Bot similarity — Mantic series-1

← all questions · leaderboard if → · personalities → · Pairwise similarity = 1 − mean total-variation distance across questions both bots forecasted · Generated 2026-06-10 22:22:11Z
^* not included in question disagreement metric.

Per-bot consensus rank

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
laertes	0.777	0.862 (282)	0.223	11	297
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.776	0.859 (186)	0.224	11	195
hayek-bot	0.776	0.859 (259)	0.224	11	272
cassi	0.767	0.855 (269)	0.233	11	281
smingers-bot	0.765	0.844 (298)	0.235	11	316
SynapseSeer	0.757	0.825 (317)	0.243	11	335
Mantic	0.756	0.825 (309)	0.244	11	327
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.740	0.807 (131)	0.260	11	146
pgodzinbot	0.739	0.817 (282)	0.261	11	299
Panshul42	0.735	0.802 (297)	0.265	11	315
preseen	0.722	0.785 (192)	0.278	11	200
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.721	0.776 (313)	0.279	11	331

Mean similarity to bots — close to other bots in the cohort. Similarity to community — close to Mantic's recency-weighted community aggregate (binary excluded; no aggregate stored). Comparing the two columns separates "consensus follower" (high on both) from "independent thinker" (lower on both) and "anchor candidate" (closer to community than to bots).

Top single-question disagreements

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	preseen	0.983
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.981
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	preseen	smingers-bot	0.979
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.974
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.958
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	Mantic	pgodzinbot	0.957
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	SynapseSeer	pgodzinbot	0.956
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	laertes	pgodzinbot	0.956
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	Panshul42	smingers-bot	0.951
#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?	date	SynapseSeer	pgodzinbot	0.951
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	pgodzinbot	0.945
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	preseen	0.941
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	cassi	preseen	0.941
#328 — How many candidate lists will the Central Election Commission of BiH certify for the 2026 general election by August 5?	discrete	Panshul42	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.940
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	SynapseSeer	pgodzinbot	0.932

Most-outlier bot per question

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	0.925	9
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	preseen	0.864	9
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	smingers-bot	0.862	8
#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.858	8
#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?	date	pgodzinbot	0.857	9
#112 — What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026?	numeric	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.817	10
#419 — Which day between June 4 and August 12, 2026, will see the highest US airline passenger volume?	date	pgodzinbot	0.808	9
#330 — What will Donald Trump's YouGov approval rating be on August 12, 2026?	numeric	preseen	0.770	10
#358 — On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.769	10
#82 — What will euro area GDP growth be, q/q, in Eurostat’s flash estimate for 2026 Q2?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.757	9
#102 — How many signatories will PRI list on August 12, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.755	9
#403 — What will be the net change in Somalia's internally displaced persons (IDPs) count between April 30 and August 10, 2026?	numeric	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.747	9
#127 — How many countries will newly restrict Polymarket by August 1, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.746	8
#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.738	5
#179 — What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026?	discrete	smingers-bot	0.737	9
#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th	discrete	preseen	0.723	11
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	0.711	9
#71 — What global Q2 2026 sales will Eli Lilly report for Foundayo (orforglipron)?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.708	7
#385 — On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.707	9
#393 — How many school shooting incidents with at least one victim killed will be recorded in the U.S. West between May 25 and August 1, 2026?	discrete	Panshul42	0.701	9

No binary questions in the cohort.

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
laertes	0.798	0.871 (118)	0.203	10	118
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.803	0.878 (70)	0.197	10	70
hayek-bot	0.807	0.885 (111)	0.193	10	111
cassi	0.785	0.868 (76)	0.215	10	76
smingers-bot	0.792	0.864 (116)	0.208	10	116
SynapseSeer	0.744	0.800 (123)	0.256	10	123
Mantic	0.771	0.834 (119)	0.229	10	119
AtlasForecasting-bot	—	—	—	0	0
pgodzinbot	0.751	0.825 (109)	0.250	10	109
Panshul42	0.790	0.852 (119)	0.210	10	119
preseen	0.722	0.781 (83)	0.278	10	83
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.755	0.800 (125)	0.245	10	125

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

laertes

0.798

0.871 (118)

0.203

118

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.803

0.878 (70)

0.197

hayek-bot

0.807

0.885 (111)

0.193

111

cassi

0.785

0.868 (76)

0.215

smingers-bot

0.792

0.864 (116)

0.208

116

SynapseSeer

0.744

0.800 (123)

0.256

123

Mantic

0.771

0.834 (119)

0.229

119

AtlasForecasting-bot

—

pgodzinbot

0.751

0.825 (109)

0.250

109

Panshul42

0.790

0.852 (119)

0.210

119

preseen

0.722

0.781 (83)

0.278

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.755

0.800 (125)

0.245

125

Question

Type

Distance

#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

preseen

0.983

#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

date

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.981

#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

date

SynapseSeer

pgodzinbot

0.956

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

SynapseSeer

pgodzinbot

0.951

#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

date

cassi

preseen

0.941

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

smingers-bot

0.930

#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

preseen

smingers-bot

0.928

#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

SynapseSeer

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.928

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.913

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

hayek-bot

pgodzinbot

0.911

#358 — On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%?

date

SynapseSeer

preseen

0.911

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

Panshul42

pgodzinbot

0.910

#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

preseen

0.906

#210 — When will the US and Cuba have a diplomatic meeting?

date

SynapseSeer

pgodzinbot

0.906

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

SynapseSeer

cassi

0.905

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?	date	preseen	0.864	9
#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.858	8
#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?	date	pgodzinbot	0.857	9
#419 — Which day between June 4 and August 12, 2026, will see the highest US airline passenger volume?	date	pgodzinbot	0.808	9
#358 — On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.769	10
#385 — On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.707	9
#394 — On what observation date will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll first report Pauline Hanson's One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0%?	date	SynapseSeer	0.672	9
#210 — When will the US and Cuba have a diplomatic meeting?	date	SynapseSeer	0.666	9
#24 — When will the U.S. government announce they will receive monetary assistance from Elon Musk?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.623	4
#440 — When will the Manheim EV Index next be released with a value at or above 218.0?	date	pgodzinbot	0.620	7
#118 — When will U.S. initial unemployment claims reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?	date	Mantic	0.612	6
#276 — When will Supreme Court issue a constitutional merits decision on Trump’s birthright-citizenship order?	date	preseen	0.604	9
#316 — On what date will a significant religious crisis in the US be covered by news organizations.	date	tom_futuresearch_bot	0.603	10
#288 — On what date will the OECD AI Incidents Monitor first show at least 500 events classified as "AI incident" with incident dates of May 20, 2026 or later?	date	preseen	0.579	10
#386 — On what day will the #1 song on Spotify’s Global Weekly Top Songs chart next exceed 45 million streams?	date	Mantic	0.553	8
#272 — On what date will the U.S. EPA publish in the Federal Register its final rule completing the Clean Air Act Section 111 fossil-fuel power-plant rulemaking it proposed in June 2025?	date	preseen	0.541	10
#332 — On what observation date will U.S. seasonally-adjusted Initial Claims first exceed 225,000?	date	Panshul42	0.539	6
#319 — When will the first federal lawsuit challenging USCIS Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199 be filed?	date	pgodzinbot	0.535	10
#274 — When will the US government announce or formally notify an arms sale to Taiwan worth at least $14 billion?	date	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.532	8
#372 — On what date will the Baker Hughes U.S. total rig count first be reported at 545 or fewer?	date	Panshul42	0.521	9

Question

Type

Outlier bot

Mean distance

# peers

#410 — When will the Drewry World Container Index hit its maximum value during the period in question?

date

preseen

0.864

#281 — When will U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.858

#418 — When will the AAII net investor sentiment peak between June 4, 2026, and August 12, 2026?

date

pgodzinbot

0.857

#419 — Which day between June 4 and August 12, 2026, will see the highest US airline passenger volume?

date

pgodzinbot

0.808

#358 — On what day will U.S. hotel occupancy next exceed 71%?

date

SynapseSeer

0.769

#385 — On what assessment date will Drewry’s World Container Index next exceed $3,100 per 40-foot container?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.707

#394 — On what observation date will the weekly Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention poll first report Pauline Hanson's One Nation primary vote at or above 27.0%?

date

SynapseSeer

0.672

#210 — When will the US and Cuba have a diplomatic meeting?

date

SynapseSeer

0.666

#24 — When will the U.S. government announce they will receive monetary assistance from Elon Musk?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.623

#440 — When will the Manheim EV Index next be released with a value at or above 218.0?

date

pgodzinbot

0.620

#118 — When will U.S. initial unemployment claims reach their highest weekly level before August 12, 2026?

date

Mantic

0.612

#276 — When will Supreme Court issue a constitutional merits decision on Trump’s birthright-citizenship order?

date

preseen

0.604

#316 — On what date will a significant religious crisis in the US be covered by news organizations.

date

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.603

#288 — On what date will the OECD AI Incidents Monitor first show at least 500 events classified as "AI incident" with incident dates of May 20, 2026 or later?

date

preseen

0.579

#386 — On what day will the #1 song on Spotify’s Global Weekly Top Songs chart next exceed 45 million streams?

date

Mantic

0.553

#272 — On what date will the U.S. EPA publish in the Federal Register its final rule completing the Clean Air Act Section 111 fossil-fuel power-plant rulemaking it proposed in June 2025?

date

preseen

0.541

#332 — On what observation date will U.S. seasonally-adjusted Initial Claims first exceed 225,000?

date

Panshul42

0.539

#319 — When will the first federal lawsuit challenging USCIS Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199 be filed?

date

pgodzinbot

0.535

#274 — When will the US government announce or formally notify an arms sale to Taiwan worth at least $14 billion?

date

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.532

#372 — On what date will the Baker Hughes U.S. total rig count first be reported at 545 or fewer?

date

Panshul42

0.521

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
laertes	0.765	0.862 (94)	0.235	11	94
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.749	0.832 (61)	0.251	11	61
hayek-bot	0.745	0.828 (80)	0.255	11	80
cassi	0.756	0.850 (111)	0.244	11	111
smingers-bot	0.745	0.834 (104)	0.255	11	104
SynapseSeer	0.755	0.841 (111)	0.245	11	111
Mantic	0.748	0.827 (108)	0.252	11	108
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.734	0.805 (68)	0.266	11	68
pgodzinbot	0.721	0.805 (94)	0.279	11	94
Panshul42	0.648	0.722 (100)	0.352	11	100
preseen	0.723	0.804 (57)	0.277	11	58
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.681	0.746 (105)	0.319	11	105

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

laertes

0.765

0.862 (94)

0.235

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.749

0.832 (61)

0.251

hayek-bot

0.745

0.828 (80)

0.255

cassi

0.756

0.850 (111)

0.244

111

smingers-bot

0.745

0.834 (104)

0.255

104

SynapseSeer

0.755

0.841 (111)

0.245

111

Mantic

0.748

0.827 (108)

0.252

108

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.734

0.805 (68)

0.266

pgodzinbot

0.721

0.805 (94)

0.279

Panshul42

0.648

0.722 (100)

0.352

100

preseen

0.723

0.804 (57)

0.277

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.681

0.746 (105)

0.319

105

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	preseen	smingers-bot	0.979
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	Panshul42	smingers-bot	0.951
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	preseen	0.941
#328 — How many candidate lists will the Central Election Commission of BiH certify for the 2026 general election by August 5?	discrete	Panshul42	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.940
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.920
#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.917
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	smingers-bot	0.913
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	preseen	0.907
#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th	discrete	preseen	smingers-bot	0.886
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	smingers-bot	0.873
#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th	discrete	AtlasForecasting-bot	preseen	0.873
#179 — What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	smingers-bot	0.872
#131 — How many major oil infrastructure fires or explosions will be reported globally from May 1 to August 1, 2026?	discrete	Mantic	Panshul42	0.864
#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	preseen	0.862
#96 — How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map.	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	tom_futuresearch_bot	0.856

Question

Type

Distance

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

preseen

smingers-bot

0.979

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

Panshul42

smingers-bot

0.951

#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026

discrete

Panshul42

preseen

0.941

#328 — How many candidate lists will the Central Election Commission of BiH certify for the 2026 general election by August 5?

discrete

Panshul42

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.940

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

pgodzinbot

smingers-bot

0.920

#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.917

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

smingers-bot

0.913

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

preseen

0.907

#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th

discrete

preseen

smingers-bot

0.886

#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026

discrete

Panshul42

smingers-bot

0.873

#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th

discrete

AtlasForecasting-bot

preseen

0.873

#179 — What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

smingers-bot

0.872

#131 — How many major oil infrastructure fires or explosions will be reported globally from May 1 to August 1, 2026?

discrete

Mantic

Panshul42

0.864

#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

preseen

0.862

#96 — How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map.

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.856

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?	discrete	smingers-bot	0.862	8
#82 — What will euro area GDP growth be, q/q, in Eurostat’s flash estimate for 2026 Q2?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.757	9
#102 — How many signatories will PRI list on August 12, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.755	9
#127 — How many countries will newly restrict Polymarket by August 1, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.746	8
#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.738	5
#179 — What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026?	discrete	smingers-bot	0.737	9
#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th	discrete	preseen	0.723	11
#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026	discrete	Panshul42	0.711	9
#71 — What global Q2 2026 sales will Eli Lilly report for Foundayo (orforglipron)?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.708	7
#393 — How many school shooting incidents with at least one victim killed will be recorded in the U.S. West between May 25 and August 1, 2026?	discrete	Panshul42	0.701	9
#77 — What hazard ratio will Novartis first report for the primary endpoint in the Lp(a) HORIZON clinical trial?	discrete	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.700	7
#96 — How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map.	discrete	tom_futuresearch_bot	0.689	7
#412 — In how many countries will Starlink be available on July 4th?	discrete	cassi	0.673	10
#226 — What will Ornn’s H100 SXM compute price index be at 4:00pm New York time on 31 July 2026?	discrete	SynapseSeer	0.669	10
#32 — How many United States ships will Iran successfully attack in the Strait of Hormuz before August 12, 2026?	discrete	pgodzinbot	0.663	8
#113 — What will be the lower bound of the FOMC’s fed funds target range following its June 16–17, 2026 meeting?	discrete	pgodzinbot	0.656	10
#320 — How many research papers in total mentioning AI P(doom) will be available via search on August 12th?	discrete	Panshul42	0.638	7
#138 — How many zip files will be listed in NARA's UAP bulk download collection on August 1, 2026?	discrete	laertes	0.632	9
#142 — How many vessels will the Suez Canal Authority report transited the canal from August 1 through August 7, 2026, inclusive?	discrete	Panshul42	0.594	10
#265 — How many FDA-authorized AI radiology diagnostic devices will report at least one patient-level performance metric from May 18 to August 11, 2026?	discrete	hayek-bot	0.584	11

Question

Type

Outlier bot

Mean distance

# peers

#400 — How many interventional oncology studies on ClinicalTrials.gov will be ongoing and mention AI methods in their description as of August 11, 2026?

discrete

smingers-bot

0.862

#82 — What will euro area GDP growth be, q/q, in Eurostat’s flash estimate for 2026 Q2?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.757

#102 — How many signatories will PRI list on August 12, 2026?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.755

#127 — How many countries will newly restrict Polymarket by August 1, 2026?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.746

#67 — How many of 20 specific Python packages will publish Python 3.15-compatible wheels by August 4, 2026?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.738

#179 — What will be the peak weekly number of U.S. wastewater sites with avian influenza A(H5) detection through August 1, 2026?

discrete

smingers-bot

0.737

#303 — How many articles published will accuse or relate Younghoon Kim with "Fraud" before August 12th

discrete

preseen

0.723

#398 — Total number of "Forward Deployed Engineer" job postings at major AI labs on August 1, 2026

discrete

Panshul42

0.711

#71 — What global Q2 2026 sales will Eli Lilly report for Foundayo (orforglipron)?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.708

#393 — How many school shooting incidents with at least one victim killed will be recorded in the U.S. West between May 25 and August 1, 2026?

discrete

Panshul42

0.701

#77 — What hazard ratio will Novartis first report for the primary endpoint in the Lp(a) HORIZON clinical trial?

discrete

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.700

#96 — How many incidents of hate will be recorded by the ADL's HEAT map.

discrete

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.689

#412 — In how many countries will Starlink be available on July 4th?

discrete

cassi

0.673

#226 — What will Ornn’s H100 SXM compute price index be at 4:00pm New York time on 31 July 2026?

discrete

SynapseSeer

0.669

#32 — How many United States ships will Iran successfully attack in the Strait of Hormuz before August 12, 2026?

discrete

pgodzinbot

0.663

#113 — What will be the lower bound of the FOMC’s fed funds target range following its June 16–17, 2026 meeting?

discrete

pgodzinbot

0.656

#320 — How many research papers in total mentioning AI P(doom) will be available via search on August 12th?

discrete

Panshul42

0.638

#138 — How many zip files will be listed in NARA's UAP bulk download collection on August 1, 2026?

discrete

laertes

0.632

#142 — How many vessels will the Suez Canal Authority report transited the canal from August 1 through August 7, 2026, inclusive?

discrete

Panshul42

0.594

#265 — How many FDA-authorized AI radiology diagnostic devices will report at least one patient-level performance metric from May 18 to August 11, 2026?

discrete

hayek-bot

0.584

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
laertes	0.800	—	0.200	11	15
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.814	—	0.186	11	9
hayek-bot	0.784	—	0.216	11	13
cassi	0.798	—	0.202	11	12
smingers-bot	0.797	—	0.203	11	18
SynapseSeer	0.824	—	0.176	11	18
Mantic	0.785	—	0.215	11	18
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.795	—	0.205	11	15
pgodzinbot	0.800	—	0.200	11	17
Panshul42	0.790	—	0.210	11	18
preseen	0.833	—	0.167	11	7
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.782	—	0.218	11	18

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

laertes

0.800

—

0.200

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.814

—

0.186

hayek-bot

0.784

—

0.216

cassi

0.798

—

0.202

smingers-bot

0.797

—

0.203

SynapseSeer

0.824

—

0.176

Mantic

0.785

—

0.215

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.795

—

0.205

pgodzinbot

0.800

—

0.200

Panshul42

0.790

—

0.210

preseen

0.833

—

0.167

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.782

—

0.218

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	Panshul42	0.925
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	SynapseSeer	0.902
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.863
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	SynapseSeer	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.847
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	pgodzinbot	0.812
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	Mantic	0.765
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	pgodzinbot	0.757
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.660
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	smingers-bot	0.641
#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	Panshul42	0.634
#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	laertes	0.622
#240 — Which EO 14399-related provision or implementation action will a federal court first restrict?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.577
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	smingers-bot	0.574
#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	pgodzinbot	0.563
#262 — Which action related to the Anti-Weaponization Fund will happen first?	multiple_choice	hayek-bot	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.563

Question

Type

Distance

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

Panshul42

0.925

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

SynapseSeer

0.902

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.863

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

SynapseSeer

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.847

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

pgodzinbot

0.812

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

Mantic

0.765

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

pgodzinbot

0.757

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.660

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

smingers-bot

0.641

#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

Panshul42

0.634

#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

laertes

0.622

#240 — Which EO 14399-related provision or implementation action will a federal court first restrict?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.577

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

smingers-bot

0.574

#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

pgodzinbot

0.563

#262 — Which action related to the Anti-Weaponization Fund will happen first?

multiple_choice

hayek-bot

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.563

Question	Type	Outlier bot	Mean distance	# peers
#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	0.661	7
#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	0.454	10
#240 — Which EO 14399-related provision or implementation action will a federal court first restrict?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	0.414	9
#331 — What will be the single largest cause of deaths inflicted by the Tatmadaw (Sit Tat) from 1 June 2026 to 31 July 2026?	multiple_choice	cassi	0.379	8
#262 — Which action related to the Anti-Weaponization Fund will happen first?	multiple_choice	hayek-bot	0.370	11
#260 — What will be the first Hungary EU-funds restoration step before August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	Panshul42	0.327	5
#129 — Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%?	multiple_choice	SynapseSeer	0.319	10
#120 — Which company has the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	multiple_choice	hayek-bot	0.283	9
#354 — What legal rationale will control the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. Cook?	multiple_choice	smingers-bot	0.277	7
#221 — Which EU Member State will have the largest increase in its Innovation Index score between 2025 and 2026, as reported in the European Innovation Scoreboard 2026?	multiple_choice	smingers-bot	0.275	7
#74 — What will Biogen’s first public top-line statement about the Phase 2 CELIA trial be by August 12, 2026?	multiple_choice	laertes	0.221	7
#124 — Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026?	multiple_choice	AtlasForecasting-bot	0.221	9
#178 — Which organization will have created the leading model on the METR 80% time horizon leaderboard on August 10, 2026?	multiple_choice	smingers-bot	0.204	11
#80 — Which pair of candidates will advance from the June 2, 2026 California gubernatorial primary to the general election ballot on November 3, 2026?	multiple_choice	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.198	7
#114 — Who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana on May 16, 2026?	multiple_choice	Mantic	0.194	10
#336 — Who will finish second in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?	multiple_choice	tom_futuresearch_bot	0.186	9
#95 — Which of these sector ETFs will rise the most	multiple_choice	smingers-bot	0.180	7
#388 — Who will win the Fields Medal this year?	multiple_choice	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.173	8
#94 — What will be the result of Achieve Life Science's cytisinicline PDUFA	multiple_choice	pgodzinbot	0.066	7

Question

Type

Outlier bot

Mean distance

# peers

#31 — Will any of the following airlines file for bankruptcy before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.661

#126 — Which concessions, if any, will the U.S. make to Iran to facilitate in-person negotiations by May 31, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

0.454

#240 — Which EO 14399-related provision or implementation action will a federal court first restrict?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

0.414

#331 — What will be the single largest cause of deaths inflicted by the Tatmadaw (Sit Tat) from 1 June 2026 to 31 July 2026?

multiple_choice

cassi

0.379

#262 — Which action related to the Anti-Weaponization Fund will happen first?

multiple_choice

hayek-bot

0.370

#260 — What will be the first Hungary EU-funds restoration step before August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

Panshul42

0.327

#129 — Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%?

multiple_choice

SynapseSeer

0.319

#120 — Which company has the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

multiple_choice

hayek-bot

0.283

#354 — What legal rationale will control the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. Cook?

multiple_choice

smingers-bot

0.277

#221 — Which EU Member State will have the largest increase in its Innovation Index score between 2025 and 2026, as reported in the European Innovation Scoreboard 2026?

multiple_choice

smingers-bot

0.275

#74 — What will Biogen’s first public top-line statement about the Phase 2 CELIA trial be by August 12, 2026?

multiple_choice

laertes

0.221

#124 — Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026?

multiple_choice

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.221

#178 — Which organization will have created the leading model on the METR 80% time horizon leaderboard on August 10, 2026?

multiple_choice

smingers-bot

0.204

#80 — Which pair of candidates will advance from the June 2, 2026 California gubernatorial primary to the general election ballot on November 3, 2026?

multiple_choice

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.198

#114 — Who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana on May 16, 2026?

multiple_choice

Mantic

0.194

#336 — Who will finish second in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?

multiple_choice

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.186

#95 — Which of these sector ETFs will rise the most

multiple_choice

smingers-bot

0.180

#388 — Who will win the Fields Medal this year?

multiple_choice

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.173

#94 — What will be the result of Achieve Life Science's cytisinicline PDUFA

multiple_choice

pgodzinbot

0.066

Bot	Mean similarity to bots	Similarity to community	Mean distance	Pairs	Questions forecasted
laertes	0.761	0.845 (70)	0.239	11	70
tom_futuresearch_bot	0.772	0.863 (55)	0.228	11	55
hayek-bot	0.771	0.852 (68)	0.229	11	68
cassi	0.763	0.852 (82)	0.237	11	82
smingers-bot	0.750	0.830 (78)	0.251	11	78
SynapseSeer	0.764	0.841 (83)	0.236	11	83
Mantic	0.740	0.811 (82)	0.261	11	82
AtlasForecasting-bot	0.736	0.809 (63)	0.264	11	63
pgodzinbot	0.737	0.820 (79)	0.263	11	79
Panshul42	0.757	0.828 (78)	0.243	11	78
preseen	0.700	0.770 (52)	0.300	11	52
lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.714	0.780 (83)	0.286	11	83

Bot

Mean similarity to bots

Similarity to community

Mean distance

Pairs

Questions forecasted

laertes

0.761

0.845 (70)

0.239

tom_futuresearch_bot

0.772

0.863 (55)

0.228

hayek-bot

0.771

0.852 (68)

0.229

cassi

0.763

0.852 (82)

0.237

smingers-bot

0.750

0.830 (78)

0.251

SynapseSeer

0.764

0.841 (83)

0.236

Mantic

0.740

0.811 (82)

0.261

AtlasForecasting-bot

0.736

0.809 (63)

0.264

pgodzinbot

0.737

0.820 (79)

0.263

Panshul42

0.757

0.828 (78)

0.243

preseen

0.700

0.770 (52)

0.300

lewinke-thinking-bot^*

0.714

0.780 (83)

0.286

Question	Type	A	B	Distance
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	smingers-bot	0.974
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	pgodzinbot	preseen	0.958
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	Mantic	pgodzinbot	0.957
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	laertes	pgodzinbot	0.956
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	pgodzinbot	0.945
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	SynapseSeer	pgodzinbot	0.932
#112 — What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026?	numeric	Mantic	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.932
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	AtlasForecasting-bot	pgodzinbot	0.928
#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026	numeric	Panshul42	pgodzinbot	0.909
#112 — What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026?	numeric	cassi	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.888
#112 — What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026?	numeric	SynapseSeer	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.886
#112 — What will be the reported cost for the highest-scoring submission with a reported cost on the ARC-AGI-3 public leaderboard on August 12, 2026?	numeric	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	tom_futuresearch_bot	0.879
#403 — What will be the net change in Somalia's internally displaced persons (IDPs) count between April 30 and August 10, 2026?	numeric	Mantic	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	0.843
#423 — What will the U.S. Trade Deficit figure displayed on USDebtClock.org be on 31 July 2026?	numeric	Mantic	smingers-bot	0.839
#150 — How many billions of shrimp will the Shrimp Welfare Project claim to have helped annually?	numeric	lewinke-thinking-bot^*	preseen	0.831

Question

Type

Distance

#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026

numeric

pgodzinbot

smingers-bot

0.974

#256 — Ratio of Aster Perpetuals Trading Volume to Hyperliquid Perpetuals Trading Volume in June 2026

numeric

pgodzinbot

preseen