projects in NIH RePORTER will have a "Project Start Date" from 28 June 2026 through 11 August 2026, inclusive?	discrete	preseen	0.762	8
#534 — Will the concept of a laffer curve get more popular appeal in economists by August 12th?	discrete	Panshul42	0.760	9
#82 — What will euro area GDP growth be, q/q, in Eurostat’s flash estimate for 2026 Q2?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.757	9
#102 — How many signatories will PRI list on August 12, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.755	9
#127 — How many countries will newly restrict Polymarket by August 1, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.746	8
#600 — By how many CDR-SB points will low-dose diranersen slow clinical decline versus placebo at Week 76 in the Phase 2 CELIA trial?	discrete	Panshul42	0.741	9
#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.738	5
#179 — What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026?	discrete	smingers-bot	0.737	9
#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th	discrete	preseen	0.723	11
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	0.711	9
#71 — What global Q2 2026 sales will Eli Lilly report for Foundayo (orforglipron)?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.708	7
#393 — How many school shooting incidents with at least one victim killed will be recorded in the U.S. West between May 25 and August 1, 2026?	discrete	Panshul42	0.701	9
#77 — What hazard ratio will Novartis first report for the primary endpoint in the Lp(a) HORIZON clinical trial?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.700	7
#96 — How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map.	discrete	tom_futuresearch_bot	0.689	7
#535 — How many "Foreign Military Sales" (FMS) congressional notifications will be published between July 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026?	discrete	hayek-bot	0.677	10
#412 — In how many countries will Starlink be available on July 4th?	discrete	cassi	0.673	10
#226 — What will Ornn’s H100 SXM compute price index be at 4:00pm New York time on 31 July 2026?	discrete	SynapseSeer	0.669	10

Question

Type

Outlier bot

Mean distance

# peers

#556 — What will the IMF project as the 2027 Real GDP Growth Rate for the Middle East and Central Asia in its next World Economic Outlook Update?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.883

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

smingers-bot

0.862

#468 — What will be the highest number of new dengue-like illness cases reported in Tonga on a single day before August 12, 2026?

discrete

preseen

0.769

#538 — How many distinct NIH-funded projects in NIH RePORTER will have a "Project Start Date" from 28 June 2026 through 11 August 2026, inclusive?

discrete

preseen

0.762

#534 — Will the concept of a laffer curve get more popular appeal in economists by August 12th?

discrete

Panshul42

0.760

#82 — What will euro area GDP growth be, q/q, in Eurostat’s flash estimate for 2026 Q2?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.757

#102 — How many signatories will PRI list on August 12, 2026?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.755

#127 — How many countries will newly restrict Polymarket by August 1, 2026?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.746

#600 — By how many CDR-SB points will low-dose diranersen slow clinical decline versus placebo at Week 76 in the Phase 2 CELIA trial?

discrete

Panshul42

0.741

#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.738

#179 — What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026?

discrete

smingers-bot

0.737

#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th

discrete

preseen

0.723

#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026

discrete

Panshul42

0.711

#71 — What global Q2 2026 sales will Eli Lilly report for Foundayo (orforglipron)?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.708

#393 — How many school shooting incidents with at least one victim killed will be recorded in the U.S. West between May 25 and August 1, 2026?

discrete

Panshul42

0.701

#77 — What hazard ratio will Novartis first report for the primary endpoint in the Lp(a) HORIZON clinical trial?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.700

#96 — How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map.

discrete

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.689

#535 — How many "Foreign Military Sales" (FMS) congressional notifications will be published between July 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026?

discrete

hayek-bot

0.677

#412 — In how many countries will Starlink be available on July 4th?

discrete

cassi

0.673

#226 — What will Ornn’s H100 SXM compute price index be at 4:00pm New York time on 31 July 2026?

discrete

SynapseSeer

0.669

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.814	—	0.186	11	9
laertes	0.786	—	0.214	11	20
hayek-bot	0.769	—	0.231	11	17
smingers-bot	0.785	—	0.215	11	23
Mantic	0.772	—	0.228	11	24
cassi	0.747	—	0.253	11	18
SynapseSeer	0.804	—	0.197	11	24
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.796	—	0.205	11	19
Panshul42	0.789	—	0.211	11	23
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.769	—	0.231	11	24
pgodzinbot	0.777	—	0.223	11	23
preseen	0.791	—	0.209	11	13

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.814

—

0.186

laertes

0.786

—

0.214

hayek-bot

0.769

—

0.231

smingers-bot

0.785

—

0.215

Mantic

0.772

—

0.228

cassi

0.747

—

0.253

SynapseSeer

0.804

—

0.197

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.796

—

0.205

Panshul42

0.789

—

0.211

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.769

—

0.231

pgodzinbot

0.777

—

0.223

preseen

0.791

—

0.209

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	Panshul42	0.925
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	SynapseSeer	0.902
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.863
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	SynapseSeer	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.847
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	pgodzinbot	0.812
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	Mantic	0.765
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	pgodzinbot	0.757
#602 — Which U.S. state will have the most HPAI poultry-flock outbreaks between June 16 and August 9, 2026?	multiple_choice	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.686
#602 — Which U.S. state will have the most HPAI poultry-flock outbreaks between June 16 and August 9, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	pgodzinbot	0.682
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.660
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	smingers-bot	0.641
#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	Panshul42	0.634
#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	laertes	0.622
#472 — Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026?	multiple_choice	hayek-bot	laertes	0.612
#472 — Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026?	multiple_choice	cassi	laertes	0.606

Question

Type

Distance

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

Panshul42

0.925

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

SynapseSeer

0.902

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.863

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

SynapseSeer

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.847

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

pgodzinbot

0.812

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

Mantic

0.765

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

pgodzinbot

0.757

#602 — Which U.S. state will have the most HPAI poultry-flock outbreaks between June 16 and August 9, 2026?

multiple_choice

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.686

#602 — Which U.S. state will have the most HPAI poultry-flock outbreaks between June 16 and August 9, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

pgodzinbot

0.682

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.660

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

smingers-bot

0.641

#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

Panshul42

0.634

#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

laertes

0.622

#472 — Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026?

multiple_choice

hayek-bot

laertes

0.612

#472 — Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026?

multiple_choice

cassi

laertes

0.606

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	0.661	7
#602 — Which U.S. state will have the most HPAI poultry-flock outbreaks between June 16 and August 9, 2026?	multiple_choice	preseen	0.551	7
#472 — Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026?	multiple_choice	hayek-bot	0.519	10
#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	0.454	10
#240 — Which EO 14399-related provision or implementation action will a federal court first restrict?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	0.414	9
#573 — Among {VIC, SA, TAS, NSW, QLD, None}, in which NEM region does AEMO issue the first actual (non-forecast) LOR2-or-higher reserve notice on or after 00:00 AEST 2 July 2026?	multiple_choice	cassi	0.395	10
#331 — What will be the single largest cause of deaths inflicted by the Tatmadaw (Sit Tat) from 1 June 2026 to 31 July 2026?	multiple_choice	cassi	0.379	8
#262 — Which action related to the Anti-Weaponization Fund will happen first?	multiple_choice	hayek-bot	0.370	11
#518 — Who will be the highest ranking member of the Starmer 2026 Cabinet to retain their role in the next Cabinet?	multiple_choice	preseen	0.341	7
#260 — What will be the first Hungary EU-funds restoration step before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	0.327	5
#129 — Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%?	multiple_choice	SynapseSeer	0.319	10
#479 — Which individual will record the largest increase in implied probability in Sportsbet's "To Run as a One Nation Candidate at the Next Federal Election" market between 15 June 2026 and 11 August 2026?	multiple_choice	cassi	0.299	9
#120 — Which company has the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	multiple_choice	hayek-bot	0.283	9
#354 — What legal rationale will control the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. Cook?	multiple_choice	smingers-bot	0.277	7
#221 — Which EU Member State will have the largest increase in its Innovation Index score between 2025 and 2026, as reported in the European Innovation Scoreboard 2026?	multiple_choice	smingers-bot	0.275	7
#74 — What will Biogen’s first public top-line statement about the Phase 2 CELIA trial be by August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	laertes	0.221	7
#124 — Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	0.221	9
#178 — Which organization will have created the leading model on the METR 80% time horizon leaderboard on August 10, 2026?	multiple_choice	smingers-bot	0.204	11
#80 — Which pair of candidates will advance from the June 2, 2026 California gubernatorial primary to the general election ballot on November 3, 2026?	multiple_choice	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.198	7
#114 — Who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana on May 16, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	0.194	10

Question

Type

Outlier bot

Mean distance

# peers

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.661

#602 — Which U.S. state will have the most HPAI poultry-flock outbreaks between June 16 and August 9, 2026?

multiple_choice

preseen

0.551

#472 — Which constituency will report the most dengue fever cases in Samoa in the latest official report available on July 20, 2026?

multiple_choice

hayek-bot

0.519

#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

0.454

#240 — Which EO 14399-related provision or implementation action will a federal court first restrict?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

0.414

#573 — Among {VIC, SA, TAS, NSW, QLD, None}, in which NEM region does AEMO issue the first actual (non-forecast) LOR2-or-higher reserve notice on or after 00:00 AEST 2 July 2026?

multiple_choice

cassi

0.395

#331 — What will be the single largest cause of deaths inflicted by the Tatmadaw (Sit Tat) from 1 June 2026 to 31 July 2026?

multiple_choice

cassi

0.379

#262 — Which action related to the Anti-Weaponization Fund will happen first?

multiple_choice

hayek-bot

0.370

#518 — Who will be the highest ranking member of the Starmer 2026 Cabinet to retain their role in the next Cabinet?

multiple_choice

preseen

0.341

#260 — What will be the first Hungary EU-funds restoration step before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

0.327

#129 — Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%?

multiple_choice

SynapseSeer

0.319

#479 — Which individual will record the largest increase in implied probability in Sportsbet's "To Run as a One Nation Candidate at the Next Federal Election" market between 15 June 2026 and 11 August 2026?

multiple_choice

cassi

0.299

#120 — Which company has the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

multiple_choice

hayek-bot

0.283

#354 — What legal rationale will control the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. Cook?

multiple_choice

smingers-bot

0.277

#221 — Which EU Member State will have the largest increase in its Innovation Index score between 2025 and 2026, as reported in the European Innovation Scoreboard 2026?

multiple_choice

smingers-bot

0.275

#74 — What will Biogen’s first public top-line statement about the Phase 2 CELIA trial be by August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

laertes

0.221

#124 — Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.221

#178 — Which organization will have created the leading model on the METR 80% time horizon leaderboard on August 10, 2026?

multiple_choice

smingers-bot

0.204

#80 — Which pair of candidates will advance from the June 2, 2026 California gubernatorial primary to the general election ballot on November 3, 2026?

multiple_choice

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.198

#114 — Who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana on May 16, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

0.194

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.770	0.861 (56)	0.230	11	56
laertes	0.760	0.849 (99)	0.240	11	99
hayek-bot	0.758	0.835 (92)	0.242	11	92
smingers-bot	0.750	0.831 (104)	0.250	11	104
Mantic	0.739	0.812 (112)	0.261	11	112
cassi	0.752	0.837 (111)	0.249	11	111
SynapseSeer	0.760	0.836 (113)	0.240	11	113
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.733	0.805 (85)	0.267	11	85
Panshul42	0.744	0.811 (108)	0.256	11	108
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.714	0.780 (113)	0.286	11	113
pgodzinbot	0.727	0.805 (103)	0.273	11	103
preseen	0.701	0.773 (79)	0.300	11	79

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.770

0.861 (56)

0.230

laertes

0.760

0.849 (99)

0.240

hayek-bot

0.758

0.835 (92)

0.242

smingers-bot

0.750

0.831 (104)

0.250

104

Mantic

0.739

0.812 (112)

0.261

112

cassi

0.752

0.837 (111)

0.249

111

SynapseSeer

0.760

0.836 (113)

0.240

113

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.733

0.805 (85)

0.267

Panshul42

0.744

0.811 (108)

0.256

108

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.714

0.780 (113)

0.286

113

pgodzinbot

0.727

0.805 (103)

0.273

103

preseen

0.701

0.773 (79)

0.300

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.989
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	laertes	pgodzinbot	0.988
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	cassi	preseen	0.982
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	cassi	laertes	0.982
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	AtlasForecasting-bot	pgodzinbot	0.981
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.979
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.974
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	AtlasForecasting-bot	cassi	0.973
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	cassi	smingers-bot	0.970
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	SynapseSeer	pgodzinbot	0.969
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	Panshul42	pgodzinbot	0.966
#620 — What will be the combined subscribers of all MrBeast channels on July 19th.	numeric	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.966
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	SynapseSeer	cassi	0.960
#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?	numeric	Panshul42	cassi	0.959
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.958

Question

Type

Distance

#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?

numeric

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.989

#537 — What will the Televisions CPI index level (CPI-U, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted) be for June 2026?

numeric

laertes

pgodzinbot